Ahead of today's primaries, much of the media is portraying both the Indiana and North Carolina contests as too close to call -- though many top analysts see Indiana as a likely Sen. Hillary Clinton victory while Sen. Barack Obama is believed likely to hold his lead in North Carolina. Obama's decision to spend much of the day yesterday in North Carolina is taken as a sign that his campaign is concerned that a win there is not a certainty. The Washington Post reports Obama "split his time between" Indiana and North Carolina, "an indication that he, too, sees a tightening race in North Carolina and a close contest in Indiana." Obama has "struggled at the polls, not winning a single large state since his Wisconsin rout of Clinton on Feb. 18." The CBS Evening News reported in its lead story that "a quick trip" to North Carolina yesterday "was unavoidable" for Obama, "given that a once double-digit Obama lead has nerve-wrackingly narrowed."
Meanwhile, The Hill notes that "just as she did before the Pennsylvania primary," Clinton "is seeking to lower expectations" and "has been effective in setting the bar low. ... By setting the expectations low, Clinton's team hopes to spin a positive outcome into a greater victory." The Chicago Tribune says the two contests "appear to be the closest since those held a month ago in Texas and Ohio and are vital in Clinton's efforts to keep her presidential bid, lagging in money and elected delegates, alive."
USA Today report Clinton and Obama "dispatched some of their most powerful surrogates to get out the vote: their relatives. Former president Bill Clinton sped through eight small towns in North Carolina," while Chelsea Clinton "hit a cosmetology school with Miss Indiana USA, Brittany Mason, in tow. Michelle Obama, meanwhile, spoke to about 1,700 people at Fayetteville State University, a historically black college, and talked about the need for family-friendly policies to women near the Army's Fort Bragg."
Obama's Lead Ranges From 4 To 14 Points In Final North Carolina Polls A Southern Political Report /Insider Advantage poll of 774 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters taken May 5 shows Obama leading Clinton 47%-43%.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 802 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters taken May 2-4 shows Obama leading Clinton 50%-45%.
An American Research Group poll of 600 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters taken May 2-4 shows Obama leading Clinton 50%-42%.
A Zogby International poll of 643 likely North Carolina Democratic primary voters taken May 4-5 shows Obama leading Clinton 51%-37%.
Last Polls Conflict On Indiana Race The final polls out today in the Indiana primary paint a conflicting picture of the race they range anywhere from a 12 point Clinton lead to a 2 point Obama lead. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 675 likely Indiana Democratic primary voters taken May 2-4 shows Clinton leading Obama 54%-42%.
An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Indiana Democratic primary voters taken May 2-4 shows Clinton leading Obama 53%-45%.
An Insider Advantage poll of 502 likely Indiana Democratic primary voters taken May 5 shows Clinton leading Obama 48%-44%.
A Zogby International poll of 644 likely Indiana Democratic primary voters taken May 4-5 shows Obama leading Clinton 45%-43%.
Clinton Seen As Needed Indiana, Obama Needing North Carolina The political punditry has assessed today's contests, and concluded that Sen. Hillary Clinton must win Indiana to remain viable, while Sen. Barack Obama must win North Carolina to avoid the appearance that his campaign is coming apart. While most of the media is expecting a split decision, with Clinton winning Indiana and Obama taking North Carolina, a sweep by either candidate is seen as likely to dramatically shake up the race. For example, in a front page article in the New York Times, Adam Nagourney writes, "A double Obama victory would almost certainly mean lights out for the Clinton campaign," while "a sweep by Mrs. Clinton on Tuesday is one outcome that could, to borrow a phrase from Mr. Obama, change the world, or at least begin to."
The Washington Post's Dan Balz writes that North Carolina "holds the potential to shake up the Democratic race. ... If Clinton wins both North Carolina and Indiana, the Democrats will be in for a long and very difficult contest that could go all the way to the convention in August. As Democratic strategist Donnie Fowler put it, 'a victory in both for her guarantees a dance in Denver.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle reports that for Obama, "wins in both states would give him a needed shot of front-runner energy and take away the perception that he's off his game," while a win in Indiana is "essential" for Clinton to continue in the race.
However, some media outlets also see Obama needing to win in Indiana. The Washington Post reports that a "loss in Indiana, which neighbors Obama's home state of Illinois and where his campaign once expected to win easily, could raise anew questions" about whether he can beat McCain.
Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continued to battle over her proposed gas tax holiday yesterday, with Clinton taking to the offensive and attempting to portray Obama as out of touch with working class people for opposing her plan. Bloomberg News reports, "Never before have two presidential campaigns staked so much on 18.4 cents." Obama and Clinton "are closing out their marathon campaigning in Indiana and North Carolina tussling over Clinton's proposal to suspend the federal tax on each gallon of gasoline for the summer months, one of the few stark policy differences between" them. The AP reports Clinton "plugged her summertime gas-tax holiday proposal at every stop" in both North Carolina and Indiana yesterday "and released a new TV ad in both states that assailed Sen. Obama for his opposition to it. The ad called her 'the candidate who is going to fight for working people.'" ABC World News reported Clinton, on the trail yesterday, said Obama "wants you to pay the gas tax this summer instead of trying to get it so the oil companies pay it out of their record profits." ABC added, "Policymakers of all stripes think that proposal is a lousy one that may not even save consumers money." NBC Nightly News called the "battle" over Clinton's plan "the overriding pocketbook issue on the stump." CBS Evening News also featured the story prominently.
Clinton Promises To Fight OPEC The Washington Post reports that at an event yesterday in Indiana, Clinton "took on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as part of her pledge to deal with high gas prices. 'We're going to go right at OPEC,' she said at a firehouse in Merrillville. 'They can no longer be a cartel, a monopoly that gets together once every couple of months' and 'decide how much oil they're going to produce and what price they're going to put it at.'" The Politico reported in a blog posting that Clinton's "attacks on oil prices as artificially inflated, Enron-style, keep escalating, and" Monday "she appeared to threaten to break up the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries."
Obama Reiterates His Opposition To "Phony Scheme" ABC World News reported, "The big concern and the big political battle is over gas prices and Senator Clinton's proposal for a three-month holiday on federal gas taxes, which Obama opposes." Sen. Obama: "This is a classic example in Washington, alright? They offer a phony scheme that nobody thinks is going to work, that at best would give people 30 cents a day, but actually would simply fatten up the oil companies. ... She opposed this stuff before." Obama was shown saying, "She does not have a single prominent supporter who stood up and said this is a good idea." The New York Times' David Brooks also pans Clinton's plan today, calling it a "sham."
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Bloomberg News reports that Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 47% to 40% "among Democrats nationwide...according to the latest Ipsos poll," of 1,000 adults which was conducted by telephone April 30-May. 4. The survey asked Democrats who they would support "if a primary or caucus were held in their states today." In general election trial heats, Ipsos reports that Clinton leads Sen. John McCain 47%-42% and Obama leads McCain 46%-42%.
In a little noticed development that threatens to drive a wedge between the GOP presidential nominee and the party's conservative base, Sen. John McCain pledged to champion a temporary worker program and "address the issue of the people who have come here illegally" if he is elected. The Washington Times notes that previously, McCain had declined to say whether or not he planned to make another effort to pass the comprehensive immigration reform package that conservative opposition derailed last summer. The Times also reports that McCain announced that he will speak at the controversial Latino activist group La Raza's summer convention.
While McCain's speech remarks did not garner much notice in the national press, last night on Fox News' Special Report FNC's chief political correspondent Carl Cameron filed a report emphasizing the potential for conservative backlash. Fox News' Special Report reported that McCain "marked the popular Mexican holiday Cinco de Mayo with a direct plea to Latino voters." According to Fox, McCain unveiled a Spanish-language website and "then took a shot at his own party. ... He complained that the GOP's reputation among Latinos plummeted because conservatives cried 'amnesty' and defeated McCain's proposed guest worker and path to citizenship plans for illegal aliens." Fox added that "undaunted," McCain "says if elected he will begin finalizing border security, then immediately launch the guest worker program and path to citizenship that many in his party oppose." Fox concluded the report by noting that "many say job one for McCain would be unifying a fractured GOP uneasy with his collaboration with Democrats but now he wears that collaboration on his sleeve and promises to tackle issues like immigration and global warming with approaches that are clearly intended to attract independents more than conservatives."
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With House Democrats preparing legislation to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, anti-war lawmakers are expected to once again push for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. Moreover, the Democratic majority is also expected to precipitate a confrontation with the White House by attaching popular domestic spending provisions. The AP reports a senior House Democratic aide says the plan "would allow anti-war lawmakers to vote to force the withdrawal of most combat troops by December of next year, though the Senate probably won't go along." The Wall Street Journal says Democrats plan to link the war bill "to billions in spending on domestic initiatives, the first step in what may be an extended skirmish with President Bush." The "roughly $180 billion measure, agreed upon in a meeting of top House Democrats Monday night, would give Mr. Bush nearly all of the funds he requested for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan into next year and would allow a vote on withdrawing most troops from Iraq by December 2009, House Democratic aides said."
Meanwhile, in an example of how some Democrats have scaled back their efforts to shape Iraq policy, Roll Call reports in its "Morning Business" column that freshman Democrats "who were elected in large part to put an end to the Iraq War will announce a far more modest effort Tuesday: They want Iraq to pay for its own rebuilding." And Roll Call reports in a separate story that with "little progress against the war being made on Capitol Hill, 16 Members of Congress are rallying behind a national campaign to corral Democratic superdelegates into signing a petition to insert anti-war language into the party platform in 2008."
In a move seen as putting the Iraqi government in a difficult position, the AP reports Iran "called off further Iraq security talks with Washington until US forces stop their crackdown on Shiite militias." This "latest flare-up has put Iraq's government in a bind as it seeks to stamp out armed Shiite gangs but worries about angering Shiite heavyweight Iran, which has close ties to the core of Iraq's political leadership."
The Financial Times reports Mohammad Ali Hosseini, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, "said that continuing talks with the US over Iraqi security 'makes no sense' so long as the US military was attacking residential areas in Sadr City, a neighbourhood in Baghdad that is a stronghold of the Mahdi army, a Shia militia."
The New York Times notes Americans accusations that "Iran is supplying weapons and training to Shiite militias in Iraq," but adds "it remains uncertain whether some of the weapons found in Iraq that appear to be Iranian came directly from Iran or through third parties." And USA Today reports the US military "said Monday that many Shiite extremists whom Iraqi and U.S. troops are trying to defeat in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq are being trained by members of the militant group Hezbollah in camps in Iran."
Iran Also Training Taliban Fighters The Wall Street Journal reports US commanders in Afghanistan "believe they need an additional three brigades of American forces, between 10,000 and 12,000 troops, to combat the Taliban and to speed the training of Afghanistan's security forces." A "senior military official said Iran is training the Taliban. He also said Iran is providing weapons support to the Taliban, most notably the technology to build roadside bombs capable of punching through even the strongest US armor."
Citing Israel, Iran Says No Inspections The AP reports, "An Iranian envoy said Monday his government will not submit to extensive nuclear inspections while Israel stays outside the global treaty to curb the spread of atomic weapons." Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh told a meeting of the 190 countries that have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, "Israel, with huge nuclear weapons activities, has not concluded" an agreement "or submitted its facilities to the IAEA's safeguards."
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In his speech Monday at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel in New York, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke was seen by media observers as backing a more activist approach to government foreclosure aid than in his previous pronouncements on the issue. USA Today reports in a front page story that Bernanke "warned late Monday that the federal government should do more to stave off home foreclosures that threaten credit markets and the economy, even as a Fed survey showed the percentage of banks tightening credit for consumers and businesses reached historic highs."
The New York Times reports Bernanke "urged Congress on Monday to allow federal agencies more leeway in overseeing the ailing mortgage industry, emphasizing that the causes of the current foreclosure crisis were more difficult to address than those in the past." The Los Angeles Times reports Bernanke "endorsed the need for government intervention, saying that letting markets take their own course could 'destabilize communities, reduce the property values of nearby homes and lower municipal tax revenues.'"
In what media reports universally cast as a highly unusual move for this White House, First Lady Laura Bush yesterday held a press conference to highlight this weekend's cyclone in Burma. Estimates now put the death toll in that country at as high as 10,000. The First Lady, noted ABC World News, "has been an outspoken critic" of the Burmese government, and she urged it "to accept aid from the United States and from the entire international community."
Similarly, NBC Nightly News reported that "an unusual scene unfolded inside the White House briefing room" where "for the first time it was First Lady Laura Bush, not the President, who offered the US response to an international disaster." The CBS Evening News also noted Mrs. Bush's "unusual personal appeal." The Washington Post reports Mrs. Bush's remarks "underscore the first lady's uncommon emergence as the administration's most visible spokesperson on Burma."
The AP, meanwhile, reports Mrs. Bush also "rebuked" the Burmese junta "on other fronts" in her "rare appearance at the White House press briefing room. She faulted the junta for proceeding with a May 10 constitutional referendum that she described as a sham, and criticized government leaders for not warning citizens about the storm."
USA Today notes the First Lady also "said that on Tuesday, President Bush will sign congressional legislation awarding Suu Kyi a Congressional Gold Medal for her human rights work." The New York Times and Washington Times make brief mentions of the First Lady's comments as part of larger stories on the cyclone.
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Jay Leno: "I went to a bad Cinco de Mayo party" at Lou Dobbs' "house, and Sean Hannity was the host. Horrible party."
David Letterman: Top Ten Reasons Hillary Clinton Loves America (Editor's note: The list was read by Sen. Clinton).
"10. We have more Dakotas than every other country combined.
9. Canadian bacon: soggy and chewy; American bacon: crisp and delicious!
8. Thanks to the Internet, I can order new pantsuits 24/7 there's your pantsuit joke, Dave. Are you happy now?
7. 232 years and not one cookie shortage.
6. TiVo.
5. Did I mention the soup? Mmm, soup.
4. Did you know former President Teddy Roosevelt was an American?
3. Where else can you get a car painted for $29.95?
2. Is this the part where I say, 'Live from New York, it's Saturday night!"?
1. Apparently anyone can get a talk show."
Conan O'Brien: "Happy Cinco de Mayo. ... And, of course, the President marked this occasion earlier today. President Bush said that Cinco de Mayo is an opportunity to recognize the strong ties of family, economy and culture that bind the United States and Mexico. That was nice. Yeah. Then the President said, 'Now, let's get back to building that fence.'"
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