Following last night's 74-25 Senate passage of a $700 billion financial rescue bill, media reports suggest the odds have increased that the House will also approve the measure by the end of the week. Yet "no one really knows," said NBC Nightly News last night in a skeptical lead story, "if the idea of a massive $700 billion bailout is the single best thing for what's happening to our country, our economy right now. But the Administration and many others say it is." USA Today reports "Democratic and Republican leaders" now "predict" the Senate vote "will put the legislation on track for enactment later this week." The bill "has been slightly revised over the version defeated Monday by the House." The Los Angeles Times notes House Minority Leader John Boehner said yesterday the Senate-approved package "had a 'much better chance' of passing the House than the measure defeated Monday. But he said he was 'not taking anything for granted.'"
Reporting on the upcoming House vote, The Politico says "caution is still the watchword," but "the revised Senate package blends in more than $100 billion in popular tax breaks as well as aid to rural schools important to House Republicans. And to build support among small town community banks, the bill raises the cap on insured deposits from $100,000 to $250,000." The New York Times also reports House leaders appear "increasingly confident that politically enticing provisions attached to the original bill...would win over at least the dozen or so votes needed to reverse Monday's outcome and send the measure to President Bush." Likewise, the AP says the measure is "gaining ground in the House, where Republicans opposition softened." The Hill offers a similar assessment.
Potential stumbling blocks remain. The Wall Street Journal reports that while the new provisions could attract GOP backing, "moderate House Democrats" who "provided a solid bloc of 25 votes Monday for the bailout bill...could back away. Adding tax cuts could also drive away progressive Democrats already concerned that the bill doesn't do enough to help average Americans, congressional aides said." House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, "a moderate," said "he is urging fiscally conservative Democrats, known as Blue Dogs, to focus on the 'bigger picture.'" The Hill, meanwhile, quotes "a top aide to a Democratic representative who'd supported the bill Monday but didn't like the Senate's handling of the tax provisions" saying, "We're going to get rolled. ... House members who care about fiscal discipline are being backed into a corner here." Last night, ABC World News showed Hoyer saying, "If I believe that we don't have the votes on Friday, perhaps we wait until Saturday, and if we don't have them on Saturday, maybe we'll wait until Sunday."
More optimistic is Roll Call, which reports "leaders from both parties are gaining confidence that this time, the package will be ready for its close-up." The revisions to the bill "all appeared likely to win over Republican votes," but "the group most likely to defect over the changes -- Blue Dog Democrats who have been demanding offsets for the tax cuts -- did not seem to be bailing Wednesday."
McCain, Obama Sound Bipartisan Note In Support For Bailout The Los Angeles Times reports Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain "stayed on the high road Wednesday, eschewing direct attacks on each other and talking up the financial rescue legislation before returning to Washington to cast their votes for the Senate version of the bill." ABC World News showed McCain saying, "If the financial rescue bill fails in Congress yet again, the present crisis will turn into a disaster." Obama said, "It is clear that this is what we must do right now to prevent a crisis from turning into a catastrophe." The New York Times notes Obama "spoke in support of the plan, but Mr. McCain did not address" the Senate.
Senate Bill Ladles Out Pork To Win Votes Media coverage of the Senate version of the financial rescue package has largely focused on its tax cuts and the FDIC provisions. But apparently, that's not all senators added to the bill. The Financial Times notes this morning that "proposed rules on rum excise tax to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tax treatment of washing machines and 'exemption from excise tax for certain wooden arrows designed for use by children all feature in the financial rescue package being considered by the US Senate." The Times adds, "While the link between such measures and the US administration's $700bn bail-out proposals might not be immediately clear, in truth they represent a tried and tested approach to deal with problems on Capitol Hill."
Is Public Opinion Turning? The Hill reports that in the aftermath of Monday's House vote, "even members who weren't spooked by the largest point drop in the history of the Dow Jones average have noticed a significant change in the tenor of their constituent calls. Poll numbers show that while people don't like the bailout package, even more fear its failure." The Wall Street Journal notes "Nevada Republican Jon Porter says that last week, 99% of the callers to his office opposed the plan. By Tuesday, half the calls were opposed, and three constituents had stopped him in the Las Vegas airport to commend him for voting for the legislation, he says."
USA Today also reports that "in contrast with last week, when lawmakers recounted the deluge of calls from constituents opposed to the bill, senators Wednesday told stories of business owners who were unable to borrow money." And "a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll found 77% of Americans want Congress to act. Forty percent approved of the way Democratic leaders handled the issue and 43% disapproved; 38% approved of the GOP leadership's role and 45% disapproved." The Christian Science Monitor also says "the tide is shifting" because "voter anger over a 'bailout' for Wall Street...is being eclipsed by new evidence that the credit crisis is hitting Main Street and is on track to get worse."
Even as the security situation in Iraq appears to improve, McClatchy notes the top US commander in Afghanistan warned Wednesday that the situation there could worsen before it improves and urgently called for more troops, civilian advisors and equipment. Gen. David McKiernan said, "We're in a very tough fight," as he "spoke amid growing worries among Pentagon officials about how the US military can sustain troop levels in Iraq and also address the worsening violence in Afghanistan."
Offering a "sober view," the Washington Post reports, McKiernan described Afghanistan as "a far more complex environment than I ever found in Iraq," noting that the country's "mountainous terrain and rural population, poverty and illiteracy, its 400 major tribal networks and history of civil war -- all make for unique challenges." The Post notes that "another facet of the Iraq strategy that McKiernan doubts can be duplicated in Afghanistan is the US military's programs to recruit tribes to oppose insurgents." Such an effort, he added, is "vital...but it must be carried out through the Afghan government and not by the US military." The AP notes that after an Oval Office briefing from McKiernan, "President Bush said Afghanistan is 'a situation where there's been progress and there are difficulties.'"
Highlighting US challenges in Afghanistan, the New York Times reports this morning the general also said NATO forces "will step up attacks on drug lords and narcotics traffickers who are supporting an insurgency that has rebounded in the past year and is responsible for rising violence." His comments, says the Times, "made clear that international troops in Afghanistan were not going to eradicate opium poppy crops. ... But by drawing a clear link between the narcotics trade and its role in the insurgency," he "was outlining what could be an important and expanding role for American and NATO troops."
In what is widely being cast as a victory for the Bush Administration, the Senate last night approved a nuclear deal with India, sending the pact to President Bush's desk for signing. Not long ago, few thought the treaty would win approval. Calling it "a significant foreign policy achievement" for the Administration "in its final months," the Washington Post reports the Senate passed the bill in an 86 to 13 vote, "handing the chief executive a rare victory that both advocates and foes say will reverberate for decades."
Also calling the approval "a rare foreign policy victory" for Bush "in his final months in office," the AP says the deal "will allow American businesses to begin selling nuclear fuel, technology and reactors to India in exchange for safeguards and UN inspections at India's civilian, but not military, nuclear plants." The pact, it adds, also "marks a major shift in US policy toward nuclear-armed India after decades of mutual wariness." Bush "hailed the Senate's vote," saying in a statement that the legislation "will strengthen our global nuclear nonproliferation efforts, protect the environment, create jobs and assist India in meeting its growing energy needs in a responsible manner." The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, The Hill, Los Angeles Times and AFP run similar reports.
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The narrative set by the media casts tonight's vice presidential debate as a contest between a media-shy, inexperienced Gov. Sarah Palin and the savvy yet gaffe-prone Sen. Joe Biden. USA Today reports Palin and Biden both have "plenty to prove to the millions who will be watching. The candidates have to show they could step into the top job if needed. They must excite the party faithful and entice undecided voters. And they must mind the vice presidential credo: 'Do no harm' to the nominee, all while sinking their teeth into the opponent." NBC Nightly News reported Biden is "experienced and talkative. Critics say too talkative." But even "some conservative commentators say Palin is not ready for primetime."
Expectations are particularly low for Palin, and the media believes a poor performance would cripple the McCain campaign. The Christian Science Monitor says if Palin "commits any gaffes or looks out of her depth Thursday, McCain's task becomes that much harder." In an analysis, the Chicago Tribune says the debate "may be Palin's last chance to show that she has the stature to be president. If she fumbles, it may be one of the rare vice presidential debates that affects the outcome of a presidential race." The New York Times reports if Palin "turns in another unsteady performance," that would "amplify the questions about" McCain's "judgment in choosing her." The Los Angeles Times reports that the "stakes could hardly be greater, particularly for the Republicans," noting that the "debate arrives at a knife's-edge moment for" Palin, "who has seen her early popularity among some voters ebb under a cascade of probing news stories and halting television interviews." The Hill says Palin "continues to be an unknown to most voters, and she has a long way to go to ease their concerns about how qualified she is to be president - especially since the few media interviews she's done got widely panned."
The New York Times reports this morning that vice presidential debate moderator Gwenn Ifill is facing criticism from conservatives for her planned book, "The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama," to be released on inauguration day. Ifill "and her book became the fresh object of outrage on conservative talk radio, blogs and cable news after a right-leaning Web site, WND.com, posted an article late Tuesday with the headline, 'VP debate moderator Ifill releasing pro-Obama book.'" On a Fox News' Special Report roundtable, Charles Krauthammer said Ifill is "a first class journalist, but there is a problem here. ... Now, she has a stake in this, unconscious or conscious...it's a financial stake, it's a professional stake in the success of the book, and it's going to hinge on who wins."
The AP reports Ifill "dismissed conservative questions about her impartiality because she is writing a book that includes material on Barack Obama" and that she "hasn't even written her chapter on Obama for the book." Ifill said, "I've got a pretty long track record covering politics and news, so I'm not particularly worried that one-day blog chatter is going to destroy my reputation." The Politico reports Fox's Carl Cameron "asked John McCain today if he thought that PBS journalist Gwen Ifill should recuse herself from moderating Thursday's VP debate in St. Louis." McCain said, "I think that Gwen Ifill is a professional, and I think she will do a totally objective job because she is a highly-respected professional." McCain added, "Does this help that if she has written a book that's favorable to Sen. Obama? Probably not."
National polls of the presidential race continue to show Sen. Obama in the lead. A new CBS News poll of 769 likely voters taken from September 27-30 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-41%. Reporting on that survey, the New York Times says "Obama is showing signs of gaining significant support among voters," while Sen. John McCain's "image has been damaged by his response to the economic meltdown." While the race is not "over," adds the Times, "the trends signaled by this new wave of polls...suggest that the contours of this race are taking form, and in a way that is not encouraging for Mr. McCain's prospects." The CBS Evening News led with its poll last night, saying there are "two important numbers in the presidential race -- thirty four and nine. There are 34 days until the election, and nine points now separate the candidates. A CBS News poll out tonight shows...Obama has nearly doubled his lead over...McCain in the week since their first debate, and that may have something to do with the financial meltdown."
An Associated Press /GfK poll of 808 likely voters taken September 27-30 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-41%.
A Time Magazine poll of 1,133 likely voters taken September 26-29 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-43%. On its website,Time reports, "Obama's support is not just broader but sturdier; 23% of McCain supporters said they might change their mind, while only 15% of Obama's said they could be persuaded to switch." .
An Ipsos/McClatchy poll of 1007 registered voters, taken September 26-30 shows a narrower contest, with Obama ahead 48%-45%.
A Pew Research poll of 1,258 registered voters taken September 27-29 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-42%.
A Democracy Corps (D) poll of 1,000 likely voters taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-44% with 2% backing Ralph Nader (I) and 1% backing Bob Barr (L).
The three tracking polls also show Obama maintaining a lead. The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,746 registered voters taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-44%. The Rasmussen Reports automated daily presidential tracking poll for October 1 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-45%. The bipartisan George Washington University Battleground daily tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters shows Obama leading McCain 48%-46%, a switch from the last several days, when McCain led Obama by 2 in the poll. The poll surveyed 200 voters each night from September 24-25 and September 28-29.
More polls in key states show Sen. Barack Obama opening leads over Sen. John McCain, matching his gains in national polling. On ABC World News last night, George Stephanopoulos said polls in battleground states show "a shift towards" Sen. Barack Obama," who is "likely ahead in enough states right now to get 270 electoral votes."
3 Polls Show Obama Up In Florida A CNN /Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of 940 registered and 770 likely Florida voter taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading 51%-47% among likely voters. An Insider Advantage /Poll Position survey of 532 likely Florida voters taken September 30 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-46%. A Suffolk University poll of 600 likely Florida voters taken September 27-30 shows Obama leading McCain 46%-42%.
Obama Up 9 In Virginia A CNN /Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of 925 registered and 684 likely Virginia voters taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 53%-44%.
Obama Up In 2 Nevada Polls An Insider Advantage /Poll Position survey of 437 likely Nevada voters taken September 30 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-47%. A CNN /Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of 924 registered and 684 likely Nevada voters taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-47%.
Obama Edges McCain In Missouri A CNN /Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of 951 registered and 744 likely Missouri voters taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-48%.
Obama Holds Double-Digit Lead In Minnesota A CNN /Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of 929 registered and 849 likely Minnesota voters taken September 28-30 shows Obama leading McCain 54%-43%.
Obama Up 9 In Wisconsin A Strategic Vision (R) poll of 800 likely Wisconsin voters taken September 26-28 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-40%.
Obama Leads In New Mexico A SurveyUSA automated poll of 698 likely New Mexico voters taken September 29-30 shows Obama leading McCain 52%-44%.
McCain Up 9 In Texas A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Texas voters taken September 29 shows McCain leading Obama 52%-43%.
McCain Up 8 In Mississippi A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Mississippi voters taken September 30 shows McCain leading Obama 52%-44%.
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Jay Leno: "Congress now has a 10% approval rating. ... How many people think that's way too high?"
Jay Leno: "Hey, the...vice presidential debate is tomorrow night. Joe Biden already gearing up. I understand he went to the hair salon, told the guy to put a little more on top just to get ready."
Jay Leno: "Sarah Palin" also "getting ready." In fact, "I understand she now knows all three branches of government."
David Letterman: "On this date, ladies and gentlemen, in 1881, you know what happened? The New York Stock Exchange moved to a newer, larger location." And earlier today, the "stock market moved to a basement apartment in Queens."
David Letterman: "But Sarah Palin right now is training for tomorrow night's...debate in Arizona." And "she says it has really helped her on foreign policy because from Arizona she can see Mexico."
Conan O'Brien: "It's been reported that John McCain is taking an herbal supplement to improve his memory. ... Apparently, McCain is having trouble remembering why he picked Sarah Palin."
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