ABC World News reports that during a press conference in Israel yesterday, Sen. Barack Obama "was asked repeatedly about comments he made to ABC News Terry Moran Monday in which he stood by his original opposition to the surge, despite its success." Obama said, "We don't know what would have happened if I, if the plan that I put forward in January 2007, to put more pressure on the Iraqis to arrive at a political reconciliation, to begin a phased withdrawal, what would have happened had we pursued that strategy."
Obama made the same point in an interview with the CBS Evening News, where Katie Couric asked him, "Do you think the level of security in Iraq would exist today without the surge?" Obama said, "I have no idea what would have happened had we applied my approach, which was to put more pressure on the Iraqis to arrive at a political reconciliation. So this is all hypotheticals. What I can say is that there is no doubt that our US troops have contributed to a reduction in violence in Iraq."
Numbers Said To Show Iraq "Much Safer During The Surge" The CBS Evening News reported, "The numbers do indicate that Iraq became much safer during the surge. Civilian deaths are down from two thousand last August to four hundred and ninety this past June. Attacks against coalition forces, down from fifteen hundred a week in June of 2007 to about two hundred a week now. That's an eighty percent drop. And fewer US troops were killed in May and June in Iraq than in Afghanistan."
Obama At Odds With Petraeus On "Surge," Pullout Plan NBC Nightly News showed Obama saying yesterday, "My view, based on the advice of military experts, is that we can redeploy safely in sixteen months so that our combat brigades are out of Iraq in 2010." However, reported NBC, "those experts don't include" General David Petraeus, and "there were other military commanders on the ground, including the commander, who had some concerns about the possible risks associated with that." Obama: "What I emphasized to him, if I were in his shoes, I would probably feel the same way. But my job as a candidate for president and a potential commander in chief extends beyond Iraq." The Washington Post adds that Obama challenged the notion that he had to follow the advice of his military commanders, saying, "The notion is, is that either I do exactly what my military commanders tell me to do or I'm ignoring their advice. No, I'm factoring in their advice but placing it in this broader strategic framework...that's required."
The AP notes Obama's remarks on Petraeus "drew criticism from Tucker Bounds, spokesman for Republican candidate John McCain. 'By admitting that his plan for withdrawal places him at odds with Gen. David Petraeus, Barack Obama has made clear that his goal remains unconditional withdrawal rather than securing the victory our troops have earned,' the aide said."
Obama Said to Have Shifted Debate, Declaring Iraq War "All But Over" The Washington Post reports Obama "has remade the campaign's foreign policy playing field, neatly sidestepping Republican charges that he has been naive and wrong on Iraq and moving to a broader, post-Iraq focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. In essence, Obama has declared the war in Iraq all but over."
In what media reports are casting as some his most abrasive rhetoric in this presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain yesterday strongly criticized Sen. Barack Obama's Iraq policies. ABC World News reported McCain traveled to Rochester, New Hampshire on Tuesday, "using some of his harshest language to date...blasting Obama on his opposition to the surge in Iraq and on the subject of troop withdrawal." ABC added that McCain "began with a blistering attack on Barack Obama over Iraq, at one point, accusing Obama of putting personal ambition before country." McCain was shown saying, "I had the courage and the judgment to say that I would rather lose a political campaign than lose a war. It seems to me that Senator Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign." NBC Nightly News also noted McCain said "the exit of American troops should not be dictated by a set calendar." McCain repeated the charge in an interview with the CBS Evening News. McCain also was asked about Afghanistan, and said, "I guarantee you, if we had failed in Iraq and been defeated in Iraq, our challenges in Afghanistan would have been dramatically complicated and worsened."
The New York Times adds that advisers to McCain "went further in a conference call on Tuesday when Randy Scheunemann, Mr. McCain's chief foreign policy aide, sarcastically asked if Mr. Obama's foreign policy credentials were based on his attendance at a junior high school in Indonesia or a trip he took to Pakistan during spring break in college. Mr. Scheunemann added that Mr. Obama 'seems to forget that we have elections in this country, not coronations.'"
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Last night, once again, all three network newscasts led with Sen. Barack Obama's overseas trip, devoting a total of 12:25 to the Democratic candidate and 6:30 to his opponent, Sen. John McCain. The McCain camp is arguing that media coverage is overly sympathetic toward Obama and has taken to mocking some of the reports from the past few days -- and to referring to the Illinois senator as "The One," in reference to what they view as an excessively reverential press tone. The Wall Street Journal reports "McCain used to jokingly call the media 'my base.' Now, he and his aides are becoming increasingly frustrated with what they see as a growing press infatuation with his rival, Barack Obama." The McCain campaign "publicized its disdain Tuesday through a Web video blasted to supporters and donors. 'The media is in LOVE with Obama,' the site declares in red letters with a background of pink hearts around a photo of a smiling Sen. Obama." It "asks readers to vote on the best crooning background music. The leading choice is Frankie Valli's 'Can't Take My Eyes Off of You,' which runs under a string of spliced cable-news clips." The Los Angeles Times also reports "McCain's campaign went on the offensive Tuesday with" its video, "sent to supporters to raise campaign donations in a week when McCain has been largely overshadowed by coverage of Obama's overseas trip. Charging the media with 'a bizarre fascination with Barack Obama,' the e-mail to supporters reads: 'If it wasn't so serious, it would be funny.'"
The CBS Evening News also took a look at this issue, calling the trip an "Obamathon," and was generally sympathetic towards McCain, noting the interest in the media of traveling with Obama, and adding that McCain "is making the best of it." McCain was shown saying, "I'm a big boy, and I'm enjoying every minute of the campaigning, and I'm certainly not complaining. In fact, I think it's fun to watch."
Obama Up 3 In Gallup Tracking The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 45%-42%, down from a 47%-41% lead the previous day. The poll surveyed 2,645 registered voters from July 19-21.
Race Tight In Rasmussen Tracking The Rasmussen Reports automated tracking poll showed Obama edging McCain 43%-42%. Including leaners, the race is tied at 46% apiece.
McCain Retakes Lead In Florida An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Florida voters taken July 19-21 shows McCain leading Obama 47%-45%. A similar survey taken in mid-June showed Obama leading 49%-44%.
McCain Opens Lead In Ohio A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Ohio voters taken July 21 shows McCain leading Obama 46%-40%. Including leaners, McCain's lead expands to 52%-42%. A similar survey taken a month ago showed McCain leading 44%-43%.
McCain Closes In New Hampshire An American Research Group poll of 600 likely New Hampshire voters taken July 19-21 shows Obama leading McCain 47%-45%, down from a 51%-39% lead in a similar poll taken in mid-June.
Obama Holds Narrow Lead In Colorado A Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 500 likely Colorado voters taken July 21 shows Obama leading McCain 49%-42%. However, including leaners, Obama's lead narrows to 50%-47%.
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President Bush bluntly told a fundraiser for a Republican congressional candidate last week that the cause of the current economic "hangover" was that Wall Street "got drunk" on "fancy financial instruments." The candid remarks were captured on video and found their way first to a local TV station. The Financial Times says this morning the recording "represents the first time Mr Bush has fallen victim to a 'YouTube moment.'" The New York Times reports that despite the President's "request that those present turn their cameras off, his comments were captured on videotape that made its way into the hands of Miya Shay, a reporter at the Houston television affiliate of ABC."
NBC Nightly News also reported that Bush "thought no cameras were rolling but a reporter with Houston ABC affiliate KTRK obtained this videotape now being posted on the internet." Bush was shown saying, "There's no question about it. Wall Street got drunk. That's one reason I asked you to turn off your TV cameras. It got drunk and now it's got a hangover. The question is, how long will it sober up and not try to do all these fancy financial instruments?"
The Wall Street Journal reports that in public, Bush "uses measured tones to describe the challenges facing the U.S. economy." White House spokesman Tony Fratto "said Mr. Bush's remarks, while colorful, don't break from what he has said publicly about the credit crisis and the explosion of complex instruments like credit default swaps." The AP reports Bush spoke "in an unguarded moment."
Stocks Rise Again On Declining Oil Prices The AP reports Wall Street "shook off early doldrums and closed sharply higher Tuesday after another drop in oil prices encouraged investors to set aside financial sector worries and go bargain hunting across the market." A "$3 drop in oil - which took crude's decline in recent weeks to nearly $20 a barrel - persuaded some investors to wade back into equities." The Dow "rose 135.16, or 1.18 percent, to 11,602.50," and "broader indexes also rose Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 index jumped 17.00, or 1.35 percent, to 1,277.00." The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times reported the story.
A separate AP dispatch attributed the decline in oil prices to news that Tropical Storm Dolly "grew increasingly unlikely to threaten supply, giving traders one less reason to buy as a strengthening dollar helped keep prices in check." Light, sweet crude "for August delivery fell $3.09 to settle at $127.95 a barrel in its last trading day on the New York Mercantile Exchange."
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports the dollar "rallied from close to a record low against the euro on Tuesday after Hank Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, moved to calm fears over the health of the US financial system."
Rich Earn More, Pay More Taxes The Wall Street Journal reports that in a "new sign of increasing inequality in the U.S., the richest 1% of Americans in 2006 garnered the highest share of the nation's adjusted gross income for two decades, and possibly the highest since 1929, according to Internal Revenue Service data." IRS data show "the richest 1% reported 22% of the nation's total adjusted gross income in 2006. That is up from 21.2% a year earlier, and is the highest in the 19 years that the IRS has kept strictly comparable figures." The "wealthiest Americans" paid "39.9% of all income taxes in 2006, compared with 27.6% in 1988."
Economy Said Nowhere Near Depression In his Washington Post column, Robert Samuelson says the "use of 'depression' to describe the economy is a case of rhetorical overkill that speaks volumes about today's widespread pessimism and anxiety." The US is "relearning an old lesson: The business cycle isn't dead. Prosperity's pleasures breed complacency and inspire mistakes that, in time, boomerang on financial markets, job creation and production."
Testimony began yesterday in the trial of Salim Hamdan, the former driver for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. ABC World News reported the "military judge hearing the case has thrown out some of the government's evidence against Salim Hamdan, ruling Hamdan was subjected to highly coercive treatment in Afghanistan before the US moved him to Guantanamo Bay." The AP reports that Hamdan "knew the target of the fourth hijacked plane on Sept. 11, a prosecutor said Tuesday as he sought to undercut defense arguments" that Hamdan "was a low-level employee of the terrorist leader." Hamdan "heard bin Laden say the plane was heading for 'the dome,' an apparent reference to the U.S. Capitol, said Navy Lt. Cmdr. Timothy Stone."
USA Today reports, "Prosecutors said the Yemeni not only was bin Laden's driver and bodyguard but helped the al-Qaeda leader escape after attacks on U.S. embassies in East Africa in 1998 and on New York City and the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001." The Wall Street Journal reports Special Agent Soufan "testified that he interrogated Mr. Hamdan on three occasions at Guantanamo Bay. Mr. Soufan said he focused on building rapport with Mr. Hamdan."
The Miami Herald reports that with the Capitol attack revelation, Stone "evoked a conversation -- a conspiracy theory, actually -- revealed by...Hamdan. Prosecutors put him at the heart of the conspiracy," but if his testimony is allowed, "one of the alleged senior al Qaeda captives now held in seclusion at Guantánamo would testify that Hamdan 'was not fit to plan or execute,' said defense attorney Harry Schneider."
The Washington Post reports that Hamdan "had two shoulder-fired missiles in his car when he was captured in Afghanistan in late 2001, along with a piece of paper signed by the leader of the Taliban, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier testified Tuesday." The New York Times says "the dueling presentations were suggestive of those at civilian trials. But...there were also reminders of the differences permitted by the 2006 law that established the military commission system."
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The Wall Street Journal reports that "after tense negotiations," leaders in the House and Senate "have largely hammered out a compromise deal on a mammoth housing package that would permit the government to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an emergency, overhaul supervision of the housing-finance giants and allow the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages." While the deal "is likely to remain a source of contention when the House of Representatives votes Wednesday," it "is expected to easily pass the House and will likely pass the Senate." In spite of "repeated White House veto threats, lawmakers plan to include a $4 billion program that would allow local governments to buy and rehabilitate foreclosed properties."
The Financial Times reports Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson "on Tuesday said he was 'confident' Congress would complete work on approving his plan to give the Treasury authority to increase its credit line to Fannie and Freddie and invest in their equity, if necessary." In an article on the front page of its business section, the Washington Post reports, "Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. yesterday urged Congress to quickly approve the package during a lunch meeting with Senate Republicans and in a speech earlier in the day in New York." The New York Times, Washington Times and The Hill also cover the story.
Bill Could Raise Federal Debt Ceiling The Politico reports that Democrats in Congress are considering using the housing bill to raise the federal debt ceiling to $10.615 trillion - an $800 billion increase. The Treasury Department "appeared open to the proposal Tuesday, since it would also expedite action this week on Secretary Henry Paulson's rescue plan to shore up investor support for" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
GSE Concerns Push Up Mortgage Rates In a front-page article, the New York Times reports mortgage rates "are rising because of the troubles at the loan finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, threatening to deal another blow to the faltering housing market." This "adds urgency to the government's efforts to restore confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
The Wall Street Journal reports, "Home-mortgage rates are nearing their highest levels in a year, adding to pressures on the already weak housing market." According to HSH Associates, "rates on conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by nearly 0.40 percentage point in the past week to an average of 6.71%." Jumbo loan rates currently average 7.84%.
Mortgage Banker Group's Head To Step Down The Wall Street Journal reports that Jonathan Kempner, president and chief executive of the 2,400-member Mortgage Bankers Association, "resigned Tuesday, just as the industry is defending itself from a hostile Congress and a punishing housing slump." The Washington Post reports, "In an interview, Kempner said it was his own decision to leave," although "he acknowledged that his industry has been facing tough times and that fact has made his assignment especially difficult."
The Wall Street Journal reports the Senate "on Tuesday moved forward a bill aimed to rein in speculation in the nation's energy markets. But the proposal is likely to face strong Republican opposition unless it includes provisions to expand domestic drilling." The bill would order "the Commodity Futures Trading Commission...to eliminate what lawmakers call excessive speculation in petroleum and natural gas by, among other things, limiting the amount of trades by certain market participants."
Roll Call reports, "At press time, a bipartisan deal on floor consideration of an oil markets speculation bill appeared out of reach, but the rhetorical maneuvering suggested that both parties were trying to set themselves up to avoid being blamed for the possible failure of the legislation."
Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that "a federal task force said Tuesday that it had so far found no evidence" that speculators "are systematically pushing up the cost of energy. Instead, in an interim report made public on Tuesday, the task force said that its research 'does not support the hypothesis that the activity of these groups is driving prices higher.'"
And The Hill reports Senate Democrats "on Tuesday announced modest concessions, such as expedited offshore leases, on expanded oil drilling, even as talks on an overall energy bill were teetering on the verge of collapse. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) unveiled a proposal to quicken the pace of processing new and existing applications for offshore leases."
The Hill reports Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert Byrd "postponed markups of two spending bills scheduled this week after learning Republicans intended to force more votes on lifting the offshore drilling ban."
GOP Takes Lead In Energy Debate Key Senate Democratic aides tell the US News Political Bulletin that Republicans have taken the lead in pushing their energy plan because it uses a simple message that centers on energy development. "Theirs is a simpler message and ours is too complex," said a top Democratic aide who is helping to change the party's approach. "They say drill and expand development and cut taxes and we respond with a long list of stuff about oil speculators and how drilling won't help for five to 10 years," said the aide. "With gas at $4 people now get that we have to invest in new development to cut prices down the road."
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Jay Leno: "Well, this is Barack's third day in the Middle East, and President Bush says he has no timetable for bringing him back home."
Jay Leno: "John McCain called a press conference today. Unfortunately, all the press were out of the country covering Obama."
David Letterman: "Oh, by the way, the trial for Osama bin Laden's driver" has "begun." The charges are "terrorism, conspiracy," and "making an illegal left turn."
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