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Tuesday, February 14, 2012
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With Gen. David Petraeus' report on the situation in Iraq looming, Democrats appear to have decided on a new approach to the war, designed to find a unified position with GOP dissidents. The new strategy carries with it a huge concession: no longer will Democrats be demanding a firm deadline for a US pullout. That concession, in turn, carries a significant risk the alienation of the Democratic base, which is strongly opposed to the war. Media reports, however, suggest Democratic leaders have concluded they don't have enough support to continue their aggressive pre-recess strategy. The Politico, under the headline "Democrats Retreat On War End," calls the move a "strategic shift designed to win over Republican critics of the Iraq war." Democrats are instead "backing off demands for a firm withdrawal date for US. troops and instead are seeking a new bipartisan deal to end the military campaign." The Washington Post says in a front page story that there is a "brewing rebellion among moderate lawmakers from both parties, who see an opportunity to drive their leaders toward compromise."
The Washington Times reports, "Rank-and-file Democrats in Congress are criticizing the party's leaders for allowing the White House to sap momentum from the antiwar movement during the August recess. 'The White House is taking great advantage of the Democrats not pushing back,' said Rep. Lynn Woolsey, California Democrat and co-founder of the antiwar Out of Iraq Caucus." The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, reports the new approach could expose the Democrats in particular to potentially harsh criticism from the party's left wing that they have abandoned the real fight to end the war now."
In the New York Times, liberal columnist Paul Krugman writes that he's "afraid" Democrats "will look at Gen. Petraeus's uniform and medals and fall into their usual cringe," although "the lesson of the past six years is that Republicans will accuse Democrats of being unpatriotic no matter what the Democrats do."
Jones Report A Partisan Rorschach Test The New York Times notes the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday received a "finely nuanced" report from retired Marine Gen. James L. Jones on the Iraqi security forces. Sens. John McCain and Hillary Clinton "reached totally opposite conclusions about it, in line with their different positions on the war." For McCain, "the report provided powerful support for his long-held position that it would be a mistake for Congress to set a firm deadline for withdrawing troops from Iraq." For Clinton, the commission's "finding that there had been little political progress in Iraq buttressed her view that a firm deadline was crucial." In the Washington Post, Dana Milbank writes, "Jones's conclusions were not so much contradictory as nuanced: The situation in Iraq is perilous though not hopeless; the current policy needs to change, yet a hasty retreat would make things worse." But "lawmakers don't do nuance very well. As is typical of the Iraq debate, they used the Jones report to justify their previous positions."
Most media accounts, however, say the report presented a negative picture of the situation in Iraq. The CBS Evening News reported, "Today on Capitol Hill, a panel of retired military officers recommended the US cut troop levels significantly next year to give Iraqi forces more control. However, the panel admitted the Iraqis won't be able to fully control their country anytime soon, not in the next 18 months." ABC World News also reported, "More than 19 billion dollars have been spent training Iraqi security forces. But the report says they will not be able to take control of Iraq in the next 12 to 18 months." The Financial Times headlines its story "US Advised To Cut Iraq Troops," and USA Today and Los Angeles Times run similar reports.
Gen. James Jones, meanwhile, said on PBS's NewsHour, "I think the commission came to the conclusion that the progress has been measured but uneven across the spectrum of the Iraqi security forces."
The Washington Post, meanwhile, reports "senior US military commanders in Iraq rejected" the "independent commission's recommendation yesterday to disband the 25,000-strong Iraqi national police force, saying that despite sectarian influences the force is improving and that removing it would create dangerous security vacuums in key regions of the country."
Anti-War Blogs Angry At McClatchy Report McClatchy reports, "A story by Pentagon Correspondent Nancy A. Youssef that we published on Sunday sparked a huge outcry in the blogosphere this week. Critics charged that the piece uncritically accepted the Bush administration's line that the surge of additional American troops to Iraq is working and that its statistical underpinning was flawed." McClatchy continues to note that US combat casualties fell in the months after the surge began, which "surprised many analysts, as Nancy wrote." Some "supporters of the surge credited the surge, and Nancy reported that, as well. After all, no one claimed to know precisely why the decline had taken place."
The Washington Post reports on its front page that Gen. Petraeus "has indicated a willingness to consider a drawdown of one brigade of between 3,500 and 4,500 US troops from Iraq early next year, with more to follow over the next months based on conditions on the ground, according to a senior US official." The New York Times also reports on its front page that Petraeus's view "is considered overly cautious by some other senior military officials and some members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said." But "they said it reflected his concern that the security gains made so far in Baghdad, Anbar Province and other areas were fragile and easily reversed."
The US News Political Bulletin, meanwhile, has learned some House and Senate members, fresh from August tours of Iraq, believe that Gen. David Petraeus will move more boldly to pull back and withdraw troops from the front lines when he presents his review of the "surge" this month. Among the bigger moves, top aides to lawmakers tell the Political Bulletin, is the expectation that Petraeus will suggest that American troops hand over control of up to half of Iraq's 18 provinces -- those where the sectarian violence is minimal. Among the other strategy changes he suggested during the summer meetings with visiting lawmakers: Moving swiftly to reduce troop levels to pre-surge numbers, or about 125,000-130,000; pulling those troops back from the front lines; eventually turning the US force into a small group that trains Iraqi troops and police and also hunts for terrorists.
However, Petraeus indicated that US troops will remain in Iraq indefinitely. Aides to lawmakers came away from the trips believing that Petraeus felt that there is no military solution to settling the current problems in Iraq and that it was up to the feuding political alliances to handle the divisions, but that US troops, when asked, can help on the security side. Also, they believe that Petraeus thinks that the troops have been stretched too thin and that is part of his desire to reduce levels in Iraq.
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A Federal judge on Thursday struck down a portion of the Patriot Act that controls the FBI's access to records kept by Internet providers. The CBS Evening News reported the judge ruled "investigators must have a court's approval before they can order Internet providers to turn over records. The decision could eliminate one of the FBI's most widely used investigative tools." The AP called the ruling "a major victory" for the ACLU, reporting that the group "had challenged the law on behalf of an Internet service provider, complaining that the law allowed the FBI to demand records without the kind of court supervision required for other government searches." AFP says the Judge "ruled that Congress overstepped its authority when it allowed the Federal Bureau of Investigation to keep the requests secret." The Washington Post, New York Times and Los Angeles Times, among other media outlets, also report the story this morning.
The AP reports this morning that Rep. Mike Simpson, Idaho's senior Republican congressman, "called on Sen. Larry Craig today to make it clear he will leave his seat by Sept. 30, as GOP leaders sought to remove any doubt that the embattled senator will resign within weeks." Craig's "chief spokesman said his boss had dropped virtually all notions of trying to finish his third term, which ends in early 2009. But prominent Republicans in Washington and Idaho wanted a firm deadline in hopes of putting the controversy behind them." The Christian Science Monitor notes the "swift move to closure in the Craig case is a sharp contrast to the tack that Republican leaders have taken with two other GOP senators recently caught up in investigations of wrongdoing." The Monitor notes that neither Sen. David Vitter, who was ensnared in the DC madam scandal, nor Sen. Ted Stevens, whose house was searched by the FBI in a corruption investigation, have faced fallout from their GOP colleagues. In an attempt "to draw a bright line explaining such differences, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told reporters this week that the difference is that Craig pleaded guilty, while Senator Stevens is still under investigation and Senator Vitter has not been charged with a crime."
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Fred Thompson's first day on the campaign trail generated very heavy media attention. Much of the coverage depicts Thompson's message yesterday as an attempt to capture conservative voters, with some reports suggesting the former senator has fashioned his campaign after Ronald Reagan's in 1980. As the Des Moines Register notes in a website report, Thompson is also attempting to run as an outsider, telling his audience "his later-starting campaign was that of a citizen called to service, not a career politician's." Thompson "has his work cut out, entering a campaign for the caucuses - roughly four months away - where candidates have been campaigning and organizing for more than six months." But he "has rated as high as second place in recent surveys of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, having set foot in the politically buzzing state only once since floating his name as a potential candidate." Thompson's campaign manager Bill Lacy "declined to say how well he expected Thompson to finish in the caucuses, but acknowledged the candidate had ground to make up in early nominating states."
The CBS Evening News (9/6, story 6, 0:25, Smith, 7.66M), meanwhile, briefly noted that "Thompson, the former actor and senator, hit the campaign trail the day after announcing he's running for the Republican presidential nomination. He vowed to make up for his late start by emphasizing conservative themes." NBC Nightly News reports that in Iowa, "Thompson shook plenty of hands and made the rounds with Iowa local media, repeatedly defining himself as a common sense conservative." Scott Reed, Republican strategist: "Party activists are excited about him getting in this race. But they're not going to give him all month to show them that he can satisfy and be a true blue conservative." Thompson "is also in a race to raise cash and build an organization fast, to prove he is a true contender."
Long Island Newsday reports that "Thompson pitched himself Thursday as a common-sense country lawyer running for president to keep the nation safe and preserve its down-home values, a one-two punch aimed at knocking Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney from atop the polls. ... 'Radical Islam has declared war on us,' Thompson said, declaring the need to stand firm in Iraq and elsewhere. 'If we show weakness and division, we will pay a heavy price for it in the future.' It's a strategy that tries to go Giuliani one better -- by convincing Republicans that Thompson is just as tough on terrorism, but with values and beliefs that conservatives say Giuliani lacks, on abortion, gun control and other issues. ... Thompson also is trying to take on Romney...by contrasting his own long-standing conservative beliefs to Romney's 'evolving' position on abortion and other issues."
The New York Post reports that "in a shot at two other rivals who are leading the polls but have been accused of flip-flopping on key issues -- Giuliani and Romney -- Thompson said he had held 'the same commonsense conservative positions' throughout his political career. 'This is what I believe and have believed and will continue to believe. I haven't changed,' Thompson said."
The Boston Globe reports, "Thompson senior adviser Rich Galen said that in the buildup to the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont, was all but crowned the likely Democratic victor, but Dean faded as questions about his electability rose. ... Thompson's immediate strategy is designed to build momentum quickly from a series of carefully staged events on television, the Internet, and on the campaign trail that the campaign hopes will be broadcast repeatedly so that they reach a potentially huge audience. 'It's all about leverage,' said Galen."
Questions Remain About Bid However, questions remain about the viability of his bid. This morning, media analysts suggest Thompson's message is not specific enough and others continue to think he has entered the race too late. McClatchy, for example, reports "some" in the audience thought the speech "was short on specifics." The AP says "signs of an evolving campaign showed as Thompson's chief spokesman from early on, Mark Corallo, became the fourth communications aide to part ways with him in a month." USA Today reports the audience's "response to Thompson's conversational, rambling remarks was friendly but not frenzied." Also, "volunteers manned tables to take down names and contact information -- critical for the task of delivering supporters to Iowa's caucuses next winter -- but the campaign paraphernalia available was limited to bumper stickers. There were none of the biographical pamphlets or position papers routine at such events."
The New York Times reports Thompson "painted himself as a reformer, Washington outsider and watchdog, a true conservative with small-town values." But "while delivering catchy phrases that drew easy applause, he offered no details about how a Thompson administration would seek to achieve its goals." The Chicago Tribune says Thompson's speech was "notable for its lack of verve," and the Washington Times, in a story titled "Late Entry Could Doom Thompson," reports "analysts say as a first-time national candidate, he may have entered too late." Republican consultant Sal Russo tells the Times, "It even took Ronald Reagan his third try in 1980 before he could win the nomination."
The New York Daily News reports that Thompson "faces the challenge of meeting the great expectations of supporters who view his showbiz and conservative credentials as Reagan's second coming -- minus the leading man looks and hair. 'I don't think it's going to be easy,' said analyst Arthur Sanders of Drake University in Des Moines. 'It's harder even than it was six weeks ago, but that's not to say it's insurmountable. All the polls show dissatisfaction on the Republican side with all the candidates.'"
Not all reviews of Thompson's first day of campaigning are negative, however. The Politico reports Thompson "seeks to be the same strong, paternal figure that fits his baritone drawl, 6-foot-6 frame and acting r©," and "early reviews are good."
The Washington Post reports, "Thompson begins at a big disadvantage in Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses, trailing" Mitt Romney "and several others in establishing an organization here, but his advisers believe it is a contest he cannot skip. They plan to target the conservative base here, a group that has consistently expressed frustration with its presidential choices this year. 'A lot of conservative voters have been holding their nose a little bit throughout the course of this campaign, trying to find a place where they were comfortable,' one senior Thompson adviser said. 'Our message to them is 'You can breathe easier now.'"
Reagan Mantle May Not Be Perfect Fit. The New York Times, under the headline "For Thompson, Goal Is To Don Reagan Mantle," says "Thompson is certainly conservative, and has been throughout his public life -- particularly on the question of federalism, the size of government, tax cuts and his unwavering support for the war in Iraq." Moreover, "biographically and stylistically, Mr. Thompson, another former actor trying to become president, recalls the easygoing manner that Reagan used to advocate conservative solutions to the nation's challenges, as he made clear with his announcement speech in Des Moines on Thursday." Yet "in some notable ways, Mr. Thompson is different from Reagan, and he has at times deviated from the orthodox conservatism that Reagan, after his death and nearly two decades removed from his presidency, has come to represent." Thompson "has at times voted in support of affirmative action, at other times against it; Reagan's Justice Department consistently championed efforts to eliminate it. Mr. Thompson, a former trial lawyer, has voted against efforts to impose federal caps on punitive damages and lawyers' fees, a central part of the conservative agenda."
The Los Angeles Times reports that "the anti-tax group Club for Growth offered a reminder of Thompson's challenge in establishing his conservative credentials. It released a report on his Senate fiscal record that gave him high marks overall but with reservations. 'His fondness for Tennessee pork aside, Thompson consistently voted against increased spending and new government projects -- at times, one of only a handful of senators to do so,' said Pat Toomey, the group's president."
ABC News last night, like the New York Times, suggested that Thompson's Senate record may not be as conservative as it is widely believed. ABC World News reported, "In Des Moines, Iowa, this afternoon, Fred Thompson began auditioning for the role of ultimate leading man." Thompson was shown saying, "I am determined that we make the decisions that will leave us a stronger nation, a more prosperous nation, and a more united nation. And that's why I'm running for the presidency of the United States." Thompson, added ABC, "depicted himself as a conservative alternative to former governor Mitt Romney, former mayor Rudy Giuliani and Senator John McCain." Thompson: "I still have the same common sense, conservative beliefs that I did when I ran in 1994." But "Thompson, who has also served as a lawyer and lobbyist, is not universally beloved by the right." Richard Viguerie, conservative author: "There's a fair amount of rhetoric there. But in terms of action and results, we just don't see it. It's almost like he's gotten another Hollywood role where he's supposed to play a conservative." While Thompson's Senate record "is generally conservative," adds NBC, it is "not reliably so. And he seemed to pride himself on that. This 1996 memo titled 'Breaking from the Republican Pack,' obtained from Thompson's Senate archives, trumpets examples of his, 'legislative independence from 'the party line,' when he 'voted against the Republican majority.' But these days, on his way to the White House, Thompson sells himself as a reliable Republican."
USA Today reports Mike Huckabee told reporters "in a conference call" yesterday "that he is the 'authentic conservative' in the race, noting that Thompson once worked as a paid lobbyist for a family planning organization seeking to loosen an abortion regulation."
The saga of fugitive Democratic fundraiser Norman Hsu took an odd turn yesterday as he was brought back into custody. The AP reported, "Disgraced Democratic fundraiser Norman Hsu was arrested in Colorado late Thursday, after a judge issued an arrest warrant when he failed to show up for a court appearance related to a felony theft conviction." Hsu had been "scheduled to appear in court Wednesday to turn over his passport and ask a judge to cut in half the $2 million bail he posted last week when he turned himself in after spending 15 years on the lam from the theft conviction," but he "failed to show up at the bail reduction hearing and a judge issued a new arrest warrant for him." The Los Angeles Times adds Hsu "was on an eastbound Amtrak train about noon when he fell ill, and Amtrak personnel took him to St. Mary's Hospital in Grand Junction, Colo., a hospital spokesman said." There, he "was arrested by the FBI a few hours later on a federal charge of unlawful flight to avoid prosecution."
More information is starting to trickle out on Hsu's role as a Democratic fundraiser this morning. The Washington Post reports Hsu's "success at raising money had propelled him into the upper echelon of Democratic politics. In the past four years, Hsu raised more than $1.2 million for Democratic causes and candidates, including the DNC and the campaign of New York Gov. Eliot L. Spitzer." A person "directly familiar with Hillary Clinton's fundraising, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Hsu had raised 'in the hundreds of thousands of dollars' since January for Clinton's 2008 presidential bid."
Another Clinton Backer In Trouble With The Law. More bad news for a backer of Hillary Clinton's presidential bid this morning the New York Times reports that eleven current or former New Jersey public officials, including two members of the State Assembly, "were charged Thursday with taking thousands of dollars in bribes in exchange for promising municipal business to undercover officers posing as insurance brokers in the latest federal probe into New Jersey's rampant political corruption." Among those arrested by the FBI was Mayor Samuel Rivera of Passaic, "who resigned Thursday from a committee of mayors supporting Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential bid."
The New York Daily News reports Rivera "was on Clinton's Mayor's Council and her National Hispanic Leadership Council. Clinton's camp, still red-faced from the embarrassing runner taken by fugitive fund-raiser Norman Hsu a day earlier, quickly booted Rivera from the campaign's committees." In an earlier posting on the New York Times' "The Caucus" blog, Patrick Healy said the arrest of Rivera is "the latest legal embarrassment involving an ally of the Clinton campaign, coming only one day after a wealthy Clinton donor, Norman Hsu, missed his court date in a California fraud case and apparently disappeared."
The Raleigh News & Observer reported on its website that a new poll shows Fred Thompson "is out the gate strong in North Carolina." According to a Public Policy Polling survey of 645 likely GOP primary voters conducted Sept. 5, Thompson leads the Republican presidential field with 34%, followed by Rudy Giuliani with 16%, Mitt Romney with 13% and Sen. John McCain with 7%. Meanwhile, the Public Policy Polling survey of 451 likely Democratic primary voters shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading with 30%, followed by John Edwards with 28% and Sen. Barack Obama with 21%.
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Jay Leno: "Well, the Republicans had their 789th debate last night. The big issue, of course, was the war in Iraq, and the candidates were split over it. Some Republicans were in favor of it. The other Republicans were really, really in favor of it."
Jay Leno: "Last night on our show, Fred Thompson announced he strongly supports the war in Iraq. God, when are these Hollywood actors going to learn to keep their political opinions to themselves on talk shows?"
Jay Leno: "According to a new Pew Research poll, over 60% of people in the country of Jordan consider Americans to be rude. It's not that bad when you consider that over 100% of people from other Middle Eastern countries think Americans are Satan."
David Letterman: "Anybody see the Republican debate last night? You know a debate is dull when the most exciting guy there is Brit Hume."
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