Democrats are digging in for a prolonged nomination battle after Super Tuesday left their two leading candidates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, in a virtual tie in the race for delegates. ABC World News reported, "Super Tuesday was designed to produce party nominees; it did no such thing. Look at the Democratic total vote from last night. Barack Obama came within 45,000 votes of Hillary Clinton. 45,000 out of fifteen million cast. Obama won more states than Clinton last night. But they just about split the number of delegates at stake."
While all sources acknowledge that the race for delegates, which will ultimately determine the nominee, remains tight, there is a considerable variation in the totals being reported, mainly because of complicated rules for apportioning them and the fluid nature of superdelegates, who are free to support any candidate they choose. On NBC Nightly News, Tim Russert said the Democratic race is "essentially a dead even tie." When all delegates are counted, "That gets you to 1,148 [for Clinton] to 1,072 [for Obama], 76 delegate difference." The Chicago Tribune reports that overall, Clinton "has 1,024 delegates, to 933 for Obama with 2,025 delegates required to claim the nomination in Denver at this summer's convention." USA Today reports in the "all-important race for delegates to win the Democratic nomination, Hillary Rodham Clinton won 641 this week and Barack Obama won 633, CBS reported Wednesday morning. No, wait: NBC declared that Obama won the lion's share of delegates in Super Tuesday balloting, 838 to Clinton's 834." By the "end of the day, CNN put Clinton's overall total at 1,113 delegates to Obama's 963. Meanwhile, the Associated Press count had Clinton at 1,045 and Obama at 960. AP, which USA TODAY uses as the official count, awarded Clinton 784 delegates in Tuesday's voting and Obama 764."
Close Delegate Count Could Throw Race To Superdelegates The Wall Street Journal reports a "nightmare" scenario for the Democrats is that the "party's bigwigs, rather than its voters, may end up choosing the presidential nominee." If neither Obama nor Clinton "manages to pull decisively ahead in the next few weeks, the nomination could depend on the convention votes of 796 party leaders, or superdelegates, who are free to ignore the preferences of Democratic voters." Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia said, "To the public, that looks like a throwback to the old, corrupt system of smoke-filled rooms."
Dean Begins Working To Avoid Brokered Convention The New York Times reports the "narrow margin in delegates, and the growing likelihood that it will remain close, prompted concern on Wednesday from the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, who said Tuesday night that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton should avoid taking the nominating fight all the way to the party convention in August." On the NY1 cable news channel, Dean said, "I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April, but if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention; that would not be good news for either party."
McClatchy reports Hillary Clinton "looked forward Wednesday to distant battles in big states and Barack Obama eyed contests in the South and mid-Atlantic, as the two Democrats began what's likely to be a prolonged struggle to round up delegates and votes." Louisiana and Nebraska, which hold their contests on Saturday, have demographics that "probably favor" Obama - "a large black electorate in Louisiana and rural blocs in Nebraska - judging by Tuesday's results. He also seems well positioned for next Tuesday's primaries in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, all of which have large black populations." Similarly, ABC World News reported, "the calendar works much better, especially in February," for Obama. Clinton's "best chance in the next week are the Maine caucuses, next Sunday. Wisconsin will be a battleground at the end of the month."
The type of nominating contests in the near future also seems favorable to Obama. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, "Three of the four states that will choose delegates next weekend - Washington, Nebraska and Maine - are caucuses, and" Obama "thus far has won seven of eight caucus states."
Sign up here to get the US News Political Bulletin emailed to you each morning at 8 a.m.
The Washington Post reports in a front-page story that Hillary Clinton "announced yesterday that she had lent her campaign $5 million, a remarkable twist for a candidate who raised more than $100 million last year." In addition, ABC World News reported, "This month, members of Clinton's senior staff have volunteered to go without pay. One aide calling it a show of solidarity. Late this afternoon, Clinton acknowledged she loaned the money to her campaign out of necessity. In January, the campaign had raised just $13 million, compared to Barack Obama's $32 million." Fox's Special Report with Brit Hume reported, "It was a stunning admission that a campaign with universal name recognition, massive institutional party support, a war chest of more than $100 million and a former president as chief surrogate would have to loan itself money just to tread water, suggests not only has Clinton lost the status of inevitability but that she now faces potentially dire financial limitations not envisioned only weeks ago."
Meanwhile, Obama appears set for another banner fundraising month. The Politico reports Obama's campaign "is on track to raise another $30 million in February, sources close to the Illinois senator say." Insiders in "both campaigns say the growing financial disparity virtually ensures that Obama will be able to significantly outspend Clinton in the critical primaries to come." Even before "all the Super Tuesday votes were counted, Obama began airing advertisements in Nebraska, Virginia, the District of Columbia, Maryland and Maine - the next round of primary and caucus states - before Clinton did. His campaign has raised $2.2 million in less than 24 hours, sources say."
Coverage of the Republican presidential race suggests that while Sen. John McCain is emerging as the all-but-certain GOP presidential nominee, he still faces a considerable problem among the party's conservative base. As on the Democratic side, there is considerable disparity in the total delegate count. McClatchy says that with 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination, McCain now has 613, to Mitt Romney's 269 and Mike Huckabee's 190. McCain needs to win "roughly 45 percent of the delegates that are still up for grabs -- not even half -- to secure the nomination." Romney would need to "capture 73 percent, and Huckabee 79 percent, to win." The New York Times estimates McCain "moved far ahead in the total number of nominating delegates, with 689 compared with 156 for Mike Huckabee and 133 for Mr. Romney."
McCain is now moving to secure the GOP's conservative base. ABC World News reports that on Super Tuesday, McCain "lost conservative voters to Mitt Romney by seven points -- even conservatives in Arizona, his home state." NBC Nightly News said McCain "took command of the GOP race, padding his delegate lead and urging his conservative critics including those on talk radio to unite behind him." McCain: "I do hope that at some point we would just calm down a little bit and see if there is areas that we can agree on for the good of the party and for the good of the country." The AP says McCain "told his conservative critics Wednesday to dial back their animosity." He was "talking about well-known talk radio figures and commentators, such as Rush Limbaugh, some of whom are talking about boycotting McCain's candidacy if he captures the nomination."
The Financial Times reports that McCain will have a chance to appeal directly to conservative activists today when he will appear "at the annual conference of the Conservative Political Action Committee -- an event he has snubbed in the past." He is "expected to trumpet his conservative credentials on issues ranging from abortion to gun control while also stressing the importance of appealing to independents and 'enlightened Democrats.'" The Washington Times says the CPAC event "is taking on the significance of a State of the Union address" for McCain, as well as Huckabee and Romney, who are also "seeking to corral the backing of the conservatives."
The AP reports this morning that John McCain "skipped" a "difficult" vote yesterday "on whether to make 20 million seniors and 250,000 disabled veterans eligible for rebate checks as part of a proposed economic stimulus package." The AP says "whichever way McCain may have voted, it would have been a difficult choice given his status as the Republican presidential front-runner. Senate Democrats cleverly bundled the rebates for seniors and veterans, key voting blocs, with expanded unemployment benefits and home heating subsidies for the jobless and poor."
Though John McCain enjoys a large lead in both the delegate count and national polls in the Republican presidential race, his two rivals are pressing on. Mike Huckabee, coming off a strong Super Tuesday performance, and Mitt Romney, who has delegates, cash, and conservative backing, both are hoping McCain's continued weakness among conservatives will lead to a prolonged race. The Wall Street Journal says both Huckabee and Romney "met yesterday with their top advisers to plot the next steps," and "neither one appeared ready to exit the race. ... Republican rules on awarding delegates offer some hope" to them, since "many contests are winner-take-all, giving someone who is behind a chance to catch up in the delegate race with a few big wins."
The AP reports Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom "said Wednesday that Huckabee has a strong chance of performing well in coming contests in Virginia and Mississippi." Fehrnstrom said Romney "was targeting Ohio and Texas, two big-ticket states voting March 4." However, the New York Times says calculations by Romney's "own advisers made clear even before the final tallies from Tuesday's contests that Mr. Romney faces a steep climb to win enough delegates in the primary process." A "brokered convention...may be Mr. Romney's only remaining path to the nomination."
The New York Times reports Huckabee, for his part, has proclaimed himself "the candidate of the Republicans' true base, the South. That may not be a formula for winning his party's nomination, but it does offer a reason to stay in the race, which before this week appeared lacking. The newness of Mr. Huckabee's changed status -- no longer quite the also-ran -- appeared to have caught his shoestring campaign nearly by surprise." The Washington Post says Huckabee, "after a dispiriting loss nearly three weeks ago in South Carolina," made the "risky decision to sidestep the pivotal Florida primary and turn his attention to a handful of Super Tuesday contests. ... The maneuver worked."
Sign up here to get the US News Political Bulletin emailed to you each morning at 8 a.m.
Top
USA Today reports Senate Republicans yesterday "blocked a move by Democrats...to add more than $40 billion in checks for the elderly, disabled veterans and the unemployed to a bill aimed at stimulating the economy." The final tally was 58-41, "short of the 60 required to break a GOP filibuster and bring the Senate version of the stimulus bill closer to a final vote." The Wall Street Journal reports "the effort to provide rebate checks to millions of people and tax breaks to businesses" is now in "limbo." While "senators still hope to send an economic-stimulus bill to President Bush by midmonth," last night's vote "increases the chances the Senate will have to move closer to a House-passed package to meet that goal."
Reporting on the Senate debate, the New York Times reports the bill "was opposed by Republican leaders who said the Democrats added too many costly provisions, including an extension of unemployment benefits, tax credits for the coal industry and increased subsidies for home energy costs." Sen. John McCain "returned to Washington fresh off his string of victories in Tuesday's voting, but he did not appear in the Senate chamber and did not vote."
The Washington Post, under the headline "Senate's Stimulus Measure Blocked," reports, "Automakers Ford and General Motors, home builders, Realtors and mortgage bankers joined the AARP to press Republicans to embrace the Senate measure." Democratic Leader Harry Reid "tried to ratchet up the pressure on senators, telling Republicans that they would not be given the opportunity to have separate votes on whether to add payments for seniors and disabled veterans. The Washington Times also notes "the various measures in the Senate bill would have boosted the two-year price tag for the House-passed plan from $161 billion to $205 billion." Republicans, says the Times, "objected to the slew of add-ons." The Los Angeles Times, Financial Times and The Hill also report on the Senate vote.
Roll Call reports, "At press time, it was not clear if Reid would attempt to strike a deal with Republicans or the White House on how to provide tax rebate checks to low-income senior citizens and disabled veterans or simply hope political pressures would force one more Republican to support the package." But "Democratic aides indicated that Reid could take a day or two to let those pressures mount."
In fact, the Washington Post reports that "in the face of rising pressure, Republican leaders made a significant concession. Whereas they once demanded that the Senate pass the House bill and immediately send it to the president, they now favor the extension of benefits to seniors and veterans and the controls on claims by illegal immigrants."
Economists Puts Recession Odds At 49% The Wall Street Journal reports, "Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey gave Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke the lowest grade of his two-year tenure -- 75 out of 100 points -- and said it was increasingly likely the US economy will tumble into a recession." The Journal adds, "On average, the survey's 52 respondents put the odds of a recession at 49%, up from 40% in the January survey and 23% in June."
A day after CIA Director Michael Hayden acknowledged publicly for the first time that the controversial interrogation technique known as waterboarding was used by the US, the AP reports the White House on Wednesday "defended the use of the interrogation technique," saying "it is legal -- not torture as critics argue -- and has saved American lives." White House spokesman Tony Fratto said President Bush "could authorize waterboarding for future terrorism suspects if certain criteria are met."
Calling Hayden's disclosure Tuesday a "somewhat surprising change of direction," Fox Special Report said the issue "dominated the White House briefing" yesterday, during which, the Washington Post reports, Fratto "said the CIA could use waterboarding with Bush's approval, which would 'depend on the circumstances,' including whether 'an attack might be imminent.'"
The Washington Times notes that "before this week, Mr. Bush and his administration had refused to discuss any interrogation techniques used by US officials on suspected terrorists, but insisted the US government does not use torture." On its front page, the Los Angeles Times says the "surprise assertion from the Bush administration" that the technique could be used in the future "reopened a debate that many in Washington had considered closed."
The Wall Street Journal reports a "half-dozen government and independent agencies could grind to a halt because the process of filling vacancies has been caught in political head winds. Now, President Bush plans to use the issue to score points against Senate Democrats." Bush "plans to gather with many of the nominees this morning before television cameras to decry tactics used by Senate Democrats to stall the nominations."
Meanwhile, Roll Call reports "Senate Democrats lashed out Wednesday over...Bush's handling of dozens of judicial and executive branch nominees, who they say are being held hostage by the White House in exchange for allowing Senate confirmation of a single controversial nominee, Steven Bradbury, who Bush has nominated to be assistant attorney general for the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel."
The Wall Street Journal (2/7, A18, 2.06M) editorializes, "Is it too much to ask the Senate to do its job of advice and consent, and allow up-or-down votes on the more than 180 vacancies in the executive branch that remain in a state of suspended nomination? Apparently so." Democrats "might think about the precedent they are setting for the next President."
Sign up here to get the US News Political Bulletin emailed to you each morning at 8 a.m.
Top
Jay Leno: "John McCain was the big Republican winner. You know, one pundit said McCain's lucky nickel was working. He talked about this on our show. McCain always carries this nickel around. It must be lucky, because six months ago, that was his campaign war chest."
Jay Leno: "Hillary Clinton also carries a lucky nickel. Not for superstitious reasons. She just flips it when she needs a position on Iraq."
David Letterman: Top Ten Signs John McCain Is Getting Cocky:
"10. Canceled tomorrow's campaign appearances so he doesn't miss 'Lost.'
9. Spent the afternoon roughing up Romney supporters.
8. Last night, he blew half campaign war chest playing internet poker.
7. Already working on his 2012 re-election strategy.
6. Plans to campaign for the next three days in 'Vodkachusetts.'
5. Recently told voter 'Keep that ugly ass baby away from me.'
4. Now refers to Mike Huckabee as 'Mike Suckabee.'
3. Has started yelling, 'Bingo!' when he doesn't even have bingo (come on, folks, he's old!).
2. Renamed his campaign bus the 'Bite Me Express.'
1. Went to Mexico with Jessica Simpson."
Sign up here to get the US News Political Bulletin emailed to you each morning at 8 a.m.
Top
Click image for larger view.
Smart analysis, insightful reporting, in-depth perspective—in a new, digital format.
Log in | Buy Now | See sample
View sample page 2View sample page 3View sample page 4View sample page 5advertisement
Get your POLITICALBULLETIN
Click image for larger view.
Smart analysis, insightful reporting, in-depth perspective—in a new, digital format.
Log in | Buy Now | See sample
View sample page 2View sample page 3View sample page 4View sample page 5Embed exclusive U.S. News headlines, rankings, columns, and blog postings to your Web site, blog, or social network.
advertisement
Use of this Web site constitutes acceptance of our Terms and Conditions of Use and Privacy Policy.
