Every Friday, I post a new E-mail chat with a forward-looking thinker about the road ahead. Today, our prescient Friday Forward prognosticator is technology futurist and consultant David Smith of the firm Technology Futures in Austin. Smith, who has over 30 years of business experience, has worked with such organizations as the Central Intelligence Agency, Coca-Cola, Eastman Kodak, and Sun Microsystems.
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Next News: What technological trends do you see developing over the next 10 to 25 years that the average person today has little awareness of?
Smith: The most overlooked trend is that of pervasive microelectronic-based devices. This takes many different forms, from pervasive computing and ubiquitous communications to telemetry and remote sensor/diagnostic devices. For example, the average person today isn’t aware that if they’re driving a car built in the past 10 years, they are in essence driving a networked supercomputer. The application of pervasive computing is invisible to the average driver. As a further example, TFI often asks people who hear our speeches if they can name a device that requires electricity and costs more than $50 that does not contain a semiconductor device. Uniformly, the results are that they cannot come up with one. . . . And most people are totally unaware of the device-to-device communications. Examples of these include toll road transducers, appliance diagnostics, and even your home alarm system. This trend will accelerate during the next 15 years to the point where every device that is attached to a network (not just the Internet) will become a server. Wireless hand-held pcs are gaining market share; our appliances are becoming smart. We can track our children and workers over the Web by the devices they carry. Even our pets are becoming computers.
Next News: What trends do you often hear talked about but think may not play out the way people expect—if at all?
Smith: Future PCs will not be based on the fastest logic chips. While Moore’s Law [currently defined as the doubling of transistors per square inch of integrated circuits every 18 months] is a fundamental driver of the industry, newer approaches such as clusters, Web services, and converged devices will allow most classes of users to do without the fastest processors. Even games are going to be affected as more and more become multiuser, network based. Today, laptops outsell desktops even though they are not as powerful. . . . [Also] the future growth of the Internet and the ISPs [Internet service providers] will be built not only on access and free Web sites but also on sites that charge for access and provide content, services, and products at a cost. Because of the massive problems with discovery of information and the determinations of value and truth, more people will take up the pay sites.
Next News: What kind of computer do you have?
Smith: I have a Dell Latitude notebook and Dell desktops. My next notebook will be one with a 17-inch screen and many other communication options. My current notebook has wired Ethernet, wired phone, wireless 802.11b/g (office, home, and T mobile), and wireless CDMA (Sprint PCS).
Next News: What is the most recent electronic device that you have purchased?
Smith: A wireless UHF microphone and a DVD recorder.
Next News: What magazines or Web sites do you read that the average person may not have heard of?
Smith: A service called Individual.com. It is an online service that lets me select topics and sources that meet my needs, but can change as fast as my needs do.
Next News: What is the last book you read that you gave you some insight into the road ahead, and why?
Smith:The Death of e and the Birth of the Real New Economy: Business Models, Technologies & Strategies for the 21st Century by Peter Fingar and Ronald Aronica. This book realizes that the "new economy" is past. We are working on what we believe is the "future economy." This book is one of the better published examples about the end of the new economy. [Another is] High St@kes, No Prisoners: A Winner’s Tale of Greed and Glory in the Internet Wars by Charles H. Ferguson, founder of Vermeer Technologies, creator of Microsoft FrontPage. The industry is recovering, and IPOs are on the up beat. This book looks at what went wrong and how not to repeat the past or, as we say, [how to] plan for the future by looking out the windshield and not just the rearview mirror.
