As election year 1966 begins–Republicans show new confidence, now predict marked gains in November elections.
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But: In this campaign, Republicans start from the lowest point in nearly 30 years. Few expect a real turnover.
Trends will be watched, however, for clues to 1968. This is a report on those trends, with a look at key races of '66.
Voters in November, 1966, will get a chance to change the direction of their Government. The program of Lyndon Johnson is to be laid on the line in a mid-term congressional election.
All 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 members of the Senate are to be elected. In 35 States, Governors and other State and county officials will be chosen.
What happens in 1966 will give a clue to the presidential election of 1968.
Republicans are confident that they will hit the comeback trail this year. From visits to constituents they returned to Washington filled with bounce and enthusiasm for the campaign ahead. Many of them report that a new tide is moving in their direction.
But they start the upward struggle from the lowest point they have held in either house of Congress since their great defeat by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.
State Governors. In the statehouses, Republicans are outnumbered by Democrats about 2 to 1. Democrats have 33 Governors; Republicans have 17. Democrats have more than 5,000 members of State legislatures; Republicans have a few more than 2,500. In only four States do Republicans control both houses of the legislature.
At these levels, Republicans are combing the countryside for good candidates for 1966. They are mounting strong campaigns for Governor in California, Hawaii and such historically Republican States as Vermont, New Hampshire, Nebraska and Iowa. In some of these States, however, party divisions have not yet been bridges and the problems are difficult.
House. In the House of Representatives, there now are 293 Democrats, 141 Republicans, and 1 vacancy in North Carolina that is sure to be filled by a Democrat in a special election. The ratio in the House is more than 2 to 1 Democratic. This helps to account for the impressive list of new laws that Mr. Johnson managed to put on the books in 1965.
Believing that a reaction is occurring in the country, Republicans are hoping to win in November a minimum of 40 seats now held by Democrats. This still would leave them 37 seats short of the 218 needed for control of the House. But the fighting would be tougher. Now and then, they would get help from Southern Democrats. It would be harder for the President to get approval of his proposals.
Senate. On the Senate side of the Capitol, the membership is 68 Democrats and 32 Republicans. Again the ratio is more than 2 to 1 Democratic. Of the 35 Senators whose terms expire with this year, 21 are Democrats and 14 are Republicans.
To collect the 51 Senators needed for control of that branch of Congress, Republicans would have to add 19 members to their present total. This means that they would have to make a clean sweep of Senate elections in every State except two–Republican and Democratic, North and South. No one expects anything like this to happen.
