The GOP Should Be Worried About Texas

Responding to a series of recent polls showing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton within striking distance in Texas, Real Clear Politics has moved it from a "lean red" to "toss up" state. In this memorable political year, the apparent move of Texas from red to purple state has to be considered one of the more significant and unexpected developments, particularly since Clinton and the Democratic National Committee have made no effort to put the state in play.

It is hard to overstate the importance of Texas to the national Republican Party. It is the only big state left in the country that Republicans regularly win at the presidential level. It produced the only two Republican presidents since Reagan, and has produced many more important national Republicans, such as Tom DeLay, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry and John Cornyn. It exports hundreds of millions of dollars to GOP organizations and candidates across the country. And perhaps most importantly, there are more Republicans in Congress from Texas than any other state, and many of them are in positions of leadership. Losing Texas, or even having it become competitive, would be a significant blow to the national GOP.

They better get ready.

Key to President George W. Bush's narrow victories was his success in heavily Hispanic states. Over the course of two elections he won Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Texas twice, and New Mexico once. As the Hispanic population has surged throughout the country, and become about two to one Democratic along the way, these states – with the exception of Texas – have drifted away from the GOP.

Today, Clinton leads in the five states other than Texas, and the Trump campaign isn't even competing in Colorado or New Mexico. And we all know the story of California, the first state to go through this demographic transformation. The state which helped birth the modern conservative movement and gave us the two Republican presidents prior to the Bushes – Reagan and Nixon – is on the verge of seeing its Republican Party go out of business.

According to the Pew Research Center, the number of of Hispanics eligible to vote has increased from 19 million in 2008 to 27 million today, and is increasing by about 1 million every year. Growth is expected to continue at this pace for decades, leaving many of the states mentioned above with a plurality or even majority of voters who are Hispanic. Today, at slightly more than 28 percent, Texas has the second highest share of eligible voters who are Hispanic of any state in the nation, and is the only state with a sizable Hispanic population that isn't blue or purple. And its share of Hispanic voters is far higher than many of the states that have already drifted towards the Democrats, and even higher than deep-blue California.

Texas, however, has never seen the investment by national Democrats nor a Pete Wilson/Prop 187-like event for Democrats to realize the potential of the underlying demographics of the state. The closeness of Texas this year suggests that the Trump candidacy may be acting as a Wilson-like catalyst, turning many Hispanics into active Democratic voters. A new CBS/YouGov poll of Texas found evidence of this, with Hispanics scoring higher levels of intensity and vote intent than either African-Americans or whites, and giving Clinton a 61 percent to 31 percent lead over Trump. This more engaged and active Hispanic electorate will not only affect coming statewide races. Twelve Texas Congressional seats currently held by Republicans are in districts that are 15 percent or more Hispanic (of eligible voters, not just population), and five are 25 percent or more. With a far more active Hispanic electorate, few of these seats will be able to be considered safe in future years, putting the entire Texas GOP House power structure and the GOP majority itself in jeopardy.

Looking ahead to 2017, these numbers suggest the national immigration community should consider making major investments in Texas. Getting this all important delegation, with many of the most influential leaders of the restrictionist camp, to soften its opposition to a Clinton-led reform effort out of fear of an activated Hispanic population could be the final missing piece for the pro-reform movement. In the same CBS/YouGov poll cited above, Texans choose options for undocumented immigrants to stay rather than leave by 61 percent to 39 percent, signaling that the people of Texas are in a far more pragmatic place than most of their leaders.

But another demographic trend that is bringing dramatic change to American politics should also concern Republicans about the future of Texas – the rise of the millennials. Since 2008, the number of voting age millennials in America has increased from 35 million to 70 million. To put this in perspective, the average Congressional district now has 160,000 millennials, with 80,000 of them having turned voting age since Barack Obama was elected president. Like Hispanics, millennials have been voting about two to one Democratic. Assuming a 50 percent turnout rate, these new voters represent 6 million net new votes for Democrats since the 2008 election, an amount equal to about 10 percent of Obama's 2012 vote and a million more votes than Obama's margin over Romney. This is no small thing.

Texas has a lot of millennials. By the 2018 election, Texas will have the fourth highest percentage of millennials of any state in the country, and a higher percentage than any large or medium sized state. Coupled with the growth of the Hispanic community in Texas, this millennial surge has created dramatic demographic change and added millions more Democratic voters. In that new CBS/YouGov poll, Trump was only getting 27 percent with voters aged 18 to 29 – in Texas!

Remarkably, Texas has a higher percentage of both millennials and Hispanics today than California, suggesting that with a significant investment in the coming years Texas could indeed follow California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and now Arizona from red to blue.

We knew it was coming. But 2016 may be the year that the Republican Party started to finally lose it grasp on its most important state. In a year of bad news for Republicans, this news about Texas may be about as bad as it gets.