Every Friday, I post a new E-mail chat with a forward-looking thinker about the road ahead. Today, our prescient Friday Forward prognosticator is Thomas Frey, founder of the DaVinci Institute, a futurist think tank in Louisville, Colo. Frey, a former engineer at IBM, is also the publisher of the Impact Lab, which Popular Science magazine recently rated as one of the "top 5 science blogs in the known universe."
Next News: Today's exploration of science and technology
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Next News: What trends—technological, social, economic, business, or political—do you see developing over the next 10 to 25 years that the average person today has little awareness of?
Frey: In the past, global systems have taken decades, even centuries, to develop. Most existing global systems are clunky in their operation, each having to struggle through a maze of conflicting regulations as they cross from one jurisdiction to another. Few global standards are in place, and only a select few have a global authority for dispute resolution. Many people are quite vocal in their opposition to anything that sounds like globalism; however, the driving forces behind global systems will be based on the opportunities they create. Each new global system will be worth hundreds of billions of dollars to the business communities they represent, and political fortunes will be won and lost in the process.
The following are some examples of global systems that we will see in the future:
Global accounting standards for publicly traded companies. Establishing globally accepted accounting standards will mitigate many of the past problems and tend to stabilize confidence in countries around the world.
Global currency. The first global currency will be established as a digital reference point, a global standard.
Global intellectual property system. A coalition of worldwide intellectual property agencies will begin to establish the first global intellectual property system.
"Whole Earth" ownership project. Most wars begin as land disputes. Creating a global authority to establish and record property ownership will go a long way towards resolving disputes. The "Whole Earth" ownership project will be centered on a comprehensive database of land ownership records linked directly to countries around the world.
Global tax code. With national tax codes creating complex impediments to the free flow of commerce, a new simplified global standard tax code will emerge to better manage the difficulties of monitoring a fluid population engaged in borderless economies.
"Whole Earth" genealogy project. Even though there have been failed efforts in the past to consolidate the earth’s genealogy, none have been officially sanctioned. [Designed to achieve] the best possible balance between the need for personal privacy and the vast array of useful data that a system like this can provide, a true global effort will begin to consolidate all genealogical information on all humans. Some other future global systems can be seen at http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com /stages-of-globalism.php.
Next News: Any others?
Frey: Within the next 10 years the income tax system in the United States will be dismantled. A number of emerging new forces coupled with the universal dislike of the system will soon gain enough of a toehold to cause it to collapse. While a new tax system will need to emerge in its wake, the exact form of the replacement system will depend on the political party in power at that time. More on this topic can be seen at http://www.futureofmoneysummit.com /collapse-of-income-tax.php.
Next News: The nation-state, as we know it today, has only been around for roughly 350 years. It is ludicrous for us to think that it will still be around 1,000 years from now. So if it is going to change, how is it going to change, and when is it going to change?
Frey: Emerging forces in globalism has given rise to the notion of creating "virtual countries," countries without land and without borders. Citizens of virtual countries will live in existing land-based countries, abide by their laws, and, at the same time, hold two or more citizenships. More on this topic can be seen at http://www.davinciinstitute.com /the-virtual-country.php.
Another trend is personality services. Dr. William Crossman, the director for the Institute for the Study of Talking Computers and Oral Cultures, has stated that within 10 years we will be throwing away our keyboards and we will talk back and forth to our computers. The problem with talking to a computer is that computers today have no personality. Consequently, we should be preparing ourselves for an onslaught of personality services that we can download into our computers. As an example, for $10 per month your computer could have a David Letterman personality. If you're not a big fan of Letterman, perhaps a Tom Brokaw personality, or Oprah, or Dilbert. Each personality service would be updated daily so it is fresh and new and well versed on the topics of the day.
Next News: What kind of computer do you have?
Frey: The computer I use has been an evolving beast. My original computer was born in 1995, and my son Darby and I have been adding and subtracting parts ever since then. None of the original parts still exist. Last year I finally got rid of the 5.25-inch floppy drive. We had a small funeral for it.
Next News: What is the most recent electronic device that you have purchased?
Frey: XM Radio.
Next News: What magazines or Web sites do you read that the average person may not have heard of?
Next News: What is the last book you read that you gave you some insight into the road ahead and why?
Frey:Future of Money and Of Human Wealth: Beyond Greed & Scarcity, both by Bernard Lietaer. Money is the highest leverage point of change in the world, and Bernard gives new insight into the forces of change that will soon be stressing out our existing systems. The Brave New World of Health Care by Richard Lamm. He's asking not only the ethical questions but also the affordability questions. With our current technology, can we afford to have the average life expectancy rise to 100?
