As John McCain and Barack Obama toured states President Bush won in 2004, media reports suggest Obama has a clear edge as voters head to the polls today. As the New York Times reports, "The candidates are fighting the final round of the campaign almost exclusively on Republican turf, in states from Florida to Missouri to Nevada." The AP reports that yesterday, "Obama radiated confidence and...McCain displayed the grit of an underdog Monday as the presidential rivals reached for the finish line of a two-year marathon with a burst of campaigning across battlegrounds from the Atlantic Coast to Arizona." The Washington Post reports Obama seeks "a history-making victory in a presidential campaign that has captivated the country as few others ever have," and "maintained a clear advantage over Republican John McCain yesterday as the two made final appeals in battleground states." The Washington Times reports "Obama continued to hold the momentum -- leading his Republican rival in crowd counts and in nearly every poll -- and told voters, 'We have a righteous wind at our backs.'" McCain, "his voice hoarse as he stumped across seven states, expressed his own confidence."
The CBS Evening News showed McCain saying in Florida, "They may not know it, but the Mack is back! And we're going to win this election." CBS reported that "from Florida," McCain "set off on a zigzag course through seven battleground states, to the southwest border of Virginia, to western Pennsylvania, Indiana, and New Mexico. ... At each stop, he tells supporters victory is within reach if they get out the vote." The Washington Post reports on its front page that McCain is "hoping to produce the kind of comeback that has pulled his candidacy from the ashes before. ... Senior adviser Mark Salter called him 'relaxed, energetic, cheerful and determined.'" ABC World News showed Salter saying, "Most of the work is done. All of the ads have been bought, the speech has been written, the schedule has been planned. But we've got to go out and execute today, and the turnout operation has got to execute for us tomorrow."
Fox News' Special Report noted that McCain also "made his final offensive incursion into the blue state of Pennsylvania...where aides say blue collar undecided white voters are breaking toward McCain, even if some polls still show him trailing." The Washington Times similarly reports, "The political pros say they'll be watching to see whether Pennsylvania goes red Tuesday -- if so...McCain might pull off one of the greatest comebacks in political history and be on his way to the White House."
On Election Day, final polls of "likely voters" continue to forecast a comfortable victory for Barack Obama in the presidential race.
The Hotline/Diageo tracking poll of 907 likely voters taken October 31-November 2 shows Obama up 50%-45%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll for November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-46%, up from a 51%-46% lead the day before.
The IBD /TIPP daily presidential tracking poll of 981 likely voters taken November 1-3 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-42%. TIPP estimates that the final result of the election, after the allocation of the undecided voters, will be 51.5% for Obama and 44.3% for McCain.
The Battleground tracking poll of 800 likely voters taken October 29-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-44%.
A Fox News /Opinion Dynamics poll of 971 likely voters taken November 1-2 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-43%. Commenting on the poll, Fox News' Special Report reported, "Obama has gained on key issues nationally." He "has enlarged his lead on the economy and healthcare; while holding it on taxes. McCain, on the other hand, has lost ground on Iraq and terrorism."
An Ipsos /McClatchy poll of 760 likely voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-46%. Reporting on the poll, McClatchy says "Obama leads among men by 6 points and women by 9 points. He leads among voters 34 and younger by 18 points, and among those 35 and older by 4 points. He leads among Hispanics by 31 points, blacks by 94 points and other minority races and ethnic groups by 54 points." McCain "leads among non-Hispanic whites by 11 points, and in the South."
A Marist University poll of 804 likely voters taken November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-43%.
The ABC News /Washington Post daily presidential tracking poll of 2,470 likely voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-44%.
The C-Span/Zogby daily presidential tracking poll of 1,205 likely voters taken November 1-3 shows Obama leading McCain 54%-43%.
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The New York Times reports, "At least one broadcast network and one Web site said Monday that they could foresee signaling to viewers early Tuesday evening which candidate appeared to have won the presidency, despite the unreliability of some early exit polls in the last presidential election." The Times adds, "A senior vice president of CBS News, Paul Friedman, said the prospects for" Obama or McCain "meeting the minimum threshold of electoral votes could be clear as soon as 8 p.m. - before polls in even New York and Rhode Island close, let alone those in Texas and California." Likewise, the Los Angeles Times reports that if Obama "racks up victories in key Eastern and Midwestern states Tuesday night, television viewers will probably hear that he appears headed for victory even before the polls close in the West." But "officials at the broadcast and cable networks, as well as the Associated Press, said Monday that they would not project a president-elect until one of the candidates has at least 270 electoral votes in his column. And they won't award any electoral votes from a state until after all the polls in that state are scheduled to close."
However, in the Washington Post, Howard Kurtz writes that "if Obama fails to capture a handful of key states by 8 p.m. or so, then...McCain has a shot at getting to the magic 270 and everyone could be in for a long night. For those keeping score, the biggest early bellwethers are the once reliably Republican states of Virginia and Indiana -- where polls close at 7."
McCain Camp Says Exit Polls Weighted Toward Democrats The Hill reports, "Concerned that early exit poll results could dissuade voters from casting their ballots for GOP presidential nominee John McCain, his campaign said in a memo Monday that such polls are weighted toward Democrats."
Florida Polls Show Tight Race A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 1,000 likely Florida voters taken November 2 shows McCain leading Obama 50%-49%. A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 1,200 likely Florida voters taken October 31-November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-47%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 691 likely Florida voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-47%. A C-Span/Zogby poll of 585 likely Florida voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-48%.
Polls Split In Ohio A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 1,000 likely Ohio voters taken November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-45%. A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 1,200 likely Ohio voters taken October 31-November 2 shows McCain leading Obama 48%-46%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 660 likely Ohio voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-46%. A C-Span/Zogby poll of 687 likely Ohio voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-47%.
Obama Up In 3 Pennsylvania Polls A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 1,200 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 31-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-44%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 657 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 31-November 3 shows McCain leading Obama 52%-43%. A C-Span/Zogby poll of 682 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-41%.
Three Polls Show Race Tied In Missouri A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 1,000 likely Missouri voters taken November 2 shows the race tied at 49%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 674 likely Missouri voters taken October 30-November 2 shows the race tied at 48% apiece. A C-Span/Zogby poll of 585 likely Missouri voters taken October 31-November 3 shows the race tied at 48%.
Obama Up In Three Virginia Polls A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 1,000 likely Virginia voters taken November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-47%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Virginia voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-47%. A C-Span/Zogby poll of 690 likely Virginia voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-45%.
Polls Split In North Carolina A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 1,000 likely North Carolina voters taken November 2 shows McCain leading Obama 50%-49%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-48%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 682 likely North Carolina voters taken October 30-November 2 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-48%. A C-Span/Zogby poll of 585 likely North Carolina voters taken October 31-November 3 shows the race tied at 49%.
Obama Up 4 In Colorado A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 1,000 likely Colorado voters taken November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-47%.
Obama Up 11 In Nevada A C-Span/Zogby poll of 586 likely Nevada voters taken October 31-November 3 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-42%.
McCain Up 5 In Indiana A C-Span/Zogby poll of 585 likely Indiana voters taken October 31-November 3 shows McCain leading Obama 50%-45%.
McCain Up In Three Georgia Polls A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 800 likely Georgia voters taken October 31-November 2 shows McCain leading Obama 50%-46%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 683 likely Georgia voters taken October 30-November 2 shows McCain leading 52%-45%. An InsiderAdvantage poll of 512 likely voters taken November 2 shows McCain leading Obama 48%-47%.
McCain Up 11 In West Virginia An American Research Group poll of 600 likely West Virginia voters taken October 31-November 3 shows McCain leading Obama 53%-42%.
Obama Up 13 In Wisconsin A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 800 likely Wisconsin voters taken October 31-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-40%.
Obama Leads In Two Washington Polls A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 800 likely Washington State voters taken October 31-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 55%-40%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 663 likely Washington State voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 56%-40%.
The AP reports that Sen. Barack Obama "came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on." Obama bested Sen. John McCain "by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch," while "Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul."
McClatchy reports Sen. Barack Obama's "grandmother has died in Hawaii, his campaign announced." The AP notes "Obama announced the news from the campaign trail in Charlotte, NC," as "tens of thousands of rowdy supporters at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte grew silent in an evening drizzle." The CBS Evening News said Obama "soldiered on through a rally in Jacksonville, Florida, and with a heavy heart is about to engage in yet another here in Charlotte, North Carolina. You could tell by the grim look on Barack Obama's face that something was wrong."
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In another indication of the rapid evolution of the Treasury Department's economic bailout plan, the Wall Street Journal reports the Treasury "is considering using more of its $700 billion rescue fund to buy stakes in a broad range of financial companies, not just banks and insurers, after tentative signs of the program's success, according to people familiar with the matter." The sources said the focus is on "companies that provide financing to the broad economy, including bond insurers and specialty finance firms such as General Electric Co.'s GE Capital unit, CIT Group Inc. and others."
The New York Times reports the Bush Administration's "$700 billion rescue of the financial system" has become "an ambitious, increasingly embattled program." Given "vast authority and almost no restrictions in the bailout law that Congress passed a month ago, a committee of five little-known government officials, aided by a bare-bones staff of 40, is picking winners and losers among thousands of banks, savings and loans, insurers and other institutions."
In one significant development, the Financial Times reports Wall Street firms "will pledge not to use the recent $125bn cash infusion from the US government to pay bankers' bonuses in an effort to defuse the mounting political furore over compensation at battered financial groups." Wall Street executives "say that banks will pay bonuses from earnings and existing cash resources, like in previous years, and use the government capital for acquisitions and to replenish their depleted balance sheets."
USA Today reports lawmakers are calling for closer scrutiny of the compensation structure on Wall Street as concern grows that the same banks that are taking American taxpayers' money will hand out only a slightly pared version of the usual plump bonuses."
Banks Tightening Lending Standards The AP reports banks "tightened the spigots further on all sorts of lending, from home mortgages to credit cards and business loans, as the worst financial crisis in seven decades took a bigger toll on the economy." The Federal Reserve "said Monday that its latest quarterly survey of bank lending practices found high numbers of banks reporting tighter credit standards across a broad range of loan products. Nearly 60 percent of banks responding to the survey said they had tightened lending standards on credit card debt." The Financial Times reports the Fed reported "US banks have pulled back on lending to consumers and businesses in a big way over the past three months, as demand for credit also dwindled."
The AP reports, "Manufacturers, already hit by mounting job losses, saw business plummet to the lowest level in 26 years in October. Sharply lower auto sales and shrinking construction spending, meanwhile, provided more evidence the US has entered a recession that may be deep and prolonged." The Washington Post reports Abiel Reinhart, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, called the report "very negative," adding that it "probably does spell a deep recession."
USA Today, meanwhile, says "fearful consumers avoided auto dealerships in October, sending US sales to their lowest levels in more than 25 years. ... Automakers sold just 838,156 new vehicles in October, the second consecutive month below 1 million." The Wall Street Journal reports that Michael DiGiovanni, "GM's top sales analyst," said in a conference call that "when adjusted for increases in the US population, last month was 'the worst month in the post-World War II era. ... This is clearly a severe, severe recession.'"
The AP notes "Japanese companies weren't immune from the carnage, with Toyota Motor Corp. sales down 23 percent despite a zero-percent financing offer. Honda Motor Co.'s sales dropped 25 percent and Nissan Motor Co.' sales tumbled 33 percent." The Detroit News, Detroit Free Press, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times and New York Times run similar stories. The New York Times says "the grim results...raised new concerns about the chances of survival for Detroit's troubled Big Three," and "add to the steady march of statistics that suggest the broader economy is grinding to a slower pace."
In other economic news, the AP reports, "The Commerce Department said construction spending fell by 0.3 percent in September, less than the 0.8 percent decline many economists expected."
Gen. David Petraeus, the US commander for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, yesterday met with Pakistani officials in Islamabad. ABC World News reported Gen. Petraeus "was told that US airstrikes against militants in Pakistan are counter-productive because they are fanning anti-American feelings there."
The AP reports that Petraeus, who met with President Asif Ali Zardari, army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani "and other officials," told CNN International "he had heard criticism over the US attacks on militant targets on the Pakistani side of the border with Afghanistan" during the talks.
McClatchy reports that "Pakistani leaders, frustrated that they're unable to curb US missile strikes on Pakistani territory, publicly reproached" Petraeus. The New York Times reports that during his visit Monday, Petraeus "heard one message wherever he turned: American airstrikes against militants in the tribal areas are unhelpful."
Also reporting on Petraeus' visit Monday, the Washington Post notes that "with casualties at record highs among foreign troops in Afghanistan, and security in decline in Kabul...and across the country, Petraeus's efforts to resuscitate the flagging military mission there will be as closely watched by Pakistan as they are by the United States."
However, David Ignatius writes in the Washington Post that "behind the stepped-up Predator missions in recent weeks is a secret understanding between the United States and Pakistan about the use of these drones."
Did Afghan Officials Aid Taliban Attack? The New York Times reports on its front page that "an internal review by the American military has found that a local Afghan police chief and another district leader helped Taliban militants carry out an attack on July 13 in which nine United States soldiers were killed and a remote American outpost in eastern Afghanistan was nearly overrun." As "evidence of collusion between the district police chief and the Taliban, the report cited large stocks of weapons and ammunition that were found in the police barracks in the adjacent village of Wanat after the attackers were repelled."
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Jay Leno: "According to all the studies, somewhere between 8 and 14% of voters are still undecided." Do "these morons" need "another year to figure this out? 'Gee, I wonder where my candidate stands on UFO abductions. I'm going to wait.'"
Jay Leno: "I understand the networks...are playing it very, very cautiously. You know, they don't want to show any favoritism. In fact, MSNBC announced today they're not even going to declare Barack Obama the winner until after the votes are counted."
Jay Leno: "It seems fewer and fewer illegals are crossing the border because they can't find jobs. ... See, President Bush does have an immigration policy. It's called his economic policy."
David Letterman: "They're saying now that weather could play a huge part in the campaign. ... For example, in order for McCain to win tomorrow, hell has to freeze over."
David Letterman: "Today, Barack Obama campaigned in Florida and Virginia." McCain also "campaigned in two states, panic and desperation."
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