On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, a slew of polls show confirm both parties' races are too close to call. On the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama is winning in 8 of 10 surveys over Sen. Hillary Clinton. Similarly, Sen. John McCain holds a lead in 8 of the 10 surveys over Mitt Romney, who is leading in the other two. John Edwards continues to draw about one-fifth of Democratic support, while among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee are clustered together at around 10 percent each. The New Hampshire Union Leader says the poll are "yo-yoing" as Tuesday's vote nears, offering the "chance of a photo finish" on both sides. USA Today says the "phenomenal rise" of Obama and the resurgence of McCain have made the contests too close for comfort for former frontrunners Clinton and Romney. The AP says the "wide open and intense" Republican race "has gotten ever tighter." The New York Post, in a story covering the latest polls that show Obama apparently moving into the lead in New Hampshire, reports, "No matter which poll, the news is not good for Clinton, the once-strong front-runner who now is looking for a New Hampshire win to help stem her campaign's slide since a disappointing third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses."
An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 39%, Clinton 28%, John Edwards 22%, Gov. Bill Richardson 4%, Mike Gravel 2%, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich 2%. Among 600 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 35%, Romney 27%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Rudy Giuliani 10%, Rep. Ron Paul 7%, Rep. Duncan Hunter 2%, Fred Thompson 2%, and Alan Keyes 1%.
A CNN /WMUR poll of 268 likely Democratic voters conducted January 5-6 has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 16%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 341 likely Republican voters, McCain leads with 32%, followed by Romney, 26%; Huckabee, 14%; Giuliani, 11%; and Paul, 10%.
A McClatchy /MSNBC poll of 400 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-4 has Obama at 33%, followed by Clinton, 31%; Edwards, 17%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 400 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 32%, followed by Romney, 24%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 9%; and Paul, 8%.
A Rasmussen automated poll of 1,240 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-5 has Obama at 39%, followed by Clinton, 27%; Edwards, 18%; and Richardson, 8%. Among 1,102 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 32%, Romney, 30%; Huckabee, 11%; Paul, 11%; and Giuliani, 9%.
A Suffolk University /7News poll of 500 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-5 has Clinton at 35%; Obama, 33%; Edwards, 14%; and Richardson, 5%. Among 500 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 30%, followed by McCain, 27%; Giuliani, 10%; Paul, 9%; and Huckabee, 7%.
A USA Today/Gallup poll of 778 likely Democratic voters conducted January 4-6 has Obama at 41%, followed by Clinton, 28%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 6%. Among 776 likely Republican voters, McCain is at 34%; Romney, 30%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 8%.
A Zogby poll of 844 likely Democratic voters conducted January 2-6 has Clinton at 31%, followed by Obama, 30%; Edwards, 20%; and Richardson, 7%. Among 836 likely Republican voters, Romney is at 32%, McCain, 31%; Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 7%; and Paul, 6%.
A Franklin Pierce University /WBZ-TV poll of 403 likely Democratic primary voters shows Obama leading with 34%, followed by Clinton with 31% and Edwards with 20%. On the GOP side, the survey of 409 likely GOP primary voters shows McCain leading with 38%, followed by Romney, 29%; Huckabee, 9%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 7%. The poll was conducted from January 4-6.
A Strategic Vision poll shows Obama leading with 38%, followed by Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 19%; and Richardson, 7%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney, 27%; Huckabee, 13%; Giuliani, 8%; and Paul, 7%. The poll surveyed 600 likely Democratic primary goers and 600 likely GOP primary goers from January 4-6.
A Concord Monitor /Research 2000 poll shows Obama leading with 34%, followed by Clinton with 33% and Edwards with 23%. On the GOP side, McCain leads with 35%, followed by Romney with 29%. The poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary goers and 400 likely GOP primary goers from January 4-5.
ABC World News reported last night, "There was a prediction today from the secretary of state in New Hampshire that they will have a record turnout, on Tuesday, 500,000 people. Who does that help?" ABC (Stephanopoulos) added, "I think that will help the candidates of change, the real candidates of change from Iowa. Both Barack Obama and, I think, Mike Huckabee will also be helped by that, and John McCain, who has now fashioned himself as a candidate of change." ABC World News later said that "150,000 independents are expected to cast ballots. In the past, independents have made a huge difference in New Hampshire."
On NBC Nightly News, Tim Russert said, "If young people, independents, show up, Obama wins; if they don't, Clinton has a solid chance. If independents don't vote for John McCain, Mitt Romney has a chance. If they show up, John McCain will win here big."
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A major theme in the print media this morning is the efforts by both Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney to rally from their Iowa finishes in New Hampshire, with three major papers this morning portraying their situations as two sides of the same coin. The Washington Post reports on its front page that "contenders in both parties blanketed the state with campaign events" Sunday, with Romney "seeking to remind voters about" John McCain's "unpopular stand on immigration legislation. Despite being outwardly optimistic, Romney advisers are well aware that a loss...would unravel their carefully plotted route to the nomination." Meanwhile, Clinton "ordered her advisers Sunday to reorient their message to more aggressively focus on the idea that Obama is all talk and no action." The Post adds, "'This election is about the difference between talk and action, between rhetoric and reality,' Clinton said at a crowded rally near the coast Sunday night in what advisers said was a new approach that she scripted herself. 'If we're going to be talking about change, then let's talk about change. Let's talk about who's produced change, and let's talk about who's more likely to bring about change.'"
On its front page, the Wall Street Journal reports both Clinton and Romney "unveiled new speeches, new music, and even new clothes. ... After rarely taking questions in the final days of her Iowa campaign, Mrs. Clinton opened the floor to two hours of queries in place of her prepared stump speech over the weekend." Romney, "who for weeks appeared against the backdrop of a lone American flag, was suddenly flanked by a massive 'to do' list of campaign promises and an illuminated sign declaring, 'Washington is Broken.'" Under the headline "New Underdogs Fight Back," the Chicago Tribune says both Clinton and Romney "urged New Hampshire crowds on Sunday to vote with their heads, not their hearts."
ABC World News reported that while Sen. John McCain "is leading the pack in New Hampshire," his rivals "are mostly gunning for Mitt Romney. They apparently want to deal him a crippling blow in New Hampshire. And today, Romney was trying to prevent that." The Concord Monitor reports five Republicans -- Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Fred Thompson -- debated once again Sunday night, and "while Romney and Huckabee sparred," McCain "largely escaped the fray. At one point, when each candidate was asked about his tax-cutting record, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, quizzed Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, on how much taxes had increased on his watch 'net-net.' Huckabee retorted by asking about fees in Massachusetts. 'You know, Mike, you make up facts faster than you talk, and that's saying something,' Romney said, one of the sharpest comments he's made in a debate so far."
The New Hampshire Union Leader reported on its website that Romney pressed Huckabee "to admit that as Arkansas governor, he raised taxes, net, by $500 million. Huckabee initially avoided a direct answer to Romney's tax question, prompting Romney to say, 'That's political speak. Let me ask you the question you haven't answered.' Huckabee admitted that he did oversee a net increase in taxes, but partially blamed it on a court order mandating funds for education, a familiar problem in New Hampshire. 'Maybe you don't obey court orders in Massachusetts.' Huckabee said. 'I did in Arkansas.'"
Romney Tries To Keep Focus On McCain NBC Nightly News reported Romney "has slipped into second place" and "may be feeling like he has a target painted on his back.." NBC (Allen) added, "Mike Huckabee's advisers set the tone here when he said he wants to take Mitt Romney out ... Romney kept up his not so subtle jabs at his main rival here, John McCain and his 21 years in the US Senate." Romney: "Americans are not looking for Washington insiders, they are looking for change and change is what we are gonna give them." Allen: "That has become Romney's mantra as his career rebuilding struggling businesses makes him best suited to follow the gridlock in D.C." On Fox News Sunday, Mitt Romney said of McCain, "He's just been there 27 years and hasn't been able to get the job done. ... He talks about changing Washington. But he's been there so long, he's got so many lobbyists at each elbow. ... In many cases, he's a maverick against his own party."
Sen. Hillary Clinton has dramatically ramped up her efforts to attack Sen. Barack Obama, who has received some unlikely assistance. ABC World News reported last night, "Clinton is no longer leaving it to surrogates to attack Barack Obama on his record. Today, she did it herself." Clinton: "If you give a speech saying you're going to vote against the Patriot Act and you don't, that's not change." Snow: "It was, in a sense, a continuation of last night's debate when John Edwards took Obama's side." The AP adds that having "lost the luxury of being polite along with the Iowa caucuses," Clinton "came out swinging...with a vigor she hasn't shown before. ... She says she is the candidate who deserves the mantle of change, not this newcomer Obama."
NBC Nightly News reported Clinton yesterday "took on the risky task of going on the offensive," saying, "I want to make change but I've already made change. I will continue to make change. I'm not just running on a promise of change, I'm running on 35 years of change." Cowan: "That outburst was in response to John Edwards who surprised many when he actually came to Barack Obama's defense." Edwards: "I didn't hear these kind of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was ahead. Now that she is not, we hear them. And any time you speak out, any time you speak out for change, this is what happens." Cowan: "Edwards, who finished better than Hillary Clinton in Iowa, may see aligning himself with Obama a better shot at staying viable."
A separate AP story reports, "At a raucous rally in a high school gymnasium in Nashua, Clinton skewered Obama for several votes he has cast in the Senate, such as his vote in favor of the Patriot Act and for energy legislation she described as 'Dick Cheney's energy bill.' She never mentioned Obama's name but left no doubt about whom she was discussing." McClatchy reports Clinton "retooled her campaign" with "a sharp attack" on Obama. The New York Times says Clinton "sought to slow" Obama's momentum "by pointedly challenging his voting record and the assertion that he is the only candidate who would bring about change." The Washington Times reports Clinton "said New Hampshire voters tomorrow must ensure 'we nominate and elect a doer, not a talker.'"
ABC World News reported Saturday night, "With so much attention on New Hampshire, for a brief moment Wyoming shared some political spotlight today. The Wyoming Republicans held a caucus and of all of the candidates, Mitt Romney did pay the most attention to it and he won most of the delegates at stake." The AP reports Romney won eight delegates, Thompson three, and Rep. Duncan Hunter one. Romney said, "The people of Wyoming took the first step towards bringing true conservative change to Washington."
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The AP reports that as President Bush heads to Israel and the West Bank this week "hoping his first visit as US leader will open the throttle on Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking," he faces "two perennial obstacles to Mideast peacemaking" that "have already reared up: Israeli settlements and violence." In advance of Bush's trip, "What have been making headlines are the deadly clashes and tussles over Israeli construction in disputed territory."
On its front page, the Washington Times features a pessimistic outlook on Bush's trip, saying he "will cover thousands of miles but find it hard to break any new ground." The Financial Times reports, "US officials say the President will devote the week-long tour...to pushing for Middle East peace, rallying his regional allies against Iran and reviving Washington's stalled democratisation agenda."
The Washington Post reports Bush intends the visit "to rally support for international pressure against Iran, even as a recent US intelligence report playing down Tehran's nuclear ambitions has left Israeli and Arab leaders rethinking their own approach toward Iran and questioning Washington's resolve." The "challenge" for Bush, according to analysts in Washington and the Middle East, "is to convince Arab countries that their best hope for minimizing the Iranian threat is to stick with the United States -- while dissuading Israel from a unilateral, preemptive strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities."
Meanwhile, the AP reports Iran's Foreign Ministry said Sunday that it "has no immediate plans to normalize relations" with Washington. "Given continuation of hostile policies of the United States against Iran, we have no plans for normalization of relations with America. This issue is not in our agenda," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told reporters.
Israel Continues Gaza Offensive The Washington Post reports, "Israeli forces have intensified operations in Gaza in preparation for President Bush's arrival in Israel this week. Meanwhile, Palestinian fighters have relentlessly fired Qassam rockets from Gaza."
The New York Times reports Israeli security officials "said Sunday that a rocket with a longer range than usual fired by Palestinian militants from Gaza into the coastal city of Ashkelon on Thursday had been made in Iran."
"American Al Qaeda" Urges Attacks On Bush NBC Nightly News reported, "A new video from 'American al Qaeda' Adam Gadahn urges militants to rig President Bush with bombs during his Middle East visit this week. In a dramatic gesture, Gadahn tore up his passport to protest the imprisonment of al Qaeda followers." Similarly, ABC World News reported that al Qaeda's "American mouthpiece is threatening the life of President Bush" by calling on "al Qaeda fighters to attack the President with bombs and booby-trapped vehicles." The AP reports that "in the rest of the tape," Gadahn, said al Qaeda "felt the need to release the statement after Washington's 'defeat' in Iraq and Afghanistan and failed attempts by the Bush administration to bring peace to the Middle East."
U.S. News and World Report reports President Bush "had intended to spend much of 2008 focusing on foreign affairs, and that's just how things are turning out -- though not entirely by choice. The assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto last month made international issues even more salient, upping the ante for Bush's upcoming trip to the Mideast."
In a separate story, U.S. News and World Report says the assassination of Bhutto "has ratcheted concerns in Washington higher than ever. ... The Bush administration, one of Musharraf's staunchest supporters, is confronting another uncomfortable reality: It is being increasingly reduced to the role of spectator as this troubled, nuclear-armed nation struggles over a future where the promise of democracy seems further and further away."
The Wall Street Journal reports amid "concern about the economy, House and Senate Democrats are preparing legislation to increase growth this year, putting pressure on the White House as it mulls a plan of its own." In advance of "the president's Jan. 28 State of the Union address, there will be a steady drumbeat of speeches and comments by administration officials, lawmakers and top economists, parsing the economy's every up and down. Today, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are expected in separate speeches to express the administration's basic optimism about the economy and its ambivalence about a big stimulus package."
But the Christian Science Monitor reports economic troubles "are spreading beyond the US housing market, putting pressure on President Bush and other policymakers to try to prevent a recession." What they "do or don't do could have far-reaching implications: from the performance of the economy itself to GOP election prospects to Mr. Bush's own economic legacy." But it is "hard for policy to exert a rapid influence on the overall economy. Second, the president has less room to maneuver than in 2001, when he faced a similar slowdown."
Roll Call reports lobbyists "expect 2008 to be a year of volatile partisan bickering from the campaign trail to the floor of the House and Senate, likely resulting in only a short list of legislative accomplishments that actually cross the finish line." Don't "expect comprehensive immigration or health care reform to pass; instead, lobbyists say they are urging Members to split off little pieces like increased visas for certain workers or a law mandating doctors to electronically prescribe medicines to their Medicare patients." Measures that could pass include "patent reform legislation" and the research and development tax credit, but "trade agreements and the reauthorization of No Child Left Behind would be much heavier lifts."
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Jay Leno: "Congratulations to Barack Obama, the big winner of the Democratic caucus in Iowa. ... He got 57% of the youth vote, 35% of the female vote, and 100% of Iowa's black vote, a guy named Larry."
Jay Leno: "And congratulations to Mike Huckabee. He was a big winner on the Republican side. ... Isn't it amazing, the impact of just one appearance on 'The Tonight Show'? ... And Hillary Clinton came in third," so "apparently, she picked the wrong late-night talk show to do the other night."
Jay Leno: "Hillary Clinton soundly beaten by both Barack Obama and John Edwards, or, as she's now calling it, 'a vast left wing conspiracy.'"
Jay Leno: "Chris Dodd dropped out of the presidential race after Iowa." Dodd "got 0% of the vote. In fact, did you know the Secret Service turned down Sen. Dodd for secret service protection? On the grounds that nobody could have picked him out of a crowd anyway."
Jay Leno: "A new Japanese government report says that Japan could have nuclear weapons within three to five years. And the report also says that the Japanese nuclear weapons would be similar to American nuclear weapons, but smaller, and more fuel efficient."
Craig Ferguson: "Now that the Iowa caucus over, Bill Clinton is hitting the campaign trail for his wife. He said, 'There's two things I want to say about Hillary. First, I'd still vote for her even if we never married. And -- sorry, I forgot the second thing. I'm thinking about if we never married.'"
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