Hillary Clinton's 39%-37% win over Barack Obama in New Hampshire caught almost everyone by surprise last night particularly pollsters, who had universally forecast a comfortable Obama win. With 96% of precincts reporting, John Edwards placed a distant 3rd with 17%, followed by Bill Richardson with 5% and Dennis Kucinich with 1%, according to CNN's numbers. This morning, media reports are describing the New York senator's upset win as a startling political event. The Politico reports the primary's outcome "made fools of the pollsters, pundits, operatives and even some people in her own campaign who had predicted her imminent demise." The AP calls it a "startling upset," one that resurrects Clinton's "bid for the White House." Exit polls, adds the AP, suggest Clinton's win was cemented on the support of female voters, who "deserted her last week" in Iowa and "returned to her column in New Hampshire." Clinton also "was winning handily among registered Democrats. Obama led her by an even larger margin" than in Iowa "among independents, but he suffered from a falloff in turnout among young voters." The New York Times also reports Clinton "rode a wave of female support" to victory, adding "several New Hampshire women, some of them undecided until Tuesday, said that a galvanizing moment for them had been Mrs. Clinton's unusual display of emotion on Monday as she described the pressures of the race and her goals for the nation -- a moment Mrs. Clinton herself acknowledged as a breakthrough."
In remarks to her supporters, Clinton said last night, "I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I am so gratified that you responded. ... Now together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me." The Wall Street Journal reports that "arrayed behind her for the television audience were cheering young people," in a "purposeful contrast with her concession speech in Iowa, where senior citizens and Washington establishment figures were her backdrop -- paining supporters who noted that...Obama had won with the support and energy of younger voters."
The Financial Times reports "the Clinton campaign itself seemed stunned by her victory. Just hours before results were due, Terry McAuliffe, her campaign chairman, indicated her team was ready for a new strategy and spoke of recruiting new 'top-level' advisers in the wake of the third-place finish in Iowa." In similar reporting, the Washington Post says Clinton's win, "defying predictions that she would be swamped by Obama," came as "a shock even to her staff members." But "the team wasted no time embracing its success. Even before the outcome was official, Clinton advisers were saying that the Obama 'wave has crested.'" The Post adds "Obama advisers...were left struggling to explain why the momentum they sensed on the ground and in polls over the past five days did not translate into more votes."
The Los Angeles Times notes that speaking to supporters, "Obama acknowledged that 'the battle ahead will be long,' but said that nothing could stand in the way of 'millions of voices calling for change.'" The AP reports Obama "had hoped that a victory in Iowa would create a bandwagon that would take him through the nomination. But Tuesday night's results caught his campaign off guard. ... Building on Iowa's momentum, Obama had the feel of a winner in the days leading up to New Hampshire's primary. People lined up for blocks in towns across the state to hear him speak. Those who attended often talked about the chance to see history being made." However, the "excitement" couldn't "overcome Clinton's organization, and she revived talk of another Clinton presidency with her victory on Tuesday night."
While most analysts remain unsure of its effect on the race for the GOP nomination, John McCain's victory in New Hampshire is being hailed as an remarkable comeback for a campaign that had been given up for dead last summer. The Chicago Tribune reports McCain "won with 37 percent compared to 32 percent for Romney, who was forced to re-examine his candidacy, which was premised on winning Iowa and New Hampshire to create a national juggernaut." Mike Huckabee placed 3rd with 11%, followed by Rudy Giuliani, 9%; Ron Paul, 8%; and Fred Thompson, 1%.
USA Today reports "political analyst Charles Cook called McCain's victory 'the greatest comeback since Lazarus,'" and "attributes it to 'an enormous vacuum in the Republican Party.'" Using the same metaphor, the New York Times reports McCain "revived his presidential bid with a Lazarus-like victory." The Times adds that "to cheers of 'Mac is back,' Mr. McCain told supporters last night: 'My friends, you know I'm past the age when I can claim the noun "kid," no matter what adjective precedes it. But tonight, we sure showed them what a comeback looks like.'"
The "Lazarus" simile seems to have originated with McCain himself. The Wall Street Journal reports that "Orson Swindle, a Vietnam veteran who spent two years in a cell with John McCain when they were prisoners of war," last weekend saw "surging crowds and polls" in New Hampshire, indicating "McCain was pulling to the front of the Republican pack ahead of Tuesday's New Hampshire primary." Said Swindle, "John has cheated death again." The Journal also reports that speaking to reporters recently, McCain said, "I'm not even supposed to be here," and that "marveling on what he called his 'Lazarus life,' he said: 'I feel momentum again.'" McClatchy's report appears to quote from the same conversation between McCain and reporters riding his "Straight Talk Express," noting that "in recent remarks to reporters, McCain pinpointed the beginning of his remarkable comeback 'a very slow snowball,' he called it -- to a debate just after Labor Day in New Hampshire, when he gave a moving, emotional answer to a young woman who stood to ask if her brother's death in Iraq had been worth it. 'That was quite a moment, and one I'll never forget. ... It was when people first really started looking at the candidates,' McCain told reporters."
The Wall Street Journal also reports McCain's victory "marked an improbable comeback. Once the Republican front-runner, his campaign all but collapsed last summer, in part due to his unpopular stance in favor of allowing illegal immigrants to earn citizenship. While he faces continued financial and organizational problems, his win in New Hampshire gives him a big second wind in a national contest that still has no favorite or heir apparent."
USA Today notes "the Associated Press and the television networks conducted surveys of voters as they left polling places that showed McCain won among Republican voters who regard the war as their top issue and among those who disapproved of the war." McCain "topped Romney and the rest of the Republican field among both men and women; he also prevailed among most age groups, though Romney did best among voters 65 and older. McCain also won among most of the income categories, except for Romney's edge among voters who said they make $150,000-$199,999 a year." The New York Times reports McCain beat Romney "among undeclared voters, who have been a mainstay of his support, and registered Republicans."
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The New York Times reports John Edwards said last night "that he would continue his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, despite his distant third-place showing in the New Hampshire primary. ... 'Last week I congratulated Senator Obama when he finished first and I finished second in Iowa - one race down,' Mr. Edwards said. 'Tonight, I congratulate Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. Two races down; 48 states left to go.'" Edwards "has set his sights on the Jan. 26 Democratic primary in South Carolina," and campaign manager Joe Trippi said, "We're not going anywhere. We're going to have three candidates who are rolling it through all 50 states." The AP quotes Edwards as saying, "Up until now, about half of 1 percent of Americans have voted. Ninety-nine percent plus have not voted. And those 99 percent deserve to have their voices heard because we have had too much in America of people's voices not being heard."
However, despite his optimism, the Los Angeles Times reports Edwards' campaign "has not been able to raise the kind of money that his top rivals," Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, "have pulled in. ... Both Iowa and New Hampshire are states that can be won the old-fashioned way: with door-knocking, handshaking and a grueling pace of public appearances. Edwards has a disadvantage in large states like California, New York and Illinois. Those states are usually won by gaining attention in the news media, which often focus on which candidate has momentum and has captured the voters' interest, and by airing expensive television ads."
The split in the first two nominating contests is seen as throwing the Democratic race wide open. The New York Times reports Barack Obama "was counting on a New Hampshire victory to serve as a permission slip for Democratic leaders across the country to step forward to support his candidacy. He was hoping to trade the title of insurgent candidate for the perilous crown of front-runner. But the race is now a draw between the two rivals - with John Edwards of North Carolina, who came in a distant third, vowing to continue - and a furious scramble lies ahead." Similarly, the Washington Post reports, "Clinton's unexpected victory in New Hampshire brought her once-reticent supporters out in droves. But no one was about to claim the mantle of front-runner."
McClatchy reports that the outcome of the first two primaries "suggests an epic struggle in coming weeks, a clash between generations and political styles underscored by the historic possibility of nominating an African-American or a woman for the first time." McClatchy adds that it is now "a two-person race and a contest over who has the more appealing voice and the style better suited to deliver such Democratic goals as ending the war in Iraq and expanding health care. ... The Clinton-Obama contest will be fought along generational and gender lines that divide the party and help explain Tuesday's results."
While Michigan is next on the nominating calendar for the Democrats, holding its contest on January 15, Clinton is the only major candidate on the ballot. The state was punished by the Democratic National Committee for moving up its primary contest in violation of party rules, and John Edwards and Barack Obama removed their names from the ballot. Consequently, the focus is now on Nevada, which holds its caucuses on January 19, and South Carolina, which holds it Democratic primary on January 26. Florida follows next on January 29, but it too has been sanctioned by the DNC, and candidates have pledged not to campaign there.
The action is already heating up in Nevada. The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that UNITE HERE, "which represents 460,000 hotel and apparel workers," is expected to endorse Obama today. The move "would be the first national labor endorsement for Mr. Obama and would give him a leg up in the Jan. 19 caucus in Nevada, where the union's 60,000-member culinary-workers local is by far the state's largest labor presence and is expected to turn out a sizable percentage of caucus-goers." Meanwhile, the Reno Gazette-Journal reports that Clinton's campaign "dispelled rumors" that she would not focus on Nevada. Her state spokeswoman said, "She sees Nevada as an important momentum builder. It's important because it's the first voice in West. We expect to see Sen. Clinton here a lot over the last 11 days."
The other focus is on South Carolina, the first Southern contest and the first to include significant numbers of black voters, who are expected to make up about half of the Democratic voters. Polls prior to the New Hampshire showed Obama with a commanding lead. However, the Washington Times reports that South Carolina's black legislators, "unconvinced that America is ready for a black president, are sticking by" Clinton "even as black voters flock to support" Obama. The Washington Post adds that Clinton and Obama "have long competed for black support" in South Carolina.
Looking farther down the road, a mass of states, including California, New York, and New Jersey, hold their primaries on February 5, and the San Francisco Chronicle reports this morning that both Obama and Clinton are already ramping up their efforts in the state.
There's little consensus among analysts about the effect of John McCain's New Hampshire win on the broader battle for the nomination. The next contest is in Michigan on January 15, followed by South Carolina on the 19th and Florida on the 29th. The New York Times reports "the Republican field is more scrambled than ever, with the battleground now shifting to a series of states where each of the leading candidates believes he holds certain advantages." McCain "is looking to finish off Mr. Romney" in Michigan, but "a wild card is Mike Huckabee, who has surged to the lead in some national polls. He hopes to be competitive in Michigan but is looking more toward the Jan. 19 primary in South Carolina, a state with many evangelical Christians who are drawn to this former Baptist pastor. Waiting in the wings is a weakened Rudolph W. Giuliani, who is now focused almost exclusively on a victory in Florida's primary on Jan. 29 to slingshot him to the nationwide contests on Feb. 5."
The Politico reports, "In order to cement his front-runner status, McCain would need to capitalize quickly on the win with immediate success in the two states leading up to the jackpot of Florida on Jan. 29." The Arizona senator "will hit both of those states on Wednesday, jetting out of New Hampshire on a charter jet with a flock of national reporters -- two things that he conspicuously lacked until recently. He'll hold daytime events in Michigan before ending up at a rally at The Citadel in Charleston, S.C., at night -- the same military setting where he finished his September "No Surrender" tour that aides now credit for helping him get back on course." The Politico adds, "There are reasons, however, to doubt whether McCain can turn a New Hampshire victory into a bounce elsewhere, including persistent skepticism from the Republican base. The big question: Will Republicans nominate somebody whose immigration views run counter to those of the vast majority of the party?"
The Los Angeles Times reports that McCain "won decisively among independents" in New Hampshire, but that conservatives strongly supported Romney. "That suggests McCain faces an uphill battle in states where the Republican electorate is more conservative than in New Hampshire."
The Detroit News reports that Romney "will return to his native state today, fighting for the life of his presidential campaign against a resurgent John McCain, whose victory in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary means crucial momentum headed into Michigan's Jan. 15 primary." McCain also "campaigns today in Grand Rapids and Oakland County, and has an intense schedule of appearances leading up to the primary -- as does Romney," who "now desperately needs a Michigan victory to keep his once-promising campaign alive. But neither man can count out Mike Huckabee, who said Tuesday he will advertise and campaign seriously in Michigan."
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In the run-up to his January 28th State of the Union speech, the President continues to publicly voice optimistic caution about the state of the economy as he considers what, if anything, to prevent a downturn. The Wall Street Journal notes, "Faced with recession fears, the White House is considering tax rebates for individuals to encourage spending and tax breaks for businesses to encourage investment, according to people familiar with the matter." In a press conference yesterday, President Bush "said his administration will 'look at all different options.'" The AP notes Bush yesterday continued to speak "of his confidence in the American economic system and the ability of it -- and his administration -- to weather even severe shocks."
Meanwhile, USA Today reports "prominent economist" Martin Feldstein warns the US "will likely sink into recession in 2008, and it could be 'nasty' if policymakers don't act swiftly." Feldstein said, "If we don't have some offsetting policy, and we move into a recession, then I'm afraid the fact that we've got all these things hitting at the same time could make it pretty nasty."
However, even Federal Reserve officials differ on what action to take. The Wall Street Journal reports Fed officials "appear to have entered last month's policy meeting with an unusually wide range of views about how to respond to the uncertainties facing the economy, minutes of the central bank's discount-rate deliberations show." The minutes "indicate that three regional Fed banks...sought half-point cuts in the discount rate, at which the Fed makes direct loans." But two Fed banks "wanted no change," and the "other seven regional banks backed a quarter-point reduction to 4.75%, which was ultimately approved."
The AP reports that an AP reporter was allowed "to sit in on a briefing" for President Bush "by leaders of provincial reconstruction teams in Iraq. What Bush likes to call the 'political surge' that goes along with the military surge he ordered a year ago, these teams are integrated units of U.S. civilian, military and diplomatic workers deployed across the country as mentors to help local Iraqis govern, boost their economies and restart basic services still missing in much of Iraq." After the briefing, Bush said he was confident "that recent security gains are producing political successes, and will do so even more. The president said that last year, particularly at the end, 'has become incredibly successful beyond anybody's expectations.'"
Kurds Trying To Oust Maliki? The Washington Post's David Ignatius writes, "A new movement to oust Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is gathering force in Baghdad. And although the United States is counseling against this change of government, a senior U.S. official in the Iraqi capital says it's a moment of 'breakthrough or breakdown' for Maliki's regime. The new push against Maliki comes from Kurdish leaders, who, US and Iraqi sources told me, sent him an ultimatum in late December." The Kurds "are upset that Maliki hasn't delivered on promises they say he made to them last summer, when he was trying to stave off an earlier attempted putsch."
US Offensive Targets Al Qaeda In Iraq The CBS Evening News reported the US military "launched a new offensive today. It's called Operation Phantom Phoenix, and it's aimed at dealing a knockout blow to al Qaeda in Iraq." USA Today adds that the "countrywide offensive...targeting al-Qaeda in Iraq" was spurred by "an upsurge in suicide bombings that U.S. commanders say are an attempt by the militant group to reignite sectarian violence." Al Qaeda "is now targeting mostly Sunni neighborhood patrols - the armed volunteers paid by the U.S. military that include former insurgent fighters who have turned against al-Qaeda."
According to the Washington Post, "The unusually large attack by 5,000 U.S. and Iraqi troops in volatile Diyala province reflects growing concern that success in rooting the group out of Baghdad and Anbar province to the west has driven its members to northern areas such as the Diyala River Valley and the city of Mosul." However, Lt. Col. Rod Coffey, "who leads the squadron that first attacked the area, said initial reports from villagers indicated that many of the Sunni insurgents, fearing a U.S. offensive, had left more than a week ago."
Tensions between Washington and Tehran rose Tuesday as the Pentagon released new video footage of this weekend's encounter by US Naval ships in the Straight of Hormuz with Iranian ships, an event President Bush denounced as a "provocative act." Speaking to reporters at a White House press conference, Bush warned that "it is a dangerous situation," adding that the Iranians "should not have done it, pure and simple." The story received attention from all three networks last night, and is likely to loom over Bush's trip to the Middle East (which starts today), where he is expected to push for a peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians and further his democracy agenda in the region.
Yesterday's Rose Garden comments about the Straight of Hormuz incident, says the Wall Street Journal, "served as a reminder that Iran will cast a shadow over...Bush's Middle East trip." Iran "seemed certain to dominate Mr. Bush's coming meetings with Mideast leaders even before the confrontation, because every nation on Mr. Bush's itinerary -- from Israel to Sunni Arab powers Egypt and Saudi Arabia -- is alarmed by Iran's rising influence over the region." However, "It is unclear if the latest incident will reassure the Israeli and Arab leaders or alarm them further."
During his press conference yesterday, the Washington Post reports, Bush also "acknowledged...that a 'mixed signal' had been sent by a National Intelligence Estimate, released last month, that concluded that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003." During his trip, he said, he will remind allies that "Iran was a threat. Iran is a threat. And Iran will continue to be a threat if they are allowed to learn how to enrich uranium." The videotape's release Tuesday, the New York Times reports, "may also help Mr. Bush make his case," which has "grown more complicated since the release" of the NIE.
The Washington Post reports President Bush "signed legislation yesterday aimed at preventing the severely mentally ill from buying guns, a bill backed by both parties after the bloody Virginia Tech University shooting." The law "authorizes as much as $1.3 billion in grant money for states to improve their ability to track and report individuals who should not qualify to buy a gun legally, including those involuntarily confined by a mental institution."
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The AP reports Federal Magistrate John Facciola "has ordered the White House to reveal whether copies of missing e-mail messages written from 2003 to 2005 during an investigation into the disclosure of the name of a C.I.A. operative are stored in computer backup files." The order was "issued Tuesday as the White House tried to win dismissal of lawsuits by two private groups that are seeking the missing messages."
The Washington Post's Al Kamen writes in his "In the Loop" column on "persistent chatter" at the UN that US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad is "thinking of running for president...of Afghanistan." The Afghan-born Khalilzad "is said to be in the mix for a run, which would probably be in the fall of 2009." But when asked about this on Monday afternoon, Khalilzad said through spokesman Richard Grenell that "he is not a candidate for president of Afghanistan."
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Jay Leno: "Former President Bill Clinton said today he is more worried about his wife's campaign than he's ever been about any of his own elections. Well, sure. He knows if she loses, they have to go home together."
David Letterman: "John McCain is leading in New Hampshire. McCain really, really wants to be president. As a matter of fact, it's number two on his bucket list."
Jimmy Kimmel: "They held the New Hampshire caucuses today. ... When I last checked, Hillary Clinton had a slight lead for the Democrats over Barack Obama. That one was...so close" they "almost had to call Oprah in to make a final decision."
Craig Ferguson: "President Bush today left for the Middle East. At the airport he said he wants to bring peace to Gandalf and all of the hobbits that live out there."
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