Arizona's Eighth is considered Republican, but only moderately so. Republicans hold a 5 percentage-point advantage over Democrats in voter registration, but a whopping 24 percent of the district is registered as independent. President Bush carried the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2004, but Kolbe has made it clear he thinks a highly-conservative candidate could turn off more moderate voters. Immigration will be crucial in the contest: Randy Graf has already earned some staunch supporters by emphasizing his anti-guest-worker stances. The district is based in Tucson but also includes Cochise County, a ranching community that was among the first to welcome the Minutemen, a citizens group that has patrolled the border and has pushed for strict border security laws.