Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Iraq Funds Pass Without Pullout Timeline

With the Memorial Day recess looming, Congress passed the Iraq funding bill by a margin of 80-14 in the Senate and 280-142 in the House. While the measure which did not include timelines for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq was a tactical defeat for Democrats, media reports noted President Bush and the Republicans did not revel in the win. USA Today says Republicans "provided support in the Democratic-majority Congress for the final version of the bill, which was opposed by anti-war activists. Among Democrats voting no were Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois." The Los Angeles Times notes that "in the end, just 86 Democrats in the House voted for the Iraq war-funding package, with 140 Democrats voting against it." The New York Times notes the bill does require "the Iraqi government to meet a series of benchmarks as a condition of receiving further American reconstruction aid."

The Washington Times also refers to "the Democratic leadership's painful defeat in challenging...Bush on war policy." The Washington Post reports, "War opponents dismissed the bill as a capitulation to Bush and said they would seek to hold supporters in both parties accountable." The AP says Democrats bowed "to President Bush," and the Wall Street Journal calls the "months of emotional debate" on the bill "a lesson in both power sharing and patience for the new Democratic majority." The Washington Post recounts that with "its members gathered in her office," Speaker Pelosi "told the House's 'Progressive Caucus' that she would vote against the war funding bill, but that she also had no choice but to facilitate its passage."

But the Washington Post says Bush yesterday may have been "savoring what may be a last victory in his battle with Congress over the course of the war in Iraq," as public opinion and even some in his own party may desert him next time around. McClatchy says that "by September, Congress will have fresh official reports on whether the troop increase is curbing violence there and whether the Iraqi government is making progress on national reconciliation."

Bill Hikes Minimum Wage USA Today reports Congress passed "a measure Thursday to increase the federal minimum wage for the first time in a decade. The increase is part of the $120 billion war funding bill that President Bush has said he will sign." The AP says "Bush was expected to sign the bill quickly, and workers who now make $5.15 an hour will see their paychecks go up by 70 cents per hour before the end of the summer. Another 70 cents will be added next year, and by summer 2009, all minimum-wage jobs will pay no less than $7.25 an hour." The New York Times notes Pelosi "said the increase was overdue."

Support For War At All-Time Low The New York Times reports a new New York Times/CBS News poll shows Americans "now view the war in Iraq more negatively than at any time since the invasion more than four years ago." Sixty-one percent of Americans now "say the United States should have stayed out of Iraq." However, "the majority of Americans support continuing to finance the war as long as the Iraqi government meets specific goals." The CBS Evening News led its broadcast with the poll, "The American public has never been more pessimistic about the war in Iraq than it is tonight. A CBS News/ New York Times poll is just out, and 76 percent of respondents believe the war is going badly."

Bush Embracing Iraq Study Group?

All three network newscasts last night led their broadcast with coverage of President Bush's news conference, which also was a top story in the major daily newspapers. Most reports focus on the President's warning that Americans should expect Iraqi insurgents to step up attacks during the Summer -- in order to influence the US debate come September -- and on Bush's statement that once Baghdad is secured, he envisions a different role for US troops. The Los Angeles Times reports the President "for the first time adopted the blueprint outlined in December by the Iraq Study Group, saying he envisioned US troops gradually moving out of their combat role and into support and training functions." The CBS Evening News reported, "Resolute as he appears, the President hinted strongly at a backup Plan B, modeled on last year's Baker-Hamilton report. It would call for more regional diplomatic contact, as well as a drawdown and repurposing of US troops away from policing sectarian violence."

NBC Nightly News reported that the President "said again today September is decision time, when the US reassesses its position in Iraq." And USA Today notes Bush said terrorists will try to "kill as many innocent people as they can to try to influence the debate here at home." The New York Times runs a similar report.

As usual, the President was adamant on Iraq's role as a central front in the war on terror -- prompting skeptical commentary by several media outlets. NBC Nightly News reported that the President "dismissed critics who challenged his judgment, particularly about the threat posed by al Qaeda in Iraq." And in a CBS Evening News "reality check" segment, political analyst Jeff Greenfield said, "The argument that we fight them there so we don't fight them here may have political clout, but it also represents a striking retreat from the original case for the war." Instead of "arguing for the good things that would happen if America were to act, the argument now seems to be based on the dreadful things that would happen if America leaves."

In his "Washington Sketch" column for the Washington Post, Dana Milbank writes, "It happened midway through his news conference in the Rose Garden yesterday morning, in between his 10th and 11th mentions of al-Qaeda: A bird flew over the president and deposited a wet, white dropping on the upper left sleeve of his jacket. Bush wiped the mess off with his bare hand." While "there was no evidence that Osama bin Laden was responsible for this particular attack...just about everything else that came up during the hour-long news conference was traced to bin Laden's terrorist network."

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Immigration Deal Survives, Barely

McClatchy says the Senate voted 66-29 to keep means for legalization of more than 12 million undocumented immigrants in the compromise immigration bill. And by "whisker-thin margins," the Senate rejected, 49-48, an amendment "to end a proposed guest-worker program after five years." Also by 49-48, the Senate voted "to allow any federal, state or local law enforcement official to question individuals about their immigration status." The Washington Times says that amendment was defeated only after Sen. Ted Kennedy "talked Sen. Daniel K. Akaka, Hawaii Democrat, into switching his vote, and the amendment failed 49-48." But the New York Times says the easily defeated legalization amendment was the "most significant challenge to the comprehensive immigration bill now under debate." In its coverage of President Bush's press conference, the Times quoted Bush saying of the sheer volume of 12 million illegal immigrants, "'You can't kick them out.' That solution is 'just not real.'"

The Christian Science Monitor says, "By week's end, the bill's defenders expect to have an idea of whether their 'grand bargain' will hold and then they'll head home on Memorial Day break to meet the backlash face to face." And as the Wall Street Journal writes, with lawmakers about to "go home for a week, groups on both sides of the immigration debate were planning lobbying campaigns." The latest New York Times /CBS News poll finds "broad support among Americans -- Democrats, Republicans and independents alike -- for the major provisions in the legislation. ... Point by point, large majorities expressed support for measures in the legislation that has been under debate since Monday in the Senate." However, the Washington Times, under the headline "Phones Busy, Fervor High On Immigration Overhaul," notes the high volume of calls against the bill received by Senate offices.

A number of reports emphasize the divisions within the GOP over the issue. The Financial Times reports, "If there were ever an instance where the primary election process could wreak havoc with a party's broader electability, many believe US Republicans are demonstrating it in their increasingly bitter internal battle over immigration reform. ... One measure of how tough it will be for Mr Bush to push this bill through is the number of Republicans who are turning against it." For instance, GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney said on Fox News' Your World, "I want to encourage legal immigrants. Legal immigrants bring great vitality, culture, technology to our country, they are welcome. But illegal immigration threatens that." And on CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight, GOP Sen. Jim Bunning said, "The President can't be right every time, and on this issue he is on the wrong side."

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, one of the White House's chief negotiators of the plan, defended the legislation on MSNBC's Tucker, saying, "This is not amnesty. We define amnesty as an unconditional pardon. This is not an unconditional pardon. ... People have to come forward and pay a fine. They have to undergo a criminal background check, which means that they may not get legalization. So it is not amnesty. And there is no automatic path to citizenship."

H-1B Visa, Employer Verification Spark Debate The Washington Post reports that "as the emotionally charged issue of immigration" holds center stage, "skilled foreign professionals are almost as contentious a part of the restructuring debate as impoverished illegal immigrants who sneak across the Mexican border to harvest crops or hang drywall." The bill "would increase the ceiling" on new H-1B highly skilled professional visas, "which allow one- to six-year stays, from 65,000 to 115,000 a year. More important, it would shift the historic emphasis in U.S. immigration law from family-reunification to educational and skill levels in determining who is eligible for permanent residency." Meanwhile, USA Today says the immigration bill "that the Senate is now debating, as well as a bipartisan measure that has been introduced in the House, both contain provisions that would require every person in the country who applies for a job -- no matter where they were born and whether or not they are citizens -- to demonstrate they are eligible to work" in the US.

Bush Still Has "Confidence" In Gonzales

At one end of Pennsylvania Avenue, there's confidence in Attorney General Alberto Gonzales; at the other, not so much. During his Rose Garden press conference, President Bush "reaffirmed his confidence" in his longtime associate, the New York Times reports, not long before Senate Democrats "offered a resolution declaring that they have no confidence" in the AG. Bush "noted that the Justice Department is conducting its own internal investigation of possible improprieties related to the dismissals of United States attorneys last year." Bush said, "This will be an exhaustive investigation. And if there's wrongdoing, it will be taken care of." In fact, the Los Angeles Times says DOJ has broadened that internal probe. The AP says the brief Senate resolution reads, "It is the sense of the Senate that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales no longer holds the confidence of the Senate and of the American people." Sen. Charles Schumer "predicted the resolution would win at least the 60 votes required to beat a filibuster."

Meanwhile, newspapers continued to dissect former DOJ official Monica Goodling's Wednesday Capitol Hill testimony. The Washington Post says Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a former US attorney himself, said the conversation with Gonzales that Goodling spoke of "reminded him of previous allegations that Justice Department officials had attempted to influence witnesses in the prosecutor firings." The Christian Science Monitor notes "internal Justice Department documents released in conjunction with Goodling's appearance provided some fresh details about the unease that arose quickly at high levels of the department after last year's firings became public." A December 2006 e-mail from White House lawyer Christopher Oprison read, "Looks like this is going to get messy."

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

'93 Lessons Shape Clinton Health Plan

Sen. Hillary Clinton has again entered the politically dangerous waters of health care reform, announcing a set of new policies yesterday aimed at reducing the cost of health care for Americans. The Chicago Tribune reports that for Clinton, "the problems of the American health care system have been a political danger zone since she unsuccessfully tackled the issue as first lady in the early 1990s." On Thursday, in a speech at George Washington University, Clinton "returned to the complicated and contentious topic, acknowledging mistakes and promising that she had learned from the experience." Clinton proposed to rein in "health care costs, a problem affecting virtually everyone in the United States. Two other proposals are in the offing - one to improve the quality of health care and the other to insure all Americans." These ideas "represent the senator's best effort to confront the fact that to many of her doubters, Clinton's 1993-94 health reform push represents much of what they dislike about her -- an imperiousness, a belief in big government and a seeming certainty that she knows best."

The New York Times reports Clinton, "who endured a major political setback as first lady when she tried to promote universal health care, revived that crusade yesterday but in a more measured way, offering a plan to reduce costs, through programs like disease prevention, to make universal coverage affordable." Clinton said she "would reduce costs by allowing imports of cheaper drugs, more use of generic drugs and by having the government negotiate the prices of drugs covered under Medicare."

The Washington Post reports, "Fourteen years after the health-care policy debacle that she oversaw as first lady," Clinton, "deliberate and mindful of the political minefield she wandered into in that previous foray -- yesterday began an effort to reclaim the issue for her presidential campaign." With a "self-deprecating nod to being 'overly wonky,' Clinton said that, as a battle-scarred participant in the 1993 health-care overhaul failure, she understood the importance of devising workable solutions and building political support at the same time."

The Wall Street Journal (5/25, Meckler, 2.04M) reports Clinton suggested "a range of cost-cutting moves that she says would wring $120 billion of savings from insurance companies, drug makers and the rest of the health-care system." Laying the "groundwork for universal coverage, Mrs. Clinton proposed that insurers be required to sell coverage to anyone who wants it and said companies should be barred from charging sicker people higher premiums."

However, the New York Sun reports, "A health policy scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Joseph Antos, said many of Mrs. Clinton's estimates were 'more than overly optimistic.'" He also "said her plan would not actually be 'saving' money, if those funds were only going to be reinvested in new programs."

Giuliani, Clinton Hold Wide Leads

The newest CBS News /New York Times poll shows Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton on top of their respective primary fields. Giuliani leads the Republicans with 36%, followed by John McCain, 22%; and Mitt Romney, 15%. Giuliani's lead over McCain has dropped since last month, when he was up 47%-26%. On the Democratic side, Clinton has expanded her lead, and now pulls 46%, followed by Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards at 14%. A month ago, Clinton led Obama 39% to 26%. Clinton's 7 point gain appears to have come at the expense of Edwards, who lost 7 points in the most recent poll.

GOP Frontrunners Top Dems In PA

A new Allentown Morning Call /Muhlenberg College poll shows Rudy Giuliani and John McCain topping the top Democrats in general election trial heats. The poll, which had a small sample of 416 registered voters, shows Giuliani "with a solid lead over all three of the Democratic front-runners: seven points over Clinton, eight points over Obama and nine points over Edwards." McCain also "leads all three: eight points over Clinton, three points over Obama and six points over Edwards." The Morning Call adds that independent voters "choosing between Giuliani and Clinton favored the former mayor by more than two to one, with four in 10 still undecided. And 16 percent of Democrats said they preferred Giuliani, whereas only 7 percent of Republicans said they favored Clinton. Nearly one in five Democrats (18 percent) said they'd choose Giuliani over Obama, whereas 13 percent of Republicans said they'd make the opposite decision. McCain draws similar support among Democrats in head-to-heads with Obama and Clinton"

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "An embarrassing moment for President Bush today. Did you see that? At the press conference, somebody stood up and said, 'The American people don't believe you on the war.' Did you see this? They told the President, 'You've lost all your credibility, you completely screwed things up.' And then Bush said, 'Ma, geez!'"

Jay Leno: "Congratulations to Republican presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani. He celebrated a wedding anniversary today. He also has another one tomorrow and two on Monday if I'm not mistaken."

Jay Leno: "It's starting to get nasty out there on the campaign trail. A new book out by veteran Democratic strategist Robert Schrum claims that when asked about gay rights, John Edwards said he was not comfortable around those people. Now do you believe that? Come on. How does a guy who spends 400 bucks to get his hair styled not like gay people?"

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