Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Iraq All-Nighter Ends With A Whimper

According to media analysts, the outcome of the marathon Iraq session in the US Senate was a short-term win for President Bush. Democrats didn't get the 60 votes they needed for their pullout plan, and as the Washington Post reports, they "halted their quest to change...Bush's war strategy yesterday." Majority Leader Harry Reid "startled colleagues by announcing that the Senate would not vote on several other proposals intended to force Bush to revisit his war plans." His decision "may...have the effect of providing Bush with an opportunity that he has wanted: 60 more days to make his case that the war is making progress." The New York Times, likewise, says that Reid's decision "meant that...Bush had essentially won the added time he said he needed to demonstrate that his troop buildup was succeeding." The CBS Evening News said the debate had ended with "a partial victory, at least, for the President," who "bought some time and will probably going to be able to hang on to his Republican support at least until mid-September." Using similar language, the Wall Street Journal refers to "a short-term victory" for Bush.

Democrats believe, however, that in the long run they continue to hold the upper hand. USA Today notes Reid "and other Democrats vowed to increase political pressure." Said Reid, "Time and the American people are on our side." AFP, the Christian Science Monitor and The Politico make similar points.

Some reports this morning address the debate over whether or not the session was merely "political theater," as Republicans claim. NBC Nightly News said "Democrats have taken the concept of going to the mattresses quite literally of late," using a metaphor that has found its way into a number of media reports over the last couple of days. The "odd thing is," added NBC, that "Democrats knew when they decided to hold this debate they did not have the 60 votes they needed to move that proposal to withdraw troops to the next level. They only got 52 votes. They only got four Republicans to join them. So the question arises, why did they have the debate at all?" The clash over who forced whose hand, and whether Reid's overplayed his hand, is also featured in Los Angeles Times, UPI and Minneapolis Star Tribune stories.

Dana Milbank writes in his Washington Post column, "With much fanfare, Democrats invited camera crews to film the arrival of a dozen cots outside the Senate chamber Tuesday afternoon for the all-night Iraq debate. With rather less fanfare, the cots, unused, were removed early yesterday morning. ... So was the debate." Milbank recounts that "in the wee hours, John McCain (R-Ariz.) walked alone toward the Senate chamber. 'I'm going to speak all night,' he vowed with determination. 'I'm going to bed,' a reporter told the senator. 'You won't miss a thing,' McCain assured."

At te end of the day, not many people appeared to be happy with Reid. The Washington Times reports peace activist Cindy Sheehan said yesterday, "It was a smoke screen. Senators talk all night of ending the war and bringing our troops home, and they still give Bush billions." The New York Times, on the other hand, says in an editorial that "the nation's anguish over the Iraq war was kept on hold in the Senate yesterday as the Republican minority maintained serial threats of filibuster to buy time for...Bush's aimless policies. ... In postponing real action to September and beyond, Republicans laughed off the all-night debate as a 'slumber party' of 'twilight zone' theatrics by the Democrats. In fact, Bush loyalists seem trapped in the twilight zone, ducking their responsibility to represent constituents by applying credible pressure on the president to come up with an end to his sorry war."

Did Reid Go Too Far? While the outcome of the Iraq debate was widely expected, some analysts are surprised this morning by the bitterness of the exchanges between senators, and the apparent breakdown in Senate comity that has taken place in recent days. The Hill reports that after failing to get the 50 votes they needed, "Senate Democrats pulled a major defense bill from the floor yesterday over bitter Republican protests, prompting a meltdown of relations and further clouding prospects for bipartisan accord." Signaling "a growing rift" between Reid and McConnell, "the two could not agree which measure to consider next after Democrats' abrupt decision to set aside the fiscal 2008 defense authorization bill." The Wall Street Journal says "the brusque turn of events in the Senate yesterday shows how both sides have hardened in the debate, sacrificing comity and leaving war-weary moderates with fewer options to express themselves. Even two prominent Republican former chairmen of military and foreign relations panels were denied a vote on their proposals, something that would have been unheard of in the past. As personal relations and any spirit of accommodation frayed, it has been harder to map a bipartisan course on even an issue as pressing as war."

Under the headline "Senate Comity Slips Away," Roll Call says "this week's Senate debate on the Iraq War has pushed the chamber to a new level of partisan acrimony, where even the most seasoned and collegial of Senate elders have abandoned traditional acts of decorum." Reid's "insistence not only on having repeated votes this year on pulling out of Iraq but also on having the overnight session contributed to the explosion of partisan tensions, some Senators said."

Polls Have Bad News For All New polls out this morning suggest Americans are not happy with their government. The Washington Times notes a new Zogby poll that shows that "14 percent of likely voters rated Congress' performance as excellent or good -- 20 points below Mr. Bush's 34 percent and the lowest ever recorded by the pollster." Meanwhile, the CBS Evening News led its broadcast with "a CBS News/New York Times poll out tonight," in which "nearly three out of four Americans say the troop surge is not working, that it's having no impact or actually making matters worse. And nearly two out of three want the President to bring some or all US forces home."

Snow: Deny Al Qaeda A Victory In Iraq In rhetoric sure to infuriate Iraq war critics, White House press secretary Tony Snow writes in USA Today this morning, "The al-Qaeda of 2001 no longer exists. We've killed or captured two-thirds of its senior leadership. ... Iraq and Afghanistan are theaters in the fight against terror that has spread through Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and Asia. To deny al-Qaeda victory in Iraq sends the message that terrorism will fail and democracy prevail. Victory in Iraq will mark the beginning of the end of the war on terror."

Al Qaeda Capture Sparks Suspicions

The US military and the White House announced yesterday that a top al Qaeda in Iraq operative had been captured. The Financial Times reports Brigadier General Kevin Bergner told a press conference that Khaled al-Mashhadani was the group's liaison's to the most senior leaders in the al Qaeda network, Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri. But a number of media reports note that some are questioning the timing of the arrest as Mashhadani's role would appear to bolster the White House's arguments for continuing the war in Iraq. ABC World News said "there were some who questioned the timing of the announcement. In recent days, the White House has renewed efforts to show progress in Iraq. Mashhadani, it turns out, was actually captured two weeks ago. The White House also wants to show progress with al Qaeda, after yesterday's devastating intelligence report." The Christian Science Monitor says the announcement amounts to "new grist to the Bush administration's claims that the al Qaeda that American forces are battling in Iraq is an extension of the group that was behind the 9/11 attacks," and "many critics are skeptical." The Monitor adds "analysts and some Iraqi officials say the groups share goals and ideology, but there is little evidence of tactical guidance from Mr. bin Laden or his colleagues."

The Washington Post reports "officials in Washington said the announcement of Mashhadani's capture, two weeks after it occurred, was unrelated to White House efforts this week to emphasize tight links between al-Qaeda in Iraq and the organization headed by bin Laden." The conservative Washington Times, meanwhile, says "the White House trumpeted the capture as an example of success from President Bush's troop-surge plan, and the new U.S. military plan in Iraq."

Washington, New York Still Al Qaeda's Top Targets

Terrorism experts -- including those who brief the White House tell the US News Political Bulletin that they believe major metro areas like New York City and Washington DC remain the top targets of al Qaeda. The experts and analysts said that while other cities or areas in the nation's heartland might be attractive targets because they aren't fortified with security like the East Coast hubs, only New York and Washington are symbolic of the American power that the terror group headed by Osama bin Laden seeks to destroy.

In a roundtable session with reporters, for example, Lee Hamilton, co-chair of the Iraq Study Group, said that "New York and Washington remain a primary target because they want symbolic strikes and they want mass casualties." He added that he believes bin Laden is still alive but not calling the shots. "I don't have the impression that he is certainly the operational head," said Hamilton. But he said it should remain a top U.S. priority to capture or kill bin Laden because he is the symbol of the terrorist group.

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Obama Moves In On Edwards' Turf

John Edwards has made the fight against poverty the hallmark of his second presidential campaign from its beginning. He's headed a university anti-poverty center and has just completed a 3-day RFK-esque trip through poor parts of the nation yesterday. However, Sen. Barack Obama is not letting him have the issue to himself. Speaking yesterday in a poor section of Washington DC, the Washington Post reports that Obama was in Anacostia to "stake his own claim as a poverty warrior -- and to present a vision for fixing struggling inner cities that directly challenges that of Edwards." Obama "did not mention" Edwards, but "appeared to allude to Edwards in asserting his own authority as an anti-poverty crusader." However, Edwards campaign spokesman Eric Schultz painted Obama's move as a sign that Edwards is leading other candidates on issues. The Chicago Sun Times similarly reports that Obama "staked a claim" to Edwards's "signature issue -- poverty -- while raising the question of who could claim the legacy of Bobby Kennedy." The AP adds Obama was "reminding voters of his experience working with the inner-city poor as his rival bemoaned the plight of the downtrodden in rural Appalachia."

USA Today reports that their "competing speeches that underscored the new prominence of an old issue in the fight for the Democratic nomination."

Prominent GOP Businessman Endorses Clinton

There has been a lot of press lately noting a new trend big finance is increasingly contributing to Democrats. More evidence of that this week, as the Chicago Sun-Times reports Terrence Duffy, the executive chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, who "is a prolific Republican fundraiser who could have a political future himself," has endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton in her bid for president. "The Clinton campaign announced his backing Wednesday, offering it as an example of bipartisan appeal." Crain's Chicago Business called the move "a big political surprise," and "a bit of a shot at" Obama," but "more notable for Mr. Duffy's long and distinguished GOP pedigree. Mr. Duffy, 48, twice has been appointed to federal posts by President George W. Bush, first as a member of the National Saver Summit on Retirement Savings in 2002 and later as a member of the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, which managed $190 billion in retirement assets for federal workers. His statement dubs him 'one of Chicago's key Republican fundraisers' and says that despite the endorsement, Mr. Duffy 'intends to remain a registered Republican.'"

The endorsement may not be all good news for Clinton, however, as it dredges up some old memories. A blog report on the website of the Wall Street Journal also notes Duffy's endorsement of Clinton, suggesting that "perhaps her success in commodity trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange way back when" garnered her Duffy's backing. The Journal concludes, "Back in 1978, Clinton made about $100,000 on cattle futures contracts, raising questions that she had received preferential treatment. In 1994, the Clinton White House released the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's records of her trades. Chicago Mercantile officials who had examined her trades found no problems on her part."

Clinton Shows Strength In National Trial Heats

A Zogby International poll of 1,012 likely voters nationally taken July 12-14 shows Hillary Clinton topping the four leading GOP candidates in 2008 general election trial heats. Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani, 46%-41%; John McCain, 45%-43%; Mitt Romney, 48%-38%; and Fred Thompson, 47%-41%. In a similar survey taken two months ago, Giuliani led Clinton, 48%-43%, as did McCain, 47%-43%. Barack Obama also leads all four Republicans, but by smaller margins than he did two months ago. Obama leads Giuliani, 46%-43%; McCain, 45%-42%; Romney, 49%-35%; and Thompson, 48%-40%. Zogby says that if you add NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg to the mix as an independent, he takes between 6% and 11% of the total, slightly more from Republicans than Democrats, but doesn't change the outcome of any race.

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "The U.S. Senate held an all-night session last night to try and gain the votes needed to begin troop withdrawal from Iraq. They lost. They stayed in the Senate chambers all night long, some of them sleeping on cots. In fact, Hillary stayed up so late, she actually saw Bill sneaking in."

Jay Leno: "A report card on Iraq shows progress in only 8 of 18 areas. ... And, of course, President Bush is thrilled. That's the best report card he ever got in his life."

Jay Leno: "Fox News is now reporting there are people in the CIA who are working against President Bush's policy by using incompetence. Yeah. So, apparently, they're fighting fire with fire."

Jay Leno: "Well, John McCain has a new campaign slogan 'an army of one.'"

David Letterman: "Last night down in Washington they had the all-night Senate session. ... It was the D.C. Madam's slowest night ever."

David Letterman: "Republicans were saying that" if we "pull out the troops now," in 120 days it "would lead to chaos in Iraq. And I'm thinking, hell, chaos would be an improvement. Let's try that."

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