If U.S. and South Korean leaders are seriously considering taking pre-emptive military action against North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile facilities – known as the "Kill Chain" strategy – is such a move scientifically and technically feasible for South Korea?
Yes – but likely not in the next two years.
According to experts, only the United States has the scientific and technical capability to launch "Kill Chain" right now. The potential for pre-emptive military action against North Korea, which has continued to test its nuclear capabilities despite repeated warnings from both the United States and China, has taken on new urgency in recent weeks.
"Kill Chain" is the first pillar of the new, pre-emptive military strategy designed to meet North Korea's nuclear missile ambitions that was first referenced in a South Korean government strategy paper released late last year. It involves using satellite reconnaisance to identify when and where North Korea is manufacturing missiles and nuclear warheads, and a pre-emptive strike capability to destroy those facilities before they go operational.
Moon Jae-In, however, South Korea's new president has publicly expressed reservations about such a pre-emptive military approach, and has indicated a preference for a diplomatic approach to North Korea. President Donald Trump, on the other hand, continues to hint at the need for a military solution. The two men met at the White House on Friday, and the "Kill Chain" was almost certainly discussed. During joint remarks in the Rose Garden, Trump said he has lost patience with North Korea.
The second and third prongs of South Korea's defense strategy include missile defense and retaliatory strikes from aircraft in the event North Korea launches a missile. They include the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, and the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMRR) plan. KAMD is a controversial plan to develop a system to intercept short-range missiles. KMRR is a concept for destroying Pyongyang in the event of a North Korean nuclear first strike.
But it is the first and most dangerous part of the new military strategy – the "Kill Chain" – that has diplomatic observers worried. Such a pre-emptive strike would almost certainly lead to war – and not just any war, but regional nuclear war.
South Korea had originally planned to develop the scientific and technical expertise necessary to successfully implement a "Kill Chain" effort by the mid 2020s. But when North Korea claimed it had tested a miniaturized nuclear warhead in 2016, South Korea accelerated its timetable and began to see if it could lease satellite time from Israel or other countries. It wants to monitor activity inside its northern neighbor, according to Korea Times.
But after Trump won and he started tweeting his threats to North Korea, South Korea announced it was moving forward aggressively with a three-pronged military strategy to respond to a North Korean nuclear strike. The government considered a huge increase to its military budget built around the three pillars approach.
All three of South Korea's military pillars were built to be deployed a decade from now. But in its December 2016 military budget, South Korean leaders proposed new levels of spending that accelerated their military plans by at least two years, and offered a much larger military budget designed to acquire dozens of cruise missiles. More importantly, they began to ask other countries whether they could share reconnaissance satellite time in order to determine the actual state of North Korea's missile and nuclear facilities.
It is this last request – the help from other countries as part of the "Kill Chain" military strategy – that clearly has others in the region worried. The missile defense system will take years to build, and may never actually work. The ability to strike back in the event of nuclear first strike has been a deterrence talking point for diplomats for a generation. It's why the United States maintains a robust military presence in and around the Korean peninsula.
But "Kill Chain" – should it become a real possibility – is something else altogether. It is precisely the sort of action that North Korea's military leadership constantly bangs the war drums about inside the closed country. If the United States or Israel equips South Korea with such an offensive capability, combined with real-time surveillance and monitoring of North Korea's manufacturing facilities, regional nuclear war is more than just a distant fear. It could become a real possibility.