"The polling shows that we are right where we'd like to be going down to the wire," says Murphy, who also holds the lead in fundraising in the campaign.

Republican Gerlach, meanwhile, has picked up the endorsement of the Chester County Fire Chiefs Association, a group that Gerlach was quick to champion as first responders.

The campaign has continued to focus on national issues as much as domestic ones, with both candidates eager to localize and nationalize different aspects of the contest. Murphy's campaign, for example, makes much of Gerlach's solidarity with an unpopular president, while trying to localize issues like the jobs market. Gerlach, on the other hand, has distanced himself from President Bush on issues like immigration but has been quick to trumpet national economic successes.

As ballot days draws near, the contest will very likely hinge on Iraq. "The closer that voters connect Iraq with the war on terrorism, the better Republicans, like Gerlach, will do," a campaign strategist tells U.S. News. "If the public sees the war in Iraq as unconnected with the war on terrorism, then things could go much worse for the Republicans."

–Alex Kingsbury