The Los Angeles Times reports, "After almost two years of constant cross-country campaigning, the presidential election has come down to a flurry of appearances in several key states." Barack Obama and Sarah Palin "are crisscrossing Ohio," while "GOP standard-bearer John McCain returned to Pennsylvania, whose 21 electoral votes are seen by his strategists as up for grabs in Tuesday's election." The Washington Post, on its front page, reports that in Ohio, "Both sides expect a close finish, something of a paradox in a struggling state in a year in which the poor economy is driving support for Obama and other Democrats. Ohio lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs this decade and its median income has dropped by 3 percent, yet polls show Obama with no more than a narrow lead in a state that Sen. John F. Kerry lost to Bush by two points." NBC Nightly News said Obama is "hoping for a win here in Ohio, but not desperate for one." Obama "spent more time in Ohio than any other state since winning the nomination, but it's a state he doesn't necessarily have to win with. A loss in electoral-rich Ohio, and even one in Pennsylvania, could be offset by wins in places like North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana."
The Wall Street Journal reports "McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said Pennsylvania, which Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, will be the most important state to watch Tuesday." The CBS Evening News described the Keystone state as one "where McCain insists he is surging." But McCain "offers no hard evidence, and the most recent polls show McCain trailing in Pennsylvania by anywhere from four to 12 points." USA Today adds that in Pennsylvania, McCain's "closing arguments began and ended with proposals to help the struggling economy. He said he wants to slash government spending, while Obama would expand government. McCain said he will cut taxes while Obama and a Democratic Congress plan to raise them."
The AP reports Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain "uncorked massive get-out-the-vote operations in more than a dozen battleground states Sunday, millions of telephone calls, mailings and door-knockings in a frenzied, fitting climax to a record-shattering $1 billion campaign. Together, they'll spend about $8 per presidential vote." The Wall Street Journal adds, "The national and state Democratic parties are spending far more heavily than their Republican counterparts on field operations, after years of ceding the advantage in ground-level organizing to the Republican voter-turnout machine." Adds the Journal, "Finance records show Democrats have hired five to 10 times more paid field staff in swing states than the Republicans." The Los Angeles Times, in a story titled "In Ohio, Obama's Ground Game Outguns McCain's," reports from Delaware, OH, that McCain "has targeted this wealthy area just north of Columbus as one of 15 counties in Ohio where he needs to drive up his vote tally if he is to beat Barack Obama on Tuesday in this must-win state." But "on Friday night, only nine volunteers manned the 24 phones in the McCain campaign office." In contrast, "Obama's campaign...has flooded this Republican bastion with volunteers."
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One day before the election, all national polls continue to show Barack Obama leading John McCain in the race for the White House, even if the size of Obama's lead continues to vary in the different national surveys. Media analyses of the polling data, however, strongly suggest the Illinois senator is poised for a decisive victory in tomorrow's election. On the CBS Evening News, for example, Jeff Greenfield said it is possible to "concoct a scenario where McCain wins all of the battleground states" and "steals Pennsylvania, if that's the right word, and ekes out an electoral college win -- even though he runs several million behind in the popular vote. This is highly unlikely," though it's "not impossible." The AP says "state surveys suggest the Democrat's path to the requisite 270 electoral votes -- and perhaps far beyond -- is much easier to navigate than McCain's." McClatchy reports "the two campaigns' moods were markedly different" as the campaign enters its final day, with "McCain and his team...defiant" while "Obama and his surrogates exuded confidence." The Financial Times says "a clutch of polls showed...Obama's lead widening into the double digits," and "Republican pundits, many of whom have been predicting disaster for weeks, said there was little hope Mr McCain could turn the situation round."
The IBD /TIPP daily presidential tracking poll of 884 likely voters taken October 29-November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-45%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll for November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-46%.
The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,800 registered voters taken October 31-November 2 has two likely voter models one (based on past voting behavior and current intention to vote) shows Obama leading McCain 53%-42%, while the second (based on current intention to vote) shows Obama up 53%-42%.
The Hotline/Diageo tracking poll of 904 likely voters taken October 30-November 1 shows Obama up 50%-45%.
A Pew Research poll of 2587 likely voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading 52%-46%.
A CNN/Opinion Research poll of 714 likely voters October 30-November 1 shows Obama up seven points, 53%-46%.
The C-Span/Zogby daily presidential tracking poll of 1,205 likely voters taken October 31-Nov. 2 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-44%.
On its front page, the Wall Street Journal reports "a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds the Democrat with an eight-percentage-point advantage, down from the 10-point edge he held last week. " The poll, "conducted Saturday and Sunday," found Obama ahead 51%-43%.
The ABC News /Washington Post daily presidential tracking poll of 2,172 likely voters taken October 29-November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 54%-43%.
USA Today reports that according to a USA Today/Gallup poll, "Obama beats Republican John McCain by 53%-42% among likely voters, the biggest lead since they emerged as the likely nominees in March. While presidential races typically tighten in the final days, the USA TODAY survey shows this one widening." The poll surveyed 3,050 adults from October 31-November 2.
A CBS News poll of 507 likely voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading 54%-41%.
McCain "Obsessed" With Polls That Give Him Hope, Obama Confident The New York Times reports McCain "has liberated himself from the irritable, edgy candidate of a month ago. He has, by all appearances, decided he will get to Tuesday by having a good time." Adds The Times, "His aides say he is relieved that the race is almost over and for the most part out of his hands. He is also buoyed -- and obsessed, his staff says -- with polls that show the race tightening in some battleground states and allow him hope that he might still have a shot." The Washington Post adds, "To hear the senator's campaign tell it, McCain is precisely where he wants to be in the final stretch. Never mind that Barack Obama is up ahead and sprinting." On the other side of the aisle, the New York Times, under the headline "Even Keel For Obama In Final Turn To Election," says Obama's "sober expression seemed at odds with the confident gleam in the eyes of his advisers."
McCain Up 2 In Ohio A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely Ohio voters taken October 28-29 shows McCain leading Obama 47%-45%.
Four Polls Show Obama Up In Pennsylvania A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 28-29 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-43%. A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely Pennsylvania voters taken November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-46%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 29-31 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-45%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 700 likely Pennsylvania voters shows Obama leading McCain 51%-44%.
Obama Has Narrow Edge In Two Florida Polls A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely Florida voters taken October 28-29 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-45%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Florida voters taken October 29-31 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-46%.
Three Polls Show Obama Up In Virginia A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely Virginia voters taken October 28-29 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-44%. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey of 1,557 likely Virginia voters taken October 31-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-46%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 672 likely Virginia voters taken October 30-November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-46%.
Obama Up In Two Colorado Polls An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Colorado voters taken October 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-45%. A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely Colorado voters taken October 28-29 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-44%.
Obama Up 4 In Nevada A Las Vegas Review-Journal /Mason-Dixon/NBC News poll of 625 likely Nevada voters taken October 28-29 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-43%.
Polls Show Tight Race In Missouri An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Missouri voters taken October 28-30 shows the race tied at 48%. A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely Missouri voters taken October 28-29 shows McCain leading Obama 47%-46%.
Obama Up 3 In Minnesota A SurveyUSA automated poll of 669 likely Minnesota voters taken October 30-November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-46%.
McCain Up 3 In North Carolina A Mason-Dixon /NBC News poll of 625 likely North Carolina voters taken October 28-29 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-46%.
Race Tied In Indiana An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Indiana voters taken October 28-31 shows the race tied at 48%.
McCain Up 3 In Montana An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Montana voters taken October 28-30 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-46%.
Obama Up In Pair Of New Hampshire Polls An American Research Group poll of 600 likely New Hampshire voters taken October 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 56%-41%. A University of New Hampshire /WMUR poll of 831 likely New Hampshire voters taken October 30-November 2 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-42%.
Obama Up 7 In New Mexico A SurveyUSA automated poll of 664 likely New Mexico voters taken October 29-31 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-45%.
McCain Up 4 In Arizona An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Arizona voters taken October 28-30 shows McCain leading Obama 50%-46%.
McCain Up 7 In Arkansas An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Arkansas voters taken October 28-31 shows McCain leading Obama 51%-44%.
Obama Up 24 In California A SurveyUSA automated poll of 637 likely California voters taken October 29-31 shows Obama leading McCain 60%-36%.
McCain Up 16 In Kentucky A SurveyUSA automated poll of 616 likely Kentucky voters taken October 29-November 1 shows McCain leading Obama 56%-40%.
Obama Up 13 In Maine A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Maine voters taken November 1 shows Obama leading McCain 56%-43%.
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President Bush, burdened by low poll numbers, has taken a low profile in the presidential race between John McCain and Barack Obama. NBC Nightly News reported Sunday that First Lady Laura Bush is "set to stump for votes in Kentucky. And while she has been out helping candidates, the President has been notably absent." In the "polls, the President is dead weight. According to NBC News pollsters, a majority of Americans have disapproved of Mr. Bush's job performance for the past 40 months." And in "these final weeks, even as he prepares to hand over a crowded inbox of problems to his successor, the President can't help but seem a wee bit relieved." The Washington Post also says the President is "in virtual hiding through Election Day," leaving it "up to Vice President Cheney and first lady Laura Bush to pick up the slack on the campaign trail." Bush "has remained largely silent, which is just fine with the McCain campaign."
Meanwhile, Newsweek notes that "Bush bashing is nearly as popular among Republicans as it is among Democrats. ... Yet those who know the president well say he has withstood the attacks with characteristic equanimity. Bush has never been one to torture himself with doubt or punish himself with what-ifs. Even in the darkest moments of his presidency...there were no hushed stories of a distraught president talking to the portraits in the West Wing."
The Wall Street Journal reports "history offers no clear lessons" on whether stocks will rally after the election, "but that doesn't stop investors from looking for some kind of sign in Tuesday's vote." Whether John McCain or Barack Obama "is elected, he will confront ugly economic challenges like Franklin D. Roosevelt did after his 1932 victory and Ronald Reagan did in 1980." The Dow Jones Industrial Average "rallied in Mr. Roosevelt's first year and fell slightly in Mr. Reagan's. Perhaps most important, the market posted big gains during their overall tenures, though it is unclear whether the main cause was their policies or the steep declines the market suffered before they took office."
NBC Nightly News reported that "people are increasingly focused on taxes as we approach the election, even though the stock market is not being dictated by the election at this point, and instead, really, the economic news of the day. The news last week that Senator Obama's tax increases will impact incomes of $164,000, I think, a year, has definitely unnerved people. Having said that, I think just getting the election out of the way will be a positive for the stock market, it's one more uncertainty we need lifted from the market so that the stabilization, I believe, that is beginning, that we saw last week, may very well resume."
Treasury Nixes GM Merger Aid Request The New York Times reports the Treasury Department "has turned down a request by General Motors for up to $10 billion to help finance the automaker's possible merger with Chrysler." Instead of "providing new assistance, the Treasury Department told G.M. on Friday, the Bush administration will now shift its focus to speeding up the $25 billion loan program for fuel-efficient vehicles approved by Congress in September and administered by the Energy Department."
The CBS Evening News reported GM "reportedly suspended merger talks with Chrysler on Friday after the Federal Government rejected a request for a $10 billion loan to facilitate the deal. The right decision, say some analysts." Maryann Keller, auto analyst: "I don't think that the Treasury should be in the business of facilitating a merger."
UAW To Play Role In Fate Of GM-Chrysler Merger. The Wall Street Journal reports the United Auto Workers union "has so far said relatively little about a merger of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, but now appears set to emerge as a key player in the fate of any deal." The union, "people familiar with the matter said, recently retained a former adviser to GM Chairman Rick Wagoner to help 'level the playing field' in any discussions about changes in its current contract that could be needed in a tie-up of the two auto makers."
The US is quickly turning over security duties in Iraq to that country's security forces. Time reports that "so far, the U.S.-led coalition has turned over security responsibilities to Iraqi forces in 13 out of 18 provinces. And the Bush Administration is trying to seal a deal with the Iraqi government that...would enable the U.S. to pull America's 152,000 troops out of Iraq's cities and towns by July of next year and out of the country entirely by 2012."
U.S. News and World Report reports from Ramadi: "The shattered province of Anbar is home to a much different conflict -- a nation-building assignment in the most pure sense -- where the military is reconstructing hospitals and courthouses and standing up indigenous forces so that they can better patrol their own streets."
U.S. News and World Report reports Col. Ahmed Hamid Sharqi "was many things -- businessman, smuggler, policeman for Saddam Hussein. Now, the U.S. marines stationed here consider him one of their greatest assets in keeping the streets of the capital of Anbar province -- only recently some of the most dangerous in the world -- safe. Never mind that he wears a hatchet on his belt, a powerful reminder of the legend of how the commander of the North Ramadi police district attained his post -- reportedly hacking to death members of Al Qaeda in Iraq in the streets."
Meanwhile, U.S. News and World Report reports from Naquib, Iraq: "Flying several hundred feet over the Diyala River basin in eastern Iraq, it's not difficult to see why one government leader here calls it a disaster area. Shattered remains of houses dot the landscape. ... The destroyed homes are the result of one of Al Qaeda in Iraq's latest strategies -- converting homes into bombs, or 'house-borne improvised explosive devices,' as they've been dubbed. ... Over the past year, some 60 dwellings were destroyed by AQI."
Security Talks Expected After Election The AP reports Iraq "expects an American response to requested changes in a draft security pact soon after this week's US presidential election, an aide to the prime minister said Sunday." Meanwhile, "another Iraqi official said the US indicated it would accept all the proposed changes except one -- greater Iraqi legal control over American soldiers and contractors."
Another AP report notes that "Iraqis are following this week's US election, but the big news...is the effort to forge a new security agreement that would keep American troops here for most of the new president's first term."
Meanwhile, the Washington Times reports the Bush Administration is "looking to the UN Security Council to extend a mandate for U.S. troops to remain in Iraq beyond Dec. 31 -- a move that would require Iraqi government cooperation but not Iraqi acceptance of a bilateral accord with Washington." The "shift in strategy follows the Iraqi government's submission last week of several proposed changes a draft status of forces agreement (SOFA) being negotiated with the US."
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Jay Leno: "I had two kids come by for Halloween, one dressed as Mickey Mouse, the other dressed as an ACORN volunteer trying to register him to vote."
Jay Leno: "Hey, did you see Barack Obama on the news? He took time out to take his kids trick-or-treating," but he would "only let them take candy from households making over $200,000 a year."
David Letterman: "You know what I like about Halloween is bobbing for apples," or "as Dick Cheney likes to call it, 'apple boarding.'"
David Letterman: "Halloween" is "the dead walking among the living. That's what Halloween is. You know, they come back the life and they're dead, but they're walking around. No, wait a minute, that's the McCain campaign."
Craig Ferguson: "John McCain is struggling to get crowds at some places. For a speech yesterday, he bussed in 4,000 school kids to fill the stands," but the plan "backfired" when the "kids wanted to know why Santa was so angry."
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