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Posted at 6:19 PM ET by Kent AllenThe polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. A handful of close GOP-held House seats are at stake.
While Indiana has essentially been a Republican state for the past half century (only LBJ in '64 secured its electoral votes for the Democrats), the southern part has seen very close races for Congress. Indeed, in the Evansville-based district in 1984, incumbent Democrat Frank McCloskey was declared the victor over GOP state Sen. Rick McIntyre by only four votes. The post-election fight was so contentious–in fact, the Indiana secretary of state at one point certified McIntyre as the winner by 34 votes–that McCloskey did not even assume his seat until four months after Congress had convened.
Until recently, Kentucky had been less dependably Republican. Jimmy Carter took it in '76, and Bill Clinton won both of his races in the Bluegrass State. But George W. Bush has won it in his two elections, with 57 and 60 percent. This year, three of the state's four congressional districts that front the Ohio River mirror the competitive presidential contests of the past 30 years. Of particular interest is the Louisville-based district represented by Republican Anne Northup, a five-term incumbent whose 60 percent showing in 2004 is the only election in which she has exceeded 53 percent of the vote.
In Indiana, Republican Sen. Richard Lugar faced nominal opposition in his bid for a sixth term. With the partisan split likely to be very close in the new Senate, Lugar, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, may serve as an honest broker between competing factions about what to do in Iraq, the Middle East, and North Korea. The former mayor of Indianapolis is 74.
When we get some good, interpretable numbers from the House races, we'll share them with you.
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