There are five new national polls out in the last 24 hours, and four of them show Sen. John McCain opening a lead over Sen. Barack Obama, while the fifth shows the race tied.
McCain Up 2 In ABC/WPost Poll An ABC News /Washington Post poll of 1,133 adults, including 961 registered voters, taken September 5-7 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-46% among registered voters but McCain topping Obama 49%-47% among likely voters. In a similar survey completed August 22, just before the start of the conventions, Obama led 49%-43% among registered voters and 49%-45% among likely voters.
McCain Up 2 In CBS Poll A CBS News poll of 655 registered voters taken September 5-7 shows McCain leading Obama 46%-44%. The same group, interviewed prior to the start of the conventions, had Obama leading McCain 45%-42%.
McCain Up 5 In Gallup Tracker The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,733 registered voters taken September 5-7 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-44%.
McCain Up 1 In Rasmussen Tracker The Rasmussen Reports automated daily presidential tracking poll for September 8 shows McCain leading Obama 47%-46%, and 48%-47% including leaners.
Race Tied In CNN Poll A CNN /Opinion Research poll of 942 registered voters taken September 5-7 shows Obama and McCain tied at 48% apiece. With third party candidates included, McCain and Obama are tied at 45%, with Nader pulling 3%, Barr taking 3% and McKinney with 1%.
McCain Seeing Surge In Enthusiasm, Support From Independents Reporting on its poll, the Washington Post says McCain enters "the presidential campaign's final stretch with newfound momentum" and, "lifted by increasing enthusiasm for his candidacy and a jump in support among white women, has wiped away Obama's pre-convention advantages." For "the first time since the end of the primaries, a majority of voters are enthusiastic about McCain's candidacy, and the percentage calling themselves 'very enthusiastic' has nearly doubled from late August." Reporting on the same poll, ABC World News said that the race "is being contested state by state. Many of the critical states are in the Midwest. In that region, McCain has moved from a 19% deficit to a seven percentage point lead."
Looking at the Gallup data, the Washington Times says McCain "has gotten a jolt of support right where he wanted it -- from the independent voters whom he courted so aggressively at last week's convention -- and now holds a healthy lead over" Obama "in the chase for that key constituency." McCain's support among independents "jumped 12 percentage points in recent days," from 40% to 52%.
While much of the media is focused on the big national polls, the contest is ultimately decided on the state level, and a slew of new polls out in the last 24 hours paints a picture of a very competitive race, with a fairly large number of states potentially in play.
Race Tied In Florida A Fox News /Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely Florida voters taken September 7 shows Obama and McCain tied at 48% with Nader at 2% and 2% undecided.
Obama Up 1 In Michigan A Public Policy Polling (D) survey of 1,147 likely Michigan voters taken September 6-7 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-46%. The Detroit Free Press reports, "From the data, it appears that the Palin pick is clearly helping McCain in the race against Obama in Michigan -- a state the Republican hopes to pick up in order to beat the Democrat."
Obama Up 3 In Colorado A Fox News /Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely Colorado voters taken September 7 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-46%, with Barr at 2% and 2% undecided.
McCain Up 7 In Ohio A Fox News /Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely Ohio voters taken September 7 shows McCain leading Obama 51%-44%, with Nader at 1% and 3% undecided.
Obama Up 2 In Pennsylvania A Fox News /Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters taken September 7 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-45%, with Barr at 1%, Nader at 1% and 7% undecided.
Pair Of Polls Show McCain Up 2 In Virginia A Fox News /Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely Virginia voters taken September 7 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-47%, with Barr at 1%, Nader at 1% and 2% undecided. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 717 likely Virginia voters taken September 5-7 for a group of regional TV stations shows also shows McCain leading Obama 49%-47%.
Obama Up 4 In Washington State A new SurveyUSA automated poll of 658 likely Washington State voters taken September 5-7 for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland shows Obama leading McCain 49%-45%.
Obama Up 6 In New Jersey A Fairleigh Dickinson -PublicMind poll of 872 likely New Jersey voters taken September 4-7 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-41%, down from a 16 point lead in a similar poll in June.
McCain Up 33 In Oklahoma A SurveyUSA automated poll of 652 likely voters taken September 5-7 for KFOR-TV Oklahoma City shows McCain leading Obama 65%-32%.
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The New York Times, in a front-page article titled, "Forgoing Subsidy, Obama Team Presses Donors," reports, "After months of record-breaking fund-raising, a new sense of urgency in" Sen. Barack Obama's "fund-raising team is palpable as the full weight of the campaign's decision to bypass public financing for the general election is suddenly upon it." Obama 's decision "may not necessarily afford him the commanding financing advantage over" Sen. John McCain "that many had originally predicted." McCain brought in $47 million in August while the Republican National Committee brought in $22 million, and the two have about a combined $100 million in the bank (plus the $84 million in public finance cash), while the Obama camp and the DNC have not yet reported his numbers. At the same time, the Obama campaign "is struggling to meet ambitious fund-raising goals it set for the campaign and the party. It collected in June and July far less from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's donors than originally projected."
Media reports this morning continue to suggest Gov. Sarah Palin's selection as Sen. John McCain's running mate may have dramatically altered the 2008 campaign. The Wall Street Journal, under the headline "Palin's Star Power Can Outshine McCain," says Palin "has become the new phenomenon on the campaign trail, at times overshadowing her workmanlike running mate...with a pugnacious, sarcastic speaking style that whips up crowds and wins over voters who had never heard of her two weeks ago." ABC World News reported the McCain campaign is "thrilled. They say that Palin has given them everything they want, this message of change. That's why they have had" McCain "stay and campaign with her over these last several days."
Looking to capitalize on their success, the McCain campaign is planning a media rollout this week. The Politico notes Palin will speak at her son's Army deployment ceremony on 9/11 and spend two days with ABC News crews later this week as part of a McCain campaign plan to increase Americans' comfort with her as a leader." The Politico adds "campaign and network officials had said on Sunday that her first television interview would be a sit-down with Charles Gibson of ABC's 'World News,'" but "it turns out that she is spending much of Thursday and Friday with Gibson -- at the ceremony in Fairbanks, Alaska, and at her home in Wasilla, Alaska. Campaign aides said the anchorman will get extensive, repeated access to Palin throughout her first trip home since becoming the nominee." This "remarkable rollout reflects new confidence in Palin by her handlers, who initially had suggested it would be a while before she did interviews. Now, there will be several." The AP reports that ABC News anchor Charles Gibson's "producer says no issue is off the table" for his interview with Palin.
McCain Camp Says Palin Boosting Them In West ABC World News reported the McCain camp believes Gov. Sarah Palin is "having an electoral impact. She takes the states of Alaska and Montana off the table" and the McCain camp believes she'll "have a big impact" in Missouri, Michigan, and Ohio. The Washington Times, examining a similar subject, says "Western Democrats acknowledge that Mrs. Palin made a strong impression with her vice-presidential nomination acceptance speech, but they say Sen. John McCain's running mate will have a negligible impact in Western battleground states such as Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico."
Other GOP Candidates Looking For Palin Visits The Hill reports, "Republican congressional candidates anxious for a safe and popular national political figure to campaign with appear to have landed just that in...Palin." However, "with demand extremely high and supply low, it appears the new GOP vice presidential nominee will have to be rationed carefully in the fewer than 60 days before the 2008 election. ... Congressional candidates from all regions are already requesting face-time with Palin, and national Republicans are trying to figure out how to approach the situation."
A new McCain campaign ad portraying Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin as "the original mavericks" reiterates Gov. Palin's claim -- oft repeated in the past week and a half -- that she opposed the notorious "Bridge to Nowhere" earmark championed by Alaska's Republican congressional delegation. The Obama campaign responded quickly with an ad of its own that challenges Gov. Palin's version of the controversy and refers to her and Sen. McCain as "lying politicians," according to The Politico.
Sen. Obama also made the charge that, regarding the earmark, Gov. Palin was "against it before she was for it" in several campaign appearances yesterday and during an interview with MSNBC's Keith Olbermann. Last night, on NBC Nightly News, Obama's line of attack was cited as evidence of his campaign's "new bluntness." NBC reported that in Flint, Michigan, Sen. Obama "outright mocked what he called McCain's No Change Express." Obama said, "You can't just re-create yourself. You can't just reinvent yourself. The American people aren't stupid." Sen. Obama was also shown saying, "When it came to the Bridge to Nowhere, she was for it until everybody started raising a fuss about it and she started running for governor and then suddenly she was against it. You remember that, 'for it before you're against it.'" Similarly, a widely-distributed AP story says Obama "broadly accused his Republican rivals of dishonesty Monday, citing former lobbyists working for John McCain, Sarah Palin's shifting stance on the 'Bridge to Nowhere' and their promise to change Washington."
Commenting on the new McCain ad, Obama said on MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Olbermann, "They are not telling the truth. ... When you have somebody who was for a project being presented as being against it, then that stretches the bounds of spin into new areas. You know, as far as John McCain is concerned, I think that senator McCain has, on occasion, broken with his party, but this notion...that he would tell the lobbyists they are not going to be running Washington anymore, who is he going to tell? His campaign chairman, Charlie Black? His campaign manager, Rick Davis? Two of the largest corporate lobbyists in Washington with client lists that extend into every major industry. You know, there is just a sense that they are making these assertions that ignore the facts of their campaigns and their past history. I think people should be troubled by that."
Olbermann is unabashed in his support of Obama, which has drawn the media's attention to how Olbermann, MSNBC and NBC cover the race. In today's Washington Post, Howard Kurtz calls the Olbermann interview "strikingly friendly," while the AP says Obama "couldn't succeed in keeping a straight face at the ease of the softballs tossed at him." Less friendly to Obama was an interview last night with Fox News' Bill O'Reilly; the AP says Obama "had to fight -- not always successfully -- to keep from being shouted down."
Biden Weighs In The AP reports Sen. Joe Biden yesterday also went on the offensive against Palin, saying she "will eventually have to defend 'some fairly extreme views' on climate change when she starts granting interviews." On its website, CNN quotes Biden saying, "I'm assuming that she shares John McCain's views on most of the issues. And she even says, if the press is correct -- and I'm not ready, prepared to make a judgment [on this] -- her views on everything from global warming to other things, if they are as presented, they're pretty far out there."
The Washington Times notes yesterday's news that MSNBC dropped Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews "as co-anchors of its major political coverage," and adds that "some observers" are "blaming the proverbial 'right-wing conspiracy' for the decision. 'The right dictates MSNBC's programming decisions,' said Salon's Glenn Greenwald on Monday. ... 'The available evidence suggests the right complained enough to make the network act,' observed Steve Benen of the Washington Monthly." The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz also notes that liberal bloggers "denounced the cable channel yesterday for making a change that had long been sought by NBC News veterans, saying MSNBC was caving into pressure from John McCain's campaign and the right wing. ... In the liberal blogosphere, Olbermann -- an occasional contributor to the Daily Kos site -- is viewed as a heroic truth-teller who has now been undermined by network suits whose company is owned by General Electric."
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With the November elections quickly approaching, a partisan clash over offshore drilling looms large as Congress returns from its recess. The Washington Times reports Congress returned "to the same gridlock over energy and oil drilling it faced before adjourning for summer break in early August, despite a softening by House Democratic leaders to include some expanded drilling." Speaker Nancy Pelosi "last month said she will introduce energy legislation in the coming weeks that might include opening portions of the outer continental shelf for drilling." However, "Democratic leaders in both chambers remain steadfast in their opposition for a stand-alone, 'up or down' vote on new drilling."
In an article about Congress' agenda, the Christian Science Monitor says, "A vote could come as early as this week over whether to lift a ban on oil and gas drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf. ... Aware of recent polls showing that 7 in 10 Americans now favor lifting the ban, Democrats are crafting compromise energy legislation."
Gannett reports, "A bipartisan group of 16 senators is promoting an energy proposal that includes allowing oil drilling off the coasts of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, if their governors and legislatures approve, and spending $20 billion on an effort to move away from gasoline-powered vehicles within 20 years. Four more senators are expected to sign on this week."
President Bush is expected to announce today a small reduction in US troop levels in Iraq, as well as the dispatch of additional troops to Afghanistan. NBC Nightly News reported Bush will announce that "most of the 146,000 US troops in Iraq will remain there through this year, though 8,000 will be home by spring." At the same time, ABC World News noted, Bush will "lay out plans" to "send...5,000 Marines and Army combat troops" to Afghanistan. The AP, meanwhile, reports that "by the time the troops return home on the timeline Bush is proposing, someone else will be making the wartime decisions from the Oval Office." Still, the move "shows that Bush still commands when and how troops will withdraw, despite a fiercely opposition Congress and a soured American public." The Washington Post says the "new plans are likely to represent Bush's last major decision on the deployment of US troops in the two wars that have come to define his presidency. The plans also mean that either Sen. John McCain or Sen. Barack Obama will have to cope with decisions on wartime troop levels immediately after taking office January 20."
Calling the plan "a gradual redeployment of US military personnel from Iraq to increasingly violent Afghanistan," the Wall Street Journal reports the "additional forces will be charged with defeating the resurgent Taliban and protecting the Afghan populace." Fox News' Special Report noted "the President will make the announcement in a speech Tuesday," and the Financial Times reports Bush is expected to say, "While the progress in Iraq is still fragile and reversible...there now appears to be a degree of durability to the gains we have made.'"
Al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri accused Iran of collaborating with the US in remarks broadcast on al Jazeera to mark the anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. The AP reports the "hour and a half video message Monday" summarizes "the state of jihad, or holy war, around the world and" slams Iran "for collaborating with the United States." In "short excerpts of the message" aired on Al-Jazeera, Ayman al-Zawahri accused Iran of "cooperating with the Americans in occupying Iraq and Afghanistan" and "slammed Iran for recognizing the two governments."
The Financial Times reports, "Al-Qaeda, a Sunni Muslim organisation, has only this year started criticising Iran which is predominantly Shia. Mr Zawahiri also said Shias had failed to make a call to arms against the 'American crusader invaders.'"
Ahmadinejad Facing Domestic Pressure The Financial Times reports, "Amid mounting domestic pressure on his government, at least 40 members of Iran's parliament have called for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be summoned over pro-Israel comments made by one of his closest aides."
American Al Qaeda Spokesman Thought Dead London's Daily Telegraph reports that US-born al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn "may have fallen victim to an expanded programme of predator assassinations which in the last year has targeted and killed many of al-Qa'eda's military commanders, terrorist trainers and facilitators. Jihadists around the world will be watching as closely as intelligence officials this week to see whether Mr Gadahn...produces a new video message to mark September 11, as he has done every year since 2003. If there is no message it will be taken as near certain confirmation that he is dead."
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Jay Leno: "Well, here's something that surprised a lot of people." It "looks like John McCain's speech last week beat Barack Obama's speech in the ratings. ... That's like 'American Idol' being beaten by a rerun of 'Matlock.'"
Jay Leno: "Did you see Governor Sarah Palin on the cover of 'Newsweek?'" She is shown "holding a shotgun." The "picture was taken right after she announced that guy would be marrying her pregnant daughter."
David Letterman: "Everybody in New York City has Fashion Week fever. ... As a matter of fact," the "Statue of Liberty earlier today was wearing a pair of those hip Sarah Palin glasses."
Conan O'Brien: "Experts say...that since Sarah Palin became the vice presidential nominee, there's been an actual spike in the sales of her style of eyeglasses. ... Yeah, with...Palin's glasses, you'll be able to see everything, except what the hell your teenage daughter's up to."
Conan O'Brien: "According to the latest polls, which came out today, John McCain has started to open up a lead over Barack Obama. ... The 'USA Today' poll has McCain ahead by ten points, the 'CBS News' poll has the two tied, and the MSNBC poll says that Obama won the election last week."
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