Are the Democrats getting ready for a truly competitive presidential primary season? A new Iowa poll suggest that at the very least Sen. Hillary Clinton's opponents may have a chance to make it a serious race. As political analyst Dick Morris put it on Fox News' Hannity and Colmes, "I think this is the first time that they have shown a significant chance to defeat her." ABC World News reported that the new ABC New/Washington Post poll in Iowa shows Sen. Barack Obama leading with 30% support among likely Iowa voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 26%, and former senator John Edwards at 22%. ABC went on to report that their new poll "finds something of a shift in priorities for Iowa voters. 55% say they are more interested in a new direction and new ideas now. Just 33% care more about strength and experience. And there's more bad news for Hillary Clinton, only half of Iowa Democratic caucus goers say she's willing to say what she really thinks."
According to the Washington Post, Obama "is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters." In addition, Obama's "support is up 8 percentage points since July among voters aged 45 and older -- who comprised two-thirds of Iowa caucus-goers in 2004." The Politico notes that when asked which candidate is "the most honest and trustworthy, 31 percent of respondents said Obama; 21 percent said other, none or no opinion; 20 percent said Edwards; 15 percent said Clinton; and 13 percent said Richardson."
Novak Item Sparks Gossip MSNBC's Hardball reported Sen. Obama "is accusing Hillary Clinton of launching a smear campaign. On Saturday, columnist Robert Novak published an on-line column that said, 'Agents of Sen. Hillary Clinton are spreading the word in Democratic circles that she has scandalous information about her principal opponent for the party's presidential nomination, Senator Barack Obama, but has decided not to use it.'" Jim Warren of the Chicago Tribune, appearing on Hardball, said, "With all the investigating we've done into [Obama] here in Chicago, both The Tribune and The Sun-Times, what one has is really one very unsavory connection, one bad business deal involving his Southside mansion, and that involves his relationship to a guy who gave him a fair amount of money and was a patron of sort and who is now an indicted businessman named Tony Rezko." The Politico's Roger Simon noted that the column "might have been dismissed as just another Robert Novak item about Democrats, but Obama ratcheted it up instantly by denouncing it himself" instead of using a campaign aide to do so.
Novak, appearing on Fox News' Special Report, said, "My source is a big Democrat who is neutral right now, but was told by an agent of the Clinton campaign who was involved in the campaign about the alleged scandal." Political analyst Dick Morris, on Fox News' Hannity and Colmes, maintained that Novak is "almost never wrong. ... One of the good things about Novak is that...he breaks stuff that always turns out to be right. He is never proven wrong. He is always right."
The AP reports that a CNN/WMUR-TV telephone survey of 404 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters conducted Nov. 11-14 (+/- 5%) shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential field with 33%, followed by Sen. John McCain with 18%, Rudy Giuliani with 16%, Rep. Ron Paul with 8%, Mike Huckabee with 5% and Fred Thompson with 4%. The AP notes that Thompson's numbers "dropped from 13 percent in September to 4 percent." CNN reported on its website, "By contrast, Romney's support grew from 25 percent to 33 percent over the same period; McCain held steady at 18 percent; and Giuliani dipped from 24 to 16 percent. Meanwhile, the percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent."
Controversy Over Anti-Mormon Calls According to Fox News' Special Report, "A feeding frenzy is unfolding" in New Hampshire "to identify who is paying for...telemarketing surveys disguised as polls that raise loaded questions about the Book of Mormon versus the bible and about Romney's Vietnam draft deferment because he was doing Mormon missionary work." According to Fox, the calls "have not been caught on tape," but "people who have received them say they include favorable information about John McCain and that has cast suspicion on him. He adamantly denies involvement." Fox noted that "some suspect Romney's supporters." Though Romney "denounced the suggestion that his backer would do this to inoculate him against religious bigotry and thus make him seem like a victim."
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The State (SC) reports that an Ayers, McHenry & Associates survey of 300 South Carolina Republicans conducted Oct. 25-28 (+/- 5.7%) shows Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential field with 20%, followed by Rudy Giuliani with 19%, Sen. John McCain with 17% and Fred Thompson with 13%. The Ayers, McHenry & Associates survey of 300 South Carolina Democrats conducted Oct. 25-28 (+/- 5.7%) shows Sen. Hillary Clinton's "lead is 19 percentage points."
The CBS Evening News reported Sen. John McCain "picked up a key endorsement today. He, not Rudy Giuliani, got the backing of 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kaine. That commission, by the way, had raised questions about whether, as Mayor, Giuliani provided emergency responders with proper communications equipment." The AP reports Kean said the McCain's "blend of congressional, military and foreign affairs experience left him the best equipped of the GOP candidates to serve in the White House." According to the AP, McCain "reveled in the endorsement, noting Kean joins a group of supporters that also includes former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and four former secretaries of state." Fox News' Special Report noted that Sen. John McCain "will make his 7th visit to Iraq over the thanksgiving holiday." The AP reports Sen. Joe Lieberman "will join McCain on the trip."
The AP reports that former Virginia Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore announced he will seek the retiring Republican Sen. John Warner's seat. Gilmore's announcement "sets up a campaign with another former governor, Democrat Mark R. Warner." However, the Washington Post notes that GOP Del. Christopher B. Saxman of Staunton, "who is considered a rising star in his party -- said he is considering challenging Gilmore."
The AP reports Rep. Michael Ferguson, a New Jersey Republican, "announced Monday he will not seek re-election next year to a fifth term in Congress, saying he wants to spend more time with his young children. The 37-year-old former teacher is the 17th House Republican to announce he will give up his seat at the end of the 110th Congress in January 2009. According to the AP, "Possible GOP contenders for Ferguson's seat include state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., son of popular former Gov. Thomas Kean." The Hill notes Ferguson "was barely sent back to Congress in 2006, beating Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender by under a percentage point."
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On the heels of similar statements in a front-page Washington Post story yesterday, advisers tell the US News Political Bulletin that President Bush's spirits are getting a lift because of his new focus on unilateral actions to circumvent Congress. He is described by these advisers as delighted that he can move beyond butting heads with Democratic leaders and can get things done through executive orders and administrative actions.
"He is always 'up' but he's been in a very good mood lately," says a senior White House official. "He likes the feel of things right now." At a meeting last week to discuss his use of unilateral actions to get around Congress, he said happily, "This is the kind of thing we should be doing" -- a particular reference to his moves to reduce aviation congestion over Thanksgiving. He feels it's important to address such "kitchen table" issues that affect Americans in their daily lives, rather than get bogged down with endless battles with Congress, an aide said. More broadly, Bush is also encouraged by what he considers positive developments in Iraq, especially the recent reduction in the level of violence. And he thinks that Democrats are in such disarray on Capitol Hill, over Iraq policy and other issues, that they appear unable to govern effectively -- an impression that he thinks will turn voters against them in next year's elections.
More Good News Out Of Iraq Media reports continue to indicate the level of violence in Iraq is diminishing noticeably. Last night, Fox News' Special Report's Brit Hume reported last night that the Iraqi government "is saying its security statistics show that Baghdad is significantly calmer after more than a year of sectarian warfare. There were 323 violent attacks last month compared to 850 in February." Under the headline "Baghdad Starts To Exhale As Security Improves," the New York Times reports on its front page that "the security improvements in most neighborhoods are real. Days now pass without a car bomb, after a high of 44 in the city in February. The number of bodies appearing on Baghdad's streets has plummeted to about 5 a day, from as many as 35 eight months ago," and "suicide bombings across Iraq fell to 16 in October, half the number of last summer and down sharply from a recent peak of 59 in March, the American military says." And "as a result, for the first time in nearly two years, people are moving with freedom around much of this city." Iraqis, adds the Times, "are clearly surprised and relieved to see commerce and movement finally increase." In a related story titled "Glimpses Of Life In A City Yearning For Normalcy," the New York Times reports "marriages are back, in public and after dark," although Baghdad's "revival...has been incomplete," with some areas still considerably violent.
Along those lines, the Washington Post reports "large swaths of Baghdad remain no-go zones for most Iraqis, as they were before thousands of US reinforcements began arriving nine months ago in an effort to bring stability." But in many enclaves, "life is returning to a kind of normalcy." On its front page, the Los Angeles Times also notes the "major decline in violent attacks in Baghdad and the surrounding areas." A US Embassy spokesman "said the government must use the slowdown in bombings, mass abductions and major street fighting to focus on legislation aimed at national reconciliation, and getting basic services such as water and electricity to all Iraqis. 'This is absolutely the case,' said the spokesman, Phillip Reeker. 'This is an important moment in the history of the new Iraq and in Baghdad as well.'"
White House Homeland Security advisor Fran Townsend announced her resignation yesterday. NBC Nightly News, the only network to report the news, noted that Tonwsend will "leave her post in January" and will "be looking for a new job in the private sector." USA Today says Townsend "became the latest in a long line of top administration officials to leave the government for the private sector. Her departure, effective in January, follows those of Bush confidants Karl Rove, Alberto Gonzales, Dan Bartlett and others who left this year." Still, President Bush "has been able to attract new talent despite having only 14 months left," including White House counsel Fred Fielding, counselor Ed Gillespie, and budget director Jim Nussle.
After noting the continued "exodus of key Bush aides and confidants," the AP reports Townsend "decided it was time to take a break from government work -- only a break, not an end, she insisted -- and look for a job in the private sector." The AP adds "there was no word on a successor for Townsend." White House spokeswoman Dana Perino "said officials intended to act 'relatively soon,' because Bush wants some overlap between Townsend and her replacement before she leaves just after the first of the year." And the Los Angeles Times reports Perino "said Bush had been able to find worthy substitutes, and she took issue with what she said was the 'story line' that the president's self-proclaimed 'sprint to the finish' would be more difficult with such top aides as Townsend heading for the exits." The Financial Times, USA Today and the Washington Post run similar reports.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports this morning that "the bumpy, 20-month tenure of Minnesota's US Attorney Rachel Paulose ended abruptly Monday when she announced that she will return to Washington in January to serve as a legal policy adviser to Attorney General Michael Mukasey and his staff." The announcement "came after rumors filtered to the legal community that another top attorney in Paulose's office, Michael Cheever, had stepped down Friday as senior litigation counsel, and that her new civil chief, Greg Brooker, was also planning to go back to working as a prosecutor. ... Sources said that comments Paulose made last week to conservative blogger Scott Johnson on Power Line prompted the latest staff uprising." The New York Times reports that in "an unusual public statement last week on a conservative blog, Ms. Paulose suggested that she was a victim of 'McCarthyite hysteria that permits the anonymous smearing of any public servant who is now, or ever may have been, a member of the Federalist Society, a person or faith and/or a conservative (especially a young, conservative woman of color).'"
The Washington Post says Paulose, "at 34 the nation's youngest chief federal prosecutor, was part of a wave of Bush administration insiders dispatched to run US attorney's offices around the country, in what Democrats and other critics said reflected a strategy by then-Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales to inject politics into the administration of justice." The AP and Los Angeles Times runs similar stories.
The AP reports from Charles, City, VA, this morning that "a reflective President Bush on Monday honored acts of everyday decency and supreme sacrifice, and called on Americans to give back to their communities." In "his first speech dedicated to Thanksgiving," Bush "said the holiday is a time to hail -- and emulate -- those who serve causes larger than themselves. He cited police, firefighters, teachers and religious leaders as examples." The New York Times also stresses Bush's "reflective mood as he looks toward his final year in office," and adds "this year, the White House hoped to show a more contemplative side of Mr. Bush, who, his aides say, has been struck by the goodness of the many ordinary Americans he meets during his travels."
The Washington Post notes Bush made his remarks at "the historic Berkeley Plantation, where 38 English settlers held what many consider to be the nation's first Thanksgiving in 1619." In his speech, Bush "saluted the military and the nation's 'good Samaritans' and called on Americans to perform more community service." Bush, "in falling back on the theme of compassion, which was a staple of his presidential campaign in 2000," asked Americans "to honor those who make the country better, including teachers, firefighters, farmers, police officers and clergy." Before the speech, "Bush stopped by a Richmond food bank, where he looked over rows of canned goods. At one point, the president lifted up a can of Bush Beans and quipped, 'Why, cousin.'" The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports, "The president's audience was friendly; he was greeted with wild applause. After his 15-minute long address Bush plunged into the crowd and lingered to shake hands and pick up babies."
No Pardon For Ginny The Pig On its Metro section, the Washington Post reports Bush "was careful yesterday not to pick sides in Virginia's long battle for Thanksgiving primacy. Virginians, in historical writings and in forceful op-eds...assert that their Thanksgiving in 1619 was a full year and 17 days before the Massachusetts version. ... So how did Virginia finally get some measure of vindication? In truth, it's due, in part, to a pig named Ginny." Children's author Lisa Suhay has led a PR offensive to have Virginia recognized as the site of the first Thanksgiving, which was celebrated with ham rather than turkey. As part of that push, "more than 6,000 people from across the state have signed a petition to get Bush to pardon a pig today. Suhay even found a pig to pardon, an 80-pound spotted pig named Ginny, who resides at Frying Pan Farm Park in Herndon. ... So will Bush pardon the pig?" Alas, no. A White House spokesman said Bush "is going to continue the historic tradition of pardoning a turkey."
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Once again, the late night shows were in reruns last night due to the ongoing writers strike.
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