Just in case things were not dicey enough in Iraq, a budding diplomatic row with Turkey threatens to erode the relationship between the US and the country ABC World News called the "crucial US ally just north of Iraq." A House panel yesterday passed a resolution condemning the mass killing of Armenians at Turkish hands early in the 20th Century. The resolution, opposed by the Administration, called the event "genocide," apparently a very touchy issue for Turkey, which disagrees with a passion an "obsession," the Christian Science Monitor calls it. The heightened tensions, and the wave of anti-US outrage it sparked, come as Turks debate how to handle a second issue: a recent increase in terrorist attacks carried out by Kurdish militants operating from inside Iraqi territory. Both events, says the Monitor, "are swiftly combining as a strategic tipping point in US-Turkey relations that could affect American forces in Iraq." Turkey "accuses the US and Iraqi Kurdish forces in northern Iraq of providing safe haven and military support for an estimated 3,000 PKK rebels, and not doing enough to stop cross-border attacks." Now Turkey says it may take matters into its own hands, and send its own troops into Iraq.
With a potential crisis looming, the Armenia-genocide issue is making US efforts to defuse the situation even more difficult. As ABC World News reported last night, after the House committee vote, Turkey "ordered its ambassador in Washington to come home for consultations -- in diplomatic circles that's a protest. ... The White House had warned this might happen. Today, the White House said Congress would better spend its time addressing current problems at home." The AP reports that in addition to recalling its ambassador, Egeman Bagis, an aide to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Turkish media that Turkey "might have to 'cut logistical support to the US.' Analysts also have speculated the resolution could make Turkey more inclined to send troops into northern Iraq to hunt Turkish Kurd rebels, a move opposed by the US because it would disrupt one of the few relatively stable and peaceful Iraqi areas."
The US military is already pondering alternatives. The New York Times reports the US military "said they had a contingency plan in case Turkey followed through on threats to shut off the United States military's use to its territory if the full House approved a resolution." Such a move by Turkey "could mean the loss at least temporarily of Incirlik Air Base in southeastern Turkey, a key resupply hub for Iraq, and the closing of the Turkish-Iraq border to fuel trucks for the American military. It could take months to increase operations in other logistical hubs, including Jordan, Kuwait and at the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr in the northern Persian Gulf, the officials said."
The New York Times notes that "in uncharacteristically strong language, President Abdullah Gul criticized the vote" in a statement, saying: "Unfortunately, some politicians in the United States have once more dismissed calls for common sense, and made an attempt to sacrifice big issues for minor domestic political games." The Financial Times says the House's non-binding resolution "could mark a turning point in relations between Washington and Ankara and jeopardize US troops in Iraq," while the Washington Post reports that the Bush administration "has scrambled to contain the damage." The Washington Times, Los Angeles Times and New York Times also analyze the situation.
In Baghdad On Thursday, the New York Times reports, "A Kurdish lawmaker in the Iraqi Parliament today condemned preparations by Turkey's government for potential cross-border military action against Kurdish rebels in Iraq." The lawmaker, Mahmoud Othman, "said he understood that there was some mobilization by the Turkish military on the Turkish side of the border" and "said the weakness of the Iraqi government was to blame for Turkey's ability to make its threat of military action."
The Washington Times reports Republican lawmakers say "the immunization of Democratic House staffers against a host of major illnesses before attending NASCAR races for a public health fact-finding mission" is "an overreaction and an insult to the sport's fans." But Rep. Bennie Thompson (D), who is "conducting a study of homeland security measures at mass gatherings," says the "recommendation to get immunization shots is a solid preventive policy." Rep. Robin Hayes (R), "whose district includes" the NASCAR raceway in Concord, "takes exception to the recommendation that staffers be immunized against hepatitis A, hepatitis B, tetanus, diphtheria and influenza."
Democrats Clash With Liberal Base Democrats are finding that, on Iraq and a number of other issues, the limits of their narrow congressional majorities on what they are able to enact have frustrated their liberal base. The New York Times notes that despite his past advocacy of homosexual rights, Rep. Barney Frank "has been under siege by gay rights groups" angry "because Mr. Frank has removed specific language about 'gender identity' from the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, a bill that would protect gay men and lesbians in the workplace and that gay rights advocates say would now leave transsexuals and transgender individuals vulnerable." The "bitter tug of war between gay groups and one of their best friends on Capitol Hill is the latest example of how Democrats in Congress, since regaining majority control this year, have been torn between making compromises needed to pass legislation and satisfying the unrelenting demands of the party's liberal base."
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The Los Angeles Times reports in a front page story that CIA Director Michael V. Hayden "has mounted a highly unusual challenge to the agency's chief watchdog, ordering an internal investigation of an inspector general who has issued a series of scathing reports sharply critical of top CIA officials." The move "has prompted concerns that Hayden is seeking to rein in an inspector general who has used the office to bring harsh scrutiny of CIA figures from former Director George J. Tenet to undercover operatives running secret overseas prison sites."
The New York Times reports that Inspector General John L. Helgerson's "aggressive investigations of the CIA's detention and interrogation programs and other matters have created resentment among agency operatives."
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The Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 has been jointly awarded to former Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change." The award was announced early this morning. The Financial Times reports Al Gore "on Thursday overtook Barack Obama in a closely watched futures betting market on the next Democratic nominee fuelled by speculation that he would pick up the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday." Gore's "odds of winning the Democratic nomination for president moved up to 13 per cent on Intrade, the online betting shop, against 11.5 per cent for Mr Obama and 47 per cent for Hillary Clinton." But political analysts "said it was highly unlikely that he was planning a late entry into the race for the presidential nomination."
In a blog posting on the website of the Washington Post, Dan Balz writes that Gore is "again back in the conversation" about the presidential campaign since the Nobel Prize speculation began, but "His associates were quick to tamp down again on all the speculation that has been building this week, starting with suggestions that he may be truly in the running to win the Nobel Prize. A great honor, they say, but not something that anyone around him expects to happen. 'As for the Nobel Peace Prize, [there] are 180-plus wonderful nominees and we expect tomorrow to be another day of working on the climate crisis,' Gore spokeswoman Kalee Kreider said in an email message."
Giuliani Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Thompson FOX News reported on its website that a FOX News national telephone survey of 377 registered Democratic voters conducted Oct. 9-10 shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic presidential field with 50%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama with 32% and John Edwards with 11%. On the GOP side, the FOX News survey of 316 registered Republican voters shows Rudy Giuliani leading with 29%, followed by Fred Thompson with 16%, Sen. John McCain with 12% and Mitt Romney with 11%.
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Romney, Giuliani In Tight Race In Both States. Both national parties may be sanctioning Michigan for moving up its presidential primary, but it is likely to still carry at least symbolic value. On the Democratic side, a new Strategic Vision poll shows Hillary Clinton topping the Democratic field with 42 percent, followed by Barack Obama at 26 percent and John Edwards at 10 percent, with the rest of the field at 7 percent or less. The survey of 1200 likely voters was conducted October 5-7, prior to the withdrawal by Edwards and Obama (but not Clinton) from the ballot there. The race is much tighter on the GOP side, where Rudy Giuliani leads with 24 percent, followed closely by Mitt Romney, who has extensive family ties to the state, with 20 percent. Fred Thompson runs 3rd with 15 percent, followed by John McCain at 10 percent and the rest of field at 5 percent or less.
In Nevada, Clinton is also the dominant candidate, receiving the backing of 51 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in a new American Research Group poll out this morning. Trailing far behind are Edwards with 14 percent and Obama with 11 percent. Bill Richardson, who has made the state and its large Hispanic population a focus of his campaign, is backed by just 4 percent. On the GOP side, Romney is on top with 38 percent, dogged by Giuliani at 35 percent. McCain is in 3rd with just 8 percent, followed by Fred Thompson at 5 percent.
Facing an increasing deficit in public opinion polls, Barack Obama is starting to go after his chief rival. The Chicago Tribune reports it "may be bye-bye Mr. Nice Guy for" Obama, "who said Thursday that he is opening the 'next phase' of his campaign and plans to more pointedly and aggressively go after frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton." On CNN, Obama said, "Now is the time where we're going to be laying a very clear contrast between myself and Senator Clinton. Not just on the past, not just on Iraq, but on moving forward." The Tribune adds an area "where Obama plans to further challenge Clinton is on a recent Senate 'Sense of the Senate' vote that the United States should designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization."
The Los Angeles Times adds that Clinton's critics say her vote "could bring the nation closer to war with Iran." Obama "added his voice to the criticism, comparing Clinton's vote on the measure to the 'blank check' that he said she gave President Bush to wage war against Iraq." The Times paints this criticism, and similar words from Edwards, as attempts "to break her campaign momentum by reviving questions about her 2002 vote authorizing U.S. force in Iraq. ... Edwards and Obama see Clinton's Iran vote as an opening."
Obama said on CNN's The Situation Room that Clinton's vote to authorize the war in Iraq "speaks to her judgment and it speaks to my judgment. This was the most important foreign policy decision since the end of the Cold War. And when I stood up and opposed this war, I think I laid out a very specific case for why we shouldn't go in: that Saddam Hussein didn't pose an imminent threat; that we would be bogged down without an exit strategy; that it would cost us billions of dollars and thousands of lives and would distract us from the battle that had to be waged against al Qaeda."
The New York Daily News reports Obama "tore into front-runner Hillary Clinton with renewed vigor Thursday, deriding her 'flawed' judgment on the Iraq war and slamming her 'reckless' recent vote on Iran. Triggering rapid-fire shots at Clinton -- with a newspaper column, a Web ad and a national TV interview -- Obama launched a new phase of combat in his fight to erase Clinton's poll lead."
The AP reports John Edwards "says a tabloid story that he had an extramarital affair is untrue." Asked about "the National Enquirer report," Edwards said, "The story is false. It's completely untrue, ridiculous." The AP adds the "supermarket newspaper reported that the former North Carolina senator had an affair with a woman who worked on his campaign. It did not identify the woman, nor did it name the source of the information for its report." In a blog posting on the website of the Los Angeles Times, Andrew Malcolm also writes that Edwards denied the National Enquirer report that he had been "caught in a shocking mistress scandal," quoting him, "I've been in love with the same woman for 30-plus years, and as anybody who's been around us knows, she's an extraordinary human being, warm, loving, beautiful, sexy and as good a person as I have ever known. So the story's just false." Malcolm continues to note a Huffington Post "article and photograph about a woman named Rielle Hunter, also known as Lisa Druck," which suggests that the Edwards campaign cut ties with the filmmaker who had generated a number of "webisodes" about Edwards after having met him in a bar.
Adding a bit of interest to the story is a blog posting on the website of The Politico, where Ben Smith writes of the Enquirer, "What the tabloid's readers, in politics and out, may not know is that a key owner of the Enquirer is a prominent New York investment banker and one of Hillary Clinton's key backers, Roger Altman. Altman was an official in the first Clinton administration, and his name is often mentioned as a possible Clinton Treasury Secretary."
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Jay Leno: "I love this. Mitt Romney said the other night at the debates that he's the one of all the candidates who is the most optimistic about the future. Well, there's a shock. Rich white guy with $200 million. What is he so happy about?"
Jay Leno: "Republican presidential candidate Sam Brownback said today he will drop out of the race if he doesn't finish at least fourth in the Iowa caucuses. Fourth. You have to admire a guy who is aiming that high."
Jay Leno: "Turkey has recalled their ambassador to the US over a big political dispute. And again, President Bush doesn't understand these issues. Today, he said he's worried this dispute could linger over Thanksgiving and then, no turkey."
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