Republican Mike Huckabee and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses Thursday, each by a comfortable margin, while John Edwards eked out a second-place finish over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race. Mitt Romney ran second among Republicans, and Fred Thompson was a distant third. Sen. John McCain was less than 300 votes behind Thompson for fourth place. The results are widely portrayed as a huge boost for Obama heading into the New Hampshire primary, and a severe blow to both Clinton and Romney. There is less consensus about whether Huckabee can parlay his victory into a strong showing in the leadoff primary state, which votes in just four days. Edwards is largely overlooked in newspapers' main stories, and his own prospects are cast as unclear where he is mentioned.
On the Democratic side, Obama won 38% of the vote, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, Gov. Bill Richardson 2%, Sen. Joe Biden 1%. Three votes were uncommitted and Sen. Dodd received one vote. Mike Gravel and Rep. Dennis Kucinich won no delegates. Among Republicans, with 95% reporting, Huckabee had 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13%, McCain 13%, Rep. Ron Paul 10%, Rudy Giuliani 4%, and Rep. Duncan Hunter 1%.
The AP says Obama "swept to victory" and pushed Clinton "to third place" as he took a "major stride in a historic bid to become the nation's first black president." Meanwhile, Huckabee "rode a wave of support from evangelical Christians to win the opening round among Republicans." The AP says Huckabee, "a preacher turned politician, handily defeated Romney despite being outspent by millions of dollars."
The Los Angeles Times says the results had the effect of "shredding any sense of inevitability surrounding the 2008 presidential race" by offering "a setback" to Clinton, "trailing in third place," and Romney, each of whom "had hoped to quickly wrap up their respective nominations with a string of victories beginning with Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. But the outcome dispelled any notion that the campaign would settle into predictability soon." USA Today says both winners received "major boosts" going forward.
The New York Times says Obama was "lifted by a record turnout of voters who embraced his promise of change." The Times calls his win "a startling setback" for Clinton that "left uncertain the prospects for John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, who had staked his second bid for the White House on winning Iowa." The Times again uses the word "setback" in describing Romney's situation, saying he was defeated by a candidate "who was barely a blip on the national scene just two months ago." The Times says Obama's "victory in this overwhelmingly white state stood as a powerful answer to the question of whether America was prepared to vote for a black person for president. Surveys of voters entering the caucuses also indicated that he had won the support of many independents, a development that his aides used to rebut suggestions from rivals that he could not win a general election."
The Wall Street Journal says Iowans "roiled the presidential race in both parties right out of the gate," saying Obama "handily beat the Clinton machine" while Republicans gave an "underdog conservative" a "decisive win." The Journal calls the results "dramatic evidence, especially for Democrats, of voters' hunger for a change in the nation's governance." On the GOP side, the Journal says Huckabee's win "represents a challenge to his historically pro-business party." The Chicago Tribune writes, "In the end, Iowans voted for a smile. They chose conciliation over combat, personality over pedigree, hope over fear. They voted for the new, with fervor. Whether that sets a tone for the campaign to come is far from certain."
ABC's Nightline reported, "For Obama, this is a huge boost for his candidacy and a big leap for a candidate who has the best chance in history becoming the first African-American President of the United States. Now, 300,000 people came out to caucus here this year. That's more than ever before in Iowa. You have to say that the results here are a blow to Hillary Clinton, once the prohibitive front-runner; who finished in a virtual tie with John Edwards."
CNN reported, "This is an extraordinary victory for Barack Obama. He's won in Des Moines, he's won in Cedar Rapids. He's won out here in western Iowa which is one of the most extraordinary things of all because this is the part of Iowa that's represented by Steve King, perhaps the most conservative congressman in the United States."
Caucus Turnout Huge The Des Moines Register (1/4, Simons, 158K) reports Iowa Democratic Party officials "reported 218,000 caucus attendees, compared to 124,000 in 2004. Iowa Republican Party officials reported projections of about 114,000 people taking part, shattering the numbers of 2000 Republican caucuses won by George W. Bush that drew 87,666. Huge numbers resulted in more than one potential supporter abandoning the caucus because of the inconvenience." The Washington Post (1/4, A1, Milbank, 723K) has a front-page profile of the voting in Des Moines' 70th precinct, "believed to be the largest in Iowa," where "600 people packed into a gymnasium" to cast their ballots.
The Boston Globe (1/4, Issenberg, 404K) reports that Obama and Huckabee "upended political wisdom about the Iowa caucuses by targeting and winning the votes of first-time caucus-goers." Obama "relied on young voters among the record number Democrats who participated in the caucuses -- many of them self-described independents. By contrast, Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and ordained Baptist minister, found his support among evangelical Christian voters who hold some of his party's more conservative views."
USA Today reports the Iowa results "set up titanic battles in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. At issue will be whether" Barack Obama "can more clearly establish himself as the front-runner by repeating his victory in Iowa." Former New Hampshire Democratic chairman Joe Keefe "called Obama's victory 'earth-shattering' and predicted he would benefit from the sort of boost that helped John Kerry in 2004 to victory in New Hampshire."
The New York Times reports that Clinton "has long looked at New Hampshire as a bulwark against" Obama, "who in turn has seen the numbers of independent voters here as prime targets for a campaign built largely on inspirational themes." Edwards, "perhaps more than other Democratic contenders, is hoping to gain momentum from Iowa to put him in contention with his rivals, who have been polling well ahead of him here. All the Democrats, however, have been largely absent from the state for the last month. With only a few days until the voting here, their absence could make the results in Iowa that much more important."
USA Today reports, "Both Democrats and Republicans will participate in back-to-back debates on Saturday. Sponsored by ABC and Manchester TV station WMUR, the debates are the first to be carried on a broadcast network. Republicans also will debate Sunday on Fox News Channel. Candidates will try to hammer home their main themes while campaign workers focus on getting out the vote. 'We plan to contact voters - undecideds, in particular, and our supporters - multiple times before Election Day,' says Ben LaBolt of the Obama campaign, which says it has signed up 700 ward and town captains and issued 10,000 yard signs. Clinton will campaign with her husband, former president Bill Clinton, and Robert F. Kennedy."
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The Iowa outcome has the media beginning to question Hillary Clinton's long-term viability. The Washington Post reports in a front-page story that for Clinton, "the presumed front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Iowa was always a risk. Now, after a decisive loss in the first contest of 2008, she and her team must decide how to retool a campaign built on experience to appeal to an electorate looking for change."
Under the headline, "Obama Victory Leaves Clinton Scrambling," The Politico reports Obama "heads out of Iowa as the biggest news story in the world and a force that strategists for" Clinton "are uncertain how to stop. With the New Hampshire primary just four days away, Clinton and her team now must convince voters that choosing Obama would be risky for the party and the country - but they must do it in a way that doesn't make her look small or desperate. 'Everyone underestimated this conflagration,' said a former Clinton administration official."
In an analysis piece in USA Today, Susan Page writes under the headline "Result Makes Clinton's Road Tougher," that Clinton "needs to repeat in New Hampshire the sort of 'comeback kid' performance that rescued her husband's presidential ambitions after devastating political setbacks in 1992 - but she has less time to do it." Page adds, "Political momentum is a powerful force, and Obama's show of electoral muscle could yield benefits not only in New Hampshire but also in the South Carolina primary in three weeks."
McClatchy reports, "Political pros and pundits considered the New York senator inevitable just a few weeks ago, with endorsements galore and the well-tuned Clinton machine humming along. But her third-place finish in Thursday's Iowa caucuses made it clear that Clinton was on the wrong side of a steamroller; that something more than a mundane, poll-tested, establishment-approved campaign was moving the voters of Iowa."
However, not all coverage for Clinton was heavily negative. Fox's Special Report with Brit Hume reported, "Looking beyond Iowa, polls indicate things are going well for both John McCain and Hillary Clinton, in particular. The National Real Clear Politics Presidential polling average shows Clinton leading Barack Obama, 45.2 percent to 24, with John Edwards back at 13.8 ... In New Hampshire, Clinton is leading Obama 34 percent to Obama's 27 John Edwards has 18 and a half."
In a column in the New York Post, Kirsten Powers writes that Clinton's "campaign has a long-term strategy and won't be felled by a loss in Iowa, or even New Hampshire. For all the inevitability arguments, it's long been known that she faced major obstacles in Iowa, a state in which her husband never seriously competed." CBS News reports, "For Hillary Clinton, the party's former front-runner, Iowa delivered a crushing blow, but not a knock out."
The AP says Sen. Barack Obama's Iowa win "has put to rest the question of whether a black presidential candidate can win in white America. His victory in 95 percent white Iowa proved that he could appeal across racial lines and even draw women away from Hillary Rodham Clinton despite her push for them to make her the first female president. Next he'll try to build on his record in New Hampshire, which is 96 percent white." Analyst David Gergen said on CNN, "For Barack Obama, this is a personal triumph. For an African-American to go into a state that's 95 percent white and win against Mrs. Clinton is an absolutely remarkable victory."
In an article on the website of TIME, Joe Klein gushes about Obama's "gorgeous" victory speech, suggesting that his opening line, "They said this day would never come," could refer back to the early months of the campaign or as far as his childhood. But I suspect he was thinking bigger, back to Martin Luther King - and King's dream that someday his children would not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character. That day has now come, at the highest level of American politics. A black man with a dangerous-sounding foreign name trounced his opponents in the nearly all-white state of Iowa. And he did so because, after spending months getting to know him, the people of Iowa stopped seeing his color and began to admire his character."
The New York Times, in a posting on its "The Caucus" blog, reports Barack Obama "did better among women than Hillary Rodham Clinton did. Overall, Mr. Obama won 35 percent of women, while Mrs. Clinton won 30 percent and Mr. Edwards 23 percent. She did well only with women over 65. While older women tend to vote in higher numbers than younger women, that's still devastating news for her, since women were supposedly the backbone of her candidacy." On ABC's Nightline, analyst George Stephanopoulos said, "He beat Hillary Clinton among women. The way she was selling herself as an agent of change, she would be the first female President of the United States, yet, Barack Obama took women."
Sens. Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd will leave the campaign trail to return to Capitol Hill, while Gov. Bill Richardson is pressing ahead. The Des Moines Register says Dodd withdrew "after receiving dismal support" in Iowa. Meanwhile, in a speech to supporters, Biden "never once said he was dropping out, even declaring 'I ain't going away.' But his political director Danny O'Brien confirmed after Biden's speech that Biden was ending his run for the nomination."
The Delaware News Journal says Biden "had hoped for a surprise showing of fourth place or better in Iowa to bring him media attention that to date has been showered on front-runners." The Washington Post Style section runs an oddly timed profile of Biden on the trail.
The Hill says Richardson's campaign "announced that he had made it to the 'final four' going on to New Hampshire." The AP reports that even with a fourth-place finish in Iowa, Richardson "said he'll keep campaigning as the only candidate who will get the troops out of Iraq next year." Richardson told the Associated Press before boarding a plan for New Hampshire, "I just believe there is a lot of support for my position on the war, and I'm going to make this campaign a referendum on ending the war."
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The Washington Post reports on its front page that Mike Huckabee "rode a wave of evangelical fervor to victory" in a "stunning" Iowa win that "hardly seemed possible two months ago" after Huckabee spent "nine months at the bottom of the pack." The New York Times says the "former Baptist minister" rode a "crest of evangelical Christian support to victory." The AP writes that Huckabee "made his religious beliefs and his rock-solid opposition to abortion, gay marriage and gun control central parts of his campaign -- and it paid off. Romney, for his part, struggled to overcome skepticism about his Mormon faith and his shifts on positions on issues that cultural and religious conservatives hold dear."
The AP notes that 60% of GOP caucus-goers self-identified as "born-again or evangelical," and over half of that segment favored Huckabee. "Only one in five favored Romney, who has been viewed skeptically by some religious voters. Nearly four in 10 Republican caucus-goers said it matters a great deal to them that a candidate shares their religious beliefs. More than half of them favored Huckabee and barely one in 10 favored Romney."
In the Wall Street Journal, Gerald Seib writes, "So much for the idea that evangelical Christians are a dispirited and declining force in the Republican party. Last night they showed up in force -- in stunning force, actually." Commentator David Gergen said on CNN, "That surge of evangelicals really is a rejection of someone like Mitt Romney," who "was trying to be socially conservative and an economic conservative, as well as national security conservative."
The Wall Street Journal adds that "Huckabee's remarkable victory in Iowa was fueled by a powerful evangelical voter base attracted to his unwavering views on social issues and God-infused message from the stump. His strong sense of humor, master storytelling and populist promise to represent Main Street over Wall Street added to his appeal." The Journal points to Romney's "more liberal views on abortion and gay rights" and his Mormonism as off-putting to "some Christians."
The Boston Herald reports that Mitt Romney's "humiliating defeat to Baptist preacher-turned-hayseed politician Mike Huckabee," came despite Romney spending "tens of millions of dollars" more than did Huckabee, and cites AP polling that indicated "religion may have played a role in the Evangelical Huckabee's win and the Mormon Romney's loss." The Herald continues to suggest that Romney will now face "a daunting challenge from Sen. John McCain" in New Hampshire.
The New York Times adds that Romney's loss will "energize and inspire Republicans backing" McCain "in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. The plan for Mr. Romney to secure the Republican nomination called for him to look formidable and confident coming out of Iowa and heading to New Hampshire, where he had long been the frontrunner and almost native son."
USA Today reports that Huckabee's win makes him "a contender for the GOP presidential nomination," and that though Romney is "a favorite" in New Hampshire, "he faces a major challenge there from John McCain, the Arizona senator who has grabbed the lead in some recent Granite State polls."
In a second story, the New York Times reports that McCain has "gained ground" on Romney in New Hampshire, and noted the Arizona senator "did not compete seriously in Iowa, but the campaign was obviously thrilled to learn that Mr. Romney had been beaten in the caucuses by" Huckabee. While "not commenting on what that outcome meant for his chances, Mr. McCain noted that it proved that 'negative campaigning doesn't work.'" McCain "has been the greatest presence" in the Granite State, "often having the state to himself. Seizing on his clean sweep of endorsements from 26 newspapers in the area, he has been able to reinvigorate a campaign that six months ago was largely written off."
In the Chicago Sun-Times, Robert Novak writes that Huckabee's win was a "cause for cheers from the former Arkansas governor's longshot campaign. But the cheering from Sen. John McCain's camp was even louder. 'We're looking good in Iowa,' said one of McCain's senior aides. Not that the senator was bragging, finishing far behind Huckabee and Mitt Romney. McCain's delight was that Romney's expensive, long-pending plan to pin down the nomination, by sweeping both Iowa and then the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday, was in ruins. It could not be better for McCain, shown by the polls to be tied with Romney for the lead in New Hampshire. He has been surging, while Romney has been slipping."
New Hampshire A Must Win For His Campaign, Says McCain The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that McCain "says he must win New Hampshire and he's confident Republican primary voters will give him another stunning victory here come Tuesday." McCain "made his declaration in an exclusive interview last night with the New Hampshire Union Leader as he arrived in Manchester for the final campaign push."
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President Bush on Thursday said he is consulting his top economic advisers on how best to deal with the crucial issues facing the US consumer, such as high gasoline prices, mortgage foreclosures, and a potential recession. The President may use his State of the Union address on January 28 to roll out some of the proposals.
The Washington Post reports President Bush "said yesterday that he may use his upcoming State of the Union address to propose a stimulus package intended to promote growth and shore up weak parts of the economy." Bush said, "In terms of any stimulus package, we're considering all options, and I probably won't make up my mind as to whether or not I lay one out until the State of the Union."
The New York Times reports it is "the clearest indication yet of a growing concern inside the White House over rising oil prices, the subprime mortgage crisis and the possibility of recession." It is "a safe bet that tax cuts, long a centerpiece of the Bush domestic agenda, would be a feature of any administration initiative."
The AP reports that on Friday, Bush "will receive an update from a working group on financial markets, an interagency panel that meets regularly to discuss market conditions and regulatory policy." The Wall Street Journal reports Bush spokeswoman Dana Perino "said yesterday that Mr. Bush is monitoring economic trends and seeking input from his economic advisers on the pros and cons of such a package."
Roll Call reports the Justice Department "has ended its investigation into ties between jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff and former Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.), ending a multiyear inquiry that focused on allegations that Burns had done favors for the disgraced lobbyist on a variety of legislative issues." The investigation "also focused on former Burns aides Will Brooke and Leo Giacometto," and Brooke "apparently remains under investigation by federal authorities for his ties to Abramoff."
The Washington Post reports Burns, "who works for a lobbying firm, narrowly lost his seat in 2006 because of political fallout over his dealings with Abramoff." Burns was "a major beneficiary of campaign contributions from Abramoff's lobbying team and the casino-rich Indian tribes it represented, taking in more than $140,000, which he returned during the heat of his campaign."
The AP reports House Intelligence Committee member Rep. Jane Harman "warned in a 2003 letter that destroying videotapes of terrorist interrogations would put the CIA under a cloud of suspicion," according to a newly declassified copy of the letter. In the letter to then-CIA general counsel Scott Muller, Harman wrote, "Even if the videotape does not constitute an official record that must be preserved under the law, the videotape would be the best proof that the written record is accurate, if such record is called into question in the future."
The Wall Street Journal reports Harman said Congress "needs to know why key Committees may have been misled about" the tapes' "existence and not told they had been destroyed." The Washington Post reports "other officials have said Muller did not disagree with Harman and counseled colleagues not to destroy the tapes." The Washington Times also reports on the release of Harman's letters.
Meanwhile, the New York Times notes the Justice Department's investigation into the tapes' destruction "will be carried out largely by agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which has been sharply at odds with the CIA over the agency's interrogation practices. In some law enforcement circles the prospect of the FBI interviewing high-level CIA officials, under the plan announced on Wednesday, and rummaging around the files of the agency's secret interrogation programs represents a payback moment in the rich history of rivalry between the agencies."
Conyers Urges Special Counsel House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers writes in an op-ed for USA Today that "by assigning this investigation to a Justice Department employee, who works for the administration he is investigating," Attorney General Mukasey "seems only to be reinforcing the Bush administration's failed accountability record." Conyers said the US Attorney firings matter "has taught us that this administration cannot be trusted to keep politics out of prosecutions."
USA Today, however, editorializes, "Outside special counsels almost always sound appealing, but history shows they often leave a trail of regrets as their inquiries take on expensive, meandering lives of their own."
The AP reports President Bush's aides "all but ruled out a three-way meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders during his upcoming Mideast visit and dampened hopes that the president's high-profile travels would make tangible progress toward peace." The President's eight-day trip to the region "comes as Bush stages his most aggressive personal involvement to date in the tricky, violent and intractable Israeli-Palestinian dispute." Middle East experts said the trip "is an important signal of US involvement in the region, but probably won't produce concrete results."
A separate AP report notes that the Israeli army "stepped up a broad offensive in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, killing at least nine Palestinians with airstrikes and shelling attacks after militants fired a rocket that struck deep into Israel." The Washington Post reports Jamal al-Muhaisen, governor of Nablus, said Thursday that "with President Bush coming so soon, one would hope to see positive steps toward the Palestinian people, but instead we see the opposite."
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The AP reports Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf "vehemently denied Thursday that Pakistan's military and intelligence agencies were behind Benazir Bhutto's killing, and implied she was partly at fault." Musharraf did, however, concede that "there were shortcomings in Pakistan's investigation into the assassination, but rejected accusations of a lapse in security for the former prime minister."
The Wall Street Journal reports Musharraf noted that Bhutto "was warned repeatedly about the threat to her life, but that she ignored the warnings." Similarly, the Washington Post reports Musharraf instead "again pinned responsibility on Islamic extremists, citing Baitullah Mehsud and Maulana Fazlullah, two pro-Taliban commanders who have created armies of radical followers in the country's restive northwest."
The AP reports Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Thursday "urged Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki to work for a peaceful resolution to violence that has erupted after allegations of electoral fraud in Kibaki's re-election," the State Department said. AFP reports State Department spokesman Sean McCormack "did not say anything was wrong with" a unity government, "but indicated Washington did not want to 'be so prescriptive in public' because it was up to Kenyans to find a solution to their problems."
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Jay Leno: "Tonight was the big night in Iowa. It's easy to remember because this is the only big night in Iowa."
Jay Leno: "We don't know the results, so I'm just going by the polls in the paper this morning. But Fred Thompson: What happened to him? He's doing so badly, it's like he's back here on NBC."
Jay Leno: 2007 has "been declared one of the hottest years on record, to which Al Gore went, 'Yes! I mean, Ooh! That's awful.'"
David Letterman: "The Writers Guild strike does continue. ... Here's what the writers want. Tell me if you don't think this is fair. They want a share of internet revenues and four more years of President Bush."
David Letterman: "Saturday is the Wyoming caucus for those that find the pace of Iowa just too hectic."
Jimmy Kimmel: "The Iowa caucus went on today. ... Whoever wins gets to be president of Iowa, I guess. I don't know."
Jimmy Kimmel: "And Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, which really is amazing because...this is Iowa. There are more black people in the Beatles than in Iowa."
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