Does the President have his party's nomination for '76 all locked up–or does Ronald Reagan still have a chance? A size-up by Paul L. Martin, the magazine's political editor
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Ronald Reagan will give President Ford a tough fight for the Republican presidential nomination, tougher than White House aides and many party leaders are predicting.
That's the conclusion drawn from polls and extensive political soundings around the country.
As of now, these soundings suggest:
• The President has a built-in advantage in any direct confrontation with Reagan. Ford, as the incumbent, controls the power and patronage of the White House, commands media attention and has the majority of party leaders on his side.
• But Reagan has a strong support among rank-and-file Republicans and party workers–the people who may well be delegates to the next Republican Convention. If he becomes a full-fledged candidate and wages a vigorous campaign in the primaries next year, he could cut deeply into the Ford lead.
• Finally, a lack of zip in the economy could make the President vulnerable to a challenge–and an upset–by Reagan.
As a Reagan strategist sees it: "If Ford falters in the primaries and Reagan looks good, party leaders can turn around fast."
A growing certainty. Doubts that Reagan will decide to run against the President now are fading. In the view of John P. Sears, the Reagan campaign manager: "Reagan will run. He will make his intentions clear before the end of this month. A formal announcement will follow in November. That will set the tone of the Reagan campaign: We are not going to be divisive; we do intend to discuss issues."
Even before any announcements, Reagan has been on the road, keeping in the limelight. Since leaving the California Governor's office last January, he has spoken or appeared in 30 States.
A financial statement to be filed soon with the Federal Election Commission shows that Reagan backers have contributed more than $400,000 in the last two months. These contributions are spread out in enough States to qualify Reagan for federal subsidies in a pre-Convention drive if he decides to run.
Political analysts cite a number of polls suggesting that Republican support for Ford is wide but not very deep.
• The Gallup Poll in September reported that the Ford "performance in office this far is viewed by the public as lackluster." The study found approval of Ford to be "lukewarm," with "mild approval" outweighing "strong approval" by a 3-to-2 margin.
• In the South, a seven-State canvass by Darden Research Corporation, of Atlanta, showed 45.2 per cent of Republicans backing Ford, compared with 40.1 per cent for Reagan.
• A poll taken by the Patrick Caddell organization in New Hampshire among Republican voters at the time of the State's election for a U.S. Senate seat also showed a narrow edge for Ford–36 per cent to 30 per cent for Reagan, with 34 per cent undecided.
Such a slender lead at this stage of the race, before any Reagan announcement, is regarded by political observers as unimpressive for an incumbent.
