Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Bush May Be Mulling Iraq Exit

Republican defections on Iraq continued over the weekend, and as the New York Times says on its front page this morning, White House officials "fear that the last pillars of political support among Senate Republicans for President Bush's Iraq strategy are collapsing around them." The Times says it has gotten so bad that, "inside the administration, debate is intensifying over whether Mr. Bush should try to prevent more defections by announcing his intention to begin a gradual withdrawal of American troops from the high-casualty neighborhoods of Baghdad and other cities."

It appears that the President and his aides had hoped to postpone such talk until after the September 15 status report by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, but circumstances are making it difficult. The Financial Times says the "Republican rebellion against the war in Iraq widened over the weekend," leaving the President "increasingly isolated." A Saturday AP story said "more than a dozen" GOP senators up for reelection next year "head the list of lawmakers to watch" for future defections, among them Georgia's Saxby Chambliss, Minnesota's Norm Coleman, Wyoming's Michael Enzi, Oklahoma's James Inhofe, Kansas' Pat Roberts, Alabama's Jeff Sessions, and Alaska's Ted Stevens. And as USA Today reports this morning, even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell faces a tricky situation in Kentucky, where he is up for reelection next year. At a stop near Kentucky's Fort Campbell last week, McConnell said, "The majority of the public has decided the Iraq effort is not worth it. That puts a lot of pressure on Congress to act because public opinion in a democracy is not irrelevant." In his Washington Post column today, Robert Novak says National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley held meetings with "half-dozen senior Republican senators" last week to "extinguish fires set by" Lugar's "unexpected break" from Bush. Novak says the meetings "failed."

NBC Nightly News also said "the war and the upcoming election season here at home are fueling calls on Capitol Hill for a course change," and, "increasingly, they're coming from within the President's own party." On NBC's Meet The Press, Sen. Chuck Hagel, the most outspoken antiwar Republican, said, "If we do not see this Administration take some initiatives to make some changes, significant, strategic policy changes over the next 90 days, it will be forced on them."

Sen. Richard Lugar, a GOP foreign affairs expert who questioned the Iraq mission last week, said on CNN's Late Edition that "there's no conceivable way that" the benchmarks could be to be implemented by September. On that same program, moderate Republican Sen. Arlen Specter said, "There is no doubt there is a civil war. And had we known Saddam did not have weapons of mass destruction, we wouldn't have gone in. And now we don't want to leave Iraq in a state of total disorder." Over on Fox News Sunday, GOP Rep. Peter Hoekstra said, "I think there's going to be pressure on the Administration, and I think rightfully so, to take a look and assess the objectives that they have established."

Starting today, ABC World News reported in its lead Sunday story, "Senate leaders will unleash a flood of anti-war measures -- everything from revoking the President's original authorization for the war to beginning troop withdrawals within a month." ABC said GOP "support for the war is cracking. This week, three more senior Republican senators called for a change of course in Iraq." On its Sunday front page, the New York Times said Senate Democrats are now "increasingly confident they can assemble majority opposition to administration policies."

Administration Crafting Progress Report The Washington Post reports "amid growing pressure on the Bush administration to withdraw US troops from Iraq," Defense Secretary Robert Gates has postponed a trip to Latin America "to help the White House assemble a progress report" on Iraq to present to Congress. On its Sunday front page, the Washington Post said officials "are marshaling alternative evidence of progress to persuade Congress to continue supporting the war. ... The administration will report that Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar province are turning against the group al-Qaeda in Iraq in growing numbers; that sectarian killings were down in June; and that Iraqi political leaders managed last month to agree on a unified response to the bombing of a major religious shrine." But at the same time, the Christian Science Monitor says this morning, the "stage is being set for a post-'surge' Iraq strategy that reduces US ambitions for the Iraq project, even while keeping some US forces there for years to come." The "contours of a new approach floating around Washington suggest a drawing down of the 160,000 US forces there beginning as early as the end of this year."

A "Historic Editorial"? In what Editor and Publisher said could "one day be viewed as a historic editorial," the New York Times devoted more than 1,700 words Sunday to arguing that "it is time for the United States to leave Iraq." The Times said that whatever Bush's "cause was, it is lost. ... We can go on allowing Mr. Bush to drag out this war without end or purpose. Or we can insist that American troops are withdrawn as quickly and safely as we can manage -- with as much effort as possible to stop the chaos from spreading."

In softer terms this morning, the Los Angeles Times says "now would be a good time" for the President "to start talking to lawmakers about the parameters of a pullout." On the other side of the argument, the Wall Street Journal criticizes the GOP defectors, saying a "divided Republican caucus that undercuts America's military efforts while chasing the mirage of bipartisan comity will only make their own election defeat more likely," while the Washington Times calls congressional war critics "The Appeasement Caucus."

Conyers: Bush Shushing Libby

ABC World News reported that House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers said Sunday that "President Bush's decision to commute Scooter Libby's prison sentence looks suspicious." Conyers "has called a hearing for Wednesday." On ABC's This Week, Conyers said, "What we have here...is that the suspicion was that if Mr. Libby went to prison, he might further implicate other people in the White House." The AP says Conyers "spoke of 'the general impression' that Bush last week commuted" Libby's sentence "to keep Libby quiet. The White House said Conyers' claim was baseless." White House spokesman Tony Fratto called it "a fairly ridiculous and baseless assertion."

Roll Call says a witness list for the Wednesday hearings is "expected to be announced today, and the committee also is weighing whether to try to subpoena Libby at a future date." Democrats "are not hopeful that Libby would be forthcoming, given that Bush has not ruled out a full pardon." But The Politico says Republicans "are promising to stand by the president, with many Bush defenders citing former President Bill Clinton's pardons and making comparisons between the Libby commutation and Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich."

On the Sunday political chat shows, several members of the House and Senate chimed in. On CNN's Late Edition, Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy said the President "has the constitutional power to commute sentences of anybody he wants. I wish he had shown more constitutional responsibility, just as I was critical of some of the pardons by President Clinton, former President Bush or President Reagan." By contrast, on CBS's Face The Nation, Sen. Orrin Hatch said the "only thing I was disappointed in" was that "I think he should have been pardoned."

On NBC's Meet The Press, Sen. Chuck Hagel, a GOP Bush critic, said he was "disappointed" by Bush's decision. Over on Fox News Sunday, Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen said Bush's action "shows a contempt for the concept of equal justice under law."

Schumer: Panel Could Call In Prosecutor Sen. Charles Schumer said on CBS's Face The Nation that he had spoken with Leahy about calling CIA leak probe prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald before the Judiciary panel. Schumer said, "He's not allowed to talk about what happened before the grand jury, but he did interview the President and the Vice President not before a grand jury. And he might have some very interesting things to say."

Relations With Cheney May Have Influenced Bush In Newsweek, Michael Isikoff writes that White House counsel Fred Fielding "reluctantly concluded that the jury had reached a reasonable verdict: the evidence was strong that Libby testified falsely about his role in the leak," and so advised the President. But Bush "was conflicted. He hated the idea that a loyal aide would serve time." And while Vice President Cheney "did not directly weigh in" with Fielding, "nobody involved had any doubt where he stood. 'I'm not sure Bush had a choice,' says one of the advisers. 'If he didn't act, it would have caused a fracture with the vice president.'"

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Sheehan Threatens To Challenge Pelosi

The AP is reporting today that antiwar activist Cindy Sheehan will challenge House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for her congressional seat next year "unless she introduces articles of impeachment against President Bush" by July 23 when Sheehan is "to arrive in Washington, D.C., after a 13-day caravan and walking tour." Sheehan is quoted as saying, "Democrats and Americans feel betrayed by the Democratic leadership. ... We hired them to bring an end to the war. I'm not too far from San Francisco, so it wouldn't be too big of a move for me. I would give her a run for her money."

Meanwhile the Washington Post, in a front-page article, contends that Pelosi has "yet to convince the nation that Democrats can govern" since only one of her initiatives, the minimum wage hike, has actually been signed into law. The Post notes that when Pelosi became Speaker in January, Congressional Democrats had a 43 percent approval rating, but "it has sunk to about the same low levels as President Bush's, a bit below 30 percent. And Pelosi's own approval ratings have slipped, from 48 percent in a March poll...to 36 percent last month," while her disapproval ratings "climbed from 22 percent to 39 percent." The Post adds that Pelosi's Democratic colleagues "worry that they must get some of the domestic agenda passed soon, to show voters they can govern, even as they are still dogged by a creative Republican resistance that has bedeviled Pelosi and her party."

45% Back Bush Impeachment Proceedings AFP reports "nearly half of the US public" wants President Bush "to face impeachment, and even more favor that fate" for Vice President Cheney, according to an American Research Group poll, which is available online. The survey found 45% support beginning impeachment proceedings against Bush, and 54% support proceedings against Cheney.

Homeland Security Vacancies Hurt Preparedness

The Washington Post reports on its front page that vacancies at "roughly a quarter of the top leadership posts at the Department of Homeland Security" amount to "a 'gaping hole' in the nation's preparedness for a terrorist attack or other threat," according to a congressional report. But agency spokesman Russ Knocke said the survey "is skewed by a sudden expansion this spring in the number of top management jobs."

Court Rejects Wiretapping Lawsuit

A panel of the US Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 last week that plaintiffs in a lawsuit challenging the National Security Agency's warrantless wiretapping program had no standing to sue. The decision was called a "victory for the Bush Administration" by NBC Nightly News.

Print media was more circumspect, with some sources stressing that the ruling was on the narrow ground of standing, not on the bigger questions of the program's legality. On Saturday, the New York Times said on its front page that the ruling was on a "narrow ground, saying the plaintiffs, including lawyers and journalists, could not show injury direct and concrete enough to allow them to have standing to sue." On its front page, the Washington Post also highlighted that the court "did not rule on the spying program's legality." The Los Angeles Times, AP and Washington Times ran similar stories.

Snow Optimistic About Cancer Treatment

U.S. News and World Report's Washington Whispers column reports White House Press Secretary Tony Snow "is telling friends that he has a very good shot at winning his second bout with cancer. He's even boasting that he has a better chance this time than he did when he was first diagnosed with colon cancer." Snow is still "undergoing chemotherapy every other Friday," but "we're assured that he'll be there for the grand opening of the renovated White House briefing room July 12."

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Hagel To Stick With GOP

The AP reports that Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (R), who has flirted repeatedly with the idea of an independent presidential bid, said yesterday on NBC's "Meet The Press" that he won't leave the GOP. Asked if he had decided against making an independent bid, Hagel said, "For right now I am. And what the world looks like next year, I don't know. But I have no plans to change parties or run for president as an independent." Hagel added, however, "That doesn't mean, by the way, that I don't think an independent does not have some renewed possibilities next year." Hagel's future remains up in the air, though, even with a presidential campaign no longer an issue. The Washington Times reports that Hagel, "who has repeatedly disagreed with the administration and fellow Republican lawmakers over Iraq policy, said he must also decide whether he will seek election to a third term in the Senate."

McCain Advised To Quit The Senate

In U.S. News and World Report's Washington Whispers column, Paul Bedard writes, "Before he falls out of the top tier of GOP White House hopefuls, chief advisers to Sen. John McCain are urging him to quit his day job and become a full-time presidential candidate. 'Just resign,' one says he told McCain. 'Show you're all in.' Advisers say being a senator is a drag. He doesn't have enough time to campaign and raise money. Worse: The issues he has to vote on, like immigration reform, are killers. If McCain takes that advice, here's the game plan: 'Pick three issues conservatives care about and nail them,' says one adviser, 'and attack [Sen.] Hillary Clinton every day. He needs to break out, and becoming the anti-Hillary will work.'"

Giuliani Acclimates To NASCAR Culture

The New York Times reports that Rudy Giuliani faced a new type of challenge in his presidential campaign this weekend finding a way to appeal to the NASCAR crown. The Time reports, "Standing before about 200,000 die-hard racing fans who had spent hours sweating, drinking and revving up for the Pepsi 400, Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York mayor who is much more Brooklyn than bayou, acknowledged on Saturday what many could have guessed." Giuliani said, "This is my first live NASCAR event." The Times adds that when he was mayor, Giuliani "was not shy about indulging in such New York treats as the opera or expensive Italian restaurants. But he now finds himself on different terrain as he runs for president, and so he has started educating himself on the sport that claims some 75 million fans who skew distinctly Republican." Giuliani told reporters that he had just finished reading 'The Female Fan Guide to Motorsports.'"

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Democrats Set To Hike Corporate Taxes

U.S. News and World Report reports this week Hillary Clinton praised investor Warren Buffett "as 'patriotic' for understanding it was the national duty of wealthier Americans to pay higher taxes. And guess what, if Clinton or any of the other Democratic presidential candidates gets elected, it's a fair bet that corporate America will get a chance to do its duty." Already on "Capitol Hill, there are efforts to make companies pay more, such as doubling the tax rate on publicly traded, private-equity partnerships, like Blackstone Group. It might well pass, perhaps attached to a bill that would patch the alternative minimum tax."

Impact Of Big War Chest Examined

The Los Angeles Times today runs an analysis piece on the growing funding disparity between such well-heeled candidates as Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani and their less well funded competitors, such as Sen. John McCain. The Times notes that "money is not necessarily determinative," but concedes that "It is undeniably better, however, to be rich than poor. ... And the rich are likely to keep getting richer, making it all the more difficult for other candidates to catch up financially - especially now that fundraisers are hitting the slow summer months."

Taking a contrary opinion, noted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, in his Roll Call column today, says that fundraising totals are a poor measure of ultimate success in a presidential contest. Rothenberg writes that even "fourth-quarter fundraising numbers in 2003 proved to be a lousy indicator of who would win in Iowa and who would win the Democratic nomination." Fundraising was "a poor predictor in 2004 for the Democrats, and a late June CBS News poll found more Democratic primary voters 'enthusiastic' about" Clinton "(28 percent) than about" Obama "(22 percent)." It's "true that Clinton raised 'only' $21 million in primary funds compared with Obama's $31 million. But all that means is both candidates will have enough resources to mount top-shelf campaigns in the early caucus and primary states." In addition, 2nd quarter fundraising numbers "haven't done anything to clarify the GOP contest."

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Craig Ferguson: "George W. Bush, of course, he's 61 today. Also, Sylvester Stallone 61 today. ... Stallone and Bush don't have much in common. One is a bad actor who mumbles and blows stuff up, and the other one is Sylvester Stallone."

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