In a development with the potential to have a huge impact on US foreign policy and on the domestic political debate, American and Iraqi negotiators have apparently set a date for the end of the Iraq war. Last night the CBS Evening News said "the Iraqis want the end of 2010. The Americans want the end of 2011. So you can see they are still pretty far apart on a very important issue." But on its front page, the Wall Street Journal reports this morning that US and Iraqi negotiators in fact "reached agreement," setting "2011 as the date by which all remaining US troops will leave Iraq, according to Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Haj Humood and other people familiar with the matter." In Washington, "senior officials...said the talks have concluded" and the deal "will be presented to the Bush administration and the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for formal approval or rejection."
The AP also reports the two sides have "completed a draft security agreement that would see American troops leave Iraqi cities as soon as June 30" of next year. In Washington, "a senior military official said the deal is acceptable to the US side, subject to formal approval by President Bush." The New York Times says that Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari confirmed "the text of a draft had been agreed upon by negotiators on the technical and legal teams who had worked on it since March 11. But he cautioned that this fell short of a final agreement because it had yet to be approved by the political leadership in either country, including Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki."
In other developments out of Iraq, the New York Times notes that Gen. David Petraeus will "leave Iraq a remarkably safer place than it was when he arrived. Violence has plummeted from its apocalyptic peaks, Iraqi leaders are asserting themselves, and streets that once seemed dead are flourishing with life." However, the general warns that while Iraq "has indeed stepped back from self-destruction...the gains are tenuous and unlikely to survive without an American effort that outlasts his tenure." As it to underscore that point, McClatchy reports that "a key pillar of the US strategy to pacify Iraq is in danger of collapsing because the Iraqi government is failing to absorb tens of thousands of former Sunni Muslim insurgents who'd joined US-allied militia groups into the country's security forces."
The New York Times, meanwhile, notes that the UN said Wednesday "it would present a list of proposals to resolve the conflict over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and other disputed regions in northern Iraq." Staffan de Mistura, the UN's special representative for Iraq, "said that its assistance mission for Iraq would present proposals by the end of October" aimed at reaching "a grand deal" among the groups pressing their claims in the area.
Rice Arrives In Baghdad To Discuss Deal The AP is reporting this morning that "Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew into Baghdad on Thursday for discussions with...Maliki and other top Iraqi officials, hoping to iron out remaining differences in a US-Iraq security deal that envisions the withdrawal of American troops." Rice told reporters, "The negotiators have taken this very, very far...but there is no reason to believe that there is an agreement yet. ... There are still issues concerning exactly how our forces operate," and "the agreement rests on aspirational timelines." Added Rice, "Ultimately the prime minister has to make the call on moving forward."
The Georgian crisis and its aftermath show little sign of going away. The CBS Evening News reported last night, "Brushing off threats of Russian retaliation, the United States signed a deal today to build a missile defense base in Poland, barely 100 miles from the Russian border," pushing US relations with Moscow, "already strained over the crisis in Georgia, immediately...from bad to worse." The AP notes the pact's signing was "followed swiftly by a new warning from Moscow of a possible military response." But "for many Poles...the accord represented what they believed would be a guarantee of safety for themselves in the face of a newly assertive Russia." The Financial Times reports Moscow "reacted angrily to Wednesday's move," with the foreign ministry saying it would "have to react" to the agreement "and not only through diplomatic protests." McClatchy, Washington Post, New York Times and Wall Street Journal also report the story.
Russia: No More Ties With NATO The CBS Evening News reported last night that Russia had "served notice...it's severing its own ties with NATO, and its troops have not loosened their stranglehold on Georgia. Russia is teaching Georgia a lesson it will never forget and at the same time making a point the rest of the world apparently forgot: Don't mess with Russia."
The AP reports Russia "informed Norway that it plans to suspend all military ties with NATO," Norway's Defense Ministry said Wednesday, "a day after the military alliance urged Moscow to withdraw its forces from Georgia." Washington "described the reported move as unfortunate." The Financial Times reports Russia "made clear...that it had no intention of bowing to NATO's calls for a withdrawal to the positions its forces held before the invasion of Georgia," while the Wall Street Journal says the "US and Europe objected to the Russian moves but have little leverage over the Kremlin in the crisis." Moreover, Russian legislators "said they expect the Kremlin-controlled parliament to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia" during "special sessions early next week."
That could make matters even more tense between the US and Russia. In remarks seen as "pushing back against claims by Russia," the AP reports, President Bush said Wednesday that the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia "are part of pro-Western Georgia and that Washington will work with allies to insure Georgia's independence and territorial integrity." During a speech before the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Orlando, Bush "offered strong support for Georgia," while also "condemning Russia's brutal crackdown in the former Soviet republic." The New York Times and Washington Post run similar reports.
The New York Times, meanwhile, also recounts that "when Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, rushed to Moscow earlier this month to mediate the crisis over Georgia, he found the new Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, to be calm, even sanguine about prospects for a solution. But the tone was wildly different when Mr. Sarkozy heard from Vladimir V. Putin, the president-turned-prime minister." The Times adds, "According to a private report that Mr. Sarkozy later delivered to President Bush, Mr. Putin was virulent in denouncing Georgian actions as atrocities, and he expressed such deep antipathy toward Georgian leaders that it made the war seem personal."
Georgian "Guerrilla Resistance" Looming? The Wall Street Journal, under the headline "Georgians' Anger At Russians Is Building In Gori," reports, "With repeated Russian promises of a military pullout still unfulfilled, the occupation of this strategic Georgian city has entered its second week. And the locals, after emerging from the initial shock of aerial bombardments, shelling and looting, are now beginning to challenge the Russian invaders." The Journal adds, "So far, the Georgians aren't taking up arms, hoping Russia will eventually honor its pledges and withdraw on its own. But, if the occupation drags on, the growing anger could turn into the kind of guerrilla resistance that often follows foreign military takeovers -- leading to renewed bloodshed."
Syria's Assad In Russia Seeking Arms Deal The Financial Times reports, "Bashar al-Assad, Syria's president, arrived on a two-day visit to Russia on Wednesday seeking new weapons and greater military co-operation and hoping to capitalise on the rising tensions between Moscow and the west." The Times adds that "in an interview with the Russian daily Kommersant, the Syrian leader said arms talks would top the agenda during discussions on Thursday with Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, in the Black Sea resort of Sochi." Assad also "said Russia's conflict with Georgia, in which Moscow claims Georgia used Israeli-supplied equipment and military training, had underlined the need for Russia and Syria to bolster their military co-operation."
Articles covering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's financial problems and the possibility of government interventions appeared on the front of major national newspapers' business sections this morning. In an article on the front of its "Money and Investing" section, the Wall Street Journal reports that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have to refinance $225 billion in debt "by the end of September. Thus far, they have had little trouble persuading investors to buy debt with maturities of a year or less." However, "because investors have little idea how" the Department of the Treasury might intervene, investors "have become less enthusiastic about adding Fannie or Freddie debt to their portfolios, creating a potentially self-fulfilling spiral." While "Treasury has no imminent plans to intervene...a deterioration in the housing sector could force its hand if either company can no longer fund itself. Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli said, "We continue to stay in touch with the companies and their regulators and are staying on top of the situation."
The Financial Times reports that with Zuccarelli's statement, Treasury "backed away from assurances that it would not have to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." This "shift in emphasis towards a more open-ended statement may not mean that the Treasury is close to intervening to save Fannie and Freddie." However, "it highlights the pressure facing Hank Paulson." And an article on the front of the business section of the Washington Post notes "shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled more than 20 percent yesterday, hitting their lowest levels in nearly two decades, as investors fled out of fear that a government initiative to save the ailing mortgage giants could render their stock worthless."
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More signs of Sen. John McCain's new-found strength in national polls has come out in the last 24 hours. In addition to the Zogby poll released yesterday that showed McCain up by 5 among likely voters, another poll out later yesterday showed McCain up among likely voters. The Battleground poll of 1,000 likely voters taken August 10-14 by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partner (D) for George Washington University shows McCain leading Obama 47%-46%.
Two other big national polls out today both show Obama leading McCain by an identical 45%-42% margin among a broader sample of registered voters -- the New York Times /CBS News poll and the Wall Street Journal /NBC News poll. The CBS Evening News reported that in their poll, McCain is "closing the gap' with Obama, "In fact, he has cut it in half." The New York Times says their poll shows the candidates are "heading into their conventions neck and neck in the presidential race, with voters focused overwhelmingly on economic issues but convinced that the candidates are not paying enough attention to their priorities." The poll surveyed 1,012 adults including 869 registered voters from August 15-19.
The Wall Street Journal reports that in their poll, McCain "has all but closed the gap with Sen. Barack Obama, underscoring how international crises -- and some well-placed negative ads -- have boosted the prospects of the Republican presidential candidate." The poll "also points to a big challenge for Sen. Obama as his party gathers in Denver next week for its convention: rallying Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters to his cause. Only half of those who voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries say they are now supporting Sen. Obama." In an analysis on its website, MSNBC says that "perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama's inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton's supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else. What's more, those who backed Clinton in the primaries - but aren't supporting Obama right now - tend to view McCain in a better light than Obama and have more confidence in McCain's ability to be commander-in-chief." The poll surveyed 1,075 voters, including 1,005 registered voters, from August 15-18.
Obama Holds Narrow Edge In National Tracking Polls The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows Obama leading McCain 45%-43%. The poll surveyed 2,658 registered voters from August 17-19. The Rasmussen Reports automated tracking poll for August 20 shows Obama leading McCain 45%-42% and 47%-46% including leaners.
In his Chicago Tribune column, John Kass writes today about the efforts of Stanley Kurtz, a writer for the conservative National Review, to get documents from the University of Illinois at Chicago library on the relationship between Barack Obama and radical William Ayers. The AP reports the University on Tuesday "refused to release records relating to Barack Obama's service to a nonprofit group linked to" Ayers, saying "the donor of the records that document the work of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge has not yet turned over ownership rights to the material." However, Kass has a much different explanation "The secret is hidden in the name of the library: The Richard J. Daley Library." Noting that the younger Daley is currently Mayor of Chicago and a close political ally of Obama, Kass says, "It's obvious that Mr. Kurtz and the National Review didn't have the special Chicago Democratic machine library card: The mayor's smiling face on one side. And your voting record on the other." In its Swamp blog, the Chicago Tribune notes that "Obama served as board chairman of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge for three years starting in 1995 and remained on the board until the project closed in 2001."
The Washington Post reports in a front page story this morning that Sen. Barack Obama was in the key battleground state of Virginia yesterday, where he "lamented the loss of US jobs Wednesday as he campaigned in a region of southern Virginia that in recent elections has spurned Democratic presidential candidates." USA Today adds Obama "used a big American flag and a custom-built race car as backdrops here Wednesday, signaling his intention to challenge John McCain in what has been reliably Republican territory." The New York Times reports Obama has "sharpened his stump speech, delivering a more populist message," while the AP says Obama "pledged Wednesday to create millions of union jobs in alternative energy and end tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas, using tough new populist language to convince voters that he, not rival John McCain, is best positioned to lift the limping U.S. economy."
After his appearance, Obama "had an event in Lynchburg before heading to Richmond for the night -- a destination that, as the home of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), had potentially significant ramifications." The Washington Times reports Obama "offered 'no hints' about his choice of running mate Wednesday, but campaigned hard through Virginia with two former contenders to prove he will compete in the state." Gov. Tim Kaine "remains a strong contender. The two will campaign together Thursday." Obama "spent much of Wednesday with former Gov. Mark Warner, who took himself out of the running months ago, and Sen. Jim Webb, who said this summer that he wouldn't want the vice-presidential job."
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Sen. Barack Obama has, in recent days, accused Sen. John McCain of questioning his patriotism when McCain attacks his foreign policy stands, something he continued to do yesterday. AFP quotes Obama in its report saying, "Don't you dare suggest I am less patriotic than you or I have political motivations in taking the positions I take." However, the AP reports that in New Mexico yesterday, McCain took issue with that yesterday, saying "he is not challenging Barack Obama's patriotism in criticizing his call to pull out of Iraq, only the judgment of his Democratic rival." The Albuquerque Journal reports McCain said Obama "has made these decisions not because he doesn't love America, but because he doesn't think it's important whether America wins or loses."
Both candidates yesterday rolled out fresh attack ads as they look to set the tone of the campaign in the run-up to the conventions. The AP reports Obama "stepped up his hard-edged ad campaign Wednesday, launching two tough commercials against Republican presidential rival John McCain." One ad, "aimed at the most competitive states, criticizes McCain's economic policies as a boon to corporations. The other, meant for Atlanta voters, sought to exploit a fundraising connection between McCain and a political strategist linked to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff."
The Washington Post reports McCain released a radio ad hitting Obama's economic plans, which says, "Obama's got plans -- big plans -- for your money. Piling more debt on the backs of your children and grandchildren." The Boston Globe says McCain's ad "tries to turn the criticism of Obama as a celebrity into a warning for families scared about their finances. 'Celebrities like to spend their millions,' the announcer says. 'Barack Obama is no different -- only it's your money he wants to spend.'"
ABC World News, meanwhile, sees the new attacks by Obama as part of a new strategy, reporting, "Obama is launching a very, very aggressive attack. He seems to have a taste for combat." Obama "seems more focused on figuring out a way to sully his opponent." ABC quotes Obama saying, "John McCain, let's face it, he has a compelling biography. He's a POW. And so, that's what people kind of think about. My job in this election is to say, I honor his service. But I don't honor his policies. And I don't honor his politics."
The New York Times reports in a lengthy front page story on the challenges faced by Sen. Barack Obama in western Pennsylvania, an area of rural, "largely white working-class counties," where "one hears much hesitating talk about Mr. Obama, some simply quizzical or skeptically political, and some not-so-subtly racial." Hillary Clinton "ran 40 percentage points ahead of Mr. Obama here during the Democratic primary. With its neighborhoods of white working-class laborers and retirees and fraying party loyalties, it has become a most uncertain political terrain and an inviting target for Mr. McCain - and one that could tip the electoral balance in Pennsylvania, a place packed with electoral votes."
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The AP reports a federal judge in Chicago "has delayed the sentencing of Tony Rezko, a political fund-raiser who raised money for Senator Barack Obama's campaigns in Illinois." The rub? Judge Amy St. Eve granted "a request from Mr. Rezko's lawyers for more time to prepare post-trial motions," moving the sentencing to "Oct. 28, one week before the general election."
McCain Closes On Obama In New Hampshire A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely New Hampshire voters taken August 18 shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 43%-42%. A similar poll in mid-July showed Obama up 47%-41%, while a June poll showed Obama leading 50%-39%.
McCain Up By 10 In Missouri The St. Louis Business Journal reports that a Public Policy Polling (D) survey shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 50%-40% in Missouri, "a seven-point increase from Public Policy Polling's July poll, which showed him leading by three points." The poll surveyed 750 likely Missouri voters from August 13-17.
Obama Up 12 In Maryland A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Maryland voters taken August 18 shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 53%-41%.
McCain Up By 2 In North Carolina An Insider Advantage poll of 614 registered North Carolina voters taken August 19 shows McCain leading Obama 45%-43%. The poll also shows Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and state sen. Kay Hagen (D) tied at 40% apiece; other recent polls have shown Dole with a significant lead.
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All late-night talk shows were re-runs once again.
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