President Bush is likely to veto appropriations bills passed by the Democratic Congress over what the White House calls excessive spending. While most analysts believe Bush has chosen to make spending an issue in the last year of his presidency to rally the GOP base, commentators are suggesting the strategy could well backfire. Instead, they say, Bush's hard line against spending could split members of his own party. This morning, the Washington Times reports the President's "veto of a Democrat-sponsored children's health bill, and veto threats against 11 of 12 spending bills, have failed to energize the conservative base this year. Potential political momentum has been slowed by the Republican Party's own fiscal recklessness in the past." The AP says "more and more" Republicans "are deserting" Bush "on domestic issues sure to figure in 2008 contests." Bush "is trying to reach out to the party's base and re-establish his credentials as a fiscal conservative." But "economic and libertarian-minded Republican conservatives suggest Bush's overtures are too little too late to help a despondent Republican party bracing for the possibility that the White House will end up in Democratic hands."
The Los Angeles Times reports "Congressional Democrats have found an unexpected ally in their budget showdown with...Bush: Republicans." Democrats "will need GOP support if they are to override Bush's promised vetoes," so they "were delighted last week when Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.) took to the Senate floor complaining about the president's proposed $1.6-billion cut in aid to state and local law enforcement at a time when violent crime is on the rise." And Roll Call reports, "Fresh divisions among Senate Republicans have emerged over their leaders' and the White House's handling of the State Children's Health Insurance Program, with a number of rank-and-file lawmakers complaining that the party lacks a comprehensive, coordinated strategy to beat back attacks from Democrats and aligned liberal groups."
In an indication of the thorny political situation facing the White House, efforts by the President and top aides to float an SCHIP compromise are falling flat. Democrats are confident, it appears, that they hold the upper hand in the PR battle, and are in no mood to cut a deal and see the issue go away. The AP reported over the weekend President Bush "signaled a willingness Saturday to spend more than what he had recommended for" SCHIP, but "provided no specifics on how much higher he would go." The Washington Times says it "was the president's first public gesture of a possible compromise with the Democrat-controlled Congress." The Los Angeles Times noted that Bush's veto "led one Democratic lawmaker to call the president 'Ebenezer Scrooge' last week, while a GOP pollster noted that 'it will take some superb communications to persuade voters that the White House really is on the side of children's health.'"
The AP reported Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said Bush "would be willing to provide more than the $5 billion increase over five years that he first proposed," but in a "warning to Democratic leaders who have pledged to stick with their $35 billion increase, Leavitt said Bush would not waver despite attempts to override his veto last week." The Washington Post reports Speaker Nancy Pelosi "said yesterday that Democrats are fewer than 20 votes short of overriding a presidential veto and expanding SCHIP," adding "her caucus will work over the next two weeks 'to try to peel off' about 14 Republicans to move closer to achieving that goal."
Fox News' Special Report, meanwhile, reported last night, "The question is whether the Democrat-run Congress will have enough votes to override the President's veto of the sizable expansion of a children's health insurance program." The President "said he could go for a small expansion, so why can't the White House and Congress make a deal?" Bush and his aides "spent the weekend saying make us an offer, please."
The Washington Times reports House Democratic leaders "say they won't bow to Republican pressure to scale back a health care plan for low-income children, despite the Bush administration's willingness to seek a compromise." The New York Times reports Democrats "believe they have Republicans -- short on campaign cash, contending with a spurt of retirements and quarreling -- on the run over the legislation."
Pelosi Prays For Bush To Change Policies The Politico notes Speaker Pelosi "said Sunday that she prays for President Bush to change his policies 'all the time,' and has specifically prayed for him to sign legislation boosting heath insurance coverage for children." On Fox News Sunday, Pelosi said, "First of all, I pray for President Bush all the time, and I pray especially hard that he would sign the children's health bill because it's so important for America's children. I pray that he makes the right decisions for the American people."
The AP reports Democrats today plan to unveil legislation that would require the Justice Department "to reveal to Congress the details of all electronic surveillance conducted without court orders since Sept. 11, 2001, including the so-called Terrorist Surveillance Program." Meanwhile, the New York Times says on the front page that congressional Democrats now "appear ready to make concessions that could extend some crucial powers given to the National Security Agency," reflecting "the reality confronting the Democrats. Although willing to oppose the White House on the Iraq war, they remain nervous that they will be called soft on terrorism if they insist on strict curbs on gathering intelligence."
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The AP reports the federal government "registered a budget deficit of $161 billion for the just-completed fiscal year, the Congressional Budget office estimated Friday. The 2007 deficit figure represents considerable improvement over the $248 billion deficit posted last year." At "1.2 percent of gross domestic product, the fiscal picture is the best it's been since 2001, the last year the government ran a budget surplus." The Wall Street Journal says in an editorial that CBO is "still forecasting a balanced budget in 2010, but if Congress gets its way on spending and taxes, all of this progress will be short-lived."
Coverage of the killing of Iraqi civilians by the private contractor Blackwater has dominated news from the war there in recent days. The controversy has lingered on during a time of relative calm in the strife-worn country. That has led some observers to suggest the media are focusing on the story in the absence of worse news. In the latest developments, Iraqi authorities have asked the US to end contracts with the firm and compensate the families of the 17 victims of the September 16th incident. The AP reports Iraqi authorities "want the U.S. government to sever all contracts in Iraq with Blackwater USA within six months. They also want the firm to pay $8 million in compensation to families of each of the 17 people killed when its guards sprayed a traffic circle with heavy machine gun fire last month." A second AP story recounts the September 16th incident, while the CBS Evening News says the FBI is "still conducting its own investigation, but CBS News has found the Iraqi witness accounts of September 16 are remarkably consistent."
Over the weekend, the CBS Evening News reported that in what "seems like a vote of no confidence in Blackwater," Secretary of State Rice "ordered cameras installed on vehicles, recordings made of radio communications and a State Department security agent assigned to every diplomatic convoy." The Los Angeles Times reports the State Department had "overlooked repeated warnings from U.S. diplomats in the field" that private security contractors "were endangering Iraqi civilians and undermining U.S. efforts to win support from the population, according to current and former U.S. officials."
ABC World News reported "special agents will now accompany Blackwater convoys and video cameras will be mounted in their vehicles to better monitor Blackwater activities." NBC Nightly News also reported the story, which was covered by wire and print sources such as the AP, AFP, Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Washington Times, and the Los Angeles Times. The Los Angeles Times, meanwhile, reported in a front page story that Blackwater guards "operate with virtual impunity as they tear through crowded city streets. The unmarked convoys push slow-moving vehicles out of their way, fire at anyone who is perceived as a threat, and make it clear their priority is to protect their high-profile wards."
Meanwhile, the AP says the State Department "may have withheld critical information from the Pentagon about" Andrew Moonen, a Blackwater employee fired after he shot and killed a security guard for one of Iraq's vice presidents while intoxicated, "a misstep that allowed the man to find work in the Middle East two months after" the alleged killing.
The controversy has spurred investigation into Blackwater in the US, particularly in the House. The New York Times profiled Blackwater founder Erik Prince, "a former member of the Navy Seals and the scion of a fabulously wealthy, deeply religious family that is enmeshed in Republican Party politics." Prince and his "family have given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Republican candidates and other conservative and religious causes, records show."
Britain To Withdraw Half Its Iraq Troops ABC World News reported British Prime Minister Gordon Brown "announced that Britain will remove half its troops from Iraq by next spring leaving a contingent of 2,500 British soldiers." The AP and the Los Angeles Times report the story, with the latter noting the move "falls short of growing calls in Britain for a full troop withdrawal." The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, and USA Today reported on the story.
Under the headline "Even the British are leaving Iraq," the Los Angeles Times editorializes, "The 'coalition of the willing' is over. One by one, its members have ceded the bloodstained ground to the battling Iraqis and the unyielding US president." The US "had always exaggerated the strength of the coalition," but "Britain is our special ally, and so its decision to bail out is momentous."
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A new Iowa caucus poll out over the weekend shows Hillary Clinton vaulting to first place. The Des Moines Register poll of 399 likely Iowa caucus-goers taken October 1-3 shows Clinton leading the Democrats with 29%, followed by John Edwards, 23%, and Barack Obama, 22%. The remainder of the field is in single digits. Previous polls had shown a much tighter race.
Analysts Say Rivals Need To Stop Clinton In Iowa NBC Nightly News asked, "How does New Year's Eve in Iowa sound? That's because it sounds like those caucuses would be held on January 3. That could also be the last chance that Hillary Clinton's Democratic opponents have to stop her march toward the nomination. She's the candidate to beat, surging ahead in national polls and now for the first time taking a six-point lead in Iowa, according to the influential 'Des Moines Register' poll." Jeff Zeleny, The New York Times: "Iowa this year more than perhaps any other year before is really going to define the race coming out of the starting gate. The first of the year, the first week of the year. It is going to answer a lot about who the Democratic nominee is going to be." John Edwards "has been practically living in Iowa, but has dropped in the latest Iowa polls. That's why he has been sharpening his attacks on the frontrunner, knowing that New Year's in Iowa could be his last stand."
U.S. News and World Report reports from Iowa that Clinton and Obama, "both awash in cash, and former Sen. John Edwards, who has far less in the bank but has spent four years courting voters here, have poured time, sweat, and money into Iowa since the spring. ... The stakes in Iowa are always high. But this year, with Clinton solidifying an aura of inevitability with big leads in new national polls and top third-quarter fundraising totals, they are monumental. If Clinton takes an Iowa win into the primary in New Hampshire, where she has a double-digit lead, and then on to other primary states where she's also atop the polls, the White House dreams of Edwards and Obama could wither."
On the NBC Nightly News, MSNBC Hardball host Chris Matthews said, "You see the candidates moving their whole operation to Iowa. I think for John Edwards and Barack Obama and for Joe Biden they know they have to do really well in Iowa, if not win, to have a real chance. Hillary Clinton a little less on the table. She can survive a loss, if she has to."
Good news for Mitt Romney, and bad news for Rudy Giuliani in a new poll. A Des Moines Register poll of 405 likely Iowa GOP caucus goers taken October 1-3 shows Romney leading the GOP field with 29%, followed by Fred Thompson, 18%; Mike Huckabee, 12%; Giuliani, 11%; and John McCain, 7%.
ABC World News reported on Sunday night, "A new poll out of Iowa that shows that Mitt Romney is still number one in Iowa, three months away from the Iowa caucus, but number two is now Fred Thompson and that's interesting because a lot of reporters have been saying of late that Thompson has been rusty on the stump." ABC's Mark Halperin added, "He certainly hasn't gotten rave reviews from the press but his campaign has said voters are responding -- 18% his first showing in the poll. He's just gotten in the race, that's pretty good and it may show he is in a position to do better in Iowa than people expected. That could help him down the road. That's a big development and Mayor Giuliani, the national leader, dropping in that same poll."
The Washington Post reports, "Giuliani's weakness in Iowa is twofold. First is his support for abortion rights. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said his position on abortion was a major factor in their decision not to support him. But Giuliani also has stopped campaigning in Iowa -- or at least has not been here since early August." Mike Huckabee, "who lacks the resources and the celebrity status of the other candidates, appears poised to embarrass several of them in January. Huckabee was virtually tied with Giuliani on the question of who would truly be the best president among the Republican candidates, and he remains the intriguing dark horse in the race -- someone whose appeal in Iowa could further shake up a contest in which none of the candidates has been able to take control."
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The AP reports that tonight's GOP debate in Dearborn, Michigan is supposed to focus on Michigan "and its troubled economy, but it's likely to be used by the nine candidates to push their own ideas for economic growth. ... Michigan leads the nation in unemployment, its 7.4 percent August rate far above the nation's 4.6 percent rate. The state remains the national center for the auto industry, even though it has lost 34 percent of its auto jobs in the past five years, dropping from 275,200 in August 2002 to 181,100 in August 2007, according to the U.S Labor Department. ... The debate 'helps to put Michigan's concerns on the table,' said Craig Ruff of Public Sector Consultants, a Lansing think tank. He expects other regional issues, such as the protection of Great Lakes water, to be a hot topic during the debate." The Detroit Free Press adds that political analyst Denise DeCook "suggests the first candidate to get to the heart of Michigan's struggles may hold an advantage here, where the race looks like a wide-open four-way contest. 'Iowa and New Hampshire have for years been able to press candidates to be very specific about the issues important to them,' said DeCook of Marketing Resource Group, a Lansing-based Republican consulting firm. 'I don't think it's asking too much of any presidential candidate to be specific about what's helpful to Michigan.'"
All Eyes On Thompson The debate is the first for Fred Thompson, and is expected to be a major test for him. The Washington Post reports in a front page story that in his "month-old quest for the White House," Thompson "has already endured withering criticism from evangelical leader James Dobson, who observed that the former 'Law & Order' star and onetime senator from Tennessee 'has no passion, no zeal and no apparent 'want-to.'" Old "friends in Hollywood have been no kinder," and "after helping to create huge expectations for Thompson's late entry into the Republican race, the Washington establishment has proclaimed itself underwhelmed by his early performance." At the Dearborn debate, "much of the focus will be on the former actor and whether he can seize the moment, not only to distinguish himself from the rest of the field but also to rebut accusations that he is too lazy, too ill-prepared and too vague to be the GOP nominee."
However, another story out this morning suggests that little is expected of him. The Politico reports, "Has there ever been a major presidential candidate with lower expectations on the eve of his first debate than Fred Thompson? Though he is second in the national polls, the reviews of his campaigning thus far have been savage." At the two-hour debate on economic issues Tuesday in Dearborn, Mich., "sponsored by CNBC, MSNBC and The Wall Street Journal," all Thompson "has to do to win is to exceed (very low) expectations." If Fred Thompson "gives an unexpectedly good performance Tuesday -- if he is reasonably bright and energetic -- he could jump to the head of the pack. But if he comes across as an ignoramus and a slacker, it could be the end of his campaign."
A major leader of the Christian Right last night lashed out at Rudy Giuliani, and suggested that his organization would be better off with Hillary Clinton as a candidate than the former New York Mayor. Asked on Fox News' Hannity and Colmes about the possibility that a third-party candidacy by a social conservative would result in a "Clinton landslide," Dr. James Dobson said, "We're very concerned about the implications of a Hillary Clinton presidency. ... 19 years ago, in 1988, I came to Washington and there were 400,000 people at the Washington monument and I stood up there on that day" and "said I pledge hereby never for the rest of my life to vote for anyone who would kill innocent babies. That's been my life, that's been my belief. ... I can't now abandon that because we've got two bad choices here." Dobson went on to say that Rudy Giuliani "has a terrible record in New York of appointing judges. He appointed some of the worst possible judges. And then there are so many other issues, the marriage issue, his personal moral...umm...background. He says he's a Catholic and yet he says I will not be guided by the Catholic Church. ... He has never said he repudiated Roe v. Wade. He's never said it's bad law." Later in the Hannity and Colmes interview Dobson predicted that if Giuliani is elected "the pro-life and pro-family movement is gone. If it's Hillary, as bad as she is, there will be a mobilization to fight what she's trying to do. If he is put in office by conservatives and by those who are pro-life and pro-marriage and pro-family, I'm afraid we will not recover from it."
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Jay Leno: "Sen. John McCain reported $6 million in new campaign contributions in the last quarter. It seemed like good news to him until he realized it was one of those fake checks you get in the mail. You know, from those people who prey on the elderly? Yeah. Not good."
Jay Leno: "And what the I.N.S. is calling the largest sweep of its kind ever, agents arrested 1,300 immigrants in L.A. and deported 600 of them. You know, I wondered why I couldn't find a clerk at Wal-Mart today."
Jay Leno: "Today is Columbus Day. ... Or as Native Americans call it, Illegal Immigration Day."
Jay Leno: "The US military is now targeting al Qaeda's internet capabilities. Apparently, al Qaeda's always trying to recruit new members on the internet. They hook up on something called jihadharmony.com."
David Letterman: "Hillary Clinton says although she supported Columbus going into America, she didn't have any idea he would stay indefinitely."
Conan O'Brien: "During a recent speech, President Bush said, this is a quote, 'My job is a decision-making job. As a result, I have made a lot of decisions.' Apparently, Bush's decision that day was to write his own speech."
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