With the Democratic National Convention rapidly approaching next week, speculation on when Sen. Barack Obama will announce his running mate and who it will be is hitting a fevered pitch. The New York Times reports that Obama has "all but settled on his choice for a running mate and set an elaborate rollout plan for his decision, beginning with an early morning alert to supporters, perhaps as soon as Wednesday morning, aides said." Aides said Obama "had not notified his choice - or any of those not selected - of his decision as of late Monday." But "going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware." The AP says Obama "was believed to have narrowed his list to" Kaine, Biden, Bayh, and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. While "it seemed increasingly unlikely that he would choose his vanquished rival, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, some Democrats speculated Monday that he could pull a surprise and pick her."
There is no consensus, though on who the frontrunner is. For example,NBC Nightly News reported, "Top Democrats tell NBC News the leading contender for Obama's running mate is Senator Joe Biden, because he has blue collar roots, foreign policy experience, and the credibility to attack John McCain's record." U.S. News & World Report reported that according to unnamed "top Democratic Party officials," Obama is likely to choose Bayh as his running mate. However, a source indicated, "a number of other candidates, including New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, are still under consideration."
Clinton Favorite For VP Among Democratic Delegates CBS News, meanwhile, reports that Sen. Clinton "is by far the favorite choice for the number two spot on the Democratic ticket, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll of delegates to the Democratic convention. When asked who they would like Barack Obama to select, 28 percent volunteer her as their top choice for Vice Presidential nominee." The nearest runner-up Biden, with 6 percent.
The Politico reports Republican sources said Sen. John McCain "plans to celebrate his 72nd birthday on Aug. 29 by naming his running mate at a huge rally in the battleground state of Ohio." The campaign has "begun building a crowd of 10,000 for Dayton, Ohio, according to an organizer. McCain is scheduled to appear with his running mate at a large-scale event in Pennsylvania shortly thereafter." The Los Angeles Times adds that if McCain does announce his VP choice on that day, which comes after Obama's acceptance speech on the 28th, the "timing would excite the imagination of many a political consultant. McCain could snatch post-Democratic convention attention away from Obama and quickly shift the spotlight to the GOP convention, which begins three days later."
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Sen. John McCain, speaking in front of a friendly audience at the national Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Orlando yesterday, "assailed" Sen. Barack Obama for "saying he still would have opposed the 2007 U.S. troop build-up in Iraq." McCain said, "Even in retrospect, he would choose the path of retreat and failure for America over the path of success and victory," USA Today reports. The AP adds that McCain said Obama "placed his political self-interest ahead of his country's, a theme the Arizona Republican has often repeated." McCain "said Obama's political ambitions have blinded him to reality. He also said Obama has refused to change his positions to reflect new success."
McClatchy adds that McCain "also told the veterans that Obama is driven more by ambition than by ability to be president. 'What's less apparent is the judgment to be commander in chief,' he said. 'And in matters of national security, good judgment will be at a premium in the term of the next president - as we were all reminded of 10 days ago by the events in the nation of Georgia.'"
The Wall Street Journal reports Obama, who addresses the VFW today, meanwhile, "largely ignored the foreign-policy attacks Monday and instead hit" McCain "for not supporting equal pay for women, calling the differences between them on this issue a glimpse into a 'fundamentally different world view of who government should fight for.'"
McCain Explains His Opposition To GI Bill The Miami Herald reports that McCain "was also forced to defend his vote against the new GI bill, which veterans hail as their best benefits package since World War II. ... 'As a political proposition, it would have been much easier for me to have just signed on to what I considered flawed legislation,' McCain said. 'I sought a better bill. I'm proud to say that the result is a law that better serves our military, better serves military families and better serves the interests of our country.'" Fox News Special Report says the attendees gave McCain "a warm reception" and that the Arizona senator "slammed Barack Obama for politicizing veterans' issues without having served in the military himself." McCain said, "I suppose from my opponent's vantage point, veterans' concerns are just one issue to be spun or worked to advantage. This would explain why he also has taken liberties with my position on the GI Bill."
The Politico reports Barack Obama "has emerged from a weeklong family vacation with a little bit of a cold, but also with a more confrontational campaign strategy. It includes going public with new attacks and trying to turn Republican attacks - and even John McCain's own jokes - back at McCain." The Washington Post also reports Obama "tried to assure anxious Democrats that he is ready to fight back against Republican character attacks that grew sharper in his absence." Late last week, the campaign "dismissed the rising concerns of Democrats as arm-chair quarterbacking with little understanding of Obama's strategy. By Monday, not even the candidate could let such concerns slide." ABC World News reports Obama has "been hearing from Democrats who want him to get tough with John McCain." ABC added, "As Barack Obama campaigns in states that Democrat John Kerry lost in 2004, he has noticeably sharpened his attacks on John McCain."
The Denver Post adds that during Obama's 10-day vacation in Hawaii, "circumstances such as the conflict between Russia and Georgia played to McCain's foreign-policy and military strengths. Additionally, in the past few weeks, a number of polls in battleground states started to tighten. Obama's campaign downplayed any possible impact from his hiatus. But make no mistake: He's coming out swinging."
A new Quinnipiac University poll of 1,547 likely voters taken August 12-17 shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47%-42%, down from a 50%-41% lead in a similar July 15 survey. Quinnipiac pollster Maurice Carroll said, "The poll underlines Sen. Barack Obama's strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: He leads overall and he's strong with women, even stronger among young folks and astronomically strong with blacks. Weaknesses: Sen. John McCain beats him among white voters, men, older folks and white Catholics."
The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows Obama leading McCain 46%-43%, up from a 45%-45% tie the previous day. The poll surveyed 2,660 registered voters from August 15-17. The Rasmussen Reports automated daily presidential tracking poll for August 18 shows Obama leading McCain 44%-43%, and 47%-46% including leaners.
In other polls:
McCain, Obama Tied In Ohio Poll A Public Policy Polling (D) survey of 950 likely Ohio voters taken August 12-14 shows Obama and McCain tied at 45% apiece. Previous PPP surveys had shown Obama with narrow leads in the state.
Obama Up 8 In NY A Siena Research Institute poll of 627 registered New York State voters taken August 11-14 shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47%-39%, down from a 50%-37% lead in July and a 51%-33% lead in June.
McCain Up In Georgia A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Georgia voters taken August 14 shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 50%-43%, and 53%-44% including leaners.
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The 110th Congress has been noteworthy for its lack of legislative productivity, but that hasn't stopped House members in tight races from finding a way to increase the number of earmarks. The Wall Street Journal reports in a front page story that the 110th, "whose term officially ends in January, hasn't passed any spending bills or attacked high gasoline prices. But it has used its powers to celebrate watermelons and to decree the origins of the word 'baseball.'" Barring a "burst of legislative activity after Labor Day, this group of 535 men and women will have accomplished a rare feat. In two decades of record keeping, no sitting Congress has passed fewer public laws at this point in the session -- 294 so far -- than this one."
The Hill reports that an analysis by Taxpayers for Common Sense found that "House lawmakers with one eye on their reelection battles have approved more earmarks this year than last year," approving "$290 million more in earmarks" and "about 200 more projects compared to last year." In contrast, "the Senate has green-lighted about 200 fewer earmarks this year."
Despite the largely negative media coverage for US efforts against Al Qaeda and what would appear to be the conventional wisdom in its upcoming September/October issue, the influential journal Foreign Policy's fourth annual Terrorism Index for 2008 found that "signs of progress in Iraq have left America's top foreign-policy experts experiencing a rare sensation: optimism." Each year, the magazine and the Center for American Progress survey "more than 100 top US foreign-policy experts -- Republicans and Democrats alike." This year's index revealed "for the first time" that "the experts have become more optimistic. A year ago, 91 percent of the experts said they believed the world was growing more dangerous for Americans and the United States," while "this year that figure fell to 70 percent."
But Musharraf's Resignation Adds Uncertainty Media reports on the resignation of Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf tend to focus on the murky politics of presidential succession in that country, and to warn of the dangers the current uncertainty poses to US efforts against Al Qaeda. Media analysts also cast Musharraf's exit from the stage as a serious blow to the Bush Administration, which had relied on the former general as a key partner in its anti-terror strategy. McClatchy reports Musharraf's "departure could trigger further instability for the nuclear-armed" US ally "if the country's fractious coalition government can't hold together without its common enemy." Washington "benefited from having former Army chief Musharraf as a one-stop-shop since Sept. 11 for winning Pakistan's co-operation in the fight against al Qaida and the Taliban." The Financial Times reports "confusion over who ultimately wields power in Islamabad highlights difficulties for the US and Pakistan's other partners in co-operating with a state that has nuclear weapons."
The Wall Street Journal reports on its front page, the Administration "did little to keep" Musharraf "in office. US officials came to view him as a spent force after he declared a state of emergency in November in an ultimately unsuccessful bid to sideline opponents." ABC World News reported "US officials didn't try to convince him to stay," even if "they didn't push him out. In fact, they were relieved that he left without a fight."
The Washington Post reports that "while President Bush has been personally supportive of Musharraf -- to a fault, in the view of many experts on Pakistan -- his administration has been gradually preparing for this moment." AFP notes the White House spokesman said, "President Bush appreciates President Musharraf's efforts in the democratic transition of Pakistan as well as his commitment to fighting Al Qaeda and extremist groups." The AP reports that yesterday's remarks by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, offering "'deep gratitude' for Musharraf's decision to join the US-led fight against extremists following the Sept. 11 attacks," and "saying he 'served as a good ally of the United States,'" underlined "how the West has already moved on."
US Concerned About ISI's Terror Ties The New York Times reports, "Washington's chief complaint about Pakistan in recent months has centered on what it contends is substantial support for the Taliban by the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency. ... On a visit to Islamabad last month. Stephen R. Kappes, the CIA's deputy director, gave Prime Minister Gilani evidence of the ISI's involvement with Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, a Taliban operator with close links to Al Qaeda."
FBI investigators presented additional evidence on Monday in an effort to further bolster its case that Dr. Bruce Ivins played a role in the 2001 anthrax attacks. The AP reports, "FBI scientists early on had - but destroyed - the unique strain of anthrax used in the deadly 2001 attacks that years later would lead them to Dr. Bruce Ivins, the government's top suspect who committed suicide three weeks ago." FBI Assistant Director Vahid Majidi said "the initial anthrax sample that Ivins took from his Army lab in February 2002 and gave investigators did not meet court-ordered conditions for its preparation and collection."
CNN's The Situation Room added, "The experts the FBI brought before the press today say the science used in this case is solid, blind tested, peer reviewed, but they acknowledge it will not erase all doubts that Ivins was responsible for the attacks." USA Today notes, "Majidi made his remarks at the most detailed scientific briefing since the Justice Department announced this month that it had solved the nation's worst case of bioterrorism."
The Washington Post reports, "Investigators reverse-engineered the deadly material sent to Senate offices and media organizations and concluded that a single person could have manufactured and dried it, said James P. Burans, director of the National Bioforensics Analysis Center. Yet bureau officials and scientific experts acknowledged that they have not resolved all of the intricacies of the bacterial powder."
The Wall Street Journal reports, "FBI officials say the destruction [of Ivins' anthrax sample] didn't delay their investigation because there were other technical limitations to resolve before the sample could be conclusively analyzed. It took years, officials say, for the microbial-forensics field to develop methods used in analyzing the anthrax."
Under the headline "FBI Presents Anthrax Details But Says It Can't Erase Doubts," the New York Times also notes Majidi said, "I don't think we're ever going to put the suspicions to bed. There's always going to be a spore on a grassy knoll." However, the Times adds, "some scientists remained skeptical. They said it would be months before they were able to evaluate fully the strength of the forensic evidence, and the new process used, in an independent setting."
ABC News reported on its website, "Despite the FBI's decision to destroy the sample, Dr. Paul Keim of Northern Arizona University, who was assisting with the FBI's repository of the Ames strain, had a sample of Ivins' original submissions to the FBI. That initial 2002 sample had tested positive for the genetic markers of the anthrax used in the attacks." NPR's All Things Considered also reported on the FBI briefing.
The AP reports former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, whose office received one of the anthrax-laced letters, said Monday "that FBI evidence against Army scientist Bruce Ivins is convincing, but he is not completely persuaded that the investigation focused on the right person."
The Los Angeles Times reports, "The Russian military said Monday that it had begun pulling back troops that had swarmed into the nation of Georgia last week. But US and Georgian officials and news reports indicated that, at least initially, little had changed on the ground." The New York Times, under the headline "Despite Pledges, Russia Shows No Signs Of Pullout From Georgia," says "Russian soldiers continued digging in to positions along the highway approaching the capital, Tbilisi, showing no sign of pulling back from the severest confrontation between Russia and the West since the collapse of the Soviet Union." McClatchy also reports that yesterday, "the Russian military operated with impunity as its forces moved convoys in and out of the city of Gori and plowed through a police roadblock in this town some 25 miles northwest of Tbilisi."
ABC World News reported from Gori, "This is what the Russian withdrawal looked like, today: armored vehicles tossing Georgian police cars out of their path, and new Russian checkpoints dotting the landscape." The CBS Evening News reported, "The Russians made clear they are going to take their own sweet time pulling out. Russian troops still control a number of Georgian cities, and by nightfall US intelligence had detected no significant withdrawals."
In a story titled "No Sign Of A Russian Departure In Georgia," the Washington Post reports, "In Gori, where Russian troops remained in full control, the sometimes demeaning aspects of occupation were on display during an impromptu news conference conducted Monday by David Kalekashvili, Georgia's state minister for regional development. 'The Russians have to keep their promises. This is a never-ending story and there is not a single sign that they will begin the withdrawal as they said they would,' Kalekashvili shouted, his face reddening."
Rice's Rhetoric "Extremely Blunt" AFP reports Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Monday for NATO to reaffirm Georgia's bid for membership and thwart Russia's 'strategic objective' of stopping the Alliance's expansion." Rice "arrived in Brussels Monday for crisis talks with NATO allies on Georgia."
McClatchy reports Rice told reporters "the ministers also would reaffirm NATO's support for former Soviet bloc nations like Poland and the Baltic states. Though now alliance members, those nations have been deeply unsettled by what they saw as a tepid Western response to a major step by Moscow to reassert its influence over its former empire."
The CBS Evening News reported Rice "was very forceful and actually extremely blunt on the subject of Georgia. In terms of the Russian withdrawal, she said it didn't take Russian forces that long to get into Georgia, it shouldn't take them that long to get out." The AP notes Rice also "said the United States and its allies would not allow Russia to draw a 'new line' through Europe and intimidate former Soviet republics and former satellite states."
Meanwhile, McClatchy reports Secretary Rice "warned Moscow" yesterday that "it is playing 'a very dangerous game' by resuming Cold War-era strategic bomber patrols close to the Alaskan coast." Said the Secretary, "Russia is a state that is unfortunately using the one tool that it has always used whenever it wishes to deliver a message and that's its military power. ... That's not the way to deal in the 21st century."
The Financial Times reports "Nato's 26 foreign ministers are determined to present a united front on Tuesday in expressing continued support for Georgia's ultimate membership of the western alliance and insisting that Russian troops complete a full withdrawal from Georgian territory outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia."
The Los Angeles Times reports, "Signing a missile-defense deal with its good friend the United States has earned Poland nothing less than the threat of nuclear attack from Russia -- a threat that might not sound so empty these days, given Moscow's bloody battle with Georgia." The Christian Science Monitor reports, "Russia's strident objections to the deal between the United States and Poland on a missile defense system are largely unfounded. That's the view of American officials and analysts, who say Moscow's aim in the controversy is to divide NATO and drive a wedge between the US and its allies."
The Hill reports, "House and Senate leaders should invite Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to address a joint session of Congress, according to bipartisan members of the Congressional Georgia Caucus." USA Today reports Georgia "has deep economic and emotional ties with the United States, so much so that its beleaguered president, Mikheil Saakashvili, attended Columbia and George Washington law schools."
Fox Special Report reported Gen. David Petraeus has "about a month to go in his current assignment as head of coalition forces in Iraq. He'll take over US Central Command after that." With violence "down to its lowest levels in almost four years...Petraeus says more hard work remains to be done now that the sectarian bloodletting has been stopped. With the improved capability of the Iraqi army in progress on the political front, he said that the Iraqi government has started covering more of the reconstruction costs." Petraeus "added a large dose of cautious pragmatism saying it's far too premature to claim that the fragile gains are permanent."
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The late-night talk shows were either re-runs or preempted by coverage of the Olympic Games last night.
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