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Monday, November 9, 2009
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Developments this weekend continue to pain the picture of an increasingly weakened chief executive. In a critical front-page article headlined "Ex-Aide Details A Loss Of Faith In The President," the New York Times reported Sunday former Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd "now says his faith" in President Bush "was misplaced. In a wide-ranging interview...Dowd called for a withdrawal from Iraq and expressed his disappointment in Mr. Bush's leadership." Dowd said of the President, "I really like him, which is probably why I'm so disappointed in things. I think he's become more, in my view, secluded and bubbled in." The Times says that in "speaking out, Mr. Dowd became the first member of Mr. Bush's inner circle to break so publicly with him. He said his decision to step forward had not come easily. But, he said, his disappointment in Mr. Bush's presidency is so great that he feels a sense of duty to go public given his role in helping Mr. Bush gain and keep power."
In a similar vein, the Washington Post reports that Vic Gold, "an old friend of the new president's father, having worked with George H.W. Bush on his campaigns and co-written his autobiography," was also close to the Cheneys and participated in the planning of the current president's inauguration. Now he is getting ready for the publication of a book in which he claims under Bush and Cheney "the GOP has moved away from principles of small government, prudent foreign policy and leaving people alone to live their private lives -- all views Gold associates with his hero, Goldwater."
And US News and World Report's "Washington Whispers" column notes, "We're just a month away from what could be the biggest storm yet over who knew what before 9/11 and about those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, as former CIA Director George Tenet finally tells of those troubled days. We hear vaguely that in At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA, out April 30, Tenet takes responsibility for intelligence shortcomings but also isn't shy about naming officials in the Bush and Clinton administrations who share in the blame. ... His P.R. rollout includes a rare two-segment 60 Minutes appearance, a magazine deal, the Today Show, and Meet the Press."
The Christian Science Monitor says this morning, "On an almost daily basis, it seems, signs are emerging that the well-oiled Bush machine of the early days is anything but that in the final quarter of George W. Bush's presidency." The President "is suffering the slings and arrows that often beset second-term presidents." But "because of the intractable nature of the increasingly unpopular Iraq war, his chances of political recovery are slimmer than were those of the most recent presidents to serve two full terms, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, analysts say." The Monitor adds, "Why does the White House appear to be in such disarray? The easy answer is the Iraq war."
With Congress on recess, both parties stepped up their campaigns to win the PR battle over the Iraq funding bill. Over the weekend, the Washington Times said that House and Senate negotiators "won't meet to hammer out a final emergency war-funding bill until Congress' spring break ends April 16 -- a day after Pentagon officials say money starts running out for U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan." Yesterday, the Washington Post reported "a delay in billions of dollars of supplemental war funding for the Pentagon would cause the Army to curtail training and equipment repair necessary to prepare units in the United States for deployment, which could lead forces now in Iraq and Afghanistan to have their tours lengthened, according to the nation's top general and other senior military officials." The Los Angeles Times ran a similar report. But a New York Times story noted the Congressional Research Service "has estimated that the Army has enough budget flexibility to pay for its military operations through July in the event that a standoff between the White House and Congress over Iraq holds up the money the administration says it needs for the war effort. ... Democrats quickly seized on the findings by the service."
Yesterday, the debate continued on the morning political shows. Republicans accused Democrats of leaving town without finishing their work. White House counselor Dan Bartlett told ABC's This Week, "It's been 55 days since the President has put forward this wartime supplemental bill" and the Congress goes "on a two-week break for Easter...at a time when our troops need the funding. The President thinks they ought to be here...reconciling these differences, [to] get us a bill that doesn't handcuff our generals on the ground." Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, on Fox News Sunday, said Army chief of staff Gen. Peter Schoomaker sent him a letter "indicating that severe consequences would follow not having the bill by April, by mid-April, mid to late April. So what needs to happen here is the House of Representatives needs to come back a week early. We need to get the conference report on the money for the troops bill down to the president so it can be vetoed."
But Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden, also on Fox News Sunday, claimed he is "not so sure the President is going to veto" the Iraq spending bill. Biden added, "If he's going to veto, he's going to veto a position that the vast majority of the American people hold." And Sen. Richard Durbin, on ABC's This Week, noted, "Last year, when the President submitted this same request, in February, the Republican Congress responded in the middle of June. You didn't hear one comment from the White House about how this was going to endanger the troops."
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, another Democrat, told CNN's Late Edition that Congress should "stick to our guns." As the Washington Post said Saturday, "Democrats are not flinching in their opposition. Every time Congress has voted on Iraq this year, Democrats have picked up a little more support to set timelines for bringing troops home. ... Much of the gain for the Democrats came from their most conservative members."
Obama The Maverick? But even as Democrats vowed to stand firm, Sen. Barack Obama appeared to break with his party on the issue. In an interview with the AP, Obama said that if Bush vetoes the measure, "Congress quickly will provide the money without the withdrawal timeline the White House objects to because no lawmaker 'wants to play chicken with our troops.'"
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In addition to Iraq and the US Attorney controversy, increasingly confident Democrats may be getting ready to take on the White House on other issues. The Washington Post reports this morning that "emboldened congressional Democrats" will challenge the President "on a range of issues -- such as unionization of airport security workers and the loosening of presidential secrecy orders -- with even more dramatic showdowns coming soon." Democrats may even launch "politically risky efforts to quickly close the prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; reinstate legal rights for terrorism suspects; and rein in what Democrats see as unwarranted encroachments on privacy and civil liberties allowed by the USA Patriot Act." The Wall Street Journal, however, says "Washington is at a tipping point between Democratic calls for 'A New Direction' in government and the need for Congress and the White House to show results soon." The Iraq war debate "consumes time and energy, and if the year only produces Senate stalemate and White House veto fights, it will seem a very 'Old Direction' to independent voters who helped Democrats win control in the 2006 elections and put a priority on bipartisan results."
The Washington Post's "In the Loop" column, meanwhile, reports Rep. Henry A. Waxman, chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, "has been trying to get" Condoleezza Rice "to answer questions about the administration's bogus claims that Iraq wanted to buy uranium from Niger, how it handled classified information and hired a guy under federal criminal investigation, and other matters." Waxman also has "called in" former Karl Rove aide Susan B. Ralston "for a little deposition on Thursday" to "chat with her about...what actions White House officials may have taken to benefit" former lobbyist Jack Abramoff "and his pals." Roll Call and the Washington Times also report on upcoming confrontation between Congress and the Administration.
The White House and Senate Democrats jousted Sunday over the date of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' testimony before the Judiciary Committee, with the Bush Administration calling for a hearing sooner than the scheduled April 17 date and Democrats resisting a change. On ABC's This Week, Senior Counselor to the President Dan Bartlett said, "The Democrats in Congress could send a very clear signal that they want to set aside partisan politics" by moving up the hearing. And on CBS's Face the Nation, GOP Sen. Arlen Specter said his "preference" would be to have Gonzales testify at the "earliest possible date." But USA Today reports Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy said the Attorney General "was offered earlier dates but chose April 17." Asked on NBC's Meet the Press if he thinks Gonzales lied to the Senate, Leahy said, "I believe he has not been accurate. And I believe he has not been truthful."
The inside the Beltway publication The Politico analyzes the Democrats' reluctance to move up Gonzales' appearance. Democrats "plan to use the interim to build a case against" Gonzales. The Politico says "one of the mysteries of the administration's handling of the controversy over the firings of eight US attorneys is why the attorney general has let more than two weeks pass without going to Capitol Hill. As a result, Bush and his spokespeople are constantly asked about the matter, as congressional Democrats sharpen their knives, and as Gonzales' friends and subordinates report increasing disillusionment and frustration." The AP says the effort to speed up the calendar "reflected the frustration by Republican senators and the White House over how long it is taking the embattled attorney general to explain himself under oath. Congress has just begun a vacation -- one week for the Senate, two for the House." And "in a sign of Gonzales' diminished standing on Capitol Hill," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offered only "lukewarm support" for Gonzales. Asked on Fox News Sunday if he has confidence in the Attorney General, McConnell said, "I can honestly say the President does. ... I think most Republican senators are willing to give the Attorney General a chance to come up before the Judiciary Committee and give his side of the story." The Los Angeles Times also summarizes the Sunday talk show discussion of Gonzales.
Newsweek, meanwhile, reports "new disclosures in the U.S. attorney controversy have increased the pressure on White House aide Karl Rove. Attorney General Gonzales's ex-chief of staff, D. Kyle Sampson, testified last week that 'during the run-up to the midterm elections,' the A.G. told him Rove had 'complained' that David Iglesias, the U.S. attorney in New Mexico, and two other federal prosecutors, were not doing enough to prosecute voter fraud. .. Justice was also forced to correct its earlier assertion that Rove did not play 'any role' in replacing the U.S. attorney in Little Rock. Sampson's e-mails showed he had described the replacement as 'important to...Karl.' Senate Judiciary Committee chair Sen. Patrick Leahy warned the White House that even a Gonzales resignation would not 'short-circuit' his probe, vowing to block confirmation hearings for any successor unless he gets Rove under oath."
US News and World Report's "Washington Whispers" column reports, "Susan McDougal, the bit player of the Clinton-era Whitewater scandal, is making a comeback. We hear that Hollywood producers are looking at making a story of her life. ... Moviemakers like Paul Haggis of Oscar winners Crash and Million Dollar Baby were in Little Rock last week scouting locations, and word is that Charlize Theron is their McDougal choice."
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Sen. Hillary Clinton has released her first quarter fundraising totals, and they are historic: the former First Lady brought in $26 million in the first quarter, which the CBS Evening News says "shattered the old record of just under $9 million raised by Al Gore some 12 years ago." In addition, Clinton transferred $10 million to her presidential campaign from her Senate campaign fund. The Washington Times reports Clinton "raised $4.2 million through the Internet and an additional $1.8 million through direct mail and telemarketing."
The New York Times adds that former Senator John Edwards "raised over $14 million, about twice what he raised in the same quarter for his 2004 presidential race." New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson "raised $6 million." Sen. Christopher Dodd "raised $4 million." Sen. Joseph Biden "raised $3 million." The Times notes that Obama's campaign "said it was not ready to disclose its results, suggesting he may have a big announcement in store. ... Obama's decision to wait may be a signal that his campaign hopes to make a splash of its own with an unexpectedly rich quarter." According to the Chicago Tribune, Obama "is expected to report that he has raised more than $20 million for his presidential bid during the same period, the first quarter of this year, according to three sources in and around his campaign."
On NBC Nightly News John Harwood, CNBC's Washington correspondent, said, "Hilary Clinton remains the frontrunner in this Democratic race in every respect including financially but she has got a tougher race then most people had expected. We don't have the number from Barack Obama but we expect it to top 20 million dollars with him reporting more donors and perhaps more room to grow as he is narrowing her lead in the polls. John Edwards is still ahead in Iowa and appears on track as well to have enough money to compete and remember the goal in fundraising is not to beat your opponent but to have enough to get your message out and run a viable campaign." The Washington Post reports, "Clinton's rivals said the figure, while eye-popping, is not enough to shut other contenders out of the race, as the Clinton campaign hoped to do."
Actual Primary Cash Situation Not Clear Despite the big dollars raised, it is not clear at this point where the candidates actually stand financially. The AP says Clinton aides "would not reveal how much of her total was available only for the primary election and how much could be used just in the general election. ... By not breaking down the amount available for the primaries, the Clinton camp made it impossible to assess how much of an edge she actually has over Edwards. Edwards' aides said about $1 million of his $14 million in contributions could only be used in the general election." Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson, in USA Today this morning, "said that 'considerably more' of the $26 million raised this year is for the primaries, but the breakdown isn't tabulated yet." Additionally, Bloomberg notes that neither Edwards nor Clinton has a figure for actual cash-on-hand, further clouding the fundraising picture.
Top Republicans Expected To Report Less Than $20 Million Raised CNBC's John Harwood, on NBC Nightly News, reported that "we don't have a number from any of these nervous Republican candidate campaigns yet but we expect that John McCain, Rudy Giuliani the two leaders in the polls will be under $20 million -- that's an opening for Mitt Romney if he can do better than that, might kick start his campaign after bruises he has taken for flip flops over the past few months."
Rudy Giuliani suffered through a weekend of negative press coverage centered around his ties to Bernie Kerik, his former police commissioner who is expected to be indicted for corruption and whom he recommended to the Bush Administration to be nominated to head the Department of Homeland Security. For example, the New York Times reports Giuliani, "buffeted once again by bad news about his disgraced former police commissioner," said he "should have looked more closely" into Kerik's background "and acknowledged that it may cause voters to question his judgment." Giuliani said, "I think I should have done a better job of investigating him, vetting him, however you want to describe that. It's my responsibility, and I've learned from it. I'll make sure that I do a much better job of checking into people in the future." Asked how Kerik's "troubles might influence voters' views of Mr. Giuliani as he runs for president, he said: 'People have a right to question my judgment. They have a right to question everything about me. And then they have to look at the things that I've done that were successful, the things I think that I've done that are right, and the mistakes they think I've made.'"
On its front page on Saturday, the Washington Post reports federal prosecutors told Kerik "that he is likely to be charged with several felonies, including tax evasion and conspiracy to commit wiretapping. Kerik's indictment could set the stage for a courtroom battle that would draw attention to Kerik's extensive business and political dealings" with Giuliani, "who personally recommended him to President Bush for the Cabinet." Giuliani himself "is not in any legal jeopardy, according to legal sources directly familiar with the investigation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the inquiry is ongoing. He and his consulting firm have cooperated in the FBI's long-running investigation of Kerik."
A similarly harsh report for Giuliani ran on NBC Nightly News on Friday, which reported that the former mayor, "not a stranger to the spotlight, got a taste of intense and harsh media scrutiny today. At issue, what he knew and when he knew it about his controversial friend and tainted former city police chief." NBC: "In Republican circles, it's long been feared that Bernard Kerik is the largest skeleton in Rudy Giuliani's closet. ... Back in 2000, then-Mayor Giuliani was briefed about Kerik's possible ties to a company accused of having links to organized crime, before Giuliani named Kerik police commissioner. Kerik last summer admitted he allowed the company to provide free renovations to his apartment. ... Giuliani said he doesn't remember any briefing regarding Kerik's business ties."
Sen. John McCain, once the darling of the national political media for his "straight talk," is having a much rougher go of it as he tours Baghdad claiming the surge strategy is making progress and the media is not fully covering its success. The Washington Times /AP called McCain "combative" for insisting, "The American people are not getting the full picture of what's happening here. They're not getting the full picture of the drop in murders, the establishment of security outposts throughout the city, the situation in Anbar province, the deployment of additional Iraqi brigades which are performing well, and other signs of progress having been made." But that's about as positive the coverage of McCain's trip would get. The New York Times, for example, titles its story "4 G.I.'s Among Dead In Iraq; McCain Cites Progress," and describes McCain's comments to reporters as "sometimes testy," and the Washington Post reports, "After a heavily guarded walk through a newly fortified Baghdad market, Sen. John McCain declared that the American public was not getting 'a full picture' of the progress unfolding in Iraq." In a similar story, the Los Angeles Times (4/2, King, 850K) reports, "Amid the latest bloodshed," McCain "visited Baghdad today and insisted to journalists that tangible improvements in the security situation in Iraqi capital were being underemphasized in news reports."
ABC World News reported, "This is the face of Baghdad that John McCain wants America to see. Riding the carousel in Zawhra Park." McCain: "Things are better and there are encouraging signs." But "there's another side of Baghdad, counting the dead from last Thursday's bombing in Shaab market. Six weeks into the surge of US troops into Baghdad, parts of the city are still running with blood. Shiite death squads have reduced their killings. But Sunni suicide bombers have stepped up their attacks." Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Institution: "Today's comments" by McCain "verge a little bit on happy talk which is not totally supportable by the evidence." NBC Nightly News reported that McCain "was in Baghdad and was escorted by heavily armed troops to a downtown market. He then insisted a US-Iraqi security crackdown on the capital is working." NBC added, "The US military, which provided still pictures, told NBC News the market was a 3 minute drive directly across the Tigris river, from the Green Zone. And that McCain's delegation was guarded by more than 100 American soldiers with three Blackhawk helicopters and two Apache gun ships overhead."
A new poll of Florida voters out this morning from Quinnipiac University shows Rudy Giuliani holding a wide lead over potential opponents in both the GOP primary and in general election trial heats. Giuliani leads the GOP field with 35%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 11%. Fred Thompson comes in with 6%, followed closely by Mitt Romney with 5%. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton also holds a commanding lead with 36%, followed by Al Gore at 16% and Barack Obama at 13%. John Edwards places 4th with 11%.
In general election match ups, Giuliani leads Clinton 50%-40% and also tops Edwards by the same amount. The poll also shows Giuliani leading Obama by a wider margin, 52%-36%. In general, the Democrats run much stronger against McCain he tops Clinton only 45%-44% and trails Edwards 43%-41%. However, McCain still leads Obama by a fairly wide margin 45%-39%.
NBC Nightly News reported, "There is a new entry in the 2008 presidential race. Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson joined the crowded field of Republicans. Thompson also served as Health and Human Services Secretary during President Bush's first term." Thompson, on ABC's This Week, said, "I have been spending all my time in Iowa and some time in New Hampshire and South Carolina, but I really got an Iowa strategy, and I've been in Iowa every single week since the first week in December. I've been visiting individuals and groups and talking to people every single week, and I've been into over 30 counties, one-third of the counties, and over 100 communities, and it's really looking good. ... In Iowa the polls last week came out that I was in fifth place and moving up and at five percent. So I'm telling you, things are starting to coalesce and I feel very, very optimistic about my future."
USA Today says Thompson entered the race "with an assertion that he fills two voids in the Republican field: He is 'the reliable conservative' and he has creative ideas. ... Asked how he would differ from Bush, Thompson outlined a three-part Iraq plan. The first part would be a vote on continued U.S. presence by Iraqi legislators, and withdrawal if they vote against it. Iraq's 18 provinces would elect local leaders, and oil revenues would be divided as they are in Alaska -- one-third given to the federal government, one-third given to the territorial governments and one-third passed directly to citizens." The AP reports Thompson "joined the crowded field of Republicans running for the White House in 2008 and proclaimed himself the 'reliable conservative' in the race." Thompson "said he is the only GOP candidate who has helped assemble both a state and federal budget." Thompson "has focused his strategy on Iowa, which holds the nation's first caucuses for presidential nominees. He has made weekly visits to the state and sought to make the case that it will take a candidate who can carry the Midwest to win the nomination."
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Jay Leno: "Sunday, of course, is April Fool's Day, or as they call it in Washington, President's Day."
David Letterman: "President Bush has big April Fool's Day plans. He's going to call Alberto Gonzalez and tell him he's doing a heck of a job."
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