Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton square off in four contests today Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. The two campaigns are focused on the big prizes of Texas and Ohio, where the media sees Obama having a chance at knocking out Clinton, or conversely, Clinton having a chance to rally her lagging campaign. For example, McClatchy says the Democratic campaign "hits a turning point Tuesday, when voters in Ohio and Texas either will put Hillary Clinton back into the race after a dismal month or drive her out." Although some pundits "already have written off Clinton, convincing wins in the two big states would give the New York senator a strong argument to keep campaigning after losing 11 straight contests, and could raise questions for the first time about rival Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's future." In a story headlined "Texas and Ohio: the end of the campaign trail?" the Los Angeles Times reports, "Many political observers -- including Clinton's husband, the former president -- have said she needs strong victories in delegate-rich Texas and Ohio to remain a serious challenger for the Democratic presidential nomination." But "in a campaign season highlighted by its unpredictability, other political analysts say that if neither Clinton nor Obama scores a pair of solid wins in Texas and Ohio, the battle might continue on to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary -- or even beyond." The New York Daily News reports that if Clinton wins both big contests, she's "back from the political boneyard. If she loses both, she's finished. And if it's a split decision, anything is possible. That's the consensus of Clinton and Barack Obama campaign officials, party strategists and election experts queried by the Daily News Monday."
USA Today reports Clinton "spent her last day before key primary contests in Ohio and Texas raising questions about rival Barack Obama's fitness to lead on national security while the Illinois senator tried to tamp down expectations for a knockout win today." The New York Times reports Clinton's campaign "released a sharp television commercial attacking Mr. Obama for being AWOL from his chairmanship of a Senate oversight committee on the forces fighting in Afghanistan - 'he was too busy running for president to hold even one hearing,' the ad said - while Mr. Obama's campaign counterpunched that Mrs. Clinton had herself missed important hearings on Afghanistan before the Senate Armed Services Committee last month."
Obama Camp Argues Delegate Math Makes Clinton Nomination Unlikely The CBS Evening News reported, "Despite Clinton victories in states including California, New York, or New Jersey, the Obama campaign refers to what it calls the cold hard reality of the delegate math that makes a Clinton comeback increasingly difficult."
Four Polls Show Tight Race In Texas Four polls out in the last 24 hours show an extraordinarily tight race in the Texas Democratic primary. Overall, Clinton holds a narrow lead in three, while Obama has a narrow edge in one. A Zogby International poll of 704 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken March 1-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 47%-44%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken March 2-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 50%-47%. A Belo/WFAA-TV poll of 1200 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken February 29-March 2 shows Clinton leading Obama 46%-45%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 840 likely Texas Democratic primary voters taken March 1-2 shows Obama leading Clinton 48%-47%.
Clinton Up Big In Two Of Three Ohio Polls Clinton holds a double-digit lead over Sen. Barack Obama in Ohio in two of three new polls released in the current news cycle. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters taken March 2-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 56%-42%. A SurveyUSA automated poll of 873 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters taken March 1-2 shows Clinton leading Obama 54%-44%. In contrast to the other two, a Zogby International poll of 712 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters taken March 1-3 shows Clinton and Obama tied at 44% apiece.
The media may see this contest ending today if Sen. Hillary Clinton does not score a pair of big wins, but the candidate herself is signaling that the race will go on. ABC World News reported, "Don't tell Hillary Clinton that this is her last stand. While some of her advisers are making contingency plans, the candidate today said she's just getting warmed up and feeling really good about her chances tomorrow." The Hill reports Clinton "began laying the groundwork to battle on past the Texas and Ohio presidential contests Tuesday, even as supporters of her rival for the Democratic nomination said she should end her candidacy if she loses either state." Clinton was "reported on Monday morning as saying she's 'just getting warmed up,' and campaign officials have repeatedly spoken of Pennsylvania's primary on April 22 as the next step." The Washington Post reports in a front page story that Clinton advisers "claimed fresh signs of momentum and continued to attempt to raise doubts about Obama on Monday, questioning his trade policies and ties to a Chicago developer."
The Wall Street Journal reports on the front page that Clinton "aides have started to imply that even just one big win today would allow her to claim she had broken Sen. Obama's momentum, justifying a continuing competition." But if the "outcomes are as close as polls suggest, Sen. Clinton won't be able to cut into Sen. Obama's lead in delegates to the Democrats' August nominating convention. The more likely net result from the four states is that his edge will grow. The Illinois senator currently is ahead with 1,386 delegates to 1,276 for Sen. Clinton, as calculated by the Associated Press."
Upcoming Primary Calendar Seen As Favorable To Obama The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, "After today, the primary season will be down to contests in 10 states, plus Guam and Puerto Rico. Clinton's short-term prospects do not appear promising. Democrats caucus in Wyoming on Saturday, but Obama has shown strength in Western caucuses. Mississippi holds its primary a week from today, but Obama also has been hard to beat in the South."
Poll: Most Say Win In OH Or TX Sufficient For Clinton To Continue The Washington Post reports a new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows "two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for" Clinton to continue her campaign. But while only "29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states," that "number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both." ABC News reports on its website that should Clinton fail to win the Democratic nomination, "many Democrats have a runner-up prize in mind. Asked whom they'd like Obama to pick for vice president, should he win the nomination, 36 percent name Clinton, a broad level of agreement on an open-ended question."
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The last 24 hours have seen a sharp change in the media's coverage of Sen. Barack Obama as a pair of high-profile negative stories today are generating heavy, negative press. The first relates to questions about whether a top staffer for his campaign assured the Canadian government that the candidate's opposition to NAFTA was simply a ploy to win votes, as alleged in a memo by a Canadian official who attended the meeting. The AP reports that yesterday Obama "said that his campaign never gave Canada back-channel assurances that his harsh words about the North American Free Trade Agreement were for political show -- despite the disclosure of a Canadian memo indicating otherwise." Obama adviser Austan Goolsbee "said his comments to those officials were misinterpreted by the [memo's] author, Joseph DeMora, who works for the Canadian consulate in Chicago and attended the meeting."
However, Obama's denials have done little to quell questions about the affair. The Dallas Morning News says Obama "faced a barrage Monday about contacts between his top economic adviser and Canadian officials edgy over his threat to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement - specifically, about contradictions between initial denials that such a meeting ever took place, issued by Mr. Obama himself and by aides, and evidence that has since emerged." The New York Times says the memo "exposed Mr. Obama to accusations of hypocrisy on a touchstone issue." The Times says the memo "also raises questions about the transparency and the ability of the campaign to address problems before they grow."
Sen. Hillary Clinton was quick to weigh in the on the issue. The Los Angeles Times quotes Clinton as saying Obama is trying to have it both ways on NAFTA and "I think it raises serious questions about what you expect [voters] to believe about your position." According to the Wall Street Journal, the Clinton campaign "has named the Goolsbee story 'Nafta-gate,'" while the Obama campaign "called the issue a 'smokescreen' created" by the Clinton campaign.
A second issue dogging the Obama campaign this morning is the trial of Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a Chicago businessman with close ties to Obama, who is facing public corruption charges. ABC World News, which devoted a pair of lengthy segments to the Rezko affair, says the trial "could cast a shadow on the Obama campaign." According to ABC, "For all of his state of disdain for fat cats and special interests, Senator Obama has had a long and close relationship with Rezko. ... Obama is not a target of the Rezko investigation but since the indictment his campaign has donated into charities some $150,000 in contributions connected to Rezko." But "among the questions still unanswered, just how much money did Rezko raise for Obama at fundraisers at his suburban mansion and elsewhere over the years. Why of all people, when Obama sought to buy a new home, did he seek Rezko's help in the deal? The seller insisted on selling the adjoining vacant lot, at the same time, but Obama couldn't afford the lot. So Rezko's wife bought the lot and then later sold a strip of it back to Obama." ABC also reported that prosecutors "allege that in at least two cases, Rezko did secretly funnel money to Obama's campaign as part of his kickback schemes."
The AP says, "Questions about" his relationship with Rezko "dogged Obama as he wound up campaigning on the eve of crucial primary votes in Texas and Ohio. ... Pressed, Obama said, 'Tony Rezko was a friend and supporter of mine for many years. These charges are completely unrelated to me, and nobody disputes that.' 'There's no dispute that he raised money for us, and there's no dispute that we've tried to get rid of it,' he added." Long Island Newsday reports that Obama "prompted angry cries from reporters when he insisted he had shared all 'pertinent' information on his links with Rezko and complained that media requests 'can go on forever.' ... Reporters retorted that he has repeatedly failed to answer such questions as how many fundraisers Rezko held for him and who attended."
Press Said To Have Become More Aggressive In Covering Obama The change in tenor of the coverage of Obama has not gone unnoticed by media observers. The Washington Post's Dana Milbank writes, "It took many months and the mockery of 'Saturday Night Live' to make it happen, but the lumbering beast that is the press corps finally roused itself from its slumber Monday and greeted Barack Obama with a menacing growl." According to Milbank, "To a large extent Hillary Clinton is setting the terms of the debate in the final days before Tuesday's crucial primaries. If Clinton doesn't win both states, even her closest advisers have said she'll face pressure to pull out of the race -- and yet, for the first time in months, she seems to have put Obama on the defensive." Similarly, in a blog posting on the website of U.S. News & World Report, Bonnie Erbe writes that while much of the media has focuses in recent days on writing a requiem for the Clinton campaign, "What's less well examined is the fact Obama's honeymoon with the media is about over."
While the vast majority of the media's focus in the current news cycle is on the Democratic race, Sen. John McCain could hit a major milestone in today's contests. NBC Nightly News reported McCain "could clinch the nomination" after today's primary contests in Texas and Ohio, where "there are more than enough delegates up for grabs for him to go over the top." However, the Washington Post says Mike Huckabee "barnstormed across Texas refusing to concede the race is all but over." McCain has 1,014 delegates to the Republican National Convention. He needs 1,191 to secure the nomination. The primaries in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont on Tuesday will award 256 delegates. Campaign manager Rick Davis "predicted: 'With wins in these states, John McCain will go 'over the top' and secure enough delegates to win the Republican nomination for President of the United States.'"
Six GOP Governors Endorse McCain Sen. John McCain's efforts to unify the Republican Party around his candidacy continued yesterday. The Hill reports six Republican governors announced their endorsement of McCain. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue announced their endorsement in Washington, "where they also said fellow GOP Govs. John Hoeven (N.D.), Bobby Jindal (La.), Linda Lingle (Hawaii) and Bob Riley (Ala.) would support McCain."
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Another day, another batch of negative data about the economy. The Financial Times reports "the US manufacturing sector contracted last month, increasing the risk that the economy could fall into recession," even if "the market was largely relieved that the manufacturers avoided a worse fate." The Institute for Supply Management February manufacturing report "fell to 48.3 from 50.7 in January, slightly better than a consensus forecast of 48. A reading of 50 marks the inflection point between growth and contraction." The Wall Street Journal says "the components of the ISM survey point to a weakening economy. New orders and employment continued to decline, while prices rose for the 14th month in a row. Growth in exports -- which have been keeping American manufacturers afloat as the economy slows -- continued, though at a slower rate."
Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said the nation's construction spending also fell in January -- by the biggest margin in 14 years. The Los Angeles Times says the construction report confirms "for many that the economy will get worse before it gets better. ... Until January, spending on nonresidential construction had been strong enough to compensate for a rapid decline in home building, keeping the construction sector roughly flat for the last year." However, "a decline in the availability of commercial loans combined with slowing demand throughout the economy has widened the hit to the construction industry, economists said."
NBC Nightly News (3/3, story 3, 2:30, Quick, 9.87M), meanwhile, reported, "CNBC's home economy survey out today says many Americans are feeling unsure of their economic future. Eighty-three percent of Americans rate the economy as only fair or poor. An eleven-point increase since December."
The Financial Times also reports Warren Buffett "told CNBC that while the US might not have met the formal tests of recession, 'most people's situation certainly their net worth has been heading south for a while now.'" The US, he added, "is in recession by 'any common sense definition' of the word." Meanwhile, "Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, told the Financial Times that 'the rate of growth in economic activity is effectively zero.'" Greenspan "said he was still not prepared to call a recession, although he said 'the probability that we will experience some negative growth is better than 50/50.'"
Oil Prices: Another Dangerous Development The AP reports "the price of oil gushed to a record high Monday, spreading dangerously to factories, groceries, gas stations and every citizen's pocketbook. ... The galloping energy prices are doubly painful as the nation teeters on the edge of recession: High energy costs push companies to charge shoppers higher prices, then those consumers and businesses cut back in turn, dumping more cold water on the economy." The AP adds, "Oil prices marched past $103 a barrel on Monday, the latest in a recent string of record-high oil prices, before settling at $102.45."
ABC World News reported last night that the United Nations Security Council "voted to slap a third round of sanctions on Iran for refusing to halt its nuclear program. The vote was 14-0, with one abstention," Indonesia. The resolution "bans some trade with Iran and authorizes inspections of cargo to and from that nation." The AP says diplomats believe the vote "sent a strong message to the Tehran government that there is global concern that Iran is trying to produce nuclear weapons." The Financial Times, however, reports that "western diplomats acknowledged that the package was weaker than they wanted but had been watered down to gain maximum support in the council." The Washington Post focuses on the importance of the new sanctions to the Bush administration, saying the move came after "a year of difficult diplomacy that may represent the Bush administration's final bid to mobilize international action against Tehran over its controversial nuclear program."
Responding to the UN vote, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad writes in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal that he wants "the Iranian people and others around the world to know that the United States recognizes Iran's right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes." However, he said that Iran "should do what other nations have done to eliminate any doubts that their nuclear program is peaceful." In addition, the Iranian government "has been a destabilizing force in the broader Middle East and beyond." The US "remains committed to a diplomatic solution. If Iran shares this commitment, it will suspend its enrichment and reprocessing activities and let diplomacy succeed."
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NBC Nightly News reported in last night's broadcast, "American forces have bombed a target in Somalia. Two Tomahawk missiles fired from a US submarine blasted apart a home that, American defense officials claim, was the residence of a known al Qaeda terrorist. Police say at least eight people were seriously injured on the ground, including four children in the attack." The Chicago Tribune says the strike "was confirmed by US officials, who said only that the target was a 'known al-Qaida terrorist.'" Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said in Washington, "As we have repeatedly said, we will continue to pursue terrorist activities and their operations wherever we may find them."
The Chicago Tribune reports "Chicago federal Judge Mark Filip was unanimously approved by the Senate Monday as the Justice Department's second-ranking official, marking the end of a small-scale odyssey that saw Filip's nomination tumble into limbo because of continuing tension between Congress and Atty. Gen. Michael Mukasey." Filip "is surrendering a lifetime appointment as a US district court judge to take the job at the Justice Department, which is likely to last less than a year." The Hill recounts that "Democratic Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois had briefly placed a hold over the confirmation last month as part of an effort to force more disclosure and investigations of the Bush administration's interrogation policies."
The Washington Post reports this morning that "House and Senate Democratic leaders are headed into talks today that they say could lead to a breakthrough on legislation to revamp domestic surveillance powers and grant phone companies some form of immunity for their role in the administration's warrantless wiretapping program after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks." The House caucus' "liberal camp" is pushing to do nothing and the moderate wing is supporting a provision in Senate-passed legislation granting immunity for the telecommunications industry." To solve the impasse, "some aides on Capitol Hill were discussing the potential for the House passing the Senate version but breaking it into two separate votes: one on the portion of the bill that deals with revising FISA provisions and a second on the immunity measure." That move "would allow many Democrats to vote against immunity but still make its approval all but certain since almost every Republican and some centrist Democrats would vote in favor."
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Craig Ferguson: "Rush Limbaugh is urging Republicans to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Texas primary tomorrow. ... Political experts say it could only mean...that Rush is back on the drugs."
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