As voters head to the polls today in New Hampshire, Barack Obama leads in all 8 new polls released in the last 24 hours, while John McCain tops Mitt Romney in 7 of the 8. The Washington Post reports, "Polls point to a mirror image of the Republican contest of 2000 and the Democratic race four years ago. If the results match those forecasts, Barack Obama will have followed John Kerry in securing the Democratic nomination by backing up his victory in the Iowa caucuses with a decisive win," while McCain "could once again defeat the early Republican favorite, as he did in 2000, setting up a further set of showdowns in other states."
An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic voters conducted January 6-7 has Obama at 40%, followed by Clinton, 31%; Edwards, 20%; and Richardson, 4%. Among 600 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 31%, followed by Romney, 24%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 13%; and Paul, 9%.
A CNN/WMUR poll of 599 likely Democratic voters has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 30%; Edwards, 16%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 492 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 31%, Romney 26%, Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 10%; and Paul, 10%.
A Fox News /Opinion Dynamics poll taken January 4-6 shows Obama leading with 32%, followed by Clinton with 28%; Edwards, 18%; and Richardson, 6%. Among Republicans, McCain leads with 34%, followed by Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 11%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 5%.
A Marist College Poll shows Obama leading with 36%, followed by Clinton with 28% and Edwards with 22%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney at 31% and Huckabee with 13%. Marist surveyed 788 likely Democratic primary voters and 628 likely GOP primary voters on January 5-6.
The Zogby International /C-Span tracking poll of 844 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-6 has Obama at 39%; followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 6%. In yesterday's release, which covered polling done January 2-5, Clinton led Obama 31%-30%. In Zogby's final pre-Iowa survey of New Hampshire sentiment, Clinton led Obama 32%-26%. On the GOP side, the poll of 834 likely Republican voters shows little change in recent days; McCain leads with 34%; followed by Romney, 29%; Huckabee, 10%; Giuliani, 9%; and Paul, 6%.
A Rasmussen automated poll of 1,203 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 38%, followed by Clinton, 28%; Edwards, 18%; Richardson, 8%; and Kucinich, 4%. Among 1,094 likely Republican voters, McCain leads with 32%, followed by Romney, 31%; Huckabee, 11%; Giuliani, 10%; Paul, 8%; and Thompson, 3%.
A CBS News poll of 323 likely Democratic voters taken January 5-6 shows Obama leading with 35%, followed by Clinton with 28% and Edwards with 19%. The same sample of Democrats, interviewed back in November, had backed Clinton over Obama 39%-19%. CBS says they reached too small a sample of Republican voters to give a statistically valid sample, but they noted that McCain was gaining support and Romney was losing it.
Romney Tops McCain In Single Poll The latest Suffolk University/7News poll shows the opposite trend of most other surveys Romney has actually made up significant ground since the day of the Iowa caucuses, when he trailed McCain 29%-25% in the tracking. Among 500 likely Republican voters, Romney is now at 30%, followed by McCain, 27%; Giuliani, 10%; and Huckabee, 9%. On the Democratic side, the Suffolk University tracking poll of 500 likely Democratic voters has Obama at 35%; Clinton, 34%; and Edwards, 15%. However, the closeness of the result might not be much consolation to the Clinton campaign Clinton led Obama 39%-23% in the tracking on Thursday, the day of the Iowa caucuses, and has seen her lead erode steadily every day since then. The survey was taken January 5-6.
The Concord Monitor reports that Romney on Monday "played down expectations and ramped up his biggest-in-the-Republican-field campaign machine." While "Romney had long said his candidacy hinged on wins in early states, he's retooled that strategy since his second-place finish in Iowa's leadoff caucus. ... Yesterday, he noted his finish in Wyoming's Republican caucus and argued that second place in New Hampshire would be good enough. 'If I come in a second-place finish, that will actually say that I am clearly one of the leading contenders,' Romney said. 'I will have come in second in Iowa, first in Wyoming, second in New Hampshire. That will mean that I probably have more votes than anybody else in those first three states.'"
ABC World News reported, "For the first time today," Romney "suggested he would be satisfied with second place here." Romney: "If I come in a second place finish, that will actually say that I am clearly one of the leading contenders." Berman: "It will also say that he is zero for two in the first major contests despite, once again, spending more than $7 million on ads, more than all his opponents combined. And it would be particularly stinging, because New Hampshire is his backyard."
McCain Predicts Victory The New Hampshire Union Leader reports, "A confident John McCain was predicting victory as he toured New Hampshire yesterday addressing hundreds of enthusiastic supporters at each stop along the way." In Manchester, McCain "told the crowd a New Hampshire win and he would 'march on to victory.'" The Hill says McCain "addressed many supports and throngs of press," emphasizing that he "wants 'to restore trust and confidence in government.'" The Washington Post has a front-page profile headlined "The Guy With The Bus Is On A Roll," saying there is "a hint of the spirit of 2000 in McCain's campaign."
Political Buzz: Large Loss Could Be The End Of Clinton Campaign A recurring theme is today's media coverage is the danger the contest poses to Clinton's fortunes. In a front-page story, the Wall Street Journal says Obama is "strongly favored -- even within Hillary Clinton's camp -- to win a second straight victory in today's New Hampshire Democratic primary," threatening "to swamp her in the next two states as well." Some "Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could," and "several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers" about endorsing him "over his more experienced colleague." The Washington Post reports on its front page that Clinton "is frantically trying to slow the momentum of a surging Obama" in a race that could have "enormous significance." The Washington Times says Clinton "was forced to fend off rumors that she would end her presidential bid should she lose today." NPR's Day To Day said, "Obama heads into tomorrow's primary with a strong lead. A number of polls have it in the double digits over Hillary Rodham Clinton, and many of those polled mentioned the word 'electability.' That's a term that before Iowa was more closely associated with Sen. Clinton."
The small New Hampshire towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location cast the first ballots of the state's presidential primary just after midnight, giving Sen. Barack Obama an early lead on the Democratic side with 16 votes, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards with three each, and one for Gov. Bill Richardson. On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain took 10 votes, Mike Huckabee five, Rep. Ron Paul four, Mitt Romney three, and Rudy Giuliani one. Polls close in the rest of the state at 8:00 p.m. EST, and last-minute polls and media prognostication suggest that while both parties' contests remain close, McCain has the GOP lead and Obama has the Democratic momentum. However, some reports say Romney has been regaining lost ground, and that if independents do not choose to vote in the Republican race, Romney could still pull off a win.
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NBC Nightly News reported last night in its lead story, "Confronted by the surge of support for Barack Obama," Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign "is trying to survive New Hampshire, get by New Hampshire, and then regroup for the primaries still to come. Clearly showing the strain this morning, Hillary Clinton was right on the edge when a woman asked how she stays so upbeat." Clinton: "It is not easy. It's not easy. And I couldn't do it if I just didn't, you know, passionately believe it was the right thing to do. You know, I have so many opportunities for this country. I just don't want to see us fall backwards. No. So. You know, this is very personal for me. It's not just political, it's not just public. I see what's happening. And we have to reverse it. And some people think elections are a game, they think it's like who's up or who's down. It is about our country, it's about our kids' futures. And it is really about all of us together."
ABC World News reported in its lead story that Clinton "today gave indication of just how much fatigue and emotion plays in to running for president." ABC (Snow) added, "Sen. Clinton never actually let a tear escape from her eye and roll down her face. But if you were in the room, you could tell that she was clearly fighting back tears. The question now with her campaign struggling is will this one moment help or hurt?" The CBS Evening News reported, "All the candidates are feeling the pressure and at a campaign stop today, a rare show of emotion from Sen. Clinton when she took a question from a voter." CBS (Axelrod) added, "After thousands and thousands of questions over the years from the most tough-minded and aggressive reporters, it took a 64-year-old woman attending a campaign event to elicit just about the most personal reaction we've ever seen from Hillary Clinton."
The New York Times reports, "Everything is on the table" inside Clinton's campaign "if she loses the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, her advisers say -- including her style of campaigning, which shifted dramatically on Monday when Mrs. Clinton bared her thoughts about the race's impact on her personally, and her eyes welled with tears. ... Her eyes visibly wet, in perhaps the most public display of emotion of her year-old campaign, Mrs. Clinton added: 'I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don't want to see us fall backwards. This is very personal for me -- it's not just political, it's not just public.'" Clinton "did not cry, but her quavering voice and the flash of feeling underscored the pressure, fatigue, anger and disappointment that, advisers say, Mrs. Clinton has experienced since her loss on Thursday in the Iowa caucuses and that she continues to shoulder at this most critical moment."
In an article on the website of TIME, Karen Tumulty writes that an urgent need for more campaign cash is accompanying Sen. Hillary Clinton's "devastating loss in Iowa and dropping poll numbers in New Hampshire," suggesting that to regain her momentum and compete in "big and expensive states like New York and California that hold their primaries on February 5, Clinton's campaign is putting new pressure on its fundraisers to come up with the cash she will need to carry her through. ... One reason for the new drive to raise cash quickly is the fact that Clinton spent lavishly on what turned out to be a debacle in Iowa. Numbers circulating among fundraisers - but not confirmed by the campaign - suggest that the campaign may have as little as $15 million to $25 million left on hand."
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The New York Times reports in a front page story that in a Chicago speech to business leaders, President Bush, "in a marked shift from his usual upbeat economic assessments, conceded here on Monday that the nation faces 'economic challenges' due to rising oil prices, the home mortgage crisis and a weakening job market." Bush said, "We cannot take growth for granted." Fox News Special Report reported that President Bush "acknowledged that people are experiencing some anxiety but he told a Chicago audience that the US economy is resilient because it depends on free enterprise. Mr. Bush said pro-growth policies are what works."
The Washington Post reports Bush "gave a wide-ranging speech about the economy yesterday, but proposed no new policies to deal with the emerging economic distress. Instead, he asked Congress to take up various actions that have been mainstays of the administration's second-term economic policy." The Financial Times reports "speculation is mounting" that President Bush "could propose a fiscal stimulus package to help keep the US out of recession in his State of the Union address this month."
The New York Times reports if President Bush "becomes convinced the economy is indeed headed toward a recession, he is likely to respond much as he did on entering office in 2001 with the economy on the verge of a downturn: lower tax rates for people at all income levels and provide tax breaks for businesses." But while "many Democrats can be expected to favor at least some tax cuts, they will seek temporary measures that are aimed at low- and middle-income Americans."
Paulson Suggests More Mortgage Aid The Wall Street Journal reports Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson "suggested the mortgage industry should consider greatly expanding its White House-backed program to ease loan terms for millions of financially troubled homeowners whose mortgages are due to rise." Paulson's remarks on Monday "mark the first time the Bush administration has hinted that the plan to expedite refinancing or freeze interest rates for cash-strapped subprime borrowers should also target homeowners who took out other kinds of adjustable-rate loans." Fox News Special Report reported Treasury Secretary Paulson "says the Bush administration is working to deal with the housing crisis but there are no easy answers."
The AP reports Paulson said the Administration is "working on a number of fronts to combat the country's severe housing crisis but there is no simple solution to the problem." Paulson "called the current housing correction inevitable after what occurred during the five-year boom in which sales and prices climbed to record levels."
As President Bush prepares to depart later today for his first trip to the Middle East, expectations for the visit remain low as violence continues in Gaza and as news surfaced Monday about a weekend encounter between US and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf.
McClatchy, for example, says Bush, "who once had grand ambitions to transform the Middle East through democratic reform, begins his first extended presidential visit to the region Tuesday with his sights lowered and his ability to influence events fading fast." Similarly, the Christian Science Monitor reports that one "difficulty for Bush is that he makes his trip as the US presidential race grabs the headlines."
The Washington Post reports Bush is "hoping to breathe new life into talks aimed at achieving a final accord by the end of this year. But the president is already scaling back those ambitions, saying now it may be possible to set only the 'definition' of a Palestinian state by the time he leaves office."
Further heightening tensions in the region ahead of Bush's visit, NBC Nightly News reported, "We learned today of a tense encounter involving three US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf over the weekend. The Pentagon says five Iranian gunboats harassed the ships in the Strait of Hormuz off the Iranian coast, including a threat to use explosives in the confrontation. Pentagon described the incident as quote, 'careless, reckless and potentially hostile.' A spokesman for Iran downplayed the incident."
ABC World News added that "senior defense officials say the Americans were within seconds of firing when the Iranians suddenly pulled back." Similarly, the CBS Evening News reported, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, commander of US 5th Fleet, warned that "when they [Iranian vessels] act that way, it raises the possibility of a miscalculation on their part that somebody might take it just too far." The Bush Administration, the Washington Post reports, "called the episode a serious provocation and warned Iran about the dangers of such actions."
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The Washington Post reports that to "champion the law enacted six years ago," President Bush spoke in Chicago "at Horace Greeley Elementary, a school with a high percentage of Latino students, where reading and math test scores have jumped in recent years. Flanked by students in the school's small library, Bush said the law's requirement for measurable academic gains has led to improvement in schools nationwide."
The AP reports President Bush "said Monday that if Congress doesn't reauthorize" the No Child Left Behind Act, "he'll make as many changes as he can on his own. Bush also said that if Congress does renew the law but weakens it in the process, he'd 'strongly oppose it and veto it.'"
The New York Times (1/8, Stolberg, 1.18M) reports President Bush and Democratic Rep. Rahm Emanuel, "once a top political adviser to President Bill Clinton, spent the day together Monday in Mr. Emanuel's district here." Emanuel "could not resist pointing out to reporters that 40 percent of the school's pupils were enrolled in the popular State Children's Health Insurance Program, known as S-chip, whose expansion was vetoed by the president."
The Washington Post says both of the winners of the Iowa caucuses "sneer at lobbyists whenever they get the chance. Democrat Barack Obama says he will severely restrict any former lobbyists in his White House, and Republican Mike Huckabee rejects an attack on his tax-cut proposal merely on the grounds that the criticism was devised by lobbyists." But lawmakers "have been jumping to K Street at a dizzying pace, sometimes even before their terms are up. The reason: No matter who wins in November, and regardless of the victor's view of 'special interests,' demand for lobbyists will be huge."
The Supreme Court yesterday heard oral arguments in the challenge to Kentucky's use of lethal injection as a method of execution. The AP reports the Court "appeared divided today over whether the drugs commonly injected to execute prisoners risk causing excruciating pain in violation of the Constitution." Justice Anthony Kennedy, "who often plays a decisive role on the closely divided court, gave little indication of his views."
The networks each covered the story last night, with CBS and NBC devoting full segments to the story. The CBS Evening News reported Justice Scalia "asked where in the Constitution does an inmate get the right to die pain free." In Kentucky, "the inmate who brought this case, Ralph Baze, had killed two police officers with an assault rifle. The families of those officers believe Baze should face the risk of pain." NBC Nightly News reported, "Lawyers for two Kentucky men sentenced to die today urged the Supreme Court to declare the system so cruel that it is unconstitutional. The justices seemed skeptical." They "seemed unwilling to strike down the system for lethal injection, in part because they were apparently unconvinced there is a better alternative." USA Today reports that by the "end of the session, several justices across the ideological spectrum suggested they were not ready to rule that the method used by Kentucky is unconstitutional."
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Jay Leno: "Hillary Clinton's campaign staff said...losing in Iowa was not a problem because getting beat will make us a better team. Certainly worked for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, didn't it?"
David Letterman: "It was so warm today, Al Gore got another Nobel Prize."
David Letterman: "Did you folks see the debates in New Hampshire over the weekend? ... They were so dull that today...New Hampshire changed its state slogan from 'Live Free or Die' to 'Please Shoot Me.'"
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