Clinton Up By Double-Digits Over Obama Mike Huckabee has been skyrocketing in the polls in several early states, and now it appears that his success is translating into national appeal. A pair of new national polls out this morning show him running neck-and-neck with Rudy Giuliani for the lead in the GOP primary. On the Democratic side, the polls diverge one shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 10 points, the other by 23 points.
The CNN/Opinion Research poll of 1002 adults, including 377 registered Republicans and 467 registered Democrats, conducted over December 6-9, shows 24% would vote for Giuliani; 22% would vote for Huckabee; 16% would vote for Mitt Romney; 13% would vote for John McCain; 10% would vote for Fred Thompson; 6% would vote for Ron Paul; 2% would vote for Duncan Hunter; and 1% would vote for Tom Tancredo. On the Democratic side, 40% would vote for Clinton; 30% would vote for Obama; 14% would vote for John Edwards; 4% would vote for Joseph Biden; 4% would vote for Bill Richardson; 2% would vote for Chris Dodd; and 2% would vote for Dennis Kucinich.
Meanwhile, the CBS Evening News reported, "A brand new CBS News/New York Times poll just being released at this hour shows a dramatic shift on the Republican side. Take a look. Nationwide, Rudy Giuliani still leads but by the slimmest of margins. One point. The story? Mike Huckabee's surge into second place. He's up 17 points since October."
The CBS/NYT poll of 1133 adults, including 1028 registered voters, conducted over December 5-9, shows Giuliani leading with 22%, followed by Huckabee, 21%; Romney, 16%; McCain, 7%; Thompson, 7%; Paul, 4%; Hunter, 3%; and Tancredo, 1%. Among Democrats, Clinton leads with 44%, followed by Obama, 21%; Edwards, 11%; Biden, 2%; Kucinich, 2%; Richardson, 2%; and Dodd, 1%.
Also on the CBS Evening News, Bob Schieffer said, "I guess I wouldn't rate it up there with an Old Testament miracle but it is a remarkable thing that happened. I think that Mike Huckabee is for real. I think one reason for it, Katie, is each of these frontrunners in the Republican Party, you have a large segment of the party that is against them. A lot of people don't like Rudy Giuliani for one reason. Others don't like Romney for another reason. While those two were sparring and fighting, Huckabee has sort of slipped in there. He makes a good interview. He makes a good appearance on the campaign trail. He seems very real, very authentic. It's very hard not to like him. You can't say that about some of the other Republicans." Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, Democrats are "saying that they think new ideas are just as important as experience. That has got to worry the Clinton people."
GOP Voters Not As Satisfied As Democrats With Primary Field The New York Times reports Republican voters "across the country appear uninspired by their field of presidential candidates, with a vast majority saying they have not made a final decision about whom to support, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll." By contrast, Democrats "see their candidates considerably more favorably than Republicans see theirs."
Russert Says Democratic Race Is Now A Toss-Up Between Obama, Clinton On NBC Nightly News, Washington bureau chief and moderator of Meet the Press, Tim Russert, said, "Get rid of those national polls. ... This is a toss up. It's too close to call. There is no longer a frontrunner. There is no longer someone who is going to be coronated or inevitable. It's between Clinton and Obama, and we don't know who is going to win."
Following the massive rallies held by Barack Obama and Oprah Winfrey over the weekend, political observers are still assessing their impact, with all three national news programs last night airing pieces on the subject. The consensus is that it was a great weekend for the Obama campaign, but traditionally, celebrity endorsements haven't always translated into votes. ABC World News (Wright) reported, "More than 65,000 people in three key states turned out to see Oprah Winfrey." But will "they all heed Oprah's call?" Richard Norton Smith, ABC News consultant: "History suggests the answer to that is 'no, it doesn't mean votes.' But sometimes you are in uncharted waters. Sometimes you make new history." Wright: "Historically, celebrity endorsements don't count for much."
The CBS Evening News reported, "Obama's campaign is hoping the big crowds will send a strong message across the country about his popularity and more important his electability. That remains a question mark."
NBC Nightly News reported, "Most admit they didn't come to listen to his politics. They came for Oprah's passion." NBC added, "The gravitational pull is hard to ignore. Here in New Hampshire she brought in the largest pre-primary crowd any candidate has ever had. That's at least is a picture of momentum that no campaign could ever buy." Jennifer Donahue, New Hampshire Institute of Politics: "Oh I think the game has been changed. The goal posts have moved, the playoffs are just starting and there are two people in the playoffs on the Democratic side."
Obama Works To Turn Oprah-Admirers Into Barack-Backers The AP reports, "Even before Oprah Winfrey had left the building during the weekend's big campaign rallies for Barack Obama, the candidate's team had begun an intensive follow-up effort - trying to turn tens of thousands of Oprah fans into Obama voters. Celebrity endorsements are typically used by campaigns to draw large crowds and drive media coverage, but the Obama campaign is taking Winfrey's support to another level by trying to reach everyone who came to see her within 48 hours and get them on board." The AP adds, "Each person gets a thank-you for attending, some discussion of how inspiring the event was and is asked whether he or she will commit to voting for Obama and come in and volunteer. Those who live in Iowa are asked to attend a house party Thursday night near their home, and the callers have the local party address ready for anyone who might be interested."
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The New York Times notes this morning that Hillary Clinton is doing little campaigning in Iowa this week, with just two appearances scheduled. Standing in for her though, is her husband Bill Clinton, who campaigned around the state yesterday. The Des Moines Register reports that Hillary Clinton "is a change agent who made major improvements in a long string of issues despite facing great political adversity, her husband and former president Bill Clinton said" yesterday during a speech at the University of Iowa. The former president "credited her with decades of improvements, during which most of the time she was not an elected official." The AP reports that Bill Clinton said "when they were starting out he was so struck by her intellect and ability he once suggested she should just dump him and jump into her own political career. That didn't happen, of course, and on Monday he gave an Iowa crowd his version of why it didn't. 'I thought it would be wrong for me to rob her of the chance to be what I thought she should be,' said Clinton. 'She laughed and said, "First I love you and, second, I'm not going to run for anything, I'm too hardheaded."'"
The AP reports that Hillary Clinton's campaign "is matching the Barack Obama camp by starting television ads" in Nevada this week. Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson "said Monday that the 60-second 'New Beginning' ad will run statewide starting Tuesday, stressing Clinton's accomplishments and experience. That's the same day for the start of Obama's shorter 'Take It Back' ad, announced Friday, describing him as a Washington outsider who wants ethics reform and opposes powerful lobbying interests." The ads are the first TV spots in Nevada this presidential cycle.
The CBS Evening News reported John Edwards "launched the Main Street Express for an eight-day bus tour of Iowa pledging to fight the special interests in Washington." Edwards: "It is time to take this democracy back." The Quad City Times adds Edwards "launched an eight-day bus tour of the state Monday, urging his supporters to take back the country. Outside a freshly painted campaign bus dubbed the 'Main Street Express,' Edwards introduced a new campaign stump speech and slogan as the campaign rolls into its final weeks. The bus tour is focused on Edwards' theme of ending the influence of special interests in Washington and giving the government back to the people. Edwards told a crowd in Des Moines every time people stand up for those in poverty, those without health care and for American workers, America is rising."
Edwards Vows To Stay Positive The Des Moines Register reports that on his new campaign bus yesterday, Edwards said "that he will stick with a 'positive, uplifting' tone in the final three weeks of the caucus campaign. Earlier in the campaign, Edwards jabbed Democratic rival Hillary Clinton at every turn. But he's toned down the rhetoric in recent weeks, and he said he will keep it that way from now on. 'My intention is between now and the caucuses to focus on why I want to be president, and the positive parts of that,' he told reporters riding his campaign bus through the snowy countryside."
CNN's The Situation Room reported, "CNN is told that the Romney campaign has decided to play heavily on the illegal immigration issue here in Iowa to try to stop Governor Huckabee's rise in the polls. Look for a very tough contrast ad from the Romney campaign to debut here in Iowa tomorrow."
The AP reports Romney will "begin running a TV ad against Iowa front-runner Mike Huckabee on illegal immigration starting Tuesday while weighing how much negative campaigning he can add to the methodical plan he's followed all year." The ad "says the former governors have a lot in common - but not on illegal immigration, an important issue in Iowa, which will lead off nomination voting with its caucuses on Jan. 3." The narrator says, "Mitt Romney stood up, and vetoed in-state tuition for illegal aliens, opposed driver's licenses for illegals. Mike Huckabee? Supported in-state tuition benefits for illegal immigrants. Huckabee even supported taxpayer-funded college scholarships for illegal aliens." The New York Times reports the ad is "escalating the warfare between the two Republican candidates as they scramble for support in the nation's first nominating state."
The AP reports that as governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee "had a hand in twice as many pardons and commutations as his three predecessors combined. The case he's asked about most concerns the parole of a castrated rapist who later killed a woman." Although the Huckabee "plays down any personal involvement" in the release of rapist-murderer Wayne DuMond, he "granted 1,033 pardons and commutations in his 10 1/2 years as governor of Arkansas. The acts of clemency benefited the stepson of a staff member, murderers who worked at the governor's mansion, a rock star and inmates who received good words from their pastors."
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A Democratic plan to pass stalled spending bills in an "omnibus" package before the Christmas recess, and combine them with the supplemental funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan requested by President Bush appeared to collapse yesterday. The Washington Times says the plan "unraveled...as the White House and congressional Republicans held firm on budget limits." Under the headline "House Democrats Pull Budget Offer," the Washington Post reports House Appropriations Committee Chairman David R. Obey "accused Republicans of bargaining in bad faith." Obey said he will now "push a huge spending bill that would hew to the president's spending limit by stripping it of all lawmakers' pet projects, as well as most of the Bush administration's top priorities. It would also contain no money for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq." The AP notes Obey took "the step after the White House and weekend news accounts suggested Democrats were willing to trade $50 billion-$70 billion in new Iraq war funds for just a few billion in domestic programs." He now "wants to break the perceived linkage, which had whipped up the liberal anti-war blogosphere."
The Los Angeles Times says "senior Democrats are facing a restive liberal base incensed by talk that a budget deal would provide more money for the war in Iraq without attaching any conditions aimed at forcing troop withdrawals." The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, reports the "proposal has suffered from a clumsy introduction by top Democrats leaders and hostile reception from the White House, which issued a veto threat Saturday even before reading the bill." The New York Times says House and Senate Democratic leaders "increasingly turned their attention to an alternative approach that would try to squeeze 11 spending bills under President Bush's limit by stripping them of billions of dollars in home-state projects...sought by members of both parties."
The Hill says as Democrats "push a spending bill that comes closer to Bush's request and provides short-term financing for the Iraq war, they expect that their approach will increasingly put Republicans in difficult positions -- especially those in tough re-election races who may need to trumpet pet projects and other priorities." Roll Call reports, "It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas, but Democrats are increasingly worried that they will be left with nothing but lumps of coal in their stockings."
White House Could Issue Layoff Notices To 100,000 Defense Employees The Hill (12/11, Soraghan) reports, "The Bush administration is threatening to issue layoff notices this week to about 100,000 civilian defense department employees if Congress will not provide money for the Iraq war." The move "raises the political stakes by repeating a threat to disrupt the financial security of thousands of workers just before Christmas." The Hill adds, "The financial brinksmanship comes as Congress prepares to release its omnibus spending bill, which Bush threatened to veto Saturday before its terms were known. It resembles a defense-focused version of the 1995 government shutdown, which left Washington with the lesson that Congress, not the president, bears the blame when government grinds to a halt."
The AP reports Marine Corps Maj. Gen. W.E. Gaskin, the US commander in western Iraq, "said Monday that progress against insurgents in his area is 'permanent' but that it will be another 19 months before Iraqi forces can operate there by themselves." Gen. Gaskin "told a Pentagon news conference that bombings, shootings and other attacks in Anbar province fell to 40 in the first week of this month, compared with the 460 incidents during the same week last year." USA Today, meanwhile, reports "attacks from armor-piercing roadside bombs that the US military has linked to Iran have fallen roughly by half since June to fewer than 40 last month, the U.S. military reports."
Iraq Successes Buoying Bush His job approval ratings are low and he is facing one new problem after another, from questions about the validity of US intelligence assessments of Iran's nuclear intentions to confrontations with Congress over many spending and taxes. But as 2007 draws to a close, aides tell the US News Political Bulletin that President Bush remains upbeat. One big reason, they explain, is because Bush thinks the military situation in Iraq has improved so much from a year ago. Violence is down, US troops are effectively taking control of trouble spots, and the American public is finally getting the message, according to the polls. Political reconciliation lags far behind, Bush acknowledges privately, but he is heartened by successes on the military side. A senior Bush adviser told the Political Bulletin, "The President always said what mattered most was progress on the ground in Iraq, and we've got that. This has gone a long way toward making the year a positive one."
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The AP reports White House lawyers have "advised President Bush's spokeswoman," press secretary Dana Perino, "not to answer specific questions about why the CIA destroyed tapes of terror suspects under interrogation, as Congress seeks answers about the matter." The advice comes as the Justice Department and the CIA's internal watchdog conduct a "joint inquiry into the spy agency's destruction of videotaped interrogations of two suspected terrorists."
The Los Angeles Times reports Perino "said White House counsel Fred Fielding ordered the news blackout" and that White House employees "also were directed by Fielding to preserve any documents or e-mails they had about the matter." The Washington Times /AP, meanwhile, reports that as part of the congressional investigation, CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden "will appear on Capitol Hill today to explain his agency's destruction of interrogation videotapes in a closed session before the Senate Intelligence Committee and Wednesday before the House Intelligence Committee."
Meanwhile, several media reports continued to flesh out the context of the decision to destroy the tapes. The CBS Evening News reported Jose Rodriguez, "then head of the clandestine service, ordered the tapes destroyed shortly after a 'Washington Post' expose focused attention on the CIA's secret prisons." In addition, retired CIA Officer John Brennan, now a consultant for CBS News, "says Rodriguez was also worried the Justice Department was backing away from its earlier support of harsh interrogation techniques such as water boarding."
The New York Times, meanwhile, reports on its front page that "lawyers within the clandestine branch of the Central Intelligence Agency gave written approval in advance to the destruction in 2005," according to a former senior intelligence official with direct knowledge of the episode. The involvement of agency lawyers "in the decision making would widen the scope of the inquiries into the matter that have now begun in Congress and within the Justice Department."
Under the headline "CIA Liability In Tape Destruction Is Unclear," the Los Angeles Times reports that with last week's admission about the tapes' destruction, the CIA "has raised questions about whether its penchant for secrecy has spilled over into illegal conduct, to the detriment of congressional investigators, private litigants and the Sept. 11 panel."
Former Agent Details Zubaydah Interrogation In its lead story, ABC World News reported last night that former CIA intelligence officer John Kiriakou has gone "public to describe what happened inside the CIA's secret prisons." The "CIA undercover officer for 15 years" has "come to believe what was done to captured al Qaeda leaders was necessary, but he also says, was torture." Kiriakou told ABC: "At the time I was so angry and I wanted so much to help disrupt future attacks on the United States that I felt it was the only thing we could do." Kiriakou, now retired, was a team leader for the CIA, FBI squad that went to Faisalabad, Pakistan, in March 2002 and captured the first major al Qaeda figure Abu Zubaydah." Kiriakou says Zubaydah "would not give up actionable intelligence and they got approval from CIA officials in Washington to waterboard him."
On its front page, the Washington Post also reports Kiriakou's account of Abu Zubaydah's interrogation. The Post goes on to note that "in documents prepared for a military hearing at Guantanamo Bay, where he is still held, Abu Zubaydah asserted that he was tortured by the CIA, and that he told his questioners whatever they wanted to hear to make the torture stop."
The Wall Street Journal reports former White House aide I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby is "no longer appealing his conviction in the CIA leak case, a tacit recognition that continuing his legal fight might only make things worse." The Washington Post reports that Libby's lawyer "touched on the legal Catch-22 that Libby has found himself in: President Bush commuted Libby's 30-month prison sentence this summer but left in place his conviction in the CIA leak case. That means that even if Libby were to have won his appeal, he might still face a new trial that could result in prison time." The New York Times, The Politico, and USA Today also report the story.
On MSNBC's Hardball, host Chris Matthews said, "Scooter won't testify. The Veep won't testify. They don't want to have a second trial. They don't want to talk about it. They want to commute the sentence and probably pardon the guy." Newsweek reporter Michael Isikoff added, "Look, from a purely practical standpoint, from Scooter Libby's vantage, look, he's been -- the sentence is commuted. He doesn't have to serve in prison. The appeal was for a new trial. Even if he were to win the appeal, as his lawyer, Ted Wells, pointed out today, all it -- it would just result in a new trial...that would drag on for another year." Isikoff added, "I think there's no question he wants a pardon. And his supporters want him pardoned."
The Washington Post reported a study by "the left-leaning Center for American Progress" says "political operatives in the Department of Labor are using federal reporting requirements to undermine trade unions and conduct a 'political misinformation campaign' against them." While the Bush Administration "has generally relaxed federal regulations, the department's Office of Labor-Management Standards has done the reverse, beefing up disclosure rules, staff and investigations of union leaders and members," according to the group. The Post adds, "The standards office has been led since 2005 by Don Todd, a former Republican National Committee strategist. Todd is credited with helping George H.W. Bush win the presidency in 1988 by convincing Lee Atwater to use a television ad featuring furloughed murderer Willie Horton and portraying Bush's Democratic challenger as soft on crime."
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports international labor leaders "are meeting in Washington as part of a global push to make it easier for unions to organize U.S. workers." But their efforts "face hurdles in the face of opposition from the White House and some lawmakers."
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The late night shows continue to be in reruns due to the ongoing writers' strike.
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