The New York Times on its front page notes recent polls and asks "is it really over?" McCain aides "-- as well as some outside Republicans and even a few Democrats -- argue that he still has a viable path to victory. ... Here are what Mr. McCain's advisers are watching hopefully (and Mr. Obama's are watching warily) as the contest enters its final days." The McCain camp hopes to win in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The GOP campaign also hopes for a lift from the "Joe the Plumber" issue, and from Sen. Biden's "prediction that a foreign power would test Mr. Obama with a crisis in the first months of his presidency. That remark goes to what has been the heart of Mr. McCain's argument about the need for the next president to have experience." On its front page, the Washington Post reports "the Republican nominee's path to the presidency is now extremely precarious and may depend on something unexpected taking control of a contest that appears to have swung hard toward...Obama since the end of the debates." In her Wall Street Journal column, Peggy Noonan writes that while Sen. John McCain lags in the polls as Election Day approaches, the race is "not over." Noting that 43%, on average, of those surveyed in national polls still back McCain despite a dismal situation for the GOP, Noonan calls the group "the beating heart of conservatism," and adds, "They will not give up without a fight, and they will make their way to the polls. And they will be a rock-hard challenge to Mr. Obama if he wins."
Top GOP Strategists Already Criticizing McCain Campaign Meanwhile, The Politico, in an article touted repeatedly on MSNBC last night, reports that a McCain interview published Thursday in the Washington Times "sparked the latest and most nasty round of Washington finger-pointing, with senior GOP hands close to President Bush and top congressional aides denouncing the candidate for what they said was an unfocused message and poorly executed campaign."
All national polls continue to show Barack Obama leading John McCain in the race for the White House. However, the size of that lead varies widely. As the AP reports, "Obama is galloping away with the presidential race. Or maybe he has a modest lead. Or maybe he and...McCain are neck and neck. Confusing? Sure, thanks to the dueling results of recent major polls."
The IBD /TIPP daily presidential tracking poll of 1,068 likely voters taken October 18-22 shows Obama leading McCain 45%-44%.
The George Washington University Battleground poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 16 and October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-45%.
The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,799 registered voters taken October 20-22 has two likely voter models one (based on past voting behavior and current intention to vote) shows Obama leading McCain 50%-46%, while the second (based on current intention to vote) shows Obama up 51%-45%.
The Hotline/Diageo tracking poll of 782 likely voters taken October 20-22 shows Obama up 48%-43%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll for October 23 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-45%.
The C-Span/Zogby daily presidential tracking poll of 1,203 likely voters taken October 21-23 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-42%.
The ABC News /Washington Post daily presidential tracking poll of 1,335 likely voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 54%-43%.
A CBS News/NYTimes poll of 771 likely voters taken October 19-22 shows the largest lead of all, with Obama ahead by 13 points, 52%-39%. The CBS Evening News reported last night, "It is simple math, but a very difficult task: John McCain has just 12 days to make up a 13-point deficit in the presidential race." Also reporting on the poll, the New York Times says "Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls."
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State polls out in the last 24 hours shows Sen. Barack Obama with a significant lead in a number of Democratic-leaning battleground states. In the GOP-leaning battleground states, the situation is more confused with some polls showing Sen. John McCain holding small leads in key states such as Florida and Ohio, while others showing him trailing.
Ohio Polls Split A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 1,200 likely Ohio voters taken October 20-22 shows McCain leading Obama 48%-45%. A Big Ten Battleground poll of 564 likely Ohio voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-41%.
Florida Polls Also Split A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 1,200 likely Florida voters taken October 20-22 shows McCain leading Obama 48%-46%. A St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll of 800 registered voters taken October 20-22 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-42%.
Obama Up In 5 Pennsylvania Polls A SurveyUSA automated poll of 620 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 21-22 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-41%. A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 1,200 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 20-22 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-43%. A Big Ten Battleground poll of 566 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-41%. An Allentown Morning Call /Muhlenberg College poll of 602 likely Pennsylvania voters taken October 18-22 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-42%. A National Journal /Allstate poll of 412 registered Pennsylvania voters taken October 16-20 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-41%.
Obama Up 10 In Indiana A Big Ten Battleground poll of 586 likely Indiana voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-41%.
Obama Up 4 In Montana A Montana State University-Billings poll of 403 registered Montana voters taken October 16-20 shows Obama leading McCain 44%-40%.
McCain Up 5 In West Virginia An Orion Strategies/West Virginia Wesleyan poll of 500 registered West Virginia voters taken October 20-21 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-44%.
McCain Up 6 In Georgia A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 800 likely Georgia voters taken October 20-22 shows McCain leading Obama 51%-45%.
Obama Up 13 In Iowa. A Big Ten Battleground poll of 586 likely Iowa voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-39%.
Two Polls Show Obama Up 13 In Wisconsin A Big Ten Battleground poll of 584 likely Wisconsin voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-40%. A National Journal /Allstate poll of 405 registered Wisconsin voters taken October 16-20 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-40%.
Obama Holds Double-Digit Lead In Pair Of Minnesota Surveys A Big Ten Battleground poll of 583 likely Minnesota voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 57%-38%. A National Journal /Allstate poll of 402 registered Minnesota voters taken October 16-20 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-40%.
Obama Up Big In Two Michigan Polls A Big Ten Battleground poll of 562 likely Michigan voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 58%-36%. A Detroit News /WXYZ-TV poll of 400 likely Michigan voters taken October 19-22 by EPIC/MRA shows Obama leading McCain 51%-37%.
McCain Up 12 In Kansas A SurveyUSA automated poll of 613 likely Kansas voters taken October 21-22 shows McCain leading Obama 53%-41%.
Obama Up 29 In Illinois A Big Ten Battleground poll of 572 likely Illinois voters taken October 19-22 shows Obama leading McCain 61%-32%.
The Politico reports on the record level of early voting this year, suggesting that Election Day is becoming more of a "final deadline than a one-day event. ... In Georgia, almost 800,000 votes have been cast so far - already more than the tally in 2004 with over a week to go. By Thursday morning in North Carolina, more than 750,000 people had voted since the polls opened a week ago." Bloomberg News adds that Obama "has an edge in six of eight states that provide early-voting data by party registration, as Democrats, blacks and first-time voters cast ballots in unprecedented numbers. In North Carolina and Louisiana, which voted Republican in the last two elections, Democrats outnumber Republicans in early voting so far by a 2-to-1 margin." The AP reports, "Blacks are already surging to the polls in parts of the South, according to initial figures from states that encourage early voting - a striking though still preliminary sign of how strongly they will turn out nationwide for Barack Obama in his campaign to become the first African-American president."
ABC World News reported Sen. Barack Obama campaigned in Indiana yesterday, a state that is "normally...safe" for the GOP, but which Obama has "turned into a battleground." NBC Nightly News also noted Obama "started this day at a rally in traditionally red Indiana, which has turned into a surprising battleground state this year." The AP notes that Obama drew a crowd of 35,000 in Indianapolis. The Indianapolis Star says polls "have shown a tight race in Indiana. It's why Obama was making his second trip to Indianapolis this month, and why" Gov. Sarah Palin "will make her second trip to Indiana on Saturday, with a rally in Fort Wayne, where about 14,000 people are expected."
The Miami Herald reports that in Florida yesterday, Sen. John McCain "hammered" Sen. Barack Obama's "tax cut promises and his opponent's encounter with 'Joe the Plumber," referencing the now famous 'spread the wealth' remark more than half a dozen times at a morning lumberyard rally." McClatchy says that "it looks as if" McCain "wants to win the crucial battleground of central Florida by corralling as many 'Joe the Plumbers' as he can. McCain began a 'Joe the Plumber' bus tour Thursday with a stop in this north-central beach community and released an ad called 'I Am Joe.'" The CBS Evening News showed McCain saying, "We shouldn't be taxing our small businesses more as Sen. Obama wants to do." ABC World News reported McCain "ran the equivalent of a political marathon across Florida today, campaigning from Daytona Beach to Sarasota, making six stops in all. A measure of just how important Florida is to his chances for election."
The Wall Street Journal reports that Sen. Barack Obama, "hoping to widen his party's control of Congress, has started to lend support to down-ticket Democrats. The approach marks a shift in strategy for" Obama, "who until recently has shunned joint appearances with other candidates."
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Yesterday's appearances before the Senate Banking Committee by FDIC Chari Sheila Bair and Assistant Treasury Secretary Neel Kashkari, who is in charge of the Treasury Asset Relief Program, was swamped by the media's interest in Alan Greenspan's testimony before a House panel yesterday. ABC World News reported, "Bush Administration officials admitted today their programs are not doing enough to help millions of Americans struggling to stay in their homes." Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the FDIC: "Some of the voluntary efforts have helped, but not enough. We are falling badly behind. And more needs to be done." McClatchy says Bair "frequently challenged the Treasury Department to be more aggressive in helping to modify distressed mortgages and prevent foreclosures. ... 'Loan guarantees could be used as an incentive for servicers to modify loans,' she said, repeating a suggestion offered earlier in the week by current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke."
The Washington Post, in a front-page article, reports that the proposal "represents the most detailed idea yet on how the $700 billion federal rescue package might directly address the blight of foreclosures sweeping the nation." According to the Post, the FDIC's proposal "would vastly expand the role of the Treasury in standing behind the mortgages of struggling borrowers. The plan, which won a warm reception from some senators, comes as demands grow on Capitol Hill for an ambitious initiative to help distressed homeowners, whose ailing mortgages are at the root of the financial crisis."
TARP Reportedly "Stalled" The Washington Post reports the Treasury Department's "plan to buy mortgage-related assets from banks appears to have stalled, industry sources said. Banks say that basic questions about the plan remain unanswered. Applicants to serve as asset managers have received little additional information from the Treasury in about a week." However, Treasury officials "said yesterday that there would be no delay in the auction process."
AIG Exhausting Federal Credit Line The Washington Post reports, "The troubled insurance giant American International Group already has consumed three-quarters of a federal $123 billion rescue loan, a little more than a month after the government stepped in to save the company from bankruptcy. AIG has borrowed $90.3 billion from the Federal Reserve's credit line as of yesterday, the bulk of it to pay off bad bets the company made in guaranteeing other firms' risky mortgage investments."
The CBS Evening News reported last night, "There was more distressing news for the economy as layoffs continued to mount." The Labor Department releases new jobless claims numbers yesterday that showed new applications for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 last week. According to the AP, that is "already well into recession territory" and "rising even faster than expected, leading economists to warn Thursday that the worst is yet to come." Meanwhile, home foreclosure filings "jumped by 70 percent in the third quarter, according to the listing service RealtyTrac Inc. Nationwide, nearly 766,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice from July through September, the company said." The Wall Street Journal adds that Xerox Corp., General Motors Corp. and Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. "disclosed new job cuts Thursday, following layoff announcements earlier in the week by Chrysler LLC, Merck & Co. and Yahoo Inc., among others. ... While the job market has been deteriorating over the past year, analysts say employers are now beginning to eliminate jobs more quickly than in past downturns, in part because of the uncertainties created by the credit crunch and volatile financial markets." NBC Nightly News noted, "The colossal Wall Street investment bank turned regular bank Goldman Sachs is cutting 10% of its workforce, more than 3,200 jobs."
The Washington Post reports, "This also follows job cutbacks announced by several firms this week, including the drugmaker Merck, which said it would cut about 7,200 positions, and National City, a Cleveland-based bank, which plans to eliminate 4,000 jobs. Xerox said yesterday that it would cut 3,000 positions worldwide."
The AP also reports the White House warned that "the economy will remain gloomy through at least the end of the year, inching closer toward a recognition the United States is in a recession. 'We expect our GDP (gross domestic product) number next week not to be a good one and the next quarter to be tough as well,' White House press secretary Dana Perino said." The Commerce Department "will release its first estimate of third-quarter economic performance Oct. 30, and Wall Street analysts project it will show the economy contracted by 0.5 percent, according to Thomson/IFR."
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ABC World News reported that former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan "admitted he made mistakes that led to the current financial mess." Greenspan "was asked if he was responsible for the worst financial crisis in memory." Chairman of the House Oversight Committee Rep. Henry Waxman: "My question for you is simple. Were you wrong?" Greenspan: "Partially. ... I made a mistake in presuming [lending institutions] were best capable of protecting their own shareholders." According to the CBS Evening News, "In his nearly 19 years as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan was known for his cryptic pronouncements on the economy, but today he couldn't have been clearer." Greenspan: "We are in the middle of a once-in-a-century credit tsunami." NBC Nightly News described Greenspan as "an unabashed advocate of free market," whose critics claim "got a lot of things wrong. That he opposed regulation of the complex securities which helped cause the meltdown, kept interest rates low too long, helping create the housing bubble, and failed to move against signs of trouble, including a warning from a Fed colleague about predatory subprime lending."
According to a Washington Post front-page article, "The tough talk reflected a widening sense that some of Greenspan's apparent successes in managing the economy from 1987 to 2006 were in fact illusory, that they came at the cost of building the biggest credit bubble in world history." James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer "and a longtime critic of Greenspan," contends, "His reputation was as inflated as were house prices in the early 2000s and tech stocks in the late 1990s."
In what the US Embassy called "a positive step on the path to Iraq's self-reliance," McClatchy reports the US military "formally handed control over Babil province to Iraqi security forces during a ceremony Thursday morning in the once-violent central state." The Iraqi army and police, notes McClatchy, "are now responsible for security in 12 of Iraq's 18 provinces, though US forces continue to assist across the country." Speaking at yesterday's ceremony, "Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin, the No. 2 US commander in Iraq, said security gains in the province had been astonishing. He added, however, that not all of Iraq's enemies have been defeated." The Washington Post reports the province includes "most of what was called the Triangle of Death," where "thousands of people have been killed in sectarian clashes...during the past five years." AFP and the Washington Times run similar stories.
US Troops Cuts In Anbar? The AP reports the US commanding general in Iraq's Anbar province, Maj. Gen. John Kelly, yesterday "said he is 'very optimistic' that troop levels there can come down next year, but he warned that security gaps along the Syrian border and cells of al-Qaeda refugees still pose risks."
US-Iraq Pact Draft Leaked Fox News' Special Report reported that it "has obtained the final English version of the draft agreement," which states that "US forces shall withdraw from Iraqi territories no later than Dec 31st 2011." Fox said the withdrawal "is not conditions-based as US commanders had wanted." And "in terms of operations and detentions, US forces are not permitted to search houses and other properties without a court warrant from an Iraqi judge. When this agreement goes into effect, all detainees in US custody shall be released in a safe and organized fashion -- all 17,000 of them, unless the Iraqis ask they continue being held."
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Craig Ferguson: "The former chairman of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, was in Washington today. And he said that the current financial crisis is a 'one in a century' occurrence." And John McCain "was like, 'He's right. I've been through three of 'em.'"
Jimmy Kimmel: "With less than two weeks to go before" the presidential election, John McCain is "behind Barack Obama in every major poll. But here's the important thing to remember: Back in 1984, with the same amount of time remaining, Walter Mondale was 14 points behind Ronald Reagan and then by the time the election came, he went on to lose every state except Minnesota. So -- all right, well, maybe that's a bad example."
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