On its front page this morning, the Washington Post reports that the US military "believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal US adversary in Iraq." The story goes on to describe the debate between those who believe declaring victory would provide a strong "psychological" boost to the overall US mission, and those believe "advantages overall would be minimal" if al Qaeda were able to show any "residual" ability to inflict damage.
The Washington Post story follows other positive assessments of the "surge." In an editorial yesterday, the Washington Post editorialized that while skepticism greeted last months assessment of progress in Iraq, "A month later, there isn't much room for such debate, at least about the latest figures," as "in September, Iraqi civilian deaths were down 52 percent from August and 77 percent from September 2006." Also in yesterday's Washington Post, Army Capt. Jim Golby, currently on his second tour of duty in Iraq, writes, "I'm sick of hearing about all the horrible things that happen in Iraq without ever hearing about any of the good ones."
U.S. News and World Report, meanwhile, reports this week, "Nationwide, the Iraqi government reported 827 civilian deaths in September, a still-painful toll but half the number in August and the lowest level in more than a year. U.S. military deaths totaled 66, the lowest monthly number since August 2006. ... One factor has been the implementation of major aspects of the surge strategy, say military officials. In addition to more troops, one key step has been to establish joint security stations throughout Baghdad."
Ex-Commander Sanchez: Iraq An Endless "Nightmare" NBC Nightly News reported over the weekend that Ret. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, who commanded coalition troops in Iraq for a year beginning June 2003, has "turned on the Bush Administration, accusing it of failure in Iraq." Sanchez is "the highest-ranking former top military commander in Iraq to openly criticize the war in Iraq and squarely laid the blame squarely on the White House." The General "in a scathing speech," claims that "even in the beginning the US strategy in Iraq was doomed to fail." The AP said that according to Sanchez "the US mission in Iraq is a 'nightmare with no end in sight' because of political misjudgments after the fall of Saddam Hussein that continue today." The New York Times called the general's comments "a sweeping indictment of the four-year effort in Iraq." The Washington Post and Houston Chronicle, among other media sources, ran similar stories, noting that Sanchez was blamed by many for the Abu Ghraib scandal, left his post under strident press criticism, and was denied a promotion by the White House.
Al Qaeda: Iraq Has Made US Less Safe Also criticizing the US-led war was al Qaeda itself. In an "exclusive" report that led its broadcast last night, NBC Nightly News reported, "Six years ago this month America went to war and whether in the mountains of Afghanistan or the streets of Baghdad, the aim we have been told is to make Americans safer from terror here at home. But are we?" NBC interviewed al Qaeda fighters and supporters in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia who asserted the Iraq war has been a boon to their terrorist organization, making America less safe.
Waxman Probing Bush's Pre-War Speeches U.S. News and World Report's Washington Whispers reports this week that Rep. Henry Waxman "is still sniffing around the White House for proof the president lied when making the case for going to war in Iraq. We hear that he's been quietly summoning former Bush aides, especially speechwriters, to testify behind closed doors about what they knew and how they phrased his words on the issue. Whispers hears that one called in was John Gibson, a former National Security Council speechwriter. He wouldn't spill to us. The committee had no comment either, but an administration official says, 'It is yet another item on the ever growing fishing expedition list from Representative Waxman.'"
Pelosi Says She Feels Antiwar Activists' Pain The Hill notes on its website today that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday that "she would not give Congress high marks with regard to ending the war in Iraq, adding that she understands voter dissatisfaction on the issue that has sent the congressional approval rating tumbling." Pelosi "said Democrats are 'doing all we can to change the debate' but stressed that they do not have the kind of power that the White House has."
The ongoing diplomatic spat between the US and Turkey, which began when a House panel passed a resolution accusing the Turks of "genocide" against Armenians in the early 20th Century, could soon have a detrimental effect on US military operations. USA Today notes this morning that "about 70% of US air cargo headed for Iraq goes through Turkey as does about one-third of the fuel used by the US military there. US bases get water and other supplies carried into northern Iraq by Turkish truckers." US C-17 cargo planes "fly military supplies to US soldiers in remote areas of Iraq from Turkey's Incirlik Air Base, avoiding the use of Iraqi roads vulnerable to bomb attacks."
The Financial Times reports Turkey's "most senior general warned on Sunday that military ties with the US would be severely damaged if the House of Representatives adopted a resolution labelling the massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide." The warning "comes amid signs that relations between Washington and Ankara are starting to unravel." General Yashar Buyukanit "told Milliyet newspaper that the US 'had shot itself in the foot' in its handling of the Armenian resolution, adopted by a House committee last week, and by failing to clamp down on the PKK Kurdish separatist movement in northern Iraq, which Turkey blames for the killings of at least 30 Turkish soldiers and civilians in the past two weeks." The New York Times notes Buyukanit also said if the resolution "were to be passed by the full House of Representatives, 'our military relations with the US would never be as they were in the past,' he said. 'We could not explain this to our public,' he said." The Washington Post runs a similar report.
Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defended the resolution, and said she would move ahead with plans to have the full House pass the resolution. Moreover, Pelosi said on ABC's This Week, "I've never heard from the President on this subject. ... I've heard from the Secretary of State and others in the Administration, but I've never heard from the President. ... This resolution is one that is consistent with what our government has always said about what happened at that time. ... There's never been a good time. Certainly force protection of our troops is our top priority when we are engaged in conflict. ... When I came to Congress 20 years ago, it wasn't the right time because of the Soviet Union. Then that fell, and then it wasn't the right time because of the Gulf War I. And then it wasn't the right time because of overflights of Iraq. And now it's not the right time because of Gulf War II. ... We would be the 24th country to make this statement. Genocide still exists, and we saw it in Rwanda; we see it now in Darfur."
Turkey Shells Northern Iraq AFP reports this morning, "Turkish troops Sunday sent shells crashing across the Iraqi border into several villages in the autonomous Kurdish region." In northern Iraq, "residents of a village near the northern Iraq border town of Zakhu fled after shells slammed into their homes and farms during a day-long bombardment that caused major damage but no casualties." It is reported that the "cross-border shelling in a number of areas began Saturday around 10:00 pm (1900 GMT) and carried on sporadically into Sunday," while "most of the shells landed in open land." Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said "he was ready to brave international censure should his country decide to deal ruthlessly with Kurdish rebel bases in Iraq."
With votes coming as early as Thursday to override the President's veto of State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) legislation, Democrats spent the weekend trying to press their apparent PR edge on the issue. According to virtually all Hill observers, Bush's veto will stand. The question many is the media are asking is: What will the debate do to GOP prospects in 2008? The Christian Science Monitor calls the upcoming override attempt "a moment of political drama that could tip close congressional races next fall, as well as raise the profile of other bills dealing with children's health in the US and abroad." House Democrats call it "Bush versus the kids," and together with "outside groups are stepping up ad campaigns targeting 21 Republicans who voted against the bill."
On Saturday, the New York Times portrayed Northeastern Republican House members under fire in their home districts. The "intensity" of constituents anger, added the Times, "underscores the Democrats' growing confidence that some Republicans could be imperiling their re-election prospects." This morning, the New York Times runs a very similar piece, this time focusing on Maryland Rep Roscoe G. Bartlett, a Republican from a "conservative Congressional district in western Maryland." Bartlett thought his vote would please these "conservatives" back home, but "some of his constituents are not so sure." USA Today, meanwhile, notes the full-fledged campaign against those who opposed SCHIP "on television and radio, in phone calls and e-mails." Proponents of the bill "are pressuring about 20 Republicans to switch sides and help override...Bush's veto. The full-court press includes preachers, rock stars such as Paul Simon and sick kids in an effort to sway the result -- or the next election. USA Today singles out the "affluent Detroit suburb" of GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg, who sides with Bush on the issue.
Against this background, the White House continues to offer to negotiatie and to paint Democrats as obstructionists. USA Today notes White House Deputy press secretary Tony Fratto said Bush is "more than willing to work with members of both parties from both Houses." The Washington Times reports House Minority Leader John Boehner "accused Democrats of playing 'political games' with the bill. 'When they designed the bill, they knew it would be vetoed,' the Ohio Republican said yesterday." The GOP message, however, is finding little resonance in the media.
On ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was asked about GOP opposition to the SCHIP expansion bill. Pelosi said, "Isn't that sad for Americans children? It doesn't mean we aren't working hard. Throughout the country governors, mayors, people who work with children on a regular basis, every organization from AARP, AMA to YMCA and everything in between, Catholic Hospitals Association, they're all appealing to members of Congress to supported and recognize bipartisan legislation." The Politico notes Pelosi also "vowed no compromise on the $35 billion State Children's Health Insurance Program. 'No lower level than 10 million children,' she said on Sunday on ABC's 'This Week.' 'I wish the president had signed the bill. We'll try very hard to override it.'" But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said a compromise is inevitable. McConnell said, also on ABC's This Week, "There will have to be a deal. We're not going to leave uninsured children uncovered. ... I don't know any members of Congress, Republican or Democrat, who are not in favor of this plan to provide insurance for low-income children. The issue is, how do you do it? And this particular proposal, which the President, in my view, correctly vetoed, is a bad deal."
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U.S. News and World Report, in an article titled "A Brewing Fight On The Right: The presidential race is exposing fissures among evangelicals," reports, "More than 2,000 conservative evangelicals are expected in the nation's capital for a two-day 'Values Voters Summit' that will feature speeches by all nine Republican presidential candidates. The event is sponsored by the lobbying arm of the Family Research Council, a dominant conservative evangelical organization. The highlight: a straw poll that promises a glimpse into who these restive conservatives can envision themselves supporting in 2008. ... Many have watched in dismay as former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who supports legalized abortion and opposes a constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage, continues to lead Republican preference polls. Some evangelicals are openly disdainful of Giuliani, but others are counseling caution."
The Washington Post reports, "Sponsored in part by Perkins's group and by Focus on the Family, evangelical leader James Dobson's organization, it claims to be 'the largest gathering of values voters from across the nation.'" The Post notes, "Just a few weeks ago, several evangelical leaders said they would consider supporting a third-party candidate if Giuliani, or any other pro-abortion-rights candidate, were to" win the GOP nomination, but Mike Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback "have warned that such a strategy by the religious right would benefit Democrats. 'I think a third party only helps elect Hillary' Rodham Clinton, Huckabee said in an interview with washingtonpost.com. ... In an online chat with readers on washingtonpost.com, Brownback said that to 'support a third party will ensure a Democrat being elected to the White House.'"
In his column in the Washington Post today, Robert Novak says the "most surprising recent national polling result was an answer given by likely Republican voters who attend church weekly when Gallup asked their presidential preference. A plurality chose Rudy Giuliani, a Catholic who in 1999 said: 'I don't attend regularly, but I attend occasionally.' Their choice raises deep concern among prominent conservative Republicans who feel it would be a serious mistake for leaders of the religious right to scorn the former mayor of New York." But the "situation is not a simple confrontation between the Christian right and Giuliani. The Gallup data suggest that" James Dobson of Focus on the Family "and the Salt Lake City group may be out of touch with rank-and-file churchgoers."
The Chicago Tribune reports Barack Obama "acknowledged Sunday that Americans would pay higher costs for electricity if his environmental program to vastly reduce greenhouse emissions is successful." Speaking to "about 200 people at Des Moines' downtown library to discuss the relationship of faith and environmental stewardship," Obama "said his proposals to temper the effects of global warming include a cap on carbon emissions to effect greenhouse gas reductions of 80 percent by 2050." Obama said, "I hope everybody understands, if we are serious about dealing with global warming, there is going to be a spike in the unit costs of electricity." Obama said "his acknowledgment was representative of one theme of his campaign, that 'I can't just tell people what they want to hear.'" The Des Moines Register adds that Obama promised to subsidize low-income families' energy bills.
The AP reports Obama said, "It is our responsibility to ensure that this planet remains clean and safe and livable for our children and for all of God's children. But in recent years, science has made it undeniably clear that our generation is not living up to this responsibility. Global warming is not a someday problem, it is now." The AP adds Obama said "he would force industries and power companies to clean up their operations."
USA Today reports a Marist Poll of New Hampshire voters shows Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic field in New Hampshire with 41%, followed by Barack Obama at 20% and John Edwards with 11%. On the GOP side, Mitt Romney leads with 26%, followed by Rudy Giuliani, 20%; John McCain, 17%; and Fred Thompson, 10%.
The AP reports that a Mason-Dixon survey of 300 Nevada Democratic voters shows Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic presidential field with 39%, followed by Barack Obama with 21%, John Edwards with 9% and Bill Richardson with 8%. On the GOP side, the survey of 300 Nevada Republican voters shows Rudy Giuliani leading with 28%, followed by Fred Thompson with 23%, Mitt Romney with 17% and Sen. John McCain with 9%. The AP notes, "Clinton does not fare well in a hypothetical general-election matchup against any of the top three Republicans," with Giuliani defeating her 51%-44%, Thompson besting her 50%-44% and Romney topping her 49% to 43%. USA Today also runs a brief report on this story.
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Jay Leno: "This week, President Bush said that Congress needs to give him more power to spy on Americans by making changes to the Protect America Act. You ever notice he always gives these pieces of legislation names that you can't disagree with? ... How do you argue with the Protect America Act? Give it a fair name. At least call it the Ignore The Constitution Act. Then you can argue about it."
Jay Leno: "Well, congratulations to former Vice President Al Gore, won the Nobel Peace Prize. How about that? And he did it without a single vote from Florida."
Jay Leno: "Well, the White House spokesman said President Bush is very happy Al Gore won. Not Dick Cheney. Oh, no. Dick Cheney said...now he wants to bomb Norway."
David Letterman: "It's...Bill and Hillary Clintons' 32nd wedding anniversary. Congratulations to the Clintons. And it's kind of sweet, even after 32 years Bill planned a very romantic evening. Candlelight dinner, dancing, and then home to Hillary."
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