A new USA Today /Gallup national poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 47%-44% among registered voters. However, when the sample is reduced to only those likely to vote, McCain jumps to a 49%-45% lead. The survey, taken July 25-28, "showed a surge since last month in likely Republican voters and suggested Obama's trip may have helped energize voters who favor McCain." The poll surveyed 900 registered voters and 791 likely voters.
Other Polls Show Obama Up The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 48%-40%, down from a 49%-40% lead yesterday. The survey polled 2,674 registered voters from July 25-27. The Rasmussen Report automated daily presidential tracking poll for July 28 shows that while Obama opened a wider lead over the weekend, it closed again in yesterday's survey of 3,000 registered voters. Obama now leads McCain 45%-42%, and 48%-45% if leaners are included. A Democracy Corps (D) poll of 1,004 likely voters taken July 21-24 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-45% in a two-way race or 49%-43% if Bob Barr (L) and Ralph Nader are included.
Trip Not A Plus For Obama? The Gallup poll, along with polls from battleground states and other national polls, are starting to generate commentary in the media on whether or not Obama's foreign swing in fact helped his campaign. Fox News' Special Report reported, "The political effect of Obama's tour of the Middle East and three European capitals...appears to be negligible. ... Late last month McCain trailed Obama among likely voters by six points." Fox News added "the Real Clear Politics average of all recent national polls shows a tight race with Obama leading McCain by just over three points about where he was before his overseas odyssey began." On MSNBC's Hardball, NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell said the trip was "too much like a tour of a president, when he is -- he had to say, I'm not a president, I'm just a candidate, but that almost seemed a little bit disingenuous because he did seem like a touring head of state." On Fox News' Special Report roundtable, Fred Barnes said, "I think people are recognizing that he's just a regular old pol. He's a liberal one. He's an extremely well-spoken one. He carried off a great trip to Europe that was well staged and he didn't say anything foolish at all. But he spins and quibbles and makes up things and denies things and pretends like he says things that he didn't, and all this stuff that we have seen politicians do so many times."
NBC Nightly News reported that "Republican sources close to" Sen. John McCain "say he appears to be down to a short list of three: Mitt Romney, former Congressman and Bush administration official Rob Portman, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, with whom McCain is said to have good chemistry." The Washington Times, however, reports that "prominent evangelical leaders" are warning McCain not to pick Romney, a Mormon, while the Reno Gazette-Journal says that when McCain arrives in Nevada for a campaign stop today, "most local operatives" are likely to tell him that Romney is the obvious choice.
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The Politico reports this morning that Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) is emerging as one the Obama campaign's veepstakes "finalists," "sources familiar with conversations in Richmond and in Chicago said." Kaine "ranks very, very high on the short list," according to "a source who has spoken recently to senior Obama aides about Kaine." On its front page, the Washington Post adds that Kaine "has told close associates that he has had 'very serious' conversations" with Obama about joining the ticket and "has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to" the Virginia governor. The Post adds "Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden are also being seriously vetted by Obama's campaign staff, according to sources with knowledge of the process."
Both Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain turned their attention to the economy yesterday. The New York Times reports that Obama yesterday in DC met "with a group of 20 prominent economists, former government officials and business and labor leaders to discuss problems like vanishing jobs and rising food and fuel costs." The Times notes participants "included prominent Democratic figures," but also "two people who served under President Bush during his first term also attended: Paul H. O'Neill, the former Treasury secretary, and William H. Donaldson, a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission." The Wall Street Journal reports that Obama said during the meeting, "The challenges we're facing could not be more critical and if we want to meet them then we can't afford to keep on doing the same things we've been doing over the last several years. We have to change course and we're gong to have to take some immediate action." However, the Los Angeles Times added, "Participants in the meeting said Obama spent most of the time listening."
The New York Daily News reports that McCain, meanwhile, "bashed his opponent's economic prescriptions. 'Sen. Obama will not commit to balancing our budget, does not propose to control spending and has only one answer to every challenge: Raise taxes,' he said." ABC World News reported: "On an oil derrick near Bakersfield, California, today, Senator John McCain used a dramatic location to make his case that drilling for oil in the US will help the economy." McCain said, "We know that hard-working Americans, today, are suffering from high gas prices." Fox News' Special Report adds that McCain also stressed that drilling had a significant upside in the short term, saying, "there's abundant resources in the view of the people who are in the business that could be exploited within a period of months. So offshore drilling is something we have to do. I'm sorry that Senator Obama opposes it."
Sen. John McCain, after struggling for media attention last week, got a fair bit of coverage yesterday, but not for an issue he wanted. A widely-distributed AP story that was picked up by over 500 news outlets reports McCain said yesterday "he had had a small patch of skin removed from his face and biopsied as part of a regular checkup with his dermatologist." Bloomberg News reports, "A McCain aide at first said the spot was removed as a precaution because of McCain's history of skin cancer and there was no indication of cancer or any health problem." The story was also picked up by all three nightly news programs last night, with NBC Nightly News, for example, reporting McCain "said his doctors do not suspect a recurrence of melanoma."
McCain, who has faced questions about his age and health from some quarters, moved quickly to reassure that there was no health issue. The New York Times reports, "Later in the day," the McCain campaign "released a statement from Michael Yardley, the chairman of public affairs at the Mayo Clinic, in which he described the removal of the spot as a 'routine minor procedure.'" However, that didn't seem to completely kill speculation on the issue -- CNN's The Situation Room, noting that McCain's aides were "downplaying" the issue, added, "this is a reminder that...McCain is a cancer survivor. We do know that his doctors, a couple of months ago, gave him a completely clean bill of health, but it also is a reminder that he is a 71, almost 72-year- old man, and could be the oldest person ever elected. And that is something that we know that voters have concerns about."
The New York Times reports that Sen. John McCain "has sought to keep alive a story about how Senator Barack Obama called off a visit to American troops recuperating from war wounds at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany," and yesterday, rolled out a new surrogate on the issue. In a statement released by the McCain campaign, retired soldier Michael J. Durant said "the stop 'was canceled after it became clear that campaign staff and the traveling press corps would not be allowed to accompany Senator Obama.'" The Boston Globe reports Durant is a "a former Army helicopter pilot who was shot down in Somalia in 1993 and recuperated at the medical center Obama was scheduled to visit Friday until his campaign nixed it, saying it did not want to bring politics to the bedside." The New Hampshire Union Leader reports Durant, "who was at the center of the infamous 'Black Hawk Down' incident in Somalia" in 1993, "questioned...Obama's 'judgment' and 'priorities' for canceling a visit to a military hospital in Germany last week. Durant was beaten and held hostage in Somalia for 11 days after his Black Hawk helicopter crashed in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, shot down by a rocket-propelled grenade. He was the sole survivor as two other soldiers died in the ensuing battle."
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The New York Daily News reports this morning that Sen. Barack Obama is offering Sen. Hillary Clinton "a prime-time speaking slot" during the 2nd night of the Democratic National Convention, her former campaign chief Terry McAuliffe said yesterday. McAuliffe "was not supposed to reveal Clinton is getting a choice gig. The Obama campaign refused to discuss McAuliffe's slip of the tongue."
Sen. Barack Obama's campaign and the Democratic National Committee are expected to unveil a $20 million effort to mobilize Hispanic voters to turnout in key battleground states, the Washington Post reports this morning. The cash "will be spent on niche advertising and other outreach, along with mobilization efforts aimed at identifying, registering and turning out new Democratic voters." Meanwhile, the Rocky Mountain News reports this morning that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D), whose mother is Mexican, is selling the idea that Obama is a "minority" and "he's one of us" to Hispanics as he campaigns for him. The News notes that Obama "has tried to rise above racial politics," and that Richardson's appeal would seem to be at odds with that.
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USA Today reports US combat deaths "in Iraq appear headed to the lowest monthly total since the start of the war as the top US general there said overall violence is declining toward 'normal' levels." Gen. David Petraeus "cautioned, however, that the progress still could be reversed." On ABC World News, Gen. Petraeus said, "The al Qaeda threat in Baghdad is much reduced. But, as we have repeatedly said and cautioned against, there will be further attacks. Al Qaeda remains dangerous and lethal."
Petraeus' remarks, however, come as another wave of suicide bombings left at least 51 dead in Baghdad and Kirkuk. The Washington Post reports the attacks, attributed to "four female suicide bombers," killed "at least 51 people...and more than 250 were injured -- one of the worst days of violence in recent months." The Los Angeles Times reports, "The bloodshed occurred at a time when Iraq had been enjoying a four-year low in violence. The fall in attacks prompted senior U.S. officials in Iraq to describe Sunni militants as a spent force no longer capable of toppling Iraq's Shiite-led government." The Wall Street Journal notes "Iraqi authorities said they suspected al Qaeda in Iraq was behind the three Baghdad explosions on Monday." The New York Times and AP run similar reports.
Petraeus' Staff Disputes Dowd's Quotation On its opinion page, the New York Times says that "in her column last Wednesday, Maureen Dowd wrote that a Democratic lawmaker privately asked Gen. David Petraeus why there weren't more Democrats in the military, and he replied, 'There are more than you think.' Col. Steven Boylan of the general's public affairs office in Baghdad, which was not contacted for comment, says the quotation 'is in error as he never made nor would make such a statement.'"
Perle May Enter Iraq Oil Business The Wall Street Journal reports, "Influential former Pentagon official Richard Perle has been exploring going into the oil business in Iraq and Kazakhstan, according to people with knowledge of the matter and documents outlining possible deals." Perle, a leading "neoconservative" advocate of the war in Iraq, "has been discussing a possible deal with officials of northern Iraq's Kurdistan regional government, including its Washington envoy, according to these people and the documents."
NBC Nightly News reported, "The Federal budget deficit for next year will come in at a staggering $482 billion. That is the biggest deficit in American history. It could get worse, of course, if the economy continues to worsen." The CBS Evening News, which led with the story, said "the White House estimated today President Bush will leave his successor a federal budget deficit approaching half a trillion dollars, $75 billion more than it was projecting just a few months ago. Both John McCain and Barack Obama were quick to blame Mr. Bush for the red ink." CNN's The Situation Room reported, "It's a mind-boggling number. ... It equals roughly $1,500 for every person in the country. It's a record amount of red ink, almost eight years after...Bush inherited a budget surplus from the Clinton Administration."
The Washington Post reports the deficit "will leave the next president little room to fulfill costly campaign promises." White House budget director Jim Nussle "said unexpectedly slow economic growth, sharp declines in housing prices and an unanticipated increase in inflation would help drive next year's tide of red ink close to a half trillion, up sharply from February's $407 billion estimate."
The AP also says the projected figure "is sure to rise after adding the tens of billions of dollars in additional Iraq war funding it doesn't include, and the total could be higher yet if the economy fails to recover as the administration predicts." The Wall Street Journal reports "such a large deficit is likely to cause concern for central bankers, and would give ammunition to congressional opponents of the next president. Those factors could combine to put a squeeze on the incoming administration's agenda." Notwithstanding the revised estimate, the AFP reports White House Press Secretary Dana Perino "said the White House still stood by its goal of achieving a balanced budget by 2012, although the Bush administration departs office in January."
McCain, Obama Criticize Bush USA Today reports John McCain and Barack Obama "both criticized the White House on Monday." McCain "pledged to 'reverse the profligate spending' of the administration; Obama's economic policy director Jason Furman said McCain's tax-cutting plans would 'continue the same Bush economic policies that put our economy on this dangerous path.'"
The Hill notes McCain also "said his economic proposals would balance the federal budget by the end of his first term as president, and create more jobs and higher pay for US workers," while Obama "would raise taxes, but not nearly enough to cover his spending plans or lower the budget deficit."
The Hill reports, "Republicans in Congress attempted to point the finger at Democrats." Sen. Judd Gregg, "the senior Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, argued that the deficit has soared because of Democrats' failure to offset new spending."
The Los Angeles Times reports former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' top aides "employed a political and ideological litmus test to weed out candidates for career and other positions at the Justice Department, an internal department report concluded Monday." The department's Office of Inspector General and Office of Professional Responsibility found that "former Gonzales aides Monica Goodling and Kyle Sampson violated department policies and federal civil-service laws."
ABC World News, the only network to mention to controversy, reported the DOJ "aides broke federal law and department policy and committed misconduct, by using political or ideological considerations when screening candidates for judgeships and career jobs at Justice. There was no indication, though, that Gonzales knew of the activity."
The Wall Street Journal reports, "Most problems, according to investigators, occurred in a system devised by Mr. Sampson and followed by Ms. Goodling and others to screen candidates for immigration judges. The process relied principally on recommendations from the White House and Republican members of Congress, according to the probe." It is "unlikely that the two, who have left the department, will face criminal charges for actions cited in the report because the laws that investigators allege were violated are civil statutes and don't carry criminal penalties."
The Financial Times, however, says the officials "violated federal law," and adds that "in one case, an experienced terrorism prosecutor who was considered by some in the DoJ as 'head and shoulders' above other candidates was denied a counter-terrorism job by Ms Goodling because his wife was active in Democratic politics." The New York Times reports "another prosecutor was rejected for a job in part because she was thought to be a lesbian. And a Republican lawyer got high marks at his job interview because he was found to be sufficiently conservative on the core issues of 'god, guns + gays.'"
The Washington Post reports, "Current and former department lawyers said they were appalled by the deep reach of the political hiring, which affected hundreds of rejected job seekers and as many as 40 immigration judges who were recruited under the political criteria."
The AP notes that according to the probe, Goodling asked "at least some" of the candidates, "What is it about George W. Bush that makes you want to serve him?" Others, adds the AP, "were asked about their views on abortion and gay marriage." Roll Call reports, "The report states that of the more than 40 candidates for judgeships during the review period, 'we did not find any examples of a candidate who had been recommended by a Democratic Member of Congress.'"
The Washington Post reports President Bush on Monday "approved the execution of an Army private convicted of a string of vicious murders and rapes in North Carolina, marking the first time in half a century that a president has affirmed a military death sentence." The President "agreed to a request from the secretary of the Army to execute Ronald A. Gray, who has been on death row at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., since 1988."
The Politico reports, "White House Press Secretary Dana Perino said in a statement on Monday evening" that the President "accepted the recommendation of the Secretary of the Army to approve a sentence of death...affirming the sentence that resulted from a general court martial for multiple charges of murder and rape committed while serving as a member of the Armed Services."
The AP reports, "Members of the US military have been executed throughout history, but just 10 have been executed by presidential approval since 1951 when the Uniform Code of Military Justice, the military's modern-day legal system, was enacted into law." The New York Times also covers the story this morning.
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Jay Leno: "Barack Obama back from his big European tour. Did you see him in Europe? People were cheering him, holding up signs, blowing him kisses. And that was just the American media covering the story."
Jay Leno: "The hooker who brought down" former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, "has just signed a $2 million deal to write a book, which is bad news for...Spitzer. Out of all the hookers in the world, he gets the one that's the author."
David Letterman: Over the "last ten days," Barack Obama "was traveling overseas, campaigning in Europe and everywhere." And this trip was "so successful" that Obama "is actually thinking about campaigning here in the United States."
Conan O'Brien: "Yesterday, Barack Obama visited a doctor, and he received treatment for a sore hip. Yeah, after hearing about it, John McCain said, 'If he wants it replaced, I know just the guy.'"
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