Political Bulletin

CAMPAIGN NEWS

Ted Kennedy To Endorse Obama Today

Sen. Ted Kennedy is set to endorse Barack Obama today, which the media sees as a coup for Obama and a rebuke by Kennedy of the campaign tone adopted by Bill Clinton. NBC Nightly News reported, "The endorsement is a huge blow to Hillary Clinton." NBC Nightly News said in a follow up analysis that while Clinton and Obama have "been courting Senator Kennedy," close associates tell NBC News "that the Senator has been appalled by what he sees as negative campaigning by the Clinton team, in particular, the former President." The New York Times reports on its front page that "both the Clintons and their allies had pressed Mr. Kennedy for weeks to remain neutral in the Democratic race, but Mr. Kennedy had become increasingly disenchanted with the tone of the Clinton campaign, aides said." The Washington Post reports on its front page that the Kennedy endorsement "represents a coup for the Illinois senator, adding an establishment seal of approval to what began a year ago as a long-shot White House bid." The Politico reports the endorsement "stunned Senate colleagues, who had expected Kennedy to remain neutral until the increasingly vitriolic nominating contest."

The AP reports, "Kennedy's endorsement was highly sought after by all the Democratic candidates. Besides his status as a liberal icon and member of the Kennedy dynasty, Kennedy boasts a broad national fundraising and political network as well." The Los Angeles Times reports Kennedy "will campaign for Obama and help him shore up support among Hispanic voters, said someone close to the endorsement announcement. ... The Obama campaign believes that Kennedy will carry influence among Hispanics, in part because of his prominent role in calling for an overhaul of immigration laws that includes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented workers."

Obama also picked up support from other members of the Kennedy family. The Providence Journal reports that Rep. Patrick Kennedy, a Congressman from Rhode Island and the son of the Senator, is also backing Obama. In the New York Times yesterday, Caroline Kennedy also endorsed Obama in an op-ed titled "A President Like My Father."

Clinton Looks To Rebound In Florida After SC Loss

Sen. Hillary Clinton is seeking to rejuvenate her campaign after Barack Obama's decisive win in South Carolina Saturday. Obama, who led most polls going into the contest there by about 10-12 points, ultimately defeated Clinton 55%-27%, with John Edwards pulling 18%. The Los Angeles Times said Obama "romped to victory" in "a landslide powered by African American voters energized by a chance to elect the nation's first black president. The win, the most lopsided of the campaign, gives the Illinois senator a big lift heading into the coast-to-coast balloting Feb. 5." On its front page, the New York Times said Obama's "convincing victory puts him on equal footing" with Clinton, with "two wins each in early-voting states," and gives him "fresh momentum as the contest plunges into a nationwide battle over the next 10 days."

Clinton began working yesterday to blunt Obama's momentum prior to the massive set of primaries on February 5, looking for a win in Florida's Democratic contest tomorrow to generate momentum. Florida is under sanction by the Democratic National Committee for scheduling its primary too early, and will not have any delegates at the National Convention. In addition, the Democratic candidates had agreed not to campaign there. However, in the face of her loss in South Carolina, Clinton appeared to step back from the pledge. The AP reports Hillary Clinton "said Sunday she was going to Florida to assure Democrats that 'their voices are heard' and to underscore her commitment to seeing the state's delegation seated at the national convention." McClatchy adds, "The Clinton campaign clearly hopes publicity from a win in Florida - even though no delegates are at stake - will help blunt any bounce Obama has received from his hefty win in South Carolina." To that end, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported that Clinton attended a fundraiser and spoke to a crowd in Siesta Keys, Florida yesterday, while the Miami Herald noted that she also made a swing through Miami Beach and vowed to return Tuesday.

Clinton Has Lead In Two Florida Polls Clinton does appear to be in good shape going into tomorrow's contest, although two new poll disagree on the size of her lead. An American Research Group survey of Florida Democrats that was released yesterday shows Clinton leading the Democratic presidential field with 58%, followed by Obama with 20% and Edwards with 15%. The poll surveyed 600 likely Florida Democratic primary voters from January 25-26.

A Strategic Vision poll shows the race significantly tighter. The poll shows Clinton leading with 49%, followed by Obama with 36% and Edwards will 11%. Strategic Vision polled 600 likely Democratic primary voters from January 25-27.

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Clinton Campaign Looks To Rein In Bill

The New York Times reports that in the wake of the South Carolina loss, the Clinton campaign team "will try to shift the former president back into the sunnier, supportive-spouse role that he played before Mrs. Clinton's loss in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton advisers said." The New York Daily News reports, "A wounded Hillary Clinton has a new message for aggressive supporters and her overzealous husband: Calm down. 'I believe we should take a deep breath,' Clinton urged Sunday. Her plea to remove the rancor from the race came as she reeled from a double-whammy drubbing from Barack Obama -- in the racially charged South Carolina Democratic primary and the Ted Kennedy endorsement sweepstakes."

McCain, Romney Battle For Florida

The GOP battle for tomorrow's Florida primary is coming down to the wire as John McCain and Mitt Romney jostle for the lead, while Rudy Giuliani, who has staked his campaign on the contest, struggles to gain traction. The AP reports the clash between McCain and Romney is "increasingly bitter and personal," and its intensity "underscores the extraordinarily close Florida race and the stakes at hand. ... Long a muddle, the GOP nomination race has narrowed into a two-man contest between Romney and McCain." The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports, "Florida's winner-take-all Republican primary on Tuesday has turned into a pivotal four-man race that could determine a front-runner for the presidential nomination and discard at least one of the leading candidates before Super Tuesday next week. ... The winner gets all of the state's 57 delegates to the party's nominating convention and, more important, a burst of momentum."

In interviews yesterday, McCain and Romney both predicted they will win the Florida primary. McCain said on NBC's Meet The Press, "I think it's going to be a close race here on Tuesday, but I think we got some good momentum." Romney said on CNN's Late Edition, "I'm planning on winning here in Florida. It's real close. I know that the political establishment is going to try and pull for John McCain, but I expect that I'm going to get the support of the people, because people are very anxious to see change."

USA Today reports Giuliani remains confident, and "has a message for those who doubt his floundering presidential campaign can survive. 'The rumors of my demise are premature,'" he told USA Today, "paraphrasing Mark Twain's famous line." Giuliani also said on CBS' Face The Nation, "We're going to win in Florida. We have been campaigning here very steadily since the early voting began. There's been an unprecedented amount of early voting. So I think we're going to do very well here. I'm confident that we're going to win."

McCain Endorsed By Martinez, Crist The Politico reports, "Two well-timed endorsements could make the difference for" McCain in tomorrow's contest over the weekend, he picked up the endorsements of Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and Sen. Mel Martinez (D). This "late support for McCain sets up a contest that will pit momentum versus organization," but "with Crist and Martinez on board, McCain seems to hold the hot hand." The New York Times adds McCain is "now accumulating a base of support among party regulars who see him as the strongest general election candidate in the remaining Republican field."

McCain Holds Narrow Lead In Two Florida Polls, Romney In One Despite the endorsements, polls show the GOP contest is extremely tight. The Zogby/C-Span Florida GOP tracking poll shows McCain leads the Republicans with 33%, followed by Romney, 30%; Giuliani, 14%; Mike Huckabee, 11%; and Ron Paul, 2%. The poll surveyed 818 likely GOP voters from January 25-27. In the previous edition of the poll, taken January 24-26, McCain and Romney were tied at 30% apiece.

A Strategic Vision poll of 600 likely Florida GOP primary voters taken January 25-27 shows McCain leading with 27%, followed by Romney, 26%; Giuliani, 17%; Huckabee, 15%; and Paul, 5%.

An American Research Group poll of 600 likely GOP primary voters taken January 25-26 shows Romney leading with 33%, followed by McCain with 32%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 11%; and Paul, 4%.

McCain Tops In Two Super Tuesday States

Democrats Split After tomorrow's contest in Florida, the race moves on to the Super Tuesday contests on February 5, with more than 20 states up for grabs for each party. A pair of polls out this weekend show John McCain leading in two of the more delegate-rich states, while Hillary Clinton and Obama split them.

Clinton, McCain Tops In Missouri A Research 2000 poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shows Clinton leading the Democratic field with 44%, followed by Obama with 33% and John Edwards with 18%. On the GOP side, 31% backed McCain, followed by Mike Huckabee, 25%; Mitt Romney, 21%; Rudy Giuliani, 8%; and Ron Paul, 6%. The poll surveyed 800 likely Missouri voters from January 21-24.

Obama, McCain Tops In Illinois A Research 2000 poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shows Obama leading the Democratic primary field in his home state of Illinois with 51%, followed by Clinton with 22% and Edwards with 15%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 31%, followed by Romney with 20% and Giuliani with 13%. The poll surveyed 800 likely Illinois voters from January 21-24.

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WASHINGTON NEWS

Paulson: Changes Could Derail Stimulus Deal

The Financial Times reports Secretary Treasury Hank Paulson "warned on Sunday that adding direct spending measures to the $150bn economic stimulus package agreed last week would be 'a slippery slope' that could derail the deal, urging the Senate to approve it quickly." Paulson said on Fox News Sunday, "The American people have got to be pleased by the bipartisanship that was exhibited this last week. It was on display. And they've got to be pleased that we reached an agreement quickly. I don't think the Senate is going to want to derail that deal."

USA Today reports Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "agreed that the negotiations should move through the House first, but he and other senators still want to have input." The Christian Science Monitor notes Reid said "proposals that don't make this version of a stimulus plan could be taken up in a longer-term stimulus plan" which, he added, "will come at a later time, but hopefully not too much later."

Conrad Touts Farm Bill As Stimulus U.S. News and World Report reports Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota last week "opined about the need for the federal government to punch some life back into the national economy, starting with a particular bill." Conrad, however, "was not referring to the much hyped $150 billion stimulus package proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, which solidified this week after several days of negotiations with House leaders of both parties. Instead, he was referring to the controversial farm bill, which in one way or another affects every American who pours a bowl of cereal, drives to work, buys produce, needs food stamps, or eats anything from Angus beef to jelly beans to spinach." US News adds that to "call the farm bill 'the most important' medicine available for the ailing economy is an opinion, but it's certainly not blatant hyperbole."

Foreclosures Leave Mayors Scrambling The Wall Street Journal reports, "Local governments are scrambling to deal with the rising number of foreclosures that strain city services and soon may take a toll on property-tax revenue." Stemming foreclosures "and managing vacant properties so that years of economic development doesn't unravel was a priority as the nation's mayors gathered in Washington last week. Many localities have set up efforts to reach the 50% of people who never even speak to their lender before their homes are foreclosed."

Ad Industry: Economy Is In Recession The New York Times reports, "Let the economists and politicians debate whether the American economy is in a recession. Madison Avenue is already battening down the hatches." Marketers are launching "many campaigns speaking to Americans as if a recession were already under way." However, "while many marketers may be looking to adjust the contents of their campaigns, forecasters believe overall advertising spending will remain strong as a recession looms."

Bush To Address Economy, War On Terror

As George W. Bush prepares to deliver his last State of the Union speech tonight, media reports note the President's remarks will not focus on his legacy, but rather on a new series of proposals for his last year in office. Last night, NBC Nightly News reported the President "will give a status report on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He'll also touch on some issues that frankly have been on the back burner for quite sometime, including a renewed call for comprehensive immigration reform. Lastly we're told the President will spend a great deal of time and energy talking about the economy." The Financial Times notes Dana Perino, the White House press secretary, said of the address, "The president says he wants to sprint to the finish, and that's what this speech is going to be about." In doing so, says USA Today, Bush will be "stealing a page from Ronald Reagan's playbook. Two decades ago, Reagan, in his last address to Congress, focused on legislation, not legacy."

The New York Times, meanwhile, reports Bush's speech "will reflect diminished domestic ambitions. That is not unusual for lame-duck presidents, who typically elevate foreign policy concerns in their final year, since by that point their clout on Capitol Hill has waned." Under the headline "Bush To Pitch Free Trade," the Wall Street Journal reports the President will also urge "passage of a pact with Colombia in a State of the Union address." The Washington Times, under the headline "Bush's Speech To Stress Economy," says Iraq has "moved off the front pages this year as violence there has decreased, and while Mr. Bush can take some credit for the difference his troop surge has made, he will have to devote more time in his speech to confronting the greatest current concern to most Americans."

Media analyses of the President's address suggest recent economic uncertainty could make it more difficult for Bush to regain his political footing. The Washington Post reports the economy "has supplanted Iraq as the top public concern, and with voters shifting their focus toward the presidential primaries, Bush faces a steep challenge in persuading Americans to heed his words on the war, economic policy or any other issue, according to administration officials, lawmakers and outside observers." The New York Times asks whether Bush will be "remembered as the president who lost the economy while trying to win a war?" McClatchy reports Bush "aides" are "privately acknowledging that the moments when Bush can be relevant are dwindling fast," and as a result he "is expected to press for a shortened list of proposals."

Sick Ground Zero Worker To Attend Speech The Washington Post reports Joseph Libretti, who was "diagnosed with chronic lung disease" after volunteering to work at Ground Zero following 9/11, will attend the President's State of the Union speech Monday, "his very presence a form of protest."

Bush Defends Legacy, Freedom Agenda

On Sunday evening, Fox News aired a special one-hour documentary called "George W. Bush: Fighting To The Finish" that featured an extended interview with Bush. In the introduction to the documentary, reporter Bret Baier said Bush's presidency has "had enormous consequences for the United States and the world. For better for worse, he rejected small ball and embraced grand sweeping initiatives that promise great rewards, but at great risk and often great controversy. He's determined to keep making his mark on history." In the interview, the President said, "I tell people I want my Administration to have written a hopeful and strong first chapter in this ideological struggle that will play out over the course of your child's lifetime. And the best legacy a president can leave behind is to say to a dad, 'Your young son is more likely to live in peace as a result of the policies I've put forward.'"

Later, Bush said, "The biggest idea internationally is the advance of democracy and freedom. I fully recognize some in our country and some around the world just say, 'That is the wrong policy; what we ought to promote is stability.' Stability hasn't worked."

Asked to comment on the immigration debate, Bush said, "We lose the essence of America if we somewhat bash immigrants. Great thing about America, we're a home of immigrants. I am concerned that an emotional debate to pit people against each other will cause America to lose its soul."

Bush: Iraq Victory Will Be "Gradual" Bush also addressed Iraq, telling Fox News, "Victory in Iraq is going to be gradual. The security situation has improved. The political situation is better and the economy is improving, but it takes a while to recover from a tyrannical situation."

Bush Remains Influential Among Republicans The Wall Street Journal says while the candidates "aren't talking much about Mr. Bush, his legacy of aggressive policy moves is proving more difficult to avoid. Reluctantly or not, the leading Republican candidates find themselves embracing many of his policies, even as they continue to stir opposition and anger among Democrats and many independents."

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "They're trying to pass a bill now that allows politicians to insist that they be addressed by gender neutral titles. Is that really necessary? I mean, don't we already have gender neutral titles for politicians? 'Crook,' 'liar,' 'adulterer,' 'pinhead,' 'moron,' these are all gender neutral."

David Letterman: Top Ten Rejected Titles For The George W. Bush Movie.

"10. 'Jackass 3.'

9. 'The Lyin' King.'

8. 'The Departed As Of January 20th, 2009.'

7. 'Stop Or My Vice President Will Shoot.'

6. 'Dial M For Moron.'

5. 'Das Boob."

4. 'When Sally Met Cheney's Daughter.'

3. 'White Men Can't Govern.'

2. 'The Nightmare Before Hillary.'

1. 'Raging Bull****.'"

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