Political Bulletin

CAMPAIGN NEWS

Clinton In Democrats' Sights At Debate

Seven Democratic candidates on Tuesday night clashed in a 96-minute debate sponsored by the AFL-CIO, held in Chicago's Soldier Field and moderated by MSNBC's Keith Olberman. Many of the candidates targeted Sen. Hillary Clinton, widely seen as the frontrunner, but Sen. Barack Obama also took fire for his recent foreign policy statements. The AP reports Democratic "rivals accused" Clinton "of being too cozy with lobbyists and Wall Street Tuesday, but the party's presidential front-runner portrayed herself as a champion of working people and commonsense policies, drawing cheers from a crowd of union activists." Obama "leveled some of the criticism but was forced to defend his own recent statements on Pakistan." Obama said "U.S. trade agreements have tilted against workers because 'corporate lobbyists' have had too much influence, a theme he has developed in recent days, especially when alluding to Clinton." The seven candidates also "praised organized labor lavishly, seeming to jockey to portray themselves as the most committed to the cause."

The Los Angeles Times reports the "top-tier Democratic presidential candidates used a testy debate" to cast Clinton "as beholden to powerful Washington lobbyists and too compromised to revamp healthcare and make changes the party wants to see once George W. Bush leaves office." The "repeated swipes at Clinton came amid new polling that shows her consolidating her advantage to the point that, in an eight-person field, she is drawing support from nearly a majority of voters." Clinton "professed bemusement and said it was poor tactics for Democrats to fight among themselves." USA Today says reports the Democrats "tangled...over Iraq, Pakistan and corporate influence while mostly agreeing on issues crucial to their union audience, such as trade deals and increased spending on infrastructure." Other papers, such as the New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post ran similar coverage.

Obama, Clinton Steal Edwards Union Thunder In an analysis for the AP, Jesse J. Holland writes, "This was supposed to be John Edwards' chance to shine, with 17,000 union members eager to be impressed, especially by a presidential candidate who has been actively courting labor support ever since his failed vice presidential run in 2004. But Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama used the AFL-CIO's Democratic presidential forum Tuesday night at Soldier Field to fend off their primary rivals hoping to move up in the polls, impress organized labor and maybe land an early primary endorsement."

Democrats Fail To Deliver "Sister Souljah Moment" In an analysis in The Politico, Roger Simon suggests that Democrats are not likely to "stand up to a major special interest group" in a "Sister Souljah" moment" during this election cycle, painting the candidates as having pandered to organized labor at the AFL-CIO forum, instead of "saying: 'Union demands for their members, while understandable, can make American goods more expensive and can drive American jobs overseas. Are you, as union members, willing to give up anything to keep American jobs at home?'"

Straw Poll Holds Peril, Opportunity For GOP Field

Despite the decision by three of the four top GOP candidates to skip the Ames, Iowa straw poll on Saturday, it is shaping up to be a vital event for the rest of the field. The Washington Post reports the Ames straw poll "is billed as an indicator of how party members will vote in the Republican caucus in January. But while no one can stage-manage a random telephone poll, it is open season when any voting-age Iowan or Iowa college student with a $35 ticket has a say" and participants' fees are paid for by the campaigns. The proceeds "from ticket sales, tent rentals, parking, etc., will go to the Iowa Republican Party, making the straw poll a bald money-making venture for the state GOP." But for "candidates trailing in reliable, representative polls and in fundraising, Ames may prove critical. After all, failure to do well in a poll for sale is often seen as an organizational indictment. That is why there may be fewer GOP contenders after Saturday."

The Politico reports Mitt Romney, the only top GOP name competing, enters the contest "with sky-high expectations. With his three top rivals for the Republican nomination skipping the traditional early test of strength, Romney is expected to win and win big." So he is now "trying to downplay his strong hand going into the contest and avoid being held to high expectations." But his "bar-lowering is complicated by his decision to run a very traditional campaign in Iowa -- a strategy that, by definition, puts huge importance on demonstrable success at the straw poll." Just how seriously is Romney taking this? Fox News' Special Report reported yesterday that he is going on the air with a new ad today "designed specifically to encourage folks to get to the straw poll."

USA Today reports former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is looking for a boost this weekend, hoping that Christian conservatives "will propel him to a strong showing this weekend and on Jan. 14, when Iowa holds the first presidential caucuses." They are the "group Huckabee thinks will like his stance against abortion and gay marriage, his plan for a national sales tax, and the simple fact that he is a Baptist pastor and doesn't mind sounding like one." Huckabee is "in the midst of a 10-day stint in Iowa drumming up support for the straw poll in this college town." Huckabee says he "must place among the top four candidates or it will be difficult to raise enough money to continue his White House campaign."

Fox News' Special Report reported last night that former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, who has made basically no impact on the race despite a decent set of credentials, "has said that if he doesn't come in first or second, he will drop out of the race all together once the Ames straw poll goes into the history books this weekend."

Giuliani: My Religion Is My Business

The AP reports Rudy Giuliani said yesterday "that whether he was a practicing Catholic was a personal matter as he declined to answer questions about his religion." Addressing a "town-hall meeting in Iowa," Giuliani "was asked whether he considered himself a 'traditional, practicing Roman Catholic.' An audience member also called on Giuliani to discuss the role his faith played in making decisions on issues such as abortion." Giuliani said, "My religious affiliation, my religious practices and the degree to which I am a good or not so good Catholic, I prefer to leave to the priests." The Des Moines Register reports Giuliani "drew a line today on public discussion of his religion, telling a Bettendorf audience that it's between him and his priest as to whether he's a 'good or not so good Catholic.' Giuliani went on to say that there should not be a religious test for public office." He was also "asked whether he would reach out to conservative Catholics like George Bush had done in winning the presidency. Giuliani said he wasn't tailoring his appeal for any particular group." The New York Daily News reports, "Asked after the Iowa encounter when Giuliani last attended church, aides declined to comment, citing privacy concerns."

Long Island Newsday adds that Giuliani's answer "illustrate the fine line he walks as he tries to sell himself in conservative Iowa in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination." In "speeches in small towns and large here, Giuliani has emphasized his resume as a hard-boiled prosecutor, a tough mayor who tamed New York City, and a terrorism expert. Yet he also tries to show his personal side, picking and choosing when to reveal personal details." Giuliani "insists that questions about his personal life are relevant only if the subject involves his performance as a public official."

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WASHINGTON NEWS

Democrats Turn Fire On Spy Chief

J. Michael McConnell, the Director of National Intelligence, took a large role in lobbying Congress in the Administration's ultimately successful effort to revise the FISA wiretapping law. However, in doing so, McConnell may have strained his relationship with Democratic lawmakers particularly as those lawmakers are coming under fire from a furious Democratic base. The Capitol Hill insider newspaper The Hill reports that "amid liberal anger over the Democrats' eleventh-hour accession to the White House on expanded eavesdropping authority, civil liberties groups are pressing the majority to rectify the situation soon or face a political backlash." Given the "ire in the left-leaning blogosphere," whether "the Democrats' decision to allow a vote on broader wiretapping of suspected terrorists will significantly alienate their core supporters remains unclear."

The Los Angeles Times and New York Times run fairly similar stories this morning, in which some Democratic members of Congress are quoted complaining about McConnell. The LA Times says his success came at the cost of straining "his relationships with key Democrats." His role, says the Times, "has prompted questions about whether the nation's top intelligence official, who is supposed to operate above the political fray, had allowed himself to be used for partisan purposes." Echoing a scene also described in the LA Times story, the New York Times describes "the frantic endgame of a White House push to broaden its eavesdropping authorities" as "Democratic leaders from the House and the Senate gathered in the Capitol office of Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House, for a conference call with" McConnell. He "was acting as the Bush administration's chief negotiator for the measure, and the Democrats were furious to learn that he had rejected their latest proposal. They questioned whether Mr. McConnell had succumbed to pressure from the White House and Republican lawmakers. He denied those accusations, but admitted that intense pressure from Congressional leaders of both parties had taken a toll."

Rise In US Deaths In Iraq In August

The AP reports US military officials said "four more US troops and a British soldier have died in attacks" a "possible sign that extremists are regrouping after a drop in American deaths last month. The spate of recent US deaths -- 19 so far in August -- seems certain to intensify the debate over US progress to calm Iraq and gain ground against militants ahead of a key September report to Congress." US deaths "had dropped slightly in July to 79," but US commanders "say rogue Shiite militias have stepped into the gap left as Sunni insurgents have been pushed back." However, a caveat unnoted in the AP story is that a projection of August troop deaths based on the current figure would indicate that 84 will be killed this month a figure only slightly higher than the number of US deaths in July.

Regardless, other media outlets echoed the AP, with the New York Times saying the latest US deaths "set the pace for a higher military toll in August than in July, when 80 American service members died from hostile and nonhostile causes, said Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, a Web site that tracks military deaths." The CBS Evening News reported, "President Bush had warned that August would be especially bloody for US forces as the enemy steps up attacks before the release of a major report next month on the progress of the surge. So far this month, at least 19 Americans have been killed." USA Today, meanwhile, runs a summarized version of the AP story under the headline "Shiite Militias Now A Top Threat To US Troops."

US Contractor Deaths In Iraq Top 1,000 ABC World News reported that "the number of American contractors who have died in Iraq has surpassed 1,000. And almost 13,000 have been injured. These numbers are based on injury and death benefit claims submitted to the Department of Labor." In a profile of an American contractor killed in Baghdad, the New York Times also notes the milestone.

Media Pessimistic On Economy

The Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee decision to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday was generally greeted with negative media coverage. A number of reports portrayed the Fed as unresponsive to the country's economic situation. ABC World News, for example, reported, "The big question going into today's Fed meeting was what would the Fed say and do if anything about the mess in the mortgage market and the credit squeeze now seeping into every corner of the economy. Well, the answer, for now, not much. From Wall Street to Main Street, people looking to borrow money, and hoping the Fed would make that easier today, came away disappointed." And the CBS Evening News reported, "The Federal Reserve today declined to lower interest rates leaving them right where they are. 30-year fixed rate mortgages are averaging 6.68% now. That's if a lender will actually give you one."

The Fed's statement prediction that the economy was continuing to expand got little media play. USA Today, meanwhile, reports the Fed "acknowledged that 'downside risks to growth have increased somewhat' but still predicted modest expansion." But the Washington Post says the Fed's "rosy outlook was rejected yesterday by some analysts."

Typical of today's coverage was the Financial Times, which says the Fed "acknowledged for the first time that the current turbulence in the credit markets could threaten economic growth, but stopped short of signalling an interest rate cut later in the year." The New York Times, meanwhile, reports the Fed "suggested that it would change course only if economic conditions deteriorate badly in the weeks and months ahead," with the Los Angeles Times and AP running similar stories.

NBC Nightly News said "the stock market swung wildly after the news but finished the day modestly higher," while ABC World News reported the stock markets "reacted to the Fed's decision with another day of considerable volatility." The New York Times notes the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index "rose 9.04, or 0.62 percent, to 1,476.71, while the Nasdaq composite index was up 14.27, or 0.56 percent, to 2,561.60. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 7.74, or 1.01 percent, to 774.13." Particularly negative was a front-page piece in today's Los Angeles Times, which says that "after a market upheaval that has hit like a bad case of whiplash, the fear on the Street is that the good times are coming to an abrupt halt."

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "Well, tonight, there was another Democratic debate. Another one. God, it's hard to believe there are only 96 more to go."

David Letterman: "The US government is now offering $50 million capture...for the capture of Osama bin Laden. ... Are you like me, are you thinking, 'Wow, do we really have that much left?'"

Conan O'Brien: "Earlier this week at a campaign event in Utah, hundreds of people showed up to hear a speech by Barack Obama. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, after Obama's speech, the Utah crowd said, 'That was great. Now let us know if an Asian guy ever comes to town.'"

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