Three new polls out in the last several days show Barack Obama surging in Iowa, with two putting him in the lead and one showing him tied with Hillary Clinton. A Des Moines Register poll of 500 likely caucus-goes taken November 25-28 shows Obama at 28%, followed by Clinton, 25%; John Edwards, 23%; Bill Richardson, 9%; and Sen. Joseph Biden, 6%. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus-goers taken November 23-25 shows Obama leading with 27%, followed by Clinton 25%, and Edwards with 23%. In a similar ARG poll from mid-November, Clinton led Obama 27%-21%. Finally, a Strategic Vision poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus-goers taken November 23-25 shows Clinton and Obama tied at 29%, followed by Edwards at 23%.
Huckabee, Romney In Dog Fight In Iowa On the GOP side, the three polls show a tight race between a rising Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, who has led in most polling in the Hawkeye State for most of the race. The Des Moines Register poll of 500 likely GOP caucus-goers shows Huckabee on top with 29%, followed by Romney, 24%; Rudy Giuliani, 13%; Fred Thompson, 9%; John McCain, 7%; Ron Paul, 7%; and Tom Tancredo, 6%. In the ARG poll of 600 likely GOP caucus-goers, Romney leads Huckabee 28%-27%, with Thompson at 14%. Giuliani and McCain are tied at 9% each. In a mid-November survey, Romney led Huckabee 26%-24%. The Strategic Vision poll of 600 likely GOP caucus-goers shows Romney leading with 26%, followed by Huckabee, 24%; Giuliani, 14%; Thompson, 10%; and McCain, 7%.
The Des Moines Register poll is generating significant media attention this morning, with the Wall Street Journal, for example, reporting one month "before Iowa holds the first contest of the 2008 presidential campaign, a newly energized" Obama has "opened a narrow lead here, but many Iowans in both parties say they could change their minds in the next 30 days about which candidate to support." Obama's "gain in popularity began with a fiery speech three weeks ago in which the Illinois Democrat vowed to turn away from the partisan battles common in the past. That helped to galvanize his campaign."
The CBS Evening News reported, "The big surprise is on the Republican side, where Mike Huckabee is at the top of the heap, up 17 points since October." CBS (Chen) added Huckabee "was quick to seize on the Des Moines Register poll as new reason to keep the faith." Huckabee: "I'm not peaking at all. I'm still -- still gaining and growing. You peak when you stop. We haven't stopped yet." NBC Nightly News adds that Huckabee's "rise in the Iowa polls comes despite raising and spending relatively little money. Romney has outspent him by a 10-1 margin and outraised him by a 30-1 margin. In Iowa, nothing sells better than a handshake and a little face time." Stuart Rothenberg, Rothenberg Political Report: "It is not only the first test it is the first real test after months and months of talking."
Romney Tops GOP Field A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field in New Hampshire with 30%, followed by Barack Obama, 23%; John Edwards, 17%; and Bill Richardson, 12%. On the GOP side, Mitt Romney leads with 29%, followed by John McCain with 21% and Rudy Giuliani with 19%. Mike Huckabee places 4th with 7%, followed by Ron Paul and Fred Thompson tied at 4%. The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters and 500 likely GOP primary voters and was taken November 27-29
A second New Hampshire poll, this one from American Research Group, shows Clinton up by a wide margin, taking 34% to Obama's 23%, with Edwards at 17%. In a similar survey a month ago, Clinton led Obama 40%-22%, with Edwards at 10%. On the GOP side, Romney leads with 36%, followed by Giuliani, 22%; Huckabee, 13%; McCain, 11%; and Thompson with just 3%. ARG surveyed 600 likely primary voters from each party from November 26-29.
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With new polls showing her lead in Iowa fading, McClatchy reports Hillary Clinton "questioned the courage and character" of Barack Obama yesterday. With the Iowa caucuses "one month away, Clinton unleashed her harshest critique yet of Obama, saying he 'blinked' in offering a health care plan that didn't give all Americans coverage and is being disingenuous as he touts it. And Clinton questioned whether Obama's political action committee was violating Federal Election Commission rules." The Washington Post reports in a front page story that Clinton "mounted a new, more aggressive attack against" Obama "on Sunday, raising direct questions about his character, challenging his integrity and forecasting a sharp debate over those subjects in the days ahead." The Quad-City Times reported that Clinton suggested Obama "has character issues," and "took Obama to task over his health care plan and disputed his claim he doesn't take lobbyist money. When a reporter asked whether she is suggesting Obama has 'issues of character, the New York senator said, 'I'm going to let voters make that decision but it's beginning to look a lot like that. It really is.'"
Clinton appears to be relishing her new role. The Des Moines Register reported on its website that Clinton, speaking in Cedar Rapids, "ramped up criticism of" Obama, saying, "I have said for months that I would much rather be attacking Republicans and attacking the problems of our country, because ultimately, that's what I want to do as president, but I have been for months on the receiving act of consistent attacks. Now the fun part starts."
Barack Obama picked up key backing yesterday. The AP reports Obama "was endorsed Sunday by the mayor of Iowa's largest city and predicted more criticism ahead from presidential rivals as his political fortunes keep brightening." Meeting with reporters, Obama "trotted out Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, who last month won a second term. He has focused on global warming and other environmental issues."
The AP reports that Rep. Ron Paul "said Sunday his upstart presidential campaign is on track to raise more than $12 million this quarter, boldly predicting the Iowa polls 'are going to continue to shift' once he's finished spending it all. Speaking on CNN's 'Late Edition,' Paul said he had raised roughly $10.4 million so far in the quarter beginning Oct. 1, an amount that is already double the $5.2 million he pulled in during the third quarter. A big online fundraising effort planned for Dec. 16 could push the fourth quarter's total higher by several million, he said." Paul said his campaign could bring in "maybe $14 million or $15 million. It just is astounding."
Under the front-page headline "John McCain Is The Man To Lead America," the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state's premiere paper for politics, endorses McCain in a glowing editorial. The Union Leader writes, "We don't agree with him on every issue. ... What is most compelling about McCain, however, is that his record, his character, and his courage show him to be the most trustworthy, competent, and conservative of all those seeking the nomination. Simply put, McCain can be trusted to make informed decisions based on the best interests of his country, come hell or high water."
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There was some drama for Clinton campaign staffers in New Hampshire on Friday. A six-hour hostage standoff at a Clinton campaign office in Rochester, New Hampshire, Friday drowned out most other political news and led all three broadcast network newscasts. The Concord Monitor says a "man wearing what appeared to be a bomb took five people hostage" at the office, demanding to speak to Clinton before he "surrendered peacefully." Leeland Eisenberg "emerged from the office on Main Street about 6:15 p.m., after releasing the last of the hostages. ... After investigating the bomb-like device, authorities said it was made up of road flares."
In a follow up story last night, ABC World News reported on Clinton's response to the mini-crisis, saying moments after hearing the news, Clinton "was on the phone with the Governor, the first of eight calls," who says she "offered to do everything possible, including coming up right away." Mark Halperin, ABC News political analyst: "It's rare in the context of a presidential campaign, to get a chance to show yourself in a moment of crisis, right before voters' eyes, right before making decisions about who to vote for. Hillary Clinton got that opportunity. And she made the best of it."
NBC Nightly News reported, "Michigan is the latest state to see its plans for an early primary backfire. Democratic leaders today stripped Michigan of all its 156 delegates to the national convention next summer. That's after Michigan moved its primary up to January 15 in violation of party rules." The AP says Michigan officials "anticipated the action by the Democratic National Committee's rules panel. But Michigan Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer said before the vote that he didn't think the delegates would be lost for good. He expects the nominee will insist the state's delegates be seated at the convention."
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Members of Congress are back in Washington this morning, and media analysts are predicting a resumption of their showdown with the White House on a variety of fronts. USA Today reports "many of the year's most contentious issues [are] waiting to be resolved, including funding the Iraq war and children's health care," adding "most of the remaining issues Congress has on its plate have been the subject of vetoes or warnings from the White House." Likewise, the Wall Street Journal says there is "a sense that lawmakers are back to where they started after the 2006 election: divided by Iraq but chasing the dream of a political center from which to govern."
On its website, The Hill adds, "With less than four weeks until Christmas, Congress will attempt to clear all 11 remaining appropriations bills, a patch of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), a bicameral energy bill, the stalled farm bill, a bill to overhaul the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and a free trade agreement with Peru." Meanwhile, "Bush's $196 billion wartime supplemental spending package remains stalled, and both sides are trying to pin the blame on the other for holding up dollars for military operations in Iraq." The Washington Post says Bush "is...showing no sign of compromise on his key demands." They include "a 'clean' war funding bill (without timetables or restrictions on the troops), a wiretapping bill that exempts telecommunications companies from lawsuits, and no more than $933 billion in domestic spending ($11 billion less than what Democrats now want)." The Post adds "most observers believe Bush will eventually get what he wants on the war funding and wiretapping bills -- the only question is when." The Post also reports that "one administration official recalled a favorite aphorism of former House majority leader Richard Armey (R-Tex.) 'pain is inevitable, suffering is optional' -- in predicting that Democrats will have to fund the war on the president's terms, the sooner the better.
The Washington Times notes Democrats "want to pass legislation to stop the alternative minimum tax (AMT) from hitting 23 million middle-class families, but another veto awaits if Democrats stick to their plan to 'pay for' the fix with $81 billion in new taxes on Wall Street fund managers." The New York Times quotes Sen. Mitch McConnell as saying that Democrats "are...about to slap millions of Americans with a middle-class tax hike better known as the A.M.T."
According to Roll Call, Democrats hope that "the bipartisan desire to leave town for the holidays will help them unlock some of the remaining stalemates."
Democrats Threaten Contempt Citations Roll Call notes that in a statement to the magazine Mother Jones, Brendan Daly, a spokesman for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, "said House Democrats had the votes to move forward with a contempt citation against former White House counsel Harriet Miers and White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten for refusing to provide documents and testimony in the US attorneys probe."
Senate GOP Boosted By Dem No-Shows The Washington Post notes "four members of the slim Democratic Senate majority likely to miss votes as they campaign for president." While Senate Democrats "normally can count on a 51 to 49 majority" the loss of four Democrats -- Sens. Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, and Barack Obama -- and just one Republican, John McCain...means Republicans "can have an effective 48 to 47 majority." On Sunday the New York Times reported that filibusters "are being used more frequently, and on more issues, than at any other point in history. ... In this first year of the 110th Congress, there have been 72 motions to stop filibusters," while "there were 68 such motions in the full two years of the previous Congress."
Democrats Hosting Economic Forum On its website, The Hill reports House Democrats "will host an economic forum on Friday, signaling their intent to refocus the political debate on...Bush's handling of the economy and away from the situation in Iraq."
The AP reports that yesterday, Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte "pressed leaders of Iraq's factions to take advantage of security gains to pass legislation aimed at promoting reconciliation or risk a return to greater violence." Speaking in Baghdad, Negroponte said, "The security surge has delivered significant results. Now progress on political reconciliation including key national legislation...is needed." The Los Angeles Times also reports Negroponte "echoed military officials' concerns that unless Iraq's political leaders resolve disputes over legislation aimed at fostering national reconciliation, it will be impossible to consolidate security gains." In similar reporting, the New York Times quotes Negroponte as saying, "It's one thing to have brought the violence under some semblance of control, but it's another matter now to follow up with the necessary reconstruction and stabilization projects that will safeguard regions and protect them from this type of violence." The Wall Street Journal notes that at the end of a six-day visit, Negroponte, "said he was encouraged by advancements made in security. ... The influx of the surge forces has allowed US commanders to extend their reach to areas once under insurgent control."
Sunni Lawmakers Return To Parliament McClatchy reports Sunni MPs "agreed to return to the legislative assembly after a brief boycott ended Sunday night." The parliamentary boycott "pitted Sunnis against Shiites following what was called the house arrest of a leading Sunni politician." The Washington Post says "the end of the boycott defused the latest confrontation in an increasingly tense relationship between Iraq's Sunni and Shiite political parties."
According to Newsweek, when Defense Secretary Gates traveled to the Middle East this summer, "high-ranking Arab officials anxiously asked him: was the United States preparing to attack Iran?" Gates "reassured them all that the United States had no plans to do so, at least any time soon." Newsweek adds that at the end of September, Gates "met with the Democratic Senate Policy Committee. ... One of the senators nervously asked if the Bush administration was looking for a reason to bomb Tehran. 'It would be a strategic calamity to attack Iran at this time,' Gates replied."
Time reports on "the split that has opened up between Bush and his hard-line Veep." According to Time, "Since 2001, Cheney has been against just the kind of US involvement in Arab-Israeli affairs that Bush is embracing, arguing that the early creation of a Palestinian state could jeopardize Israel's security. And the peace talks are part of a larger trend. In the past two years, Bush has negotiated with the North Koreans over their nuclear weapons and offered the Iranians incentives to talk about their nuclear ambitions, sometimes directly overruling Cheney and his allies in the process."
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The late night shows continue to be in reruns due to the ongoing writers' strike.
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