This morning's campaign coverage portrays the presidential race as having shifted decidedly in Sen. Barack Obama's favor, giving Sen. John McCain very little chance of picking up any states not won by President Bush in 2004. ABC World News described Obama's "aggressive tour of red states President Bush won twice, including Virginia tomorrow, Missouri Saturday, North Carolina Sunday and Florida Monday. Obama's also competing in red states Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia." The AP reports Obama "extended his front-running campaign into West Virginia, a bastion of white, middle-class voters who rejected his primary season appeals," buying ad time there. The Wall Street Journal notes that some West Virginia voters have already "been seeing television ads the Obama campaign has directed at markets in the swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, all of which border West Virginia."
On the other side of the aisle, NBC Nightly News reported, "Some senior Republicans are getting edgy at the prospect of a long uphill climb in a short amount of time just 19 days to go here until the election. ... McCain faces a greater challenge, spending valuable time and money defending states he has counted on winning, while Obama tries to expand his electoral map." The New York Times adds, "Confronting an increasingly bleak electoral map, top aides to Senator John McCain said Thursday that they were searching for a 'narrow-victory scenario' and would focus in the final weeks on a dwindling number of states." The Washington Post says McCain "may have stayed on the offensive during his final debate...but for the last 19 days of the presidential campaign he will be playing nothing but defense," and adds the RNC "will spend $18 million over 18 days in just eight states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Colorado. All but Pennsylvania voted Republican in 2004."
Race Tied In Ohio A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely Ohio voters taken October 14 shows McCain and Obama tied at 49%.
Obama Up 6 In Virginia A Christopher Newport University poll of 500 likely Virginia voters taken October 11-14 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-43%.
Obama Up 17 In Connecticut A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Connecticut voters taken October 14 shows Obama leading McCain 56%-39%.
Obama Up 13 In Oregon A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Oregon voters taken October 14 shows Obama leading McCain 54%-41%.
Obama Up 20 In New York A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely New York voters taken October 14 shows Obama leading McCain 57%-37%.
Allegations that voter fraud is being systematically committed by the liberal group ACORN broke fully into the national media in the last news cycle with reports that the FBI has an investigation underway. The AP reports that a "senior law enforcement official confirmed" to AP yesterday that the "FBI is investigating whether the community activist group ACORN helped foster voter registration fraud around the nation before the presidential election. ... A second senior law enforcement official says the FBI was looking at results of recent raids on ACORN offices in several states for any evidence of a coordinated national scam." The New York Times says some federal law enforcement officials "said privately that they were wary of being pulled into a highly partisan controversy so close to Election Day. The officials said their investigation of Acorn's activities would, for now, focus on reports of voter registration fraud that have surfaced in several states." The Kansas City Star reports, "Shawn Kieffer, the Republican director of the Kansas City Election Board, said Thursday the FBI plans as early as today to pick up copies of 600 to 800 'questionable' voter registrations at board headquarters."
McClatchy notes that confirmation of the FBI probe comes one "day after John McCain charged that the liberal-leaning voter registration group ACORN 'may be perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history,'" and reports, "Executive Director Michael Slater of Project Vote, which funds ACORN and represents it in legal matters, said the group has yet to be informed of any national investigation but would cooperate. Slater said that any suggestion that ACORN was orchestrating voter fraud was 'absolutely false.'"
Leak Of FBI Probe "Unacceptable," Conyers Tells Mukasey, Mueller The New York Times notes at the end of its story on the ACORN registration investigation, Rep. John Conyers Jr., "a Michigan Democrat who is the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, sent a letter Thursday to Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey and Robert S. Mueller III, the F.B.I. director, expressing 'shock and disappointment' that word of an investigation had leaked out. 'It is simply unacceptable,' Mr. Conyers wrote, 'that such information would be leaked during the very peak of the election season.'"
Ohio Voter Case May Be Headed For Supreme Court In a related story, the Wall Street Journal reports Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) "filed an appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court Wednesday, after the Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 9-6 on Tuesday that Ms. Brunner must notify election boards of all voter records containing information that doesn't match driver's license or Social Security databases." NBC Nightly News reported, "This has to do with something called the Help America Vote Act passed after the election mess in Florida 2000. It says that states have to check their voter registration databases against their driver license registration records and report any mismatches to the counties but Ohio is not doing this. So the Ohio Republican Party sued and complained the state is failing to detect potential voter fraud. ... Now even if this ruling stands, the state says nobody will be prevented from voting. But it is possible that somebody who is on one of these mismatches might have to cast a provisional ballot, one that would be set aside on Election Day" but "counted later once the discrepancy is resolved."
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Media attention has fallen furiously on Joe Wurzelbacher -- dubbed by political observers "Joe the plumber" following his prominent role in Wednesday night's debate. Reports last night and this morning paint a less than flattering picture of the Ohio plumber, raising questions about the veracity of some of what he told Sen. Barack Obama during their now famous encounter. The AP reports, "Joe the Plumber's story sprang a few leaks Thursday. Turns out that the man who was held up by John McCain as the typical, hard-working American taxpayer isn't really a licensed plumber. And court documents show he owes nearly $1,200 in back taxes." The Washington Post reports that Wurzelbacher "acknowledged to reporters that he did not have a plumber's license but said he did not need one to do residential work with the two-man Newell Heating and Plumbing Co., which does have a license," although a local official disagreed. The New York Times also reports on the results of the "celebrity-level scrutiny" being applied to Wurzelbacher, adding, "None of that is likely to matter to those who see Mr. Wurzelbacher as a symbol of the entrepreneurial spirit they hope to foster with tax cuts, but even Mr. Wurzelbacher said he was shocked by all the attention."
The AP examines whether Wurzelbacher would "pay more" taxes as a small business owner under Obama's tax plan, concluding, "There's no telling based on the scant facts that are known." Wurzelbacher "said the company brings in over $250,000 but has not said how much he would earn personally as the owner. It also depends on whether he files business taxes as an individual taxpayer, as many small businesses do, or takes a more complicated approach to avoid higher taxes."
Both Campaigns Try To Turn Plumber Story To Their Advantage The Wall Street Journal reports that after being referenced repeatedly during Wednesday's debate, "both sides rushed to embrace him on Thursday, even though the real Joe doesn't make a clear case for either political camp." Fox News' Special Report reported, "Joe the plumber's 15 minutes of fame have stretched now into a couple of news cycles and John McCain was still going on about the worker from northern Ohio today on the stump. ... Rallying central Pennsylvania, John McCain declared Joe the plumber the winner of the debate and in an exclusive interview...accused Barack Obama of, quote, 'class warfare.'"
National polls continue to show Sen. Barack Obama in the lead, but none of them today is showing a double-digit lead like Obama has posted recently.
The Hotline /Diageo tracking poll of 817 likely voters taken October 13-15 shows Obama up 49%-41%.
The Battleground daily presidential tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 9 and 12-15 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-44%.
The C-Span/Zogby daily presidential tracking poll of 1,210 likely voters taken October 14-16 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-44%.
The Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll for October 16 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-46%.
The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,786 registered voters taken October 13-15 has two likely voter models one (based on past voting behavior and current intention to vote) shows Obama leading McCain 49%-47%, while the second (based on current intention to vote) shows Obama up 51%-45%.
The IBD /TIPP daily presidential tracking poll of 884 likely voters taken October 11-15 shows Obama leading McCain 45%-42%.
Reporting on recent polls, the Wall Street Journal looks at their "divergence," saying that pollsters "are facing new challenges this year, trying to gauge whether the electorate is changing, and how much." The Journal adds, "Surveys giving Sen. Obama a large and growing lead tend to assume that a growing proportion of voters are Democrats, and a shrinking percentage Republicans. They also point to a big increase in turnout, particularly among voters under the age of 30. Surveys showing a closer race assume less change in party affiliation in particular."
ABC: Obama Holds "Double-Digit Lead In Most National Polls" Despite no current polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead, ABC World News led its broadcast last night reporting, "Two weeks, five days to go. Home stretch. Barack Obama and John McCain began today laying out their closing strategies. And while Obama continues to hold a double-digit lead in most national polls, it is the results in individual states that are all important. It is the ultimate map quest: The search for the 270 electoral votes needed to win. A goal that is at the moment, at least, seemingly within Obama's reach."
The Washington Post, in a front-page article, reports that Sen. Barack Obama "came to the Senate with an inkling that he might seek the presidency, friends said, but his ambition and self-confidence compelled him to run much earlier than he had anticipated. By August 2006, a little more than 18 months after arriving in Washington, he began asking people he had barely met what they knew about New Hampshire and Iowa. With an eye on his next goal, Obama treated the Senate as a bridge to be crossed -- a place to learn the conventions of Washington, win powerful friends and shape what advisers referred to as his 'political brand.'"
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The economy received less media attention last night and this morning than it has of late. Running its report on the stock market (which rallied yesterday), fourth in its news line up, NBC Nightly News referred to a "nauseating ride on Wall Street." ABC World News, in the fifth story of its broadcast, said the stock surge was prompted by "some good economic news today. Oil plunged to its lowest price in 16 months, down almost $5 a barrel. It closed below $70, less than half what it cost last July." AS The AP reports, "The Dow rose 401.35, or 4.68 percent, to 8,979.26, showing an 816-point swing from its low to its high of the session. The Dow remains up 528 points, or 6.3 percent, for the week." The Standard & Poor's 500 index "rose 38.59, or 4.25 percent, to 946.43, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 89.38, or 5.49 percent, to 1,717.71."
The Wall Street Journal says "economic reports out Thursday contained a few bright spots, including signs that US inflation is in check. But the overall picture that emerged was one of a reeling economy that may take considerable time to right itself." Adds the Journal, "Factory activity in the Philadelphia area slumped severely, and homebuilder sentiment remained at extremely depressed levels." The New York Times reports that "while the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week was slightly lower than expected, two Federal Reserve reports hinted at trouble in the manufacturing sector." One of them "showed that production at the nation's factories dropped by 2.8 percent in September, largely because of the two gulf hurricanes." Another report "showed factories in the Philadelphia area had the worst month for business in 18 years. The Philadelphia Fed index dropped to a minus 37.5 reading in October from September's 3.8 reading."
But not all was gloom and doom. The Wall Street Journal notes "the US consumer-price index was unchanged in September, the Labor Department said Thursday," underscoring "a growing belief inside the Fed that inflation pressures are easing, as many senior officials expected earlier this year. ... The Fed next meets on Oct. 28-29. US futures markets put high odds of at least a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Fed at its next meeting."
Reporting on the drop in oil prices, meanwhile, the New York Times says "the decline in oil prices could provide a form of stimulus to the economy as consumers pay less to fill up their tanks. If oil prices stay at current levels, consumers would have $250 billion more, over a year, to save or spend elsewhere." On its front page, the Los Angeles Times reports "natural gas and heating oil prices also are cratering, which would help with winter heating bills." More pessimistic is the Washington Post, which says that "the fact that sweet, light crude for November delivery fell to $69.85 a barrel yesterday, beating Tuesday's short-lived low of $74.54, is not the sign of good times; it's forecasting a recession."
Fox News' Special Report (10/16, Hume) reported, "Senior Administration officials tell Fox that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, are considering options for direct borrower assistance under the $700 billion rescue package approved by Congress. They're considering using some of the money in the soon to be formed Troubled Asset Relief Program...to possibly fund a new mortgage purchase entity, in order to directly refinance mortgages for qualified homeowners struggling to make monthly payments." Sheila Bair: "Everyone is committed to more aggressive foreclosure prevention and using a component of the TARP to do more direct intervention to reduce foreclosures. ... You will be seeing it shortly."
Will Banks Make Loans After Bailout? The New York Times this morning asks, "Will lenders deploy their new-found capital quickly, as the Treasury hopes, and unlock the flow of credit through the economy? Or will they hoard the money to protect themselves?" John A. Thain, who is the chief executive of Merrill Lynch, "said on Thursday that banks were unlikely to act swiftly. Executives at other banks privately expressed a similar view." The Washington Post, meanwhile, runs a front-page story titled "As Credit Tightens, Companies Curtail Spending, Expansion," in which it says "countless companies...are hunkering down to survive the freeze in credit markets and slowdown in the economy."
Mortgage Rates' Rise Tied To Bailout NBC Nightly News reported, "Just as the country desperately needs home buyers to help lift real estate prices, more bad news. Thirty-year mortgage rates are suddenly jumping, now averaging 6.74%, compared with 6.2% last week." USA Today, meanwhile, says the government's $700 billion rescue plan "means the Treasury is borrowing more money, putting pressure on long-term interest rates for mortgage securities -- the source of most capital for home finance. That, coupled with investors' fears about future inflation, means rates could continue to rise." The Financial Times says that the "dramatic sell-off in paper issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pushed the cost of funding new mortgages significantly higher." The Times adds that "as a result, house prices may fall further before they find a bottom, exacerbating the US economic downturn."
The AP reports the Bush Administration "has launched a top-level lobbying campaign to persuade skeptical US lawmakers and disapproving Iraqi politicians to support a security agreement governing the continued presence of American troops in Iraq." According to the AP, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and national security adviser Stephen Hadley "are among those reaching out to key members of the House and Senate." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Rice has also spoken with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Vice President Adil Abdul-Mahdi, who also met with Ambassador Ryan Crocker on Thursday. The Washington Post adds that "US negotiators in Iraq," along with Crocker and Gen. Ray Odierno, "will go over the text of the proposed accord with senior Senate and House aides this morning in a video conference at the White House." According to the Post, "congressional attendance has been limited to 12 people from the leadership and the two relevant committees in the House and Senate." Meanwhile, "US officials appeared unsure whether the terms agreed upon by negotiators would gain approval from Iraqi political and religious leaders." At the Pentagon yesterday, spokesman Geoff Morrell said Secretary Gates is "satisfied" with the draft, reports AFP.
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Jay Leno: "Well, if you watched the debate last night, you know John McCain kept talking about this guy Senator Obama met on the campaign trail named Joe the Plumber. Do you know the saddest part about the Joe the Plumber story? Last month, he was an investment banker."
Jay Leno: "Well, actually, here's the best story. I just got this from 'The New York Times.' Turns out Joe the Plumber, his name is not Joe and he is not a licensed plumber and he owes back taxes. So it sounds like he has the best plan to reduce taxes don't pay them."
Jay Leno: "And happy birthday to Winnie the Pooh," who is "82 years old this week." And he is "still sharp as a tack. In fact, earlier today, Winnie was registered to vote by ACORN in Florida."
Conan O'Brien: "A poll came out today; 67% of Americans say they've seen enough and they don't want any more presidential debates. ... The other 33% are plumbers who want to hear their name on television."
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