Trump Strong Approval Down Among Republican Base

President Donald Trump says his base "is far bigger & stronger than ever before," but recent polling shows his strongest supporters are growing less so.

A new CNN poll published on Monday is the latest indication that Trump's base is eroding, as indicated by the shrinking number of Republicans who say they "strongly" approve of the president's job performance.

In the survey taken Aug. 3-6, the number of Republicans who say they strongly approve of Trump's job performance has dropped to 59 percent, 14 points down from February.

The drop is significantly driven by disillusionment among whites without a college degree, a group that was key to Trump's victory in November. In February, 47 percent of non-college whites said they strongly approved of the president's job performance; now, just 35 percent say the same.

When taking into account all respondents, Trump's strong approval in August is 24 percent, a drop of 9 points from February. Meanwhile, 47 percent say they disapprove strongly, a figure that has increased 4 points in the first six months of Trump's presidency.

Other polls in recent weeks have reflected a similar drop in Trump's strong approval from his own party.

Trump's attention to his base, both in his tweets and in policies that seem aimed at shoring up support of his most-loyal supporters, comes as his overall approval ratings remain historically low and as Republicans openly discuss other candidates for president in 2020.

Even it if decreasing in fervency, Trump's support among Republicans remains relatively normal, with 83 percent of Republicans saying they approve of the president's job performance in the latest CNN poll.

But some research indicates those numbers may also be softer than they appear.

A working paper published by Emory University suggests that party identification may be artificially inflating Trump's support among Republicans, in that those who previously identified as Republicans may stop doing so over their disapproval of Trump. The paper cites Gallup data finding a 4-point drop in the Republican Party identification since the election – people who the polls would "miss" because they don't track how individuals' opinions change over time.

According to a Pew Research Center survey from April, among those who were Republicans as recently as December 2015 but not in April 2017, 57 percent strongly disapproved of Trump.