Fox News' Special Report reported, "The Pentagon has counted 24 hostile deaths in October, the fewest since March of 2006. Ten others have died of non- hostile causes, such as accidents and illness, for a total of 34." USA Today reports the "number of US combat deaths in Iraq is headed for the lowest level in more than a year and a half and the fifth consecutive monthly decline." The "new strategy, backed up by 30,000 more US servicemembers, has led to a decline in violence and weakened al-Qaeda, commanders say."
The AP, however, reports "the military cautioned it's too early to declare a long-term trend," though it "would be the second consecutive drop in monthly figures, after 65 Americans died in September and 84 in August." The Christian Science Monitor reports the data are "an encouraging sign, say analysts and defense officials, that the US strategy is working, at least for now."
Two of the three network newscasts noted the story last night although they appeared to assign different significance to the new data. ABC World News saw the casualty numbers as "another indication of how things are changing." NBC Nightly News, meanwhile, reported that in Iraq, "three more Americans were killed there today when an IED went off southeast of Baghdad. That brings the toll for October to 37 Americans dead, which we should point out is the lowest monthly total in a year and a half. Since the war started almost 4 1/2 years ago, more than 3,800 Americans have died in the war in Iraq."
GAO Report Highlights Ongoing Problems McClatchy reports, "The US and Iraqi governments have failed to take advantage of a dramatic drop in violence in Iraq, according to a report issued Tuesday by a US watchdog agency, which warned that prospects were waning 'for achieving current US security, political and economic goals in Iraq.'" The Washington Post says "progress on political goals and reconstruction has been stalled by weaknesses in US strategy and the ineffectiveness of the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad," according to a GAO report.
The New York Times reports "more than $100 billion has been devoted to rebuilding Iraq, mainly thanks to American taxpayers and Iraqi oil revenues, but nearly five years into the conflict, output in critical areas like water and electricity remain below United States goals, federal oversight officials reported to Congress on Tuesday."
And the CBS Evening News ran a piece about "a new threat tonight, not from bombs or bullets, but from a dam that could burst at any time. It was built during the Saddam era north of Mosul. And if it goes...the results could be catastrophic."
Democrats Divided Over War Funds Meanwhile, the AP reports congressional Democrats are "debating whether to approve up to $70 billion more for Iraq and Afghanistan, only a down payment on President Bush's $196 billion war spending request but enough to keep the wars afloat for several more months." But the move "also would irritate scores of other Democrats, who want to pay only to bring troops home and who say their leadership is not doing enough to end the war."
President Bush is continuing to pressure congressional Democrats to produce appropriations bills in line with his recommendations and to negotiate a deal on the SCHIP health insurance bill. In what Fox News' Special Report called a "pep rally," President Bush on Tuesday "urged his party allies to stick together and help get spending bills to his desk that he can sign. And he once again castigated Congressional Democrats for wasting time."
The Wall Street Journal notes Bush also said "he will veto any attempt to combine annual appropriations bills for veterans' care, education and the Pentagon." Bush said Congress "is not getting its work done," accusing Democrats "of wasting time on a 'constant stream' of investigations in the House of Representatives and an 'endless series of failed votes' on Iraq in the Senate."
In a story carried widely in media outlets across the country, the AP reports Bush informed GOP lawmakers "he will not agree to legislation expanding children's health insurance if it includes a tobacco tax increase." Meanwhile, in what was seen as "an ominous sign for the White House, Republican leaders said during the day they might defy a White House veto," signaling "the clearest sign yet that even Bush's most loyal House allies are eager for an end to the impasse, which many Republicans see as politically damaging to the GOP."
The Wall Street Journal reports, "Echoing other recent comments, Mr. Bush chastised the Senate for spending time on a SCHIP bill that it knows he will veto." The Hill says Bush and congressional leaders "traded accusations Tuesday about who is stalling progress on spending bills and the nation's top priorities." Democrats, "clearly enthused to share a stage and camera with Bush, warmed to the fight." The New York Times says that "perhaps reflecting the campaign season under way, the president's words took on a partisan edge."
21 States Could Run Out Of SCHIP Money The New York Times reports, "Twenty-one states will run out of money for children's health insurance in the coming year, and at least nine of those states will exhaust their allotments in March if Congress simply continues spending at current levels."
Reid May Delay SCHIP Vote Gain House Votes The Hill reports Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid signaled his willingness to postpone a vote on the SCHIP bill "to give supporters more time to woo wayward Republicans in order to obtain a veto-proof majority in the House."
GOP Sens. Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch "have been meeting with their counterparts in the House to consider possible compromises on the bill." The New York Times notes that President Bush "complained that White House officials were not included in the discussions."
Congress Prepared To Override Bush On Water Bill Roll Call reports GOP leaders "readily concede that Congress easily will override a threatened veto of the $23 billion Water Resources Development Act, a bill critics complain is bloated with water pork but lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have touted as critical to building levees on the hurricane-battered Gulf Coast and numerous other projects across the country. ... That political reality has some Republicans, even some conservatives, recommending that Bush focus on battles where he thinks he has the votes, like in the coming showdown over appropriations bills."
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" On its front page, the Washington Post reports Attorney General-designate Michael Mukasey told Senate Democrats yesterday "that a kind of simulated drowning known as waterboarding is 'repugnant to me,' but he said he does not know whether the interrogation tactic violates US laws against torture." Mukasey's "uncertainty" about the method's legality "has raised new questions about the success of his nomination," which "seemed a sure thing just two weeks ago."
The AP notes some senators "also focused on a Mukasey comment that appeared to indicate he believes that the president in some circumstances is not constrained by the law." The New York Times says it was "unclear whether the answers would be enough to win endorsement from the Senate Judiciary Committee, where the torture issue has threatened to block" his confirmation.
The Hill says Mukasey's failure to condemn the technique "appears likely to escalate" the debate over his confirmation. McClatchy also reports the story, while the AP notes that Senate Democrats seeking the presidency "said Tuesday they will vote against Attorney General-nominee Michael Mukasey unless he says unequivocally that waterboarding amounts to torture." Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports a White House official "defended the response provided by Mr. Mukasey because 'he has not been briefed on classified programs.'"
CIA Director Defends Interrogation Practices The AP reports CIA Director Michael Hayden "defended his agency's interrogation practices Tuesday as political pressure mounted" on Mukasey "to reject a technique that allegedly was part of the CIA's interrogation program."
The Washington Times reports, "Al Qaeda is not likely to initiate a major attack on U.S. soil in the near future, military analysts say. The group is shifting toward 'small and medium-sized operations in the hopes of draining U.S. resources and economy,' William McCants, a fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, told a" CSIS "forum last week."
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The Democratic candidates gathered in Philadelphia at Drexel University for their seventh debate last night. With Hillary Clinton firmly ensconced as the frontrunner in most polls, her rivals for the nomination piled on, attacking her positions on trade, Iraq, drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, and Iran. The AP reports Clinton's "chief Democratic rivals, concerned about her growing lead in the polls, criticized her candor and consistency Tuesday in a televised debate that promised more fireworks than earlier presidential forums." Obama "began immediately, saying Clinton has changed her positions on the NAFTA trade pact, torture policies and the Iraq war. Leadership, he said, does not mean 'changing positions whenever it's politically convenient.'" Edwards "chimed in, saying Clinton 'defends a broken system that's corrupt in Washington, D.C.'" The AP adds Clinton "shrugged off the remarks, saying she has been the focus of Republican candidates' 'conversations and consternation' because she is leading in the polls. She said she has specific plans on Social Security, diplomacy and health care." USA Today reports the "pounding on the New York senator became so intense that, at one point, another candidate, Gov. Bill Richardson, jumped to her defense, protesting 'this holier-than-thou attitude towards Sen. Clinton' as 'close to a personal attack.'" But Clinton, who has "racked up a double-digit lead in national polls but faces a tighter race in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, appeared unrattled."
The New York Times reports in a front page story that Clinton "came under withering attack from the rest of the Democratic presidential field last night in a pitched two-hour debate that her opponents used to challenge her candor and electability and to portray her as enabling President Bush to prepare for an invasion of Iran." At times, it "seemed that Mrs. Clinton was parrying attacks from every corner of the stage - from her opponents and moderators alike - reflecting the vulnerabilities that come from being a high-visibility candidate who has built large leads in national polls with just two months to go until the first vote." The Los Angeles Times reports Obama "challenged Hillary Clinton's electability and candor," but he "failed to rattle the front-runner or do much, it seemed, to shake up the Democratic race." The Wall Street Journal reports Clinton's "dominance of the Democratic presidential field was on display at a debate last night as she sloughed off pointed criticism from rivals and aimed most of her fire at the Bush administration and the Republicans who seek their party's nomination to succeed him." The Philadelphia Inquirer reports, "Early and often, on Iraq, Iran and electability," Clinton "was sharply criticized by her rivals during a Democratic presidential debate last night at Drexel University. This encounter was the candidates' most contentious of the year, with the front-running New York senator taking repeated verbal shots, particularly from Barack Obama and John Edwards."
Drivers License Issue Seen As Only "Serious Stumble" By Clinton The Washington Post reports in a front page story that the "most telling exchange came minutes before the debate ended, when Clinton declined to answer repeated questions about whether she supported New York Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer's proposal to allow illegal immigrants to obtain driver's licenses, after earlier suggesting that she did." Edwards "pounced, arguing that Clinton had offered evasiveness when Americans want honesty and consistency from their leaders." Edwards said, "What we've had seven years is double talk from Bush and Cheney, and I think America deserves us to be straight."
The New York tabloids focused heavily on Clinton's response to the immigration drivers license issue in their general news stories on the debate, far more than out of state papers. The New York Sun reports on its website that Clinton's "only serious stumble came in response to a question on an unexpected issue, Governor Spitzer's plan to issue drivers licenses to illegal aliens." The New York Daily News reports Clinton "got knocked off-balance trying to defend Gov. Spitzer's much-criticized plan on driver's licenses for illegal immigrants -- without actually endorsing it." Long Island Newsday makes the drivers license issue the focus of its debate coverage, reporting Clinton "stumbled Tuesday night near the end of a debate in which she seemed under constant attack, appearing to simultaneously oppose and support Gov. Eliot Spitzer's plan to give driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants." Under the headline, "Hill Trips Over Spitz Debate. Bungle On Alien Plan," the New York Post reports Clinton "stumbled badly at last night's Democratic debate when she repeatedly refused to give a direct answer about whether she supports Gov. Spitzer's plan to give driver's licenses to illegal aliens -- and got slammed by her opponents for evasive double-talk."
Analysts Generally Sees Strong Clinton Performance, Except License Issue In a post on his "The Fix" blog on the website of the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza writes that Clinton emerged "largely unscathed despite the near-relentless focus on her during the two-hour long debate." In a blog posting on the website of the Los Angeles Times entitled "Clinton Stumbles A Bit In Democratic Debate," Don Frederick writes, "A heavyweight bout that goes the distance isn't necessarily determined by the early rounds, as tonight's debate among the Democratic presidential aspirants vividly illustrated." Clinton "was unfazed by initial attempts to knock her off stride. But as the forum proceeded, some points actually may have been scored against her. Not enough to seriously jeopardize her front-runner's standing in her party's contest. But enough to keep this race interesting." In an analysis at Salon.com, Walter Shapiro has a similar take to Frederick. Calling the debate "the most explosive event of this endless pre-primary season," Shapiro said, "Only in the last 10 minutes of the debate, long after it seemed like she had absorbed the worst without losing her stride, did the New York senator suddenly stumble in the homestretch."
Yepsen, Simon Pan Clinton Performance At least two noted observers panned Clinton's performance. In his column in the Des Moines Register, David Yepsen writes that Edwards "emerged as the evenings most effective and articulate challenger to Clinton, who did not acquit herself well and turned in an uneven, sometimes waffling performance." Referring to the license question, Yepsen writes, "Near the end of the event, she stumbled on a simple question of whether she supported or opposed a plan by New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer to give drivers' licenses to undocumented immigrants. Clinton danced around the question, clearly didn't answer it, and is now likely to see clips of that meandering response show up in attack ads for the rest of the 2008 race."
In an analysis in The Politico, Roger Simon writes, "We now know something that we did not know before: When Hillary Clinton has a bad night, she really has a bad night." Clinton "gave the worst performance of her entire campaign. It was not just that her answer about whether illegal immigrants should be issued drivers' licenses was at best incomprehensible and at worst misleading. It was that for two hours she dodged and weaved, parsed and stonewalled." Simon adds, "when it was over, both the Barack Obama and John Edwards campaigns signaled that in the weeks ahead they intend to hammer home a simple message: Hillary Clinton does not say what she means or mean what she says."
Romney Tops On GOP Side. A series of three polls out this morning shows Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney both leading their primary fields in three key early states. In Iowa, the American Research Group survey shows Clinton leading with 32%, followed by Barack Obama, 22%, and John Edwards, 15%. In New Hampshire, Clinton leads with 40%, followed by Obama with 22% and Edwards with 10%. In South Carolina, Clinton leads with 41%, followed by Obama at 19% and Edwards at 18%.
On the GOP side, Romney leads in Iowa with 27%, followed by Mike Huckabee, 19%; Rudy Giuliani, 16%; John McCain, 14%; and Fred Thompson, 8%. In New Hampshire, Romney leads with 30%, followed by Giuliani, 23%; McCain, 17%; Huckabee, 7%; and Thompson, 5%. In South Carolina, Romney is on top with 29%, followed by Giuliani, 23%; McCain, 13%; Thompson, 10%; and Huckabee, 5%. ARG poll 600 likely voters from each party in each state from October 26-29.
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A new poll out this morning from Quinnipiac University has some good news for Rudy Giuliani. In a 2008 trial heat, the poll shows him edging Hillary Clinton 45%-43%, just about reversing a 46%-43% deficit in a similar poll in September. However, Barack Obama narrowly edges Giuliani 43%-42% in a trial heat, as does John Edwards, 44%-41%. John McCain is also very competitive with Clinton, tying her 44%-44% after trailing 47%-41% in the August survey. McCain also ties Obama, 43%-43%, and Edwards, 42%-42%. Mitt Romney trails all three of the top Democrats by at least 10 points, while Fred Thompson trails them by 5 to 10 points.
In the Democratic primary, Clinton has widened her lead over Obama since the last survey. She leads with 47%, followed by Obama, 21%, and Edwards, 12%. In the August poll, Clinton led Obama 36%-21%.
On the GOP side, Giuliani leads with 27%, followed by Thompson, 17%; Romney, 14%; and McCain 13%. Huckabee places fifth with 5%, with the rest of the field at 4% or less. In the August survey, Giuliani led with 28%, followed by Romney with 15%.
In comments accompanying the survey, pollster Maurice Carroll says, "Sen. Clinton's success on the campaign trail and the perception that she is unstoppable has made her the prime target for all the other candidates, Republican and Democratic. And the wounds are showing. The Clinton Express has hit a bump. Future polls will show if it's been derailed."
A new telephone poll out this morning from Zogby International shows Hillary Clinton holding a double-digit lead over her Democratic rivals nationally. The poll of 527 likely voters taken October 24-27 shows Clinton leading with 38%, followed by Barack Obama, 24%; John Edwards, 12%; and the rest of the field at 2% or less. In a similar poll released concluded September 16, Clinton led Obama 35%-21%. Clinton's lead in the polling series has remained basically static since Zogby began polling the contest in May, with her lead varying between 12 and 15 points.
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Jay Leno: "A lot of candidates getting in the Halloween spirit. I understand, today, John Edwards said he was going to get a $15 haircut and go as someone from the 'Other America.'"
Jay Leno: "And according to the latest poll, presidential candidate Chris Dodd is at 0% of the vote. ... You know what that means? Even he is not voting for himself."
Jay Leno: "And our new Democratic Congress. Remember they promised longer workweeks? ... Well, now they announce they're going to a four-day workweek. I guess they realize they don't need a full five days to do nothing."
Conan O'Brien: "Presidential candidate Bill Richardson has called on his opponents to end all negative campaigning. Yeah. When they heard this, all of the other candidates rolled their eyes and said, 'Whatever you say, fat boy.'"
Jimmy Kimmel: "There was another -- I think, the 75th debate tonight. The Democrats got together in Philadelphia, at Drexel University. There was a lot of anticipation going in because Barack Obama, who's a distant second, promised to go after Hillary Clinton. He started the debate in a strange way. He punched her in the face."
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