Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Mukasey Confirmation Prospects Uncertain

Only weeks ago, conventional wisdom in Washington had AG nominee Michael Mukasey easily winning confirmation in the US Senate. But as his hearings before the Judiciary Committee proceed, the media see a shift away from the nominee and some are even predicting Mukasey could end up being rejected by the Senate.

The AP, for example, says Mukasey's "prospects...dimmed Wednesday after he again refused to equate waterboarding with torture and more Democrats on a key committee announced they would vote against him." NBC Nightly News reported Mukasey's nomination "may be in trouble," while the Chicago Tribune says he "sent a letter this week to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) in which he would not go as far as Leahy and other Democrats want in condemning waterboarding as torture."

USA Today says the support for Mukasey's confirmation "showed...signs of eroding." The Washington Post reports White House spokesman Dana Perino said, "No one is ready to declare it [Mukasey's nomination] DOA." McClatchy also says Mukasey's confirmation "shifted Wednesday from a foregone conclusion to a question mark as top Senate Democrats said they couldn't support him."

The Politico reports, "The fate of attorney general nominee Michael Mukasey may rest on a simple question: Is waterboarding torture? He hasn't answered definitively, and his support has plummeted among Democrats." The Washington Times notes Leahy "said this week before the delivery of Mr. Mukasey's letter that it did not appear the former judge had the 10 votes needed to send his nomination to the Senate floor."

The Hill reports "Democratic attacks on...Mukasey are putting" Sen. Charles Schumer "in an increasingly difficult position. With a Senate Judiciary Committee vote on Mukasey now set for Nov. 6, Schumer finds himself a potential swing vote on Mukasey's confirmation, torn between his support for a fellow New Yorker and allegiance to his conference." The Los Angeles Times calls Schumer's vote "crucial" and "officially undecided," adding "some observers said they believed it would be difficult for Schumer to oppose the nomination given his previous enthusiastic support."

Roll Call, under the headline "Schumer Torn On Mukasey," makes the same point: "The liberal firebrand...could find himself in the unusual position of siding with a minority of Democrats to vote in favor of fellow New Yorker Mukasey during next week's Senate Judiciary Committee vote on the nomination."

The New York Times reports, "In adamantly refusing to declare waterboarding illegal," Mukasey "is steering clear of a potential legal quagmire for the Bush administration: criminal prosecution or lawsuits against Central Intelligence Agency officers who used the harsh interrogation practice and those who authorized it, legal experts said Wednesday."

Violence Waning In Baghdad

McClatchy reports, "Violence hit a yearly low in Baghdad during October, according to end-of-the-month statistics compiled Wednesday, even as killings elsewhere raised worrisome questions about whether security improvements will hold if the United States begins drawing down its forces next spring." US troop deaths in October "declined for the fifth straight month -- to 36, the lowest monthly total this year and the seventh lowest in 56 months of war," and civilian deaths "in Baghdad also reached a low point for the year during October, statistics compiled by McClatchy Newspapers show."

The AP says, "The AP's figures mirror other reports that the levels of bloodshed are falling here." But "the meaning of these statistics is disputed, and experts generally agree that the struggle for security and stability is far from over."

ABC World News reported, "The Iraqi government said there were close to 1,200 civilian deaths from violence in October. A high number to be sure. But the fewest since they began keeping track. 143 died in Baghdad. And that's the fewest this year." The Los Angeles Times runs a similar report.

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Democrats Advance Mini-Omnibus Spending Bill

The AP reports congressional Democrats "neared a spending showdown with President Bush on Wednesday, tying a must-pass military bill to a labor-education measure that Bush has vowed to veto." The Democratic plan, "which House-Senate negotiators will tackle Thursday, would combine three spending bills into one package totaling about $675 billion, or 70 percent of the government's discretionary budget."

The Wall Street Journal says a "$686 billion-plus budget bill began to take shape in Congress as negotiators agreed on the defense portion, which Democrats will wrap together with education and veterans funding today and send to the White House next week." With a "222-191 vote, the House endorsed the strategy. Among the last adjustments, $11.5 billion in emergency funds was added to speed production of heavily armored vehicles for U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The Hill reports Republicans "charged that Democrats are 'holding the troops hostage' to political maneuvering." The actions "represent initial skirmishes in a spending fight between Bush and congressional Democrats likely to dominate Congress the rest of the year."

Waxman Calls On White House To Produce Abramoff Documents

John Bresnahan writes in The Politico that House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) "says the White House is improperly withholding roughly more than 600 pages of documents related to imprisoned former GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and he wants them handed over to his committee by Nov. 6."

The Washington Post says Waxman "left room for negotiation, saying the White House could make the documents available to committee staff so they could assess whether they are needed for the panel's investigation." The Hill reports, "During a briefing with reporters, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino chided Waxman for distributing his letter to the press before sending it to" White House Counsel Fred Fielding or "simply picking up the phone and calling. She also expressed doubt as to Waxman's demands relating to internal documents and deliberations that, she said, 'we are probably not going to turn over.'"

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Drexel Debate Performance Seen As Clinton's Worst

In the news cycle since the Democratic presidential candidates' debate in Philadelphia on Tuesday, the media's narrative has turned from describing Hillary Clinton's male rivals "piling on" to Wednesday's description of Clinton as having botched the debate. The Washington Post, for example, reports in a front page story that after a "rare night of fumbles by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, her rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination rushed to maximize the damage yesterday, even as her advisers argued that the 'piling on' engaged in by an all-male field of opponents will ultimately drive more female voters into her camp." Clinton strategists "grudgingly acknowledged that the performance in Tuesday's debate in Philadelphia was not her finest and sought to contain the fallout."

The Washington (DC) Examiner (11/1, Ferrechio) reports that Clinton's debate performance "exposed flaws in her candidacy that could prove even more damaging in the weeks and months ahead as rivals ratchet up their attacks in an effort to block her path to the nomination, political analysts said Wednesday." Clinton "was clearly shaken atop her front-runner pedestal during the debate" when "her opponents relentlessly criticized her record and depicted her as an untrustworthy candidate."

The buzzword for Clinton's detractors this morning is "evasiveness," with the candidate under fire for not taking firm stands on issues such as New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to give driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. The Los Angeles Times, for example, reports that Barack Obama and John Edwards "wasted little time" in looking to exploit "what they cast as her evasiveness on several key issues," contending that "on at least five issues raised in the debate, Clinton replied in ways that left it unclear what she meant or what action she might take. That practice has worked for her in the past, permitting her to avoid positions that might antagonize voters, particularly the less partisan ones important to victory in the general election." The AP reports that in an interview Obama said Wednesday that Clinton's "less-than-straightforward answers in a Democratic debate raise questions about her ability to assume the presidency." Obama said, "This may be smart politics by Washington's standards, but it's not what America needs right now. Turning the page means offering the American people a clear sense of your principles and where you'd lead."

ABC World News reported Clinton "may find herself a bit on the defensive." ABC (Wright) added, "Obama finally went on the offensive. He and John Edwards were a formidable tag-team." John Edwards: "Will she be the person who brings change to this country? You know, I believe in Santa Claus. I believe in the tooth fairy. But I don't think that's going to happen." Wright: Clinton "was the punching bag. On issue after issue, they questioned her credibility." Mark Halperin, ABC News political analyst: "The biggest vulnerability she has is people seeing her as too political, too calculating, too trying to have it all ways. Last night, several times, she walked right into that stereotype."

NBC Nightly News reported, "Following up on their attacks last night, Hillary Clinton's challengers are trying to portray her as evasive, not trustworthy. It's an impression the Clinton campaign is trying to fix before it sticks." Critics say "Clinton gave them ammunition, ducking questions about how she'd stop Iran from going nuclear."

The CBS Evening News analyzed Clinton's driver's license for illegals answer as "her radar said 'whoops, general election mine field. Republicans, immigration hot button.' And those two clashed." Couric: "But she is in a bit of a conundrum, is she not? She doesn't want to stake out positions that may haunt her later on if, in fact, she gets the nomination. And at the same time she risks coming across as if she has no core values or beliefs." Greenfield: "And we have learned if you are labeled a waffler or flip-flopper in a campaign, that can prove to be very, very damaging."

The New York Times reports the discussion of the driver's license issue was "a moment that crystallized Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's struggles in Tuesday night's debate." Clinton's "verbal twists and turns provided her opponents with fodder for their central critique of Mrs. Clinton, which coursed throughout Tuesday's debate: That she was trying to have it both ways on the issue, much as she was trying to portray herself as antiwar while voting to authorize the use of force in Iraq."

Clinton Wins Backing Of Key Union

The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton "received the endorsement yesterday of one of the nation's largest and most politically active labor unions, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which has 1.4 million members." The union's executive board "voted to endorse Mrs. Clinton, capping a 10-month process in which the union's leaders interviewed candidates, sponsored candidate forums and polled members nationally and in several key states. 'We looked for the candidate who will fight for working families and who has the greatest ability to win,' said Gerald W. McEntee, the union's president. ... McEntee, who is chairman of the A.F.L.-C.I.O.'s political committee, said his union planned to spend $60 million on get-out-the-vote efforts and issue education next year." The AP adds that the endorsement is "a welcome boost for Clinton in the labor community. The 1.8-million member Service Employees International Union decided not to endorse a candidate on the national level, and SEIU's state chapters have been backing Clinton rivals John Edwards, whose pickups included the New Hampshire chapter on Wednesday, and Barack Obama."

Bloomberg reports, "'This is a tremendous boost for Clinton,' said Donna Brazile, who ran former Vice President Al Gore's presidential campaign in 2000. Union members know their communities and 'will be there when it matters,' she said." John Edwards "drew little support among AFSCME members and failed to win the support of any of the union's state chapters, according to McEntee." Sen. Barack Obama "won Illinois, Georgia and Hawaii, McEntee said."

Clinton Up By 8 Over Giuliani In Pew Poll

A Pew Research Center poll out this morning shows Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani 51%-43% in a 2008 trial heat. Clinton is propelled to her lead by a massive lead among women voters she tops Giuliani 57%-37% among them. Giuliani's lead among men is comparatively small at 49%-44%. Clinton also benefits from massive support from those in the lower income brackets. Among those with income of $20,000 to $29,999, Clinton leads 57%-37%. Among those with less than $20,000 in income, Clinton's lead is massive 72%-23%.

The AP reports the Pew poll also suggests there may be more trouble for Giuliani in the offing, as it finds "more than half of white evangelical Republicans would consider voting for a conservative third-party candidate should the 2008 presidential race pit Hillary Rodham Clinton against Rudy Giuliani." The survey was the "latest reading of discontent among one of the GOP's cornerstone voting blocs. Giuliani, the leading Republican contender in most national polls, is a former New York mayor whose views on abortion, gays and guns are considered too moderate by many conservatives." According to the poll, "55 percent of white evangelical Republicans said they would consider a conservative who ran as a third-party candidate. Forty-two percent said they would not."

Clinton, Giuliani Widen Leads In Primary The poll shows that in the Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 45%, followed by Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards at 12%. In Pew's September survey, Clinton led Obama 42%-25%. On the GOP side, Giuliani leads with 31%, followed by John McCain, 18%; Fred Thompson, 17%; Mitt Romney, 9%; and Mike Huckabee, 8%. In the September poll, Giuliani led Thompson 33%-22%. Pew surveyed 2,007 adults from October 17-23.

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "Well, Dick Cheney had an awkward moment tonight at the White House Halloween party. He went dressed as Darth Vader. And at the party, he ran into the real Darth Vader, who was dressed as Dick Cheney."

Jay Leno: "There was another big Democratic debate last night in Philadelphia. Seven candidates on stage debating. Seven, which, sadly, for Joe Biden, is the biggest crowd he's ever drawn."

Jay Leno: "It looks like oil may soon hit $100 a barrel. Oh, yeah. Today, President Bush said, 'Well, how much without the barrel?'"

Jay Leno: "Oh! And in his latest rantings, Osama bin Laden is now calling for his followers to avoid extremism. Oh, yeah, the last thing you want from a suicide bomber is some kind of radical wacko."

Jay Leno: "The President of Indonesia has released his first music album. ... It's called 'My Longing For You.' He actually wrote the songs and performed them. And now, President Bush is also putting his own album. It's called 'I Sing Gooder Than Him.'"

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