Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Petraeus: Mission Could Take 10 Years

With policymakers in Washington including Republicans setting the stage for a September showdown over Iraq policy, the man in charge of implementing the "surge" suggested yesterday that it could take up to a decade defeat the insurgents. Gen. David Petraeus is scheduled to report on progress in Iraq this September, and even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, on CBS's Face The Nation, said "most members of my conference in the Senate believe" that presentation will be "the critical point to evaluate where we are. ... I think everybody anticipates that there's going to be a new strategy in the fall." McConnell seemed to hint at his policy preference: "I find growing support in the Senate among Republicans, and for that matter, some Democrats as well, for the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. There's a proposal by" Sens. Lamar Alexander and Mark Pryor "basically advocating going in that direction." Also on CBS's Face The Nation, Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin said that McConnell's comments mean "the handwriting is on the wall." In fact, Time reports in its "Notebook" segment that "there is change afoot -- in personnel, if not yet policy -- in the war rooms of Washington. Over the past month, President George W. Bush has removed many of the last traces of the team that conceived and then executed the Iraq war. It is probably a good sign that many of the new replacements are Navy admirals, who tend to think more creatively than their counterparts in the hidebound Army." All these "moves suggest -- but hardly guarantee -- a course correction on Iraq by September, when the patience of even GOP lawmakers will probably run out."

Looking toward that momentous September deadline, Gen. Petraeus and US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker yesterday gave a mixed assessment of progress in Iraq. The general, appearing on Fox News Sunday, said, "We're ahead of where we thought we would be at this point in time, and then we are behind where we might have been in some other areas." Amb. Crocker, on NBC's Meet The Press said, "The success in Anbar has been quite striking as the Iraqi tribes out there have basically turned against al Qaeda, and the level of violence in Anbar is dramatically down. ... Violence has shifted out of Baghdad."

Most media reports this morning, however, focus on Petraeus' statement that stabilizing Iraq will require a long-term commitment on the US' part. The Washington Times titles its story "US Likely To Fight Insurgents For Years," and notes Petraeus said that "in fact, typically, I think historically, counterinsurgency operations have gone at least nine or 10 years." Bloomberg runs a similar dispatch titled "Petraeus Says Iraq Plan Won't Succeed By September," reporting Petraeus said "the odds of building a stable Iraqi government by September are slim, even with the addition of 30,000 US troops to give lawmakers in Baghdad security." The Politico, Financial Times and AP run similar reports. And Roger Cohen, in his New York Times column, writes "the Iraqi conflict is going to be with us for years if not decades," and "America's September deadline for measuring the progress achieved by the addition of 30,000 troops looks almost comical. Let's face it folks, things are not going to be measurably better in Iraq by September."

Meanwhile, media assessments of the "surge" strategy continue to be starkly negative. U.S. News and World Report says the "early indications" from the US "surge" are "far from encouraging. While sectarian killings appear to have declined at least temporarily in the capital, the Pentagon reports that overall violence levels nationwide remain as high as ever." The "one spot of good news -- a serious drop in al Qaeda activity in the troubled western province of Anbar -- appears to have little to do with the surge strategy." Time, meanwhile, says "militant groups have responded to the US surge with a big push of their own, unleashing a flurry of new or rarely used tactics and innovations designed to maximize the death toll."

Immigration Bill Not A Done Deal

With the immigration bill coming "back from the dead," as the CBS Evening News put it Thursday night, many analysts forecast swift Senate passage and assumed the next real battle would come in the House. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made it clear yesterday that the measure is not guaranteed Senate passage. The Washington Times notes McConnell "said the fate of the immigration bill is still in doubt." Said the senator, "It's hard to know if the votes will be there to pass it or not." USA Today reports on the bill's status under the headline, "McConnell Won't Predict Immigration Measure's Fate." Roll Call, in a piece about his performance as leader, says McConnell "finds himself torn between competing factions of his Conference, as his stalwart conservatives pull out all the stops to thwart the Democratic majority while many of his rank-and-file grow increasingly frustrated with the lack of bipartisan legislative accomplishments."

Reid Plans "Clay Pigeon" Move Roll Call reports this morning that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "is expected to employ a rarely used procedural tactic known as a 'clay pigeon' to resume debate on the immigration bill later this week, allowing the measure's backers to dictate the number of amendments while blocking any efforts by conservatives to slow or hijack the process, Senate aides said Friday." Reid's maneuver "will allow him to add a package of supplemental spending items aimed at funding border security efforts already under way, an inducement to gain support from wavering Republicans. According to a Democratic aide familiar with the issue, Reid is 'likely' to use the clay pigeon tactic, though the source cautioned that could change between now and Thursday afternoon, when debate is expected to resume."

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Partisan War Looms Over Spending

In his syndicated column this morning, Robert Novak writes the President "plans to veto the homeland security appropriations bill nearing final passage, followed by vetoes of eight more money bills sent him by the Democratic-controlled Congress. That constitutes a veto onslaught of historic proportions from a president who did not reject a single bill during his first term. Of the 12 appropriations bills for fiscal 2008, only three will be signed by the president in the form shaped by the House. What's more, Bush correctly claimed that he has the House votes needed to sustain these vetoes. The unpopular president is taking the offensive on fiscal responsibility."

Bush is not bothering to hide his intentions. The Washington Post noted Sunday that speaking in his weekly radio address, Bush "lashed out" at Democrats for their "tax and spend" policies and threatened to veto any appropriation bill with "excessive spending." The Post added that "when the Republicans were in charge on Capitol Hill, Bush was less fastidious about policing spending, deferring to Republican leaders on the appropriations bills. But with Democrats in charge, Bush has begun threatening to use a veto pen he has used only twice, on a stem cell measure and an emergency Iraq spending bill that included a withdrawal timeline." The AP and The Hill ran similar stories.

Worst Abu Ghraib Images Suppressed

In a piece for the New Yorker, Seymour Hersh (who first disclosed prisoner abuse at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq) discloses what ABC World News called "startling" new facts about the scandal. Hersh says "videos of some of the worst abuses were never made public." Hersh bases his reporting on "an interview with the general charged with investigating the abuse, Antonio Taguba. Taguba tells Hersh that top officials said the Pentagon showed little interest in his findings and ignored evidence he made available to them. ... Taguba told Hersh he was forced to resign." Hersh writes, "I learned from Taguba that the first wave of materials included descriptions of the sexual humiliation of a father with his son, who were both detainees. Several of these images, including one of an Iraqi woman detainee baring her breasts, have since surfaced; others have not. ... Taguba said that he saw 'a video of a male American soldier in uniform sodomizing a female detainee.' The video was not made public in any of the subsequent court proceedings, nor has there been any public government mention of it. Such images would have added an even more inflammatory element to the outcry over Abu Ghraib." Hersh also discussed his findings on CNN's Late Edition yesterday.

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

Anti-Clinton Memo Ends Up Stinging Obama

Evolving coverage, that began on blogs on Friday afternoon and continues through Monday morning, of an opposition research document crafted by Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign aimed at Sen. Hillary Clinton, may be boomeranging on Obama. The Washington Post reported that on Friday, Obama's campaign "circulated a memo criticizing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton '(D-Punjab)' for having financial ties to India and encouraging the outsourcing of jobs. It included a joke the senator from New York told at a fundraiser with Indian Americans last year: 'I can certainly run for the Senate seat in Punjab and win easily.'" But "after the oppo research was circulated and generated some bad press for Clinton," attention shifted to Obama, who "has worked to convey that his campaign would be elevated above such rough and tough tactics as circulating opposition research."

The New York Times put Obama's tactics under the microscope in a piece headlined "A New Kind Of Politics Closely Resembles The Old." The Times said Obama "often offers a crisp sales pitch to voters, imploring them to be part of something new, different and hopeful. 'If you want a new kind of politics,' he says, 'it's time to turn the page.'" But as the campaign "intensifies, the high-wire act of political purity is becoming more difficult for him to maintain, particularly on days when the race takes on the air of a bare-knuckles street fight." In addition to the "Punjab" document, Obama "has been dogged about his friendship with a businessman indicted on federal charges of business fraud and influence peddling." Obama's campaign has also "mixed it up with the Clinton campaign over remarks made by David Geffen."

Indian-Americans were quick to attack Obama for the hit piece. The Politico said Sanjay Puri, who heads the bipartisan US India Political Action Committee, wrote to Obama "expressing his concern about the reports that 'your staff may be engaging in the worst kind of anti-Indian American stereotyping.'" In an interview, Puri said the "stereotype he was referring to was 'that Indian-Americans are all thinking about outsourcing, that whenever you talk to an Indian-American it's about outsourcing.'" The Chicago Tribune reported that the Obama campaign "expressed regret Friday for the 'tone' used in" the documents "after complaints from an Indian-American group, whose leader complained about 'anti-Indian-American stereotyping' in the documents. 'There cannot be a suggestion that Indian-Americans are somehow taboo,' said Sanjay Puri, chairman of the 50,000-member U.S.-India Political Action Committee. 'That is not the message we want any leader to be presenting.'"

The New York Daily News on Sunday followed up by noting continued outrage in the Indian-American community, though acknowledging that some members were "pledging continued allegiance" for Obama. "'I was very dismayed by the memo - and less than satisfied by the response thus far - but I know that Sen. Obama is very concerned about it and am confident he's going to take whatever steps need to be taken to address the situation,' said Obama backer Preeta Bansal, former New York solicitor general and one-time Clinton administration member. Sharp criticisms of Obama circulating in the blogosphere yesterday show some apparently feel differently. Some faulted him, and others, his staff."

Clinton, Giuliani On Top In Poll

USA Today reports Sen. Hillary Clinton "has regained a double-digit lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll two weeks after the survey found the Democratic presidential rivals essentially tied," while on the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani remains ahead, but Fred Thompson "for the first time edges into second place over Arizona Sen. John McCain. The results show a Republican race that could be roiled by Thompson, who is targeting conservatives unsatisfied with their choices in the field so far. He is costing Giuliani most: A third of Thompson's supporters say they would otherwise back the former mayor." Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 33% to 21% if Al Gore is included; if not, she leads Obama 39% to 26%. In the earlier poll, Clinton led Obama by just one point, 30% to 29%, with Gore included. On the GOP side, Giuliani is at 28%, Fred Thompson 19%, Sen. John McCain 18%, and Mitt Romney 7%.

Obama, Thompson Lead In South Carolina

McClatchy reports, "South Carolina appears poised to shake up the 2008 presidential race," with a new poll showing Barack Obama and Fred Thompson leading the field in this early primary state. Among the 329 Democrats surveyed by independent pollster Mason-Dixon over June 13-15, Obama led with 34%, followed by Clinton, 25%; John Edwards, 12%; Sen. Joseph Biden, 2%; and Gov. Bill Richardson, 1%. Three others received the support of less than one percent; two percent volunteered Al Gore as a response. Among black respondents, Obama led Clinton 41% to 18%. Among the 432 Republicans surveyed during the same period, Thompson led with 25%, followed by Rudy Giuliani, 21%; Mitt Romney, 11%; Sen. John McCain, 7%; and Mike Huckabee, 5%. Six others received the support of one percent or less.

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "Cheney is having an operation on his heart this week. Boy, you talk about microsurgery."

Jay Leno: "Dan Rather came out swinging this week. He said that CBS and Katie Couric are tarting up the news. That's what he said, tarting up the news. As opposed to Dan who, you know, just made up the news."

Conan O'Brien: "This morning, in Washington, President Bush attended the 6th Annual Hispanic Prayer Breakfast. It's a good thing to do, yeah. Yeah. At the breakfast, President Bush showed off his Spanish by ordering el Capitan Cruncho."

Conan O'Brien: "Hillary Clinton has launched a new website where people can get all the latest Hillary news. Yeah, in a related story, John Edwards has launched a new website where people can order his secret blend of shampoos and conditioners."

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