Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Dems' Iraq Strategy Loses Key Ally

Retiring Sen. John Warner, an influential member of the GOP caucus, said yesterday that he is "reconsidering" his support for an amendment authored by fellow Virginian Democratic Sen. Jim Webb. The measure, which would require that all troops be guaranteed a period of stateside service equal to the time they spend in Iraq. As the Washington Post notes, Democrats "view Webb's amendment as a way to skirt the deadline issue while still effectively limiting combat operations by making fewer troops available."

Warner's potential defection, media analysts say this morning, could effectively doom the legislation which needs the support of additional Republicans to overcome an expected filibuster. Warner's move is said to have been spurred by conversations he had with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. According to the Wall Street Journal, Webb's amendment "has been widely seen as perhaps the best shot Democrats have of gathering enough bipartisan support to overcome Senate procedural obstacles and make a real dent in the Bush Administration's Iraq policy." In an interview yesterday, Warner "said he is 'reconsidering his position' in light of the administration's willingness to move closer to him on expediting some reduction in US troop levels this year in Iraq." Similarly, the New York Times reports that Warner's "potential change of heart...could sap momentum from the push by Democrats to win the 60 votes they need to secure passage of the plan." In July, Warner voted for the Webb proposal. The Times notes that even if Warner does end up voting for the amendment once again, Democrats still "need to win over at least three more Republicans." GOP Sen. Susan Collins, a supporter of the Webb proposal, "said she believed opposition from Mr. Warner would make it difficult if not impossible for Democrats to pick up the Republican votes needed to prevent a filibuster."

The Hill, however, in an article titled, "Webb's Iraq Bill Inches Closer To 60," reports four additional Senate Republicans "signaled Tuesday that they may vote for" the amendment. They GOP senators referenced are Lamar Alexander, George Voinovich, Lisa Murkowski and Elizabeth Dole. In a related piece, the Washington Post reports that moderate Republicans in Congress "are facing a tough choice: Stand by President Bush or run for their political lives." The Post adds that for many conservative Republicans, "the coming showdowns are the fights they have been waiting for. But even they are reluctant to say they are standing with the president."

Reid Tries To Calm Anti-War Activists The Politico reports Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid met with "leaders of the anti-Iraq-war movement" in New York yesterday, in "his latest effort to reassure this increasingly restive group that Democrats are doing everything they can to end the war." Reid "tried to explain his limitations and pleaded with anti-war leaders to keep their energies focused on Republicans, not Democrats," though "some activists are urging that Democrats who are not aggressive enough in confronting Bush on Iraq themselves be challenged with primary opponents or third-party candidacies in 2008."

In a change of strategy apparently intended to please the Democrats' anti-war base, the Washington Post reports that Reid, who had "been willing to make the troop withdrawal a 'goal' in order to attract GOP support [that] never materialized," announced yesterday he will instead "push for a firm deadline" of June 2008. Reid is quoted as saying, "It's all definite timelines." The AP reports that when asked "why Democrats won't soften the deadline," Reid "said he doesn't have confidence Republicans are willing to challenge Bush on the war." Reid is quoted as saying, "I think they've decided definitely they want this to be the Senate Republicans' war, not just Bush's. They're jealous."

The pressure on the Democratic leadership is now coming from both sides. According to The Hill, Rep. Neil Abercrombie, a Democratic moderate who has been trying to build bipartisan support for his Iraq plan, "was expecting to go to the Democratic Caucus on Tuesday to complain that liberals are threatening to support primary challenges against Democratic centrists because of their positions on Iraq." But "when he found out the issue wasn't on the agenda, he walked out." The Hill says Abercrombie's "anger highlights the rising tensions within the Democratic Caucus." Meanwhile, Roll Call reports that "a small band of moderate House Democrats and Republicans" is working on bipartisan Iraq legislation "that would avoid hard timelines for withdrawal." Reps. Mike Castle (R) and John Tanner (D) "have drafted a letter backing a series of proposals from the Iraq Study Group aimed at shifting the Iraq mission and incorporating such issues as ensuring leave for soldiers after they return home."

Post-Petraeus, Americans Of Two Minds

Polls out since Gen. Petraeus' Hill testimony seem to contain contradictory findings. Under the headline "Poll: Public Not Swayed By Petraeus," USA Today notes "a Pew Research Center poll taken last week. In that poll, 57% of those who heard something about Petraeus' report approved of his recommendations, but just 16% said his testimony made them more optimistic about the war." Similarly, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday "found essentially no shift in views on whether US forces are likely to win the war -- two-thirds predict they won't -- and if the United States should set a firm timetable to remove troops. ... The number of Americans who say it was a mistake to send troops to Iraq ticked up to 58% from 54% in the USA TODAY Poll a week earlier." And yet, in the same USA TODAY/Gallup Poll "forty-three percent say Petraeus' plan would withdraw 'the right amount' of troops; 36% say it withdraws too few; 9% says it withdraws too many. Similarly, 42% say the plan would withdraw troops at the right pace; 33% call it too slow; 12% call it too fast."

Meanwhile, the US News Political Bulletin has learned that internal polling conducted by the Winston Group finds somewhat surprising support for the Republican positions on Iraq, while also charting a wariness with an undefined continuation of the Iraq war. Asked to choose between "President Bush who says that we need to keep the same level of troops in Iraq as long as the generals recommend to finish the job" or the Democratic position: "Some members of Congress who say we need to begin the immediate withdrawal of troops," 43% of respondents overall backed the GOP position, while 52% backed the Democratic position.

However, when the proposition is more specific, support flips back to the Republican position. Asked, "If General Petraeus asks for the troop level to remain in place for another nine months, would you approve or disapprove this proposal," 54% approve it; 43% disapprove. Independents again track the overall response, with 53% approving the proposal and 43% disapproving it. 80% of Republicans back the idea while 67% of Democrats oppose it.

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Democrats Send "Mixed Signals" On Mukasey

Attorney General-designate Michael B. Mukasey began making the rounds on Capitol Hill yesterday, meeting with key senators as he begins the confirmation process. But Senate Democrats continued to send "mixed messages," says the Washington Post, on whether they seek to use the nomination as leverage in their disputes with the White House over investigations into the Justice Department. The Post notes both Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick J. Leahy and Sen. Charles E. Schumer said Tuesday that "they are hopeful and optimistic that the nomination will be successful," but the Democrats "have not specified what they are demanding the White House turn over, nor have they said whether Mukasey's confirmation is contingent on those demands being met."

Roll Call reports Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin said Democrats "were unlikely to hold up hearings over the document issue. 'I don't think it's a deal-breaker for us to start [hearings], but if it's going to proceed quickly...we're going to need cooperation.'" But Durbin's comments "come in stark contrast to statements by...Leahy...and other Democrats on Monday, who warned a massive document dump by the White House would be needed before hearings could get under way."

The Hill, New York Times, AP and UPI, meanwhile, runs similar accounts of Mukasey's Hill visit, noting he was praised by senators of both parties. A front page story in the New York Times, meanwhile, notes Mukasey and Rudy Giuliani served together as Federal prosecutors in Manhattan and in private practice. But if Mukasey is confirmed, "he stands to lead the Justice Department at a time when prosecutors in the Southern District of New York are investigating a case with sensitive political implications for Mr. Giuliani," whether to indict "former police commissioner and [Giuliani] business partner, Bernard B. Kerik."

No US Representative For DC

The Washington Post reports Republican Senators filibustered a bill that would have granted the District of Columbia a full member of the House, as well as granting Utah another representative. Fifty-seven senators voted in favor, three short of the 60 needed to proceed. The Hill notes that eight Republican senators voted for the bill. The AP reports, "The procedural vote effectively killed the best chance in decades to win the District a full-fledged House member." The Los Angeles Times, New York Times and Washington Times run similar stories.

In an editorial, the Washington Post writes that the Senate "chose...to add another unconscionable chapter to that well-worn volume that could be titled 'The Second-Class Status of the People of the District of Columbia."

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Obama Lays Out Tax Plan

Sen. Barack Obama, whose economic address on Monday was heavily overshadowed by the release of "HillaryCare2.0," sought to regain the limelight yesterday with the release of his tax plan. The AP reports Obama "said Tuesday that he would take back tax breaks from monied interests to provide $80 billion annually in relief for workers, seniors and homeowners." Obama said "connected corporations and wealthy investors have benefited in the current tax code and it's time to give money back to the workers who fuel the U.S. economy." While his "plan was short on some specifics," Obama "said he would give 150 million workers a $500 payroll tax credit, expand relief on mortgage interest, eliminate income taxes for seniors making less than $50,000 and simplify returns so millions can file in less than five minutes." McClatchy adds that Obama's tax proposal "could save lower- and middle-class workers and seniors $500 to $1,500 a year by shifting more of the burden to well-off investors and corporations." Obama's "tax proposal held a populist appeal and offered more details than what Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton has so far proposed, but it didn't address the alternative minimum tax, which threatens to force higher taxes on 19 million middle-class American workers and their families unless it's changed."

The Washington Times adds that to pay for his tax cuts, Obama "proposed eliminating tax breaks for those making more than $250,000, or the top 2 percent of Americans, and increasing taxes on capital gains and dividends from the current 15 percent to as high as 28 percent."

The Washington Post reports it was Obama's "second economic speech in as many days," and he has "made confronting special interests and corporate lobbyists a core theme of his campaign, and he elaborated on it in his tax-cut proposal. Arguing that rich business interests, rather than market forces, have conspired to push for tax breaks, Obama said it is time to shift the tax burden away from the middle class." Under the headline, "Obama Proposes Tax Cuts for Middle Class and Elderly," the New York Times says that Obama "is seeking to cast himself as an advocate for working Americans, arguing against special interests that he says have contributed to a widening gap between the rich and the middle class and poor. He said the nation's 'social compact is starting to crumble.'" Also covering the speech this morning in detail are the Chicago Tribune, the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Hill.

Clinton On The Air With Ad Touting Health Care Plan

The New Hampshire Union Leader reports Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign "launched a new 30-second television ad in New Hampshire and Iowa today touting her new, $110 billion 'American Health Choices' plan." According to the Union Leader, "Her campaign's new ad tries to turn Clinton's failed attempt to bring government-run health care to the U.S. in 1994 into a positive. A voice-over says, 'She changed our thinking when she introduced universal health care to America.' The current plan, unlike the first one, Clinton said, is not a government-run system." The Washington Post says on its 'Channel '08' blog that the ad "smartly" builds on Clinton's message of having the experience to bring change.

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Thompson Flops In Florida

Fred Thompson is taking fire for a lack of preparation on the campaign trail, particularly in Florida, where he campaigned earlier this week. Fox News' Special Report reported last night that Thompson "stumbled on a handful of issues near and dear to Florida Republicans. Last week he said he couldn't remember details of the controversial Terri Schiavo case...and though most Floridians deeply oppose drilling for oil off Florida's delicate coast, Thompson refuses to rule it out." The AP adds that Thompson "seemed taken by surprise when asked Tuesday about oil drilling in the Everglades, apparently unaware it's been a major Florida issue. Before answering, he laughed at the question. 'Gosh, no one has told me that there's any major reserves in the Everglades, but maybe that's one of the things I need to learn while I'm down here,' Thompson said after talking over state issues with Gov. Charlie Crist." Rival Mitt Romney, also campaigning in Florida, "expressed surprise over the former senator's position. 'You're kidding?' said Romney. 'Let's take that off the table. We're not going to drill in the Everglades. There are certain places in America that are national treasures and the Everglades is one of those.'"

In his column for The Hill, Dick Morris renders a harsh verdict on the Thompson campaign, saying that he "is clearly in over his head! In both his fumbling pre-candidacy period and his hesitant, attenuated post-announcement campaign, he's given the clear impression that that he is ill-informed, inarticulate, badly briefed and downright lazy. ... Whatever the cause, the opening weeks of Thompson's candidacy are, perhaps, the least auspicious of any candidate's in recent history, and certainly the worst of the 2007-2008 electoral season."

Giuliani Ad Says He's Liberals' "Worst Nightmare"

The war between Rudy Giuliani and liberal advocacy group MoveOn.org continues to escalate. The Politico reports that Giuliani's campaign "is up with a radio ad in Iowa claming he is liberals' 'worst nightmare' -- an effort to get early voters to think ahead to November when they caucus in January. The spot, called 'Nightmare,' shows that last week's MoveOn.org ad bashing Army Gen. David Petraeus is the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans. 'MoveOn.org is the most powerful left-wing group in the country,' the ad, which is running statewide, intones. 'They spent millions electing anti-war liberals. And publicly brag how the Democratic Party is theirs -- bought and paid for. Why is MoveOn attacking Rudy Giuliani? Because he's their worst nightmare.' 'They know Rudy is a Republican who can beat the Democrats,' continues the narrator, in the style of a disaster movie voice-over. 'And they know, no matter what they say -- Rudy will never, ever back down.'" The Washington Post reports, "In response, MoveOn announced yesterday that it has doubled the amount it is spending on an anti-Giuliani television ad in Iowa, from $50,000 to $100,000, and will also run the ad nationally on CNN."

In addition to allowing him to engage in a high-profile battle with a group detested by the right, Giuliani's battle with MoveOn is also serving up a campaign cash windfall. The Hill reports that battle "is proving a boon to the presidential hopeful's coffers, according to a campaign official, but MoveOn insists the ads are leaving a negative mark. ... A Giuliani campaign official said Tuesday his colleagues had 'blasted' around another e-mail after MoveOn began targeting Giuliani in Iowa. 'It would be safe to say that they have certainly motivated individuals to donate and get involved in the campaign,' the official said." However, the campaign did not put a dollar figure on the new support.

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "In political news, Vice President Dick Cheney is very upset about the way General Petraeus has been treated by the Democrats. Vice President Cheney said it's horrible that people mock and insult a soldier. I'll be sure to pass that on to John Kerry when I see him."

Jay Leno: "And speaking of John Kerry, a University of Florida student was tasered after asking John Kerry about the 2000 election. Kerry was giving a speech, the kid got tasered. The cops tasered him. I believe this is the first time anyone has been electrified at a John Kerry speech, if I'm not mistaken."

Jay Leno: "In a new book, former Mexican President Vicente Fox says that George W. Bush's Spanish is at best grade school level. Unfortunately, so is his history, math, science."

Jay Leno: "President Bush has tapped retired Federal judge Michael Mukasey...to replace Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. Conservatives say Mukasey is a real law and order guy, to which Bush said, 'He was on that TV show, too?'"

Conan O'Brien: "Yesterday, you probably heard about this, Senator John Kerry was heckled while he was giving a speech. And the heckler had to be subdued with a taser gun. Yeah, when reached for comment, the man said being tasered in the chest was still better than sitting through an entire Kerry speech."

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