With voters going to the polls in 22 Democratic primaries and caucuses today, both Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are playing down expectations. The Washington Times reports Clinton strategist Mark Penn "said that because none of today's races are winner-take-all, the fight will continue on to the Potomac region contests next Tuesday, through elections in Ohio and Texas in March, and will still be contested when Pennsylvania votes in April." The Washington Post reports in a front page story that Clinton advisers "were stoic as they envisioned a 'lengthy process' that could continue for months, possibly through the Democratic convention in late August." The CBS Evening News interviewed Obama, who said, "I have no doubt that Senator Clinton is the favorite going into Super Tuesday. I mean, keep in mind it was only a couple of weeks ago where we were 30 points down in places like California and New Jersey and so she's got a built-in advantage. We would expect her to do well. We think that we're going to get our share of delegates and our share of state victories. But, you know, what is important is to see how much progress we've made over the last couple of weeks." The Wall Street Journal reports Obama campaign manager David Plouffe went "so far as to suggest that Sen. Clinton will win more states and more delegates when the polls close."
Clinton, Obama Make Final Appeals Clinton and Obama both focused on the northeast as they made their final appeals to voters. The Los Angeles Times reports a "surging" Obama "spoke at a rally at the Meadowlands in New Jersey, with Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts and Caroline Kennedy, daughter of former President John F. Kennedy, at his side." Obama held rallies in Connecticut, which the Hartford Courant said drew 17,000. The New York Times reports that campaigning in Massachusetts and Connecticut, Clinton "took aim at Mr. Obama. 'You know, change is hard,' she said, in a reference to Mr. Obama's frequent campaign message. 'I wish all you had to do was just say it's going to happen and it'll materialize. But it's going to take hard work. It's going to take every one of us.'"
Clinton Campaign Pays For National Airing Of Town Hall Meeting The New York Sun reports that the Clinton campaign last night "paid for an hour-long nationally televised town hall meeting designed to showcase what aides believe is her forte: tackling a wide range of policy issues in depth and detail. The questions, which were selected in advance, spanned subjects such as immigration, education, and America's reputation in the world." The meeting aired on the Hallmark Channel nationally.
Clinton Shows Emotion At Yale Law A number of media outlets reported on a campaign appearance by Clinton at the Yale Child Study Center at which she appeared to be emotionally affected by praise from a former colleague, Penn Rhodeen. For example, Newsday reports, "For the second time in a month," Clinton "nearly broke down on a campaign stop targeting female voters." After Rhodeen praised her, Clinton "teared up, wiping her eyes with her hand. 'I said I would not tear up,' Clinton said with a smile. 'Already we're not on that path.'"
A series of new polls out this morning suggest that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in a dogfight in today's Super Tuesday elections.
Two California Polls Conflict A SurveyUSA automated poll of 872 likely California Democratic primary voters taken February 3-4 shows Clinton leading Obama 52%-42%.
A Zogby International poll of 895 likely California Democratic primary voters taken February 3-4 shows Obama leading Clinton 49%-26%.
Clinton Up 5 In New Jersey A Zogby International poll of 872 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters taken February 2-4 shows Clinton leading Obama 46%-41%.
Obama Up Big In Georgia A Zogby International poll of 865 likely Georgia Democratic primary voters taken February 2-4 shows Obama leading Clinton 49%-29%.
Two Polls Show Tight Race In Missouri A Zogby International poll of 860 likely Missouri Democratic primary voters taken February 2-4 shows Obama leading Clinton 45%-42%.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 671 likely Missouri Democratic primary voters taken February 2-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 54%-43%.
Clinton Up Big In Massachusetts A SurveyUSA automated poll of 651 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters taken February 2-3 shows Clinton leading Obama 56%-39%.
Obama Edges Clinton In Alabama A SurveyUSA automated poll of 619 likely Alabama Democratic primary voters taken February 2-3 shows Obama leading Clinton 49%-47%.
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The Washington Post reports in a front page story that Sen. Hillary Clinton campaign officials said yesterday that she had raised about $13 million last month, well behind the $32 million brought in by Sen. Barack Obama.
As they campaigned yesterday across Super Tuesday states yesterday, John McCain and Mitt Romney's campaigns continued to spar over each others' conservative credentials. The AP reports McCain "assailed" Romney's "conservative credentials on the eve of the Super Tuesday presidential primaries, going on national television with a new campaign ad that claims Romney 'was against Ronald Reagan before he was for him.'" McCain had "eased up on his criticism" of Romney "since winning the primary in Florida last week," but with "hours to go before voting began in more than 20 states from coast to coast, McCain unloaded on Romney."
USA Today reports that in Nashville, Romney said, "On issue after issue, he is out of the mainstream of the Republican Party." The Washington Post reports in a front page story that Romney "predicted he would 'surprise' those who were expecting" McCain "to be anointed as the Republican nominee in the busiest single day of primaries and caucuses in presidential nominating history." In a "final day of furious campaigning that included a hastily arranged trip to delegate-rich California," Romney said, "I am definitely the underdog."
Dole Defends McCain In Letter To Limbaugh McCain has taken a lot of heat from conservative talk show hosts, most notably Rush Limbaugh, who has regularly criticized his conservative credentials. The AP reports McCain "got an assist" yesterday from Bob Dole, the 1996 GOP nominee. Dole wrote a letter "defending McCain to talk radio pioneer Rush Limbaugh, who has warned that to choose McCain as the Republican standard-bearer would destroy the party. Dole said he is neutral in the race but said all the major GOP candidates are mainstream Republicans." In the letter, Dole said, "I cannot recall a single instance when he did not support the party on critical votes."
Dole's effort had little impact as The Politico reports a day "ahead of the potentially decisive Super Tuesday primaries, Limbaugh launched new attacks on the senator during Monday's broadcast, declaring: 'John McCain has stabbed his own party in the back, I can't tell you how many times.'" The Washington Post reports Limbaugh has "been relentless in his criticism...prompting suggestions that he may have to soften his stance if the Arizona senator wins the nomination and faces off against Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But if that happens, Limbaugh said in an interview over the weekend, he would rather see the Democrats win the White House."
Polls out in the last 24 hours show John McCain holding wide leads in New York and New Jersey, but in a tight battle in California and Missouri. The leads for McCain in New York and New Jersey are important, as the two states will award all their delegates to the winner of the contest, as does Missouri, while California awards them in groups of three to the winners of each Congressional district (plus 11 allocated to the winner statewide).
Romney, McCain Vie For Lead In California A SurveyUSA automated poll of 556 likely California GOP primary voters taken February 3-4 shows McCain leading with 39%, followed by Romney, 38%; Huckabee, 11%; and Paul, 5%.
A Zogby International poll of 833 likely California GOP primary voters taken February 2-4 shows Romney leading with 40%, followed by McCain, 33%; Huckabee, 12%; and Paul, 3%.
McCain Up Almost 3-1 In New York A Zogby International poll of 836 likely New York GOP primary voters taken February 3-4 shows McCain leading with 56%, followed by Romney, 20%; Huckabee, 7%; and Paul, 2%.
McCain Holds Big Lead In New Jersey A Zogby International poll of 862 likely New Jersey GOP primary voters taken February 2-4 shows McCain leading with 53%, followed by Romney, 24%; Huckabee, 5%; and Paul, 4%.
Two Polls Show Tight Race In Missouri A Zogby International poll of 860 likely Missouri GOP primary voters taken February 2-4 shows McCain leading with 34%, followed by Huckabee, 27%; Romney, 24%; and Paul, 4%.
A SurveyUSA automated poll of 542 likely Missouri GOP primary voters taken February 2-3 shows McCain leading with 33%, followed by Huckabee, 21%; Romney, 28%; and Paul, 6%.
Romney Leads In Home State A SurveyUSA automated poll of 275 likely Massachusetts GOP primary voters taken February 2-3 shows Romney leading with 58%, followed by McCain, 37%; Huckabee, 3%; and Paul, 1%.
McCain, Huckabee In Tight Race In Alabama A SurveyUSA automated poll of 619 likely Alabama GOP primary voters taken February 2-3 shows McCain leading with 37%, followed by Huckabee, 35%; Romney, 19%; and Paul, 6%.
McCain Has Wide Lead A CNN /Opinion Research poll shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton nationally 49%-47%. In a mid-January edition of the poll, Clinton led Obama 42%-33%. On the GOP side, John McCain leads with 44%, followed by Mitt Romney, 29%; Mike Huckabee, 18%; and Ron Paul, 6%. The poll surveyed 972 registered voters from February 1-3.
The Los Angeles Times this morning endorses Barack Obama, saying he "offers a historic opportunity to lead the nation toward constructive change. His life experience and approach are at once global and distinctly American." The Times also endorses John McCain, who it says "differs from most of his rivals for the Republican nomination in his consistent stand against torture and his pragmatic approach to immigration and environmental issues."
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President Bush officially unveiled his final budget yesterday to largely negative media reviews and vocal Democratic criticism. Democrats, McClatchy reports, said Bush's budget "was more of the same -- big deficits, big tax breaks and big increases in defense spending," and "even Republicans conceded that Congress is likely to ignore its major provisions." USA Today says on its front page the plan "landed with a figurative thud on Capitol Hill. Democrats vowed to ignore most of the threatened cuts to Medicare and other domestic programs. ... Much of the president's plan has little chance of passage, lawmakers and budget experts say."
Virtually all news stories emphasize the large deficits forecast by the Administrations for coming years, while Bush's claim that that budget "gets to balance" in 2012 is being treated with marked skepticism and often simply ignored. That was the case with the two network newscasts that covered the President's announcement: The CBS Evening News noted "the President projects a deficit of $407 billion for 2009." ABC World News remarked, "To give you an idea of how enormous this budget is, if I was standing next to a stack of $3 trillion dollar bills, it will reach almost to the moon."
The New York Times headlines its story "Bush Presents A Budget That Would Raise The Deficit," and reports the budget was "the first to be submitted to lawmakers entirely electronically, prompting some Democrats to joke that the president did not print up copies because he had run out of red ink." The AP reports the Bush plan "would produce eyepopping federal deficits" despite its "politically wrenching curbs on Medicare," and the Los Angeles Times runs a similar front-page piece under the headline "Bush's Budget Swells Deficit." The Washington Post, meanwhile, says the budget plan for fiscal 2009 "will leave deficits of more than $400 billion this year and next, forcing his successor to grapple with a range of unpalatable choices to close the gap, according to lawmakers and budget experts."
As for Bush's claim that his plan balances the budget by 2012, CNN's The Situation Room said it "is based on several questionable assumptions. Assumption one, the president budgets $70 million more for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, only enough for the rest of this year." The Wall Street Journal also reports the "outlook" for a balanced budget in 2012 "is based on scenarios considered unlikely by budget experts, congressional Democrats and even some Republicans." The Christian Science Monitor reports "critics" say Bush "is counting on unrealistic reductions in spending on Medicare and Medicaid." McClatchy says "experts think that the administration is lowballing the deficits, and they put little stock in Bush's vow to balance the budget by 2012." Chris Edwards, "the director of tax policy for the Cato Institute, a libertarian policy research group," tells McClatchy, "I think the promise that it will be balanced by 2012 is ridiculous."
Editorials from newspapers across the ideological spectrum blasted the plan. The Washington Post says Bush "inherited a potential windfall -- and squandered it. The next president will inherit his mess." The New York Times calls Bush's plan "infuriating," adding that "thanks to Mr. Bush's profligate ways," the next president "will have even less money for solving them."
The Washington Times writes, "Presidents have been accused of offering rosy scenarios before, but the Bush administration's economic forecast for 2008 appears positively bullish." The "gross federal debt" under Bush "could conceivably increase by more than $1 trillion in a single year -- a fitting legacy for a Republican administration and Democratic-led Congress."
Among major newspapers, only the Wall Street Journal, an influential conservative editorial voice, says that "in recent years, Mr. Bush has taken important steps to recover from the spending profligacy of his first term. Even the Democratic Presidential candidates had dropped the deficit as a campaign theme. Now, however, they're back to deploring the deficit even as they're all applauding the stimulus that won't do much for the economy but is driving the higher deficit."
Budget Winners And Losers Media reports this morning analyze the main tenets of Bush budget plan. Among the winners:
The Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times, USA Today, AP and The Hill are among the news outlets noting that under Bush's budget, the Pentagon would receive largest budget since World War II.
The Wall Street Journal, AP and Washington Post report homeland security gets the largest percentage spending increase in the entire plan, with an 11% overall rise.
The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times and USA Today note the Veterans Administration, the State Department, FBI, NASA, the FDA, and science research in general all get a spending boost.
Among the losers:
The AP and Washington Times, among other media sources, say the plan would curb Medicare and Medicaid spending growth by $196 billion over five years.
Bush's budget would freeze Education Department spending, says the Washington Post, though he "would add $300 million for Pell Grants for Kids, a new voucher program."
EPA spending would decrease by $330 million, according to another Washington Post story.
The Wall Street Journal says the Department of Transportation budget would be cut "nearly $6 billion from the DOT."
USA Today reports the "Senate debate bogged down Monday night on a bill meant to boost the sagging economy by putting more money in consumers' pockets and cutting some business taxes." While "senators voted 80-4 Monday to cut off debate on a $146 billion economic plan overwhelmingly passed by the House last week," the Senate "postponed a final vote until at least Wednesday after Republicans asked for more time to examine Senate Democrats' proposed changes to the House package." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "said Republicans were 'wasting the people's time' by delaying a vote." But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell "said GOP senators just wanted time to read and understand the proposal Democrats want to approve." The New York Times notes Reid also said that if the Senate bill "failed, he might allow a vote just on the original House plan."
The Washington Post says "only three Republicans supported the Senate plan in the Finance Committee, forcing Democrats to look for at least a half-dozen additional Republican votes to gain its approval under Senate rules. That number will be higher if Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) -- facing elections in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state on Saturday -- do not participate." The Hill and Los Angeles Times also run stories on the Senate debate.
Deficit Could Kill Second Stimulus Package Roll Call, meanwhile, reports President Bush's "gloomy election-year budget and his prediction of a return to massive $400-billion-plus deficits could put a damper on Democratic plans for a second stimulus package that likely would include tens of billions in new spending." Democratic leaders "face growing resistance from conservative Democrats, particularly in the House, to plans for a second stimulus package unless it complies with pay-as-you-go budget principles. The unease among fiscal conservatives has only been bolstered by the new deficit predictions."
How Do Presidential Races Affect Economy? The Wall Street Journal reports this morning, "The turbulent presidential election season is catnip for political junkies. But investors have little reason to pay much attention." A study by Stanford economists Erik Snowberg and Eric Zitzewitz and Wharton economist Justin Wolfers in 2007 "found that Republican victories in presidential elections typically add 2% to 3% to stock prices. But that can be quickly erased if broader economic circumstances dictate." For example, adds the Journal, "stocks fell hard in the first two years after President Bush was elected, despite his arguably market-friendly tax cuts. They rose in the first two years after President Clinton was elected, despite his arguably market-averse tax increases."
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Jay Leno: "John Edwards said that even though he is out of the presidential race, he still cares for the little people. And today, to prove it, he had lunch with Dennis Kucinich."
Jay Leno: "You know what's interesting? Even though McCain is the front-runner tomorrow in the big Super Duper Tuesday thing, the other GOP candidates still sniping at each other. ... Remember the good old days when the Republican Party was united against the poor? What happened?"
David Letterman: Mitt Romney "looks like a guy who winks when he shakes your hand."
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