Since the inauguration of President Donald J. Trump, we have witnessed what seem like weekly protests against the president, his policies and his words. The self-dubbed "Resistance" movement has spoken loudly that the 45th president is an affront to women, to immigrants, to the LGBTQ community, to the environment, to foreign policy, to teachers, to the poor, to the ill, to just about everyone and everything.
As part of this movement, all things Trump carry equal weight. A tweet is no different than a State of the Union address. A campaign rally is the same as an official state visit. All signal the end of days, the very destruction of our union and all we have held dear for the past 241 years.
But in waving the protest flags as high and as proudly as possible for each and every action, the Resistance is running a real risk of becoming a Chicken Little protest. Five months into Trump's presidency, and little has changed. Most of the policies he campaigned on are far from becoming law, not because of the Resistance but because of the president's own inability to move rhetoric into policy.
Even the crown jewel – the repeal of ObamaCare – has hit a significant roadblock largely of the president's political party's own making. The effort, though, points to the real challenge to the Resistance movement. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 40 percent of Americans want to keep ObamaCare. Another 40 percent want TrumpCare. And 20 percent have no opinion.
Anyone who has worked in politics knows that it is a constant battle for that 20 percent (usually closer to 10 percent who reliably don't know anything about everything). The Resistance will never speak to the 40 percent that will support everything that Trump does and says. But its words and actions currently only speak to the 40 percent that oppose Trump's very right to exist, and they show no signs of expanding that reach. And that becomes a real problem at the ballot box.
We all hope that those who have no opinion are paying attention to the rhetoric and vitriol. But what happens if they really do? In the lead up to the 2020 presidential election, what happens when they look back and see that women's rights are essentially the same under President Trump as they were under President Obama? What happens if the global warming needle hasn't moved? What happens if the number of deportations hasn't changed much? What happens when all the prophecies of potential horrors under President Trump fail to materialize?
And what happens if the absence of these actions occur as student test scores take a slight uptick, as the number of U.S. troops engaged in conflict declines, or as the economy continues to strengthen? What happens If there are no foreign terrorist attacks on U.S. soil during the President Trump era? Or if gas and grocery prices decline? What happens if, to answer the question famously posed by Ronald Reagan, those undecideds feel they personally are a little better off than they were a few years ago?
The Resistance is based on a negative frame, standing up against all that it sees as wrong and immoral. But it does so without putting forward a positive vision or an alternate plan. And it does so by insulting those individuals who voted the other way, attacking the very intelligence and morality of the average red voter. The Resistance is a protest movement. It makes no bones about that. But If those issues it pounds away on don't come to fruition, it appears as much ado about nothing to those not in the protest. It is merely a group of true believers providing comfort to other true believers.
Those 20 percent who have no opinion are likely not voting on LGBTQ issues or Planned Parenthood or the like. When they hear, day after day, week after week, month after month, that Trump is doing something to them, but they don't actually see or feel it, they begin to tune it out, particularly after being insulted for their previous votes. The Resistance becomes white noise, more of the same non-stop political attack rhetoric we all are growing so weary of.
Instead, those undecideds look inward. They look at their jobs, their personal healthcare and their kids. When they find they are drawing a paycheck, their health plan isn't much different than what they've long had, and their kids are attending the local college, they are able to overlook a lot of the noise, no matter how loud and persuasive it may be.
[PHOTOS: The Big Picture – June 2017]
More simply put, you can't win over pocketbook issue voters with social issues. If those voters remain employed, and see jobs for their kids, they are OK. If they feel safe and don't worry about their kids being sent off to a war halfway around the world, they seem doubly OK. And if their neighbors or fellow churchgoers are feeling the same way, then none feel the need to change horses midstream. That means the reelection of President Trump in 2020.
Yes, there is still a great deal of time between now and then. There are no guarantees those undecideds will feel good about their jobs or their security. But recent special elections need to be a wake-up call for the Resistance movement. If one cries that he political sky is falling one too many times, and all the undecideds see is a beautiful blue sky, the cries are tuned out. Forever.
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