In Florida, at the top of the ballot, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is projected to coast to an easy re-election over the Republican nominee, Rep. Katherine Harris, whose campaign has been marred by several overhauls of her staff, a lack of support from high-profile fellow Republicans (including Gov. Jeb Bush), and controversial statements by the congresswoman herself. The national spotlight shone on Harris after the 2000 election when she, as Florida secretary of state, was at the center of the Bush-Gore fight over ballot counting there. Two years later, she won election to the House from a Tampa-area district. Nelson was once on the Republican target list but has sailed through as Harris's campaign shipwrecked. Among House races, Republicans' biggest problem is Mark Foley's former district, where state legislator Joe Negron was whisked in as the replacement nominee after Foley resigned in disgrace in late September. The Foley resignation took place too late for the ballot to be changed, so Negron must convince constituents that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. Otherwise, self-financed Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney will win. There are two or three other possible Democratic pickups, including Harris's open seat.

In New Hampshire, which sends two members to the House, the focus is on the western seat, held by moderate Republican Rep. Charles Bass, whose Democratic challenger, Paul Hodes, has scored well in recent polls. The district has leaned Democrat in recent elections. John Kerry won it 52 percent to 47 percent in 2004. But the six-term Bass, who unseated a Democrat in 1994, is a formidable incumbent who usually gets nearly 60 percent of the vote.