Sen. Hillary Clinton won three of yesterday's four Democratic nominating contests, taking Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, but losing Vermont. The media today sees it as a clear sign of a Clinton comeback, and a setback for Sen. Barack Obama. Media reports suggest Clinton capitalized on Barack Obama's missteps on NAFTA and perception of his national security inexperience. Though the delegate math continues to favor Obama, Clinton appears to have earned enough breathing space to continue her campaign to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. As the New York Times reports, Clinton's victories "shook off the vapors of impending defeat, showing that in spite of his delegate lead, she could still beat...Barack Obama in the big states." For Clinton, "the battle ahead is not so much against Mr. Obama as it is against a Democratic Party establishment that once appeared ready to coalesce behind her." For Obama, the "results on Tuesday also bring fresh questions about his electability in key swing states like Ohio that Democrats are eager to carry in the November general election."
CNN reports that with 97% reporting, Clinton topped Obama 51%-48% in the Texas primary. However, it was not clear this morning who won the Texas caucuses, which were held following the primary, and award approximately a third of the pledged delegates from the state. Obama held a narrow lead in very early reporting. In Ohio, Clinton topped Obama 54%-44%, while she won 58%-40% in Rhode Island. Obama did win yesterday in Vermont, topping Clinton 60%-38%.
The Washington Post says Clinton is "defying predictions of an imminent end to her presidential candidacy and extending the remarkable contest for the Democratic nomination to Pennsylvania's April primary and perhaps well into the summer." USA Today reports on the front page that Clinton "rejuvenated her flagging campaign and broke" Obama's "long winning streak," while the New York Times says on its front page that by "winning decisively in Ohio, Mrs. Clinton was able to deliver her party's only victory speech of the evening. And the result there allowed her to cast Tuesday as the beginning of a comeback even though the full story of the results was not yet known and she stood a good chance of gaining no ground against Mr. Obama in the hunt for delegates."
The Politico reports that Clinton, in "a raucous appearance in Columbus, Ohio, sought to make the case that even the partial results represented a comeback from the political grave." The Baltimore Sun says Clinton "salvaged her presidential candidacy", while the Los Angeles Times says Clinton "has stalled rival Barack Obama's momentum toward the Democratic presidential nomination."
Bloomberg News adds that Obama, " who won 12 of the last 15 nominating contests, focused on his lead in delegates and said his edge would hold."
The Houston Chronicle cautions that the "contest for delegates, however, remained unresolved in Texas, with Clinton apparently holding a slight lead in the state's complicated delegate selection process." The Dallas Morning News also reports Clinton's "popular vote victory gave her bragging rights, but Mr. Obama, with his strong showing in the delegate-rich areas of Dallas, Houston and Austin, could emerge as the winner in the pledged delegate race." Results were "still being collected all over the state, with Mrs. Clinton winning the rural areas and the Rio Grande Valley, while Mr. Obama rolled up impressive totals in the cities, including Dallas."
Obama Seen As Again Failing To Land Knockout Punch In his "Washington Sketch" column in the Washington Post, Dana Milbank says that at "monthly intervals -- Jan. 8 in New Hampshire, Feb. 5 in New York and Tuesday night here in Columbus -- the national media have assembled to observe Clinton's demise, only to discover that the candidate had other plans. To Barack Obama, she must resemble some sort of poltergeist."
Exit Polls Suggest Clinton Revived Base Support In Ohio, Texas The Politico reports Clinton "erased Barack Obama's recent inroads with whites Tuesday night in Ohio. And she did it more with men than women, more with the working class than any other, and more strongly on an economic appeal." Clinton "did win the majority of Ohio's white women, the defining attribute of nearly all of her victories. But the percentage shift of her white male support outpaced the shift of white female support." About "65 percent of white women backed her and about 55 percent of white men did the same, according to the exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for television networks and The Associated Press."
Despite Sen. Hillary Clinton's impressive wins yesterday, most analysts are concluding this morning that she still has a big hill to climb in gaining the nomination given her deficit in elected delegates. In an article on the website of Newsweek, Jonathan Alter writes that Clinton aides who see the Tuesday primaries as the beginning of a Clinton comeback "can't count. ... with the help of Slate's Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton." Alter continues to project Clinton wins in the remaining states with what he presents as reasonable percentages, but suggests that even with these "generous" Clinton wins, "Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people."
In a front-page story, the Washington Post reports, "By some calculations, Clinton would need to win more than 60 percent of the vote in the dozen contests remaining between now and June 7 to catch Obama in pledged delegates -- a steep challenge given that, so far, she has won that much in only one state, her onetime adopted home of Arkansas. Even in New York, where she is a sitting senator, she won 57 percent of the vote." In an analysis, the AP says Clinton's "best hope is to try to rack up big margins in the spring contests. Even her own advisers acknowledge Obama will probably win the two other states left this month _ Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi next Tuesday. If she is able to continue turning voters against Obama in the races after that, she could plausibly clinch the nomination by persuading superdelegates to back her." Similarly, in an analysis on the website of TIME, Mark Halperin writes that it "appears numerically impossible for her to overtake his lead among elected delegates."
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USA Today reports Sen. Hillary Clinton "has been telling Democrats for months that she's a fighter, and she proved it with an aggressive recovery strategy that helped her to revive her moribund campaign Tuesday." In the lead-up to Tuesday, Clinton "sharpened her focus to national security in hawkish Texas and pocketbook issues in economically ravaged Ohio. At the same time, she and her team went into combat mode against Obama, challenging his credibility, leadership and readiness to be commander in chief." In an analysis, the Chicago Tribune says that prior to yesterday's contests, Clinton's "campaign had vowed to throw the 'kitchen sink' at Obama to derail the momentum that had led to wins in 11 straight contests. She honored that vow. It paid off in Ohio" and Texas. In his New York Post column, Rich Lowry writes that Clinton "stopped her slide in Ohio and came back in Texas on the basis of 'kitchen sink' attacks on Obama, a stark ad asserting her superior preparation to be commander-in-chief and her usual lunch-bucket economic agenda. ... And what was widely panned as her 'desperation' and 'fear-mongering' of the final days worked."
Clinton Campaign Succeeds In Changing Tenor Of Media Coverage The New York Times reports that over the "last few days, the tone of the Democratic contest seems to have shifted," with Clinton's campaign "more buoyant" and Barack Obama's "more defensive." That shift "may be traceable in part to the 'Saturday Night Live' show on Feb. 23, when, back from the writers' strike, it mocked the news media for treating Mr. Obama more gently than it treated Mrs. Clinton." Clinton "amplified that view later in a debate, and her aides stoked it all week, practically browbeating reporters."
The Hill reports Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign "charged" Sen. Barack Obama's campaign "with breaking several rules in the Texas caucuses." The Clinton campaign "called an 'emergency' conference call with reporters that was interrupted by Obama's chief counsel Bob Bauer, who called in and said the Clinton campaign only criticized the caucus process when it was losing." Bauer's "presence on the call came as a surprise as he and Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, went round and round. Wolfson repeatedly asked Bauer and the Obama campaign to ensure that all votes in Texas are counted as Bauer impugned the Clinton campaign's 'attacking the caucus process.'"
The AP reports Sen. John McCain clinched the Republican presidential nomination last night culminating an "extraordinary comeback for a candidate whose White House hopes were dashed eight years ago and whose second bid was left for dead eight months ago." McCain surpassed the 1,191 delegate threshold with wins in Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island and Texas." The AP notes that when asked if he intends to resign from the Senate, McCain responded, "I have no intention of resigning from the Senate, but I will discuss it more." USA Today reports McCain began the night with 1,014 delegates, 177 short, and he gained 89 delegates in Texas, 17 in Vermont, "as well as at least 58 in Ohio and 9 in Rhode Island."
CNN reports that McCain topped Mike Huckabee 60%-31% in Ohio, with Ron Paul taking 5%. In Texas, McCain topped Huckabee by a narrower 51%-38% margin, with Paul at 5%. In Rhode Island, McCain took 65% to Huckabee's 22% with Paul at 7%. Finally, McCain won Vermont with 72%, followed by Huckabee with 14% and Paul with 7%.
However, the media does not see an easy road to the White House for McCain. The Wall Street Journal notes McCain "lags behind the Democrats in fund raising, a disadvantage that is likely to persist through the year. He has to persuade people that a man turning 72 this year is not too old to enter the White House. And he must win over a disgruntled conservative base while maintaining his appeal to independents and reaching out to bring more of them into his fold." The AP says, "Next up for the party and its new standard-bearer will be convincing a public craving change to keep a Republican in the White House in the midst of a drawn-out Iraq war and a sluggish economy. That's a daunting task by any measure." The Washington Times says McCain "now needs to bind a fractured Republican Party."
Mike Huckabee dropped out of the GOP race last night, after losing all four of yesterday's primaries. The Los Angeles Times reports that in his concession speech, Huckabee said, "I called Sen. McCain a few moments ago, and it looks pretty apparent tonight that he will, in fact, achieve the needed delegates to become the Republican party's nominee. ... I extended to him...my commitment to do everything possible to unite our party...so we can be the best nation we can be." The New York Times (adds that Huckabee said he called McCain "to concede and offer his support." Huckabee said, "We'll be working on everything we can to help Senator McCain." The Times notes that last night McCain "praised Mr. Huckabee as 'a great and fine and decent American.'"
At 9:43 last night ABC News.com's Political Radar blog reported that Sen. John McCain "will visit the White House on Wednesday. There, according to sources close to the McCain, the Republican Senator will receive the endorsement of President George W. Bush." According to ABC, Bush and McCain "will have lunch together and then make a joint statement at 1pm ET." The meeting is mentioned on USA Today's front page report this morning. The New York Times also reports that an unnamed "Republican official" confirmed the story, "in a sign that his party is now officially rallying around" McCain. According to the Washington Times, McCain "must figure out how to deploy the president on the campaign trail. Mr. Bush retains popularity among many Republicans, but his low ratings overall could be a drag on Mr. McCain."
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According to the Wall Street Journal, "The perception that the US troop surge in Iraq has succeeded is changing some public views of the war, potentially blunting Democrats' political edge on the issue." A report from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press concludes that while the US public still believes the invasion of Iraq was "a mistake," in "a notable shift," the public's perceptions of the continuing war effort "have become significantly more positive over the past several months." That shift "appears pronounced among independent voters, and independents who see progress in Iraq are much more likely to support Republican John McCain, at least so far." The Pew report "says that about half the public (48%) now says the Iraq war effort is going either very well or fairly well. That compares to a more than 2-1 majority who said it was going badly a year ago. Nearly half (47%) say the US should keep its troops in Iraq until the situation there has stabilized -- roughly the same as those (49%) who favor bringing troops home as soon as possible."
The Hill reports that Congressional Democrats "searching for a message that will resonate on the Iraq war are preparing an argument that getting troops out of the conflict is the only way to rebuild a spent military." While it is "a less ambitious argument than the 'Out-of-Iraq now' proposals put forward last year," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "and other top Democrats believe it will allow the party to criticize the war without being seen as criticizing those fighting it."
The Hill says the Congressional Progressive Caucus "is using its alternative budget to build support for a second stimulus package that includes many of the items that were cut following negotiations with Republicans from the stimulus package signed into law last month." The members of the caucus propose "more spending on public works, food stamps, unemployment insurance and Medicaid assistance to states."
Senate Dems Release Budget Plan The Washington Post, meanwhile, reports that Senate Democrats unveiled a budget plan that includes billions of additional dollars for "education, energy and transportation, while providing $35 billion for a second round of government spending aimed at stimulating a weak economy." However, it "would omit several costly items, including tens of billions of dollars to pay for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan." Still, this is similar to "the budget proposed last month by the White House," in that it "includes just $70 billion for the fighting in 2009 and nothing thereafter." Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad "said the blueprint would erase the deficit within four years, producing a $160 billion surplus in 2013." However, that figure assumes that "all of President Bush's first-term tax cuts would expire on schedule in 2010."
Several news reports this morning suggest that in a speech yesterday to an audience of bankers, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke advocated a course of action to stem the growing mortgage crisis that goes well beyond the proposals backed by the Administration. The Wall Street Journal says Bernanke's speech "suggests Mr. Bernanke is willing to advocate more aggressive measures to address the deepening housing crisis than the Bush administration has endorsed."
The AP reports Bernanke "called...for additional relief and urged lenders to help distressed owners by lowering the amount of their loans." Bernanke said, "This situation calls for a vigorous response," and "even with some relief efforts under way by industry and government, foreclosures and late payments on home mortgages are likely to rise 'for a while longer.'" The Financial Times notes the Fed chairman "called on banks to forgive chunks of mortgage loans issued to troubled borrowers." He said, "Efforts by both government and private sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping but more can, and should, be done." AFP says Bernanke claimed additional intervention "would not only benefit stressed borrowers and their communities, but also the broader economy."
According to the Wall Street Journal, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank "called the speech an endorsement of his own proposal." The New York Times, on its front page, also says "Democratic lawmakers pounced on Mr. Bernanke's comments...to bolster their arguments for much costlier rescue plans." Frank, who "praised the Fed chairman's 'willingness to work with us,' proposed legislation last week to allow the F.H.A. to insure up to $20 billion in troubled mortgages if the lenders first agree to forgive a big part of the original loan amounts."
Another New York Times article says that though Bernanke "did not explicitly endorse a new government rescue effort," he "stepped up public pressure on the industry to take more drastic measures to keep people from walking away from homes when their mortgages exceed the value of their property." Bernanke "stopped well short of calling for a government-mandated rescue operation," but his remarks "were at odds with the position staked out in recent days by" Treasury Secretary Paulson.
USA Today quotes Paulson as saying, "Financial institutions have the incentive to work something out. ... In some instances, they may come to the conclusion that it is less costly to write down principal than to go through a foreclosure." The Washington Post adds that the Bush administration "has tried to use persuasion rather than legal force to get lenders to avoid foreclosures. But unlike Bernanke, it has not made a case for how the industry should do it." Jennifer Zuccarelli, a Treasury Department spokeswoman, said yesterday, "Treasury is not going to dictate how those renegotiations should be accomplished ... If lenders find that in some cases a principal write-down is less costly than foreclosure, then that is an option they have the incentive to consider."
Fed Official Faults Lax Regulations The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn "said the central bank failed to fully appreciate risks that financial institutions were taking before the recent credit problems, and it is reviewing its regulations. During a sometimes-contentious Senate hearing...Kohn said the central bank is likely to become 'more forceful' with the financial institutions it supervises." According to the Journal, Kohn "didn't explain what new actions the Fed might take, but he did warn banks to rely less on the assessments of credit-rating agencies. ... Kohn's comments mark one of the few times that a top Fed official has acknowledged shortcomings in regulation as a cause of the mess. 'I don't know that we fully appreciated all the risks out there,' he told the Senate Banking Committee."
Paulson Discusses The Dollar, Trade USA Today runs Treasury Secretary Paulson's response to reader questions about the economy. Asked about the "weakening dollar," Secretary Paulson said, "A strong dollar is in our nation's interest. ... It's a diverse economy with strong, long-term economic fundamentals, and I believe we are going to continue to grow this year and that the long-term fundamentals are going to be reflected in the value of our currency." Asked about the negative impact of trade on states such as Michigan, Paulson said, "I do understand what you are going through, and I do understand particularly in the Detroit area that the economy is under real strain. But all of the evidence indicates to me that trade benefits our country and benefits it greatly."
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Craig Ferguson: "It looks like John McCain clinched the nomination earlier this evening. He was very excited when they woke him up to tell him."
Jimmy Kimmel: "Hillary is not going to quit...even if she loses tonight. She told her supporters tonight, "If we pull out now, the guy I tried to make look like a terrorist wins.'"
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