Some observers and media analysts are casting the recent crisis in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia as an indication that US power is on the wane in the post-Cold War world. The Financial Times says the "crisis has dealt a setback to US efforts to draw Georgia and other former Soviet states into the western sphere of influence and plunged an already-fraught US-Russian relationship into deeper disarray." Moreover, "some critics believe the US administration helped sow the seeds of conflict by pushing too aggressively for Georgia to be brought within the western fold at a time when the US and Russia are at odds over a range of security issues in the region."
The Christian Science Monitor, for example, reports, "Russia's blitz into the former Soviet republic of Georgia has exposed starkly the limits of US military power and geopolitical influence in the era following the invasion of Iraq." McClatchy reports "there's also concern that Russia, stoked by its military success in Georgia, could move to re-exert its influence on other parts of its former empire, including Ukraine." The Christian Science Monitor says in a second story that there is "an air of satisfaction in Moscow over what appears to be a crushing Russian victory in its muscular, five-day long intervention." The Washington Post runs a similar story under the headline "In Russia, Nationalist Pride Prevails." The Los Angeles Times also reports on its front page, "By sending in its troops Russia seized the upper hand strategically in dealing with countries around its periphery." Georgia, says the Times, "appears to have all but given up his bid to reclaim two disputed regions on the Russian border." The Washington Times runs a similar report.
The US and its allies, reports the AP, were "scrambling" yesterday "to find ways to punish Russia," but found themselves "with scant leverage in the face of an emboldened Moscow." The New York Times reports the Bush Administration "is expected to cancel an upcoming naval exercise with Russian navy vessels and to press NATO likewise to prohibit a Russian warship from joining a separate alliance exercise." The Wall Street Journal notes "two US officials" yesterday "warned that Russia risks international isolation if it persists with the fighting," and AFP quotes "two senior US officials" saying the US is "mulling responses to Russia's attacks on Georgia that range from cancelling multilateral naval exercises to reconsidering Moscow's place in global bodies."
ABC World News interviewed Secretary of State Rice last night. Asked about possible consequences for Russia, the Secretary said: "This isn't 1968. The predecessor state of Russia, the Soviet Union, didn't care about its international reputation because it wasn't attempting to integrate into international organizations. It wasn't attempting to be a part of the prosperous and forward-looking Europe. The Russians have said that they do want to be a part of that prosperous and forward-looking international community. And, frankly, they're doing great damage to their ability to do that." The Washington Post, meanwhile, reports the Bush Administration also "suggested yesterday that an apparent cease-fire in Georgia came about because Moscow feared it would be banished from Western-dominated international economic and political institutions if it did not stop its 'aggression' in the former Soviet republic."
The New York Times reports that "one month ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi, Georgia, for a high-profile visit that was planned to accomplish two very different goals." During a private dinner, Rice's aides say "she warned...Saakashvili...not to get into a military conflict with Russia that Georgia could not win." But publicly, the Times adds, "Rice struck a different tone, one of defiant support for Georgia in the face of Russian pressure." The "accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears."
Russian War Effort Included Cyber Attacks The New York Times reports on its front page that Internet experts in the United States said cyber attacks, believed to have been launched by Russia, "against Georgia's Internet infrastructure began as early as July 20, with coordinated barrages of millions of requests -- known as distributed denial of service, or D.D.O.S., attacks -- that overloaded and effectively shut down Georgian servers." But "as it turns out, the July attack may have been a dress rehearsal for an all-out cyberwar once the shooting started between Georgia and Russia. According to Internet technical experts, it was the first time a known cyberattack had coincided with a shooting war."
The Christian Science Monitor reports the attacks "have deluged the websites of the president, various ministries, and news agencies with bogus traffic." Though "some in the cybersecurity community say this may be nothing more than grass-roots 'hactivism,'" others, however, "warn that the attack highlights the leverage some countries have gained over adversaries by laying down fiber-optic cables and providing cheap Internet services."
Lavrov Defends Russia's Response Writing in the Financial Times, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says that "this is not a conflict of Russia's making; this is not a conflict of Russia's choosing." But "last Friday, after the world's leaders had arrived at the Beijing Olympics, Georgian troops launched an all-out assault on the region of South Ossetia" and "there can be little surprise, therefore, that Russia responded to this unprovoked assault on its citizens by launching a military incursion into South Ossetia."
House Leaders Condemn "Russian Invasion" The Hill reports, "In a rare joint statement, House leaders of both parties on Tuesday condemned Russia's decision to send troops into Georgia. 'The bipartisan leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives stands united in condemning -- in the strongest possible terms -- the recent Russian invasion of the sovereign state of Georgia,' said Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.)."
WSJournal: Bush "Missing In Action" The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page says this morning, "US credibility is again on the line as the Bush Administration stumbles to respond to the Russian invasion of Georgia. So far the Administration has been missing in action, to put it mildly."
The Washington Post reports al Qaeda has "exploited recent political turmoil in Pakistan to strengthen its foothold along the country's border with Afghanistan, a top US counterterrorism official said yesterday in an assessment that also warned of a heightened risk of attack during the upcoming US election season." Despite "the loss of key leaders to US strikes, Osama bin Laden continues to enjoy a haven in the border region and has managed to deepen alliances with a wide range of Islamist groups from South Asia to the Middle East," said Ted Gistaro, the national intelligence officer for transnational threats.
The New York Times reports senior Bush Administration officials last year "said much of Al Qaeda's resurgence was made possible by a disastrous cease-fire that Mr. Musharraf brokered with tribal leaders in September 2006. Yet the grim intelligence assessment Mr. Gistaro presented on Tuesday indicated that American spy agencies believed that the Qaeda threat metastasized long after that cease-fire ended."
Bloomberg News reports Gistaro "went further than Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell in describing al-Qaeda's recruitment of operatives to attack the West." DNI spokesman Richard Willing, notes the Baltimore Sun, "said Gistaro's unclassified remarks were based on existing intelligence estimates and open-source reporting." Gistaro, adds UPI, also said yesterday that top al Qaeda leaders "have devoted nearly half their airtime to defending the group's legitimacy. This defensive tone continues a trend observed since at least last summer and reflects concern over allegations by militant leaders and religious scholars that al Qaeda and its affiliates have violated the Islamic laws of war, particularly in Iraq and North Africa."
Top Al Qaeda Leader In Afghanistan Killed The Washington Post also reports that Gistaro's remarks "coincided with an unconfirmed report of the death of al-Qaeda's top commander in Afghanistan. Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, commonly known as Sheik Saeed, was reported by Pakistani news outlets to have been killed in a clash with Pakistani soldiers." US intelligence officials, however, "said they could not confirm the report."
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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicated this week that she may allow the House to vote on a measure to lift the moratorium on offshore oil exploration. However, Pelosi indicated the measure would be tied to Democratic priorities that Republicans would be unlikely to support. The Hill reports Pelosi "may be ready to allow a vote on offshore drilling, but that doesn't mean she's going to make it easy on the Republicans who've been goading her for weeks on energy." Pelosi "stressed that it would have to be part of a larger energy package. And the contents of that package might include some items that would be tough for Republicans and the energy industry to swallow, like a renewable portfolio standard and the Democrats' signature 'use it or lose it' legislation." Fox News Special Report said that the bill Pelosi will put forth will "have some measures Republicans deeply oppose and Speaker Pelosi in that interview hinted at one of them -- a so-called windfall profits tax."
Some Republicans Deride "Gang Of 10" Energy Deal The Hill reports, "Members of the bipartisan Senate 'Gang of 10' should embrace energy legislation introduced by House Republicans or face opposition from House GOP for a 'fatally flawed' proposal, a member of House leadership wrote in a letter to the Senate group on Tuesday." In his letter, Republican Policy Committee Chairman Thaddeus McCotter "said House Republicans would oppose the New Energy Reform Act in its current form and criticized the bill as too narrow an approach that will raise prices on consumers."
The Wall Street Journal reports, "Republicans have used the offshore-drilling issue to paint Democrats as out of touch with ordinary Americans and beholden to environmental groups that oppose any relaxation of the current drilling ban," but "the drilling issue could lose its power as an electoral wedge if both parties agree to the concept put forward by a group of Republicans and Democrats. Their proposal would open additional acreage in the Gulf of Mexico off Florida's western coast to drilling, and also allow Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia to 'opt in' to drilling off their shores if their legislatures approve."
The AP reports Attorney General Michael Mukasey said on Tuesday that former Justice Department officials "will not face prosecution for letting improper political considerations drive hirings of prosecutors, immigration judges and other career government lawyers." Mukasey "used his sharpest words yet to criticize the senior leaders who took part in or failed to stop illegal hiring practices during the tenure of his predecessor, Alberto Gonzales." The New York Times notes Mukasey "condemned the political abuses in his most forceful language to date, saying 'the system failed,'" and "acknowledged that some critics and commentators had called on the Justice Department to take what he called 'more drastic steps,' including prosecuting those at fault and firing those hired through flawed procedures."
The Los Angeles Times reports Mukasey said "the aides violated civil service laws and department regulation...but they did not commit crimes that could send them to jail." The Washington Post, meanwhile, says "the speech came two weeks after the Justice Department inspector general and Office of Professional Responsibility reported that former officials had committed misconduct and flouted civil service laws by using ideological factors to screen candidates for permanent jobs."
Under the headline "Mr. Mukasey In Denial," the New York Times editorializes, "Conservatives like to talk about personal responsibility, but...Mukasey does not seem to think it applies to the Bush administration."
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Sen. John McCain yesterday continued to play up his hard-line opposition to Russia's assault on Georgia yesterday. Fox News reported that in Pennsylvania yesterday, McCain "said he'd just spoken with the embattled president of the Republic of Georgia," adding that McCain said, "I told him that I know I speak for every American when I say to him today we are all Georgians." Fox added that in an interview, "McCain suggested the US did not adequately recognize Russia's threat." McCain said, "I'm not sure that we did. Obviously I did and I said they shouldn't stay in the G8. And I said that I thought that Vladimir Putin was most interested in restoring the old Russian empire." The CBS Evening News briefly noted that McCain "said the Russian invasion was meant to send a signal to nations that are friendly to the West. Barack Obama, vacationing in Hawaii, put out a statement repeating his call for Russia to stop its attacks."
The Washington Post notes McCain's "rhetoric has become increasingly sharp. On Tuesday, he called Russia an unrepentant combatant against a 'brave little nation' and compared Russian 'killing' in the 'tiny little democracy' to Soviet aggression during the Cold War era." Meanwhile, Obama, vacationing in Hawaii, "has confronted the crisis in Georgia in more modulated tones, initially sounding closer to Bush than McCain, but later condemning the Russian aggression in strong terms, saying there was 'no possible justification' for it."
McCain is seen as having an advantage on the issue by many in the media. The Los Angeles Times says the Georgia war "has given McCain another stage" to tout his longer foreign policy resume. McCain "has visited Georgia several times and has been friendly with" President Mikheil Saakashvili. The AP adds that the issue "plays to what polls show is his strength: national security."
The issue also plays into a longer term interest of McCain's. In a piece titled "John McCain's Long War On Russia," The Politico reports that "while virtually every other world leader called for calm in Georgia last Thursday morning," McCain "did something he's done many times over his career in public life: He condemned Russia. ... Obama, Bush and others made their shifts in tone as the brutal, disproportional nature of Russia's response began to become clear. But McCain's confrontational stance on the Caucasus crisis stems from a long, personal skepticism of Russian intentions, one that dates back to the Cold War and which eased only briefly in the early 1990s."
McClatchy reports Barack Obama's campaign "unveiled a group of disaffected high-profile Republicans on Tuesday who he hopes will help him win the support of Republican voters in swing states." The Financial Times says Obama "netted the endorsement of three prominent Republicans, including Jim Leach and Lincoln Chafee, both of whom lost their congressional seats to Democratic opponents in the 2006 mid-term elections." The announcement "boosts the ranks of so-called 'Obamacans' and is likely to fuel speculation about the possibility of bigger names such as Colin Powell, former secretary of state, and Chuck Hagel, the Republican senator for Nebraska also endorsing the Democratic nominee." The Wall Street Journal says the group's "reasons for crossing party lines are diverse, ranging from the war in Iraq to overspending in Washington, and signal unhappiness not just with the candidacy of Republican Sen. John McCain, but with the Republican Party as a whole."
The Hill reports Leach and Chaffee "touted" Obama as the candidate "who represents the traditional conservatism that they feel has been forgotten under President Bush" and linked McCain to Bush's policies. The Los Angeles Times reports that Leach "said he was concerned about the 'current philosophy of government' and worried that...McCain would be 'more of the same.'"
However, despite the speculation that Hagel might come out and back Obama, CNN reported on its website that Hagel "won't endorse either major-party presidential candidate in 2008, a spokesman said Tuesday," and the AP runs a piece this morning saying that Hagel is "anathema to much of the progressive base" of the Democratic Party.
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Campaigning in York, Pennsylvania, yesterday, John McCain sought to highlight a Barack Obama gaffe that Hillary Clinton get heavy play out of in the primary. The Washington Times reports McCain "reminded" Pennsylvanians yesterday that Obama "said the state's small-town voters 'cling to guns and religion' because they are 'bitter,' a gaffe that possibly contributed to Mr. Obama's loss in the state primary and might haunt his general election campaign in this battleground."
Meanwhile, the CBS Evening News says that McCain is in fact following a strategy laid out by a key Clinton advisor early in the primary. CBS reported, "The question was asked over and over once the battle ended. Why did Senator Clinton lose? Now, ' The Atlantic' magazine has published leaked memos from inside the Clinton campaign that detail the decisions and indecisions that shaped the campaign, including bitter internal fights about how to position the candidate. But the most eye-opening revelation, one directly related to the fall campaign, is that Clinton strategist Mark Penn was arguing that Obama had to be attacked as an outsider, a stranger, an alien." CBS added, "To look now at some of John McCain's TV and web ads, it is almost as if his campaign is following Penn's outsider strategy to the letter. For instance, the constant reference to Obama as a celebrity."
The Washington Post adds that McCain camp "appears to have less hesitation than Clinton's did in going after Obama. For the past few weeks, it has run a series of negative ads -- some humorous, some not so -- that portray Obama as a famous but empty suit who is wrong on many of the issues Americans care most about. The ads, at a minimum, may be getting under Obama's skin. It's possible they are doing real damage." The Post adds, "Just how far McCain's campaign will pursue this strategy isn't clear. There are risks for him, just as there were for Clinton."
The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll of 2,656 registered voters taken August 9-11 shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47%-42%. The Rasmussen Reports automated daily presidential tracking poll for August 12 shows Obama leading McCain 45%-43%, and 48%-46% including leaners.
McCain Up By 4 In North Carolina A SurveyUSA automated poll of 655 likely voters taken August 9-11 for WTVD-TV shows McCain leading Obama 49%-45 in North Carolina.
Obama Holds Narrow Lead In Pennsylvania The Philadelphia Daily News reports this morning that a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Obama leading McCain 44%-36% among registered voters and 46%-41% among likely voters. The poll surveyed 641 Pennsylvanians from August 4-11. The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review says, "Obama has pulled even among voters in the conservative central part of the state, a worrisome sign for McCain, said G. Terry Madonna, director of Franklin & Marshall's Keystone Poll, conducted between Aug. 4 and Sunday."
Obama Up By 10 In New Jersey A new Quinnipiac University poll of 1,468 likely New Jersey voters taken August 4-10 shows Obama leading McCain 51%-41%.
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Craig Ferguson: "John McCain has been accused of stealing policy ideas from Wikipedia, which is ridiculous!" Everybody "knows McCain doesn't know how to use the Internet," so how "could you even accuse him of that?"
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