Political Bulletin

WASHINGTON NEWS

Divided Democrats Give Ground On Iraq

Media reports this morning suggest Democratic divisions on Iraq are keeping the caucus from moving forward with a plan to challenge the President's "surge" strategy. The Los Angeles Times, under the headline "War Bill Divides Democrats," reports this morning that Democratic lawmakers, "who earlier this month nearly unanimously backed resolutions condemning President Bush's plans to boost troop levels in Iraq, are struggling to agree on what to do next in their drive to bring the war to an end." The "apparent deceleration of the legislative drive to end the war is dismaying antiwar activists." McClatchy says Democrats are "nervous about cutting off money in a way that could undermine soldiers who already are in Iraq - or expose Democrats to Republican charges that they're doing that."

Fox News' Special Report reported, "The Democrats ambitious plans...are faltering amidst party divisions over how quickly and aggressively they should act." Senate Democrats "are so divided over whether to deny funds for President Bush's troop surge -- while others want to revoke authorization for the war, and still others don't want to do either that the party now finds its antiwar efforts visibly hobbled." The Hill says Senate Democrats "reversed course yesterday and vowed to keep the Iraq war out of the ongoing 9/11 Commission bill debate, but the lack of a consensus approach exposed by the new majority's move risks alienating anti-war allies and giving political momentum to Republicans."

In the House, the Washington Post reports Democratic leaders "offered a full-throated defense Tuesday night of their plans to link Iraq war spending with rigorous standards for resting, training and equipping combat troops, saying that they would hold President Bush accountable for failing to meet those readiness tests." The AP reports, "House Democratic leaders are backing away from a plan to scale back US involvement in the Iraq war by using Congress' most powerful tool--- withholding money in the budget." But "after a fractious meeting of the House Democratic caucus, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Democratic members still have not united around the proposal." Roll Call reports "aides said the House Democratic Caucus may hold a second meeting this week to further discuss the proposed spending bill."

The New York Times describes the Democratic Congress as "divided over strategy, stymied by ideological divisions, but still hoping to escalate pressure on the White House to change the course of the war." The Washington Times, meanwhile, reports congressional Democrats, "especially new members -- are clamoring for action on the Iraq war, citing polls showing that American voters want to change course, but leaders have delayed significant action."

The political insider website The Politico reports that Senate Democrats are "accusing their leaders of mismanaging the twin efforts to block...Bush's troop surge in Iraq and force a quicker end to the war." Reid "is facing criticism from both flanks of his party." Sen. Ben Nelson, "a conservative Democrat from Nebraska, said the new Democratic strategy could unfairly hamstring the president and military commanders." On the other end of the spectrum, Sen. Russ Feingold, "a liberal Democrat from Wisconsin, criticized the latest Democratic strategy as too timid and toothless in stopping the war."

"Surge" Meets With Mixed Reviews McClatchy reports "top US intelligence officials disclosed" that President Bush's planned "surge" of US troops is "running behind schedule and that all of the units sent so far have arrived under strength, some by more than half." Meanwhile top military officials "gave a mixed review on the early implementation of the plan." Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, "said the Iraqi military was 'good for the most part,' but uneven. Fox News Special Report noted that Sen. John Warner, identified as "a Republican critic of the surge," said Iraqi forces "just are not participating." Fox added that Defense Secretary Gates said he "will be able to assess pretty quickly if the Iraqis are living up to their commitments. ... In fact he says he may have more information by Thursday when he briefs members of Congress on Iraq in a closed door hearing." The New York Times, in an editorial, contends there is "no security from the security sweep in Baghdad, no visible movement to purge the Iraqi police of sectarian death squads and no effort by Washington to impose benchmarks on Iraq's leaders for achieving national unity."

Some Soldiers Lobby Congress To End War The New York Times reports that in a "small but growing sign of dissent, a group of active-duty military personnel and reservists, including many who have served in Iraq, is denouncing the war and asking Congress for the prompt withdrawal of troops." The 1,600-plus service members "have sent an Appeal for Redress to their Congressional representatives, a form of protest permitted by military rules."

Bush Threatens To Veto 9/11 Bill

The Washington Times reports Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told Republican senators that President Bush will veto legislation implementing measures recommended by the 9/11 Commission "if the bill is passed with language granting collective-bargaining rights" to Transportation Security Administration screeners. According to the AP, "Casting the provision as a deal-killer would flex Bush's political muscle with the new, Democratic-led Congress on the old battleground of labor rights. It also could throw an obstacle into talks over how to debate and pass the recommendations of the Sept. 11 Commission." The New York Times quotes Scott Stanzel, White House deputy press secretary, as saying, "Existing authority permits TSA the flexibility to manage and deploy their work force. ... We do think that it is important that TSA maintain that flexibility for personnel performing key homeland security roles."

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Is A Recession Coming?

Yesterday's stock market tumble is sparking fevered speculation among analysts on the health of the US economy. The Dow Jones yesterday dropped 416 points, and at some points in the day was over 500 points down. Some in the media took yesterday's downturn as evidence that the US economy may not be as robust as most economists and the White House have characterized it over the last year or so. Fox News Special Report reported senior White House officials "watched the market very closely," but they "insist the US economic fundamentals are still very strong, and they're very confident about that." However, as the markets closed President Bush spoke with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and relayed "a clear expression of concern" about the downturn. The Wall Street Journal says a "weaker-than-expected US economy could undermine many assumptions that have been underlying investors' embrace of risk. It could lead to higher defaults among companies that have taken on large amounts of debt. And it could undermine the outlook for foreign markets, which tend to depend far more on the US economy than the US depends on theirs." The New York Times headlines its story on losses in the US equities markets: "Wall St. Slide Fuels Worries On Economy," while McClatchy maintains "a steady stream of recent data shows mixed signals about where the US economy is headed," and claims Alan Greenspan "suggests recession could be looming."

The Los Angeles Times reports this morning that "the dreaded 'R' word -- recession -- is back in play, contributing to Tuesday's stock market plunge." However, "many analysts say recession is unlikely this year," and that "Tuesday's market sell-off was long-anticipated and would be short-lived as the economy rebounds from a housing slump." The Washington Post also reports "some analysts said...that it was about time for the market to cool after a breathless run-up in share prices." The Chicago Tribune runs a similar report.

Speculation as to the basis for yesterday's sell-off centered around concerns over the PRC's potential for market manipulation and what appear to be misinterpreted, or "over-interpreted," remarks made by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on the likelihood of a recession in the US, but many commentators also mentioned yesterday's Commerce Department durable goods report, as well as a host of underlying geopolitical tensions capable of upsetting international markets. The Wall Street Journal interprets yesterday's movement as proof that investors continue to heed predictions made by Greenspan, "a devotion some say makes it harder to concentrate on what his successor, Ben Bernanke, has to say." Greenspan "told an audience via satellite early Monday, Hong Kong time, that a US recession was possible," though he "didn't say a recession was likely." USA Today runs a similar report under the headline "Greenspan Comments Helped Grease Markets' Skid."

Blog Posters Regret Failed Cheney Attack.

The Washington Times reports in its "Inside Politics" column that the "liberal Huffington Post Web site (www.huffingtonpost.com) ran a wire story yesterday about the apparent attempt to assassinate Vice President Dick Cheney in Afghanistan. A number of its readers proceeded to make postings in which they expressed regret that the attack had not succeeded." Talk radio host Rush Limbaugh "read about a half-dozen of the foul postings on the air yesterday, and linked to the Huffington Post from his own Web site (www.rushlimbaugh.com). Not long afterward, the Huffington Post removed the most offensive of the missives."

Bush To Tout Education Reforms

The Louisville Courier-Journal reports President Bush on Friday "will visit New Albany's Silver Street Elementary School" in Indiana "in addition to attending a campaign fundraiser" in nearby Louisville, Kentucky. He also "plans to meet with University of Louisville students." At Silver Street, Bush will "discuss his 'No Child Left Behind' program." Bush will later "speak at a McConnell for Senate reception at the Seelbach Hilton Louisville." The AP says Bush "will visit an elementary school in New Albany on Friday and will speak about reauthorizing the five-year-old No Child Left Behind law."

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CAMPAIGN NEWS

A Sliding Clinton And A Surging Giuliani Continue To Lead In New Polls

A new ABC World News /Washington Post poll shows Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Hillary Clinton leading their respective presidential primaries, but the two are apparently on opposite trajectories. Giuliani leads the GOP field with 44%, followed by Sen. John McCain with 21%. A month ago, Giuliani led McCain by a much narrower margin just 34%-27%. Running in third in the current poll with 15%, in what is perhaps a sign of GOP dissatisfaction with the current field, is Newt Gingrich, who has not made a serious move toward entering the race. However, 53% of those who backed Gingrich in the poll would back Giuliani if the former Speaker did not make the race.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama has taken a bite out of Clinton's lead. Clinton now leads with 36%, followed by Obama, 24%, Al Gore, 14%, and John Edwards, 12%. A month ago, Clinton led Obama 41%-17%. If Gore doesn't make the race, however, Clinton picks up 43% of his backers while Obama gets 27%.

Second Poll Shows New Yorkers On Top, But More Narrowly New polling data out from Zogby International also shows Clinton and Giuliani on top of their respective primary fields. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Obama 33% to 25%, while on the GOP side, Giuliani leads McCain 29% to 20%.

Obama Outperforms Hillary In General Election The Zogby polling data also shows Obama doing significantly better than Clinton in trial general election match ups. Clinton trails Giuliani 47%-40%, and also trails McCain, 47%-39%. However, Obama would lead both GOP frontrunners 44%-40% over McCain and 46%-40% over Giuliani.

Poll Suggest Pennsylvania Very Much In Play Continuing the barrage of polls this morning, a new Philadelphia Daily News /Keystone poll shows McCain and Giuliani leading both Clinton and Obama in "blue" Pennsylvania in trial heats. McCain leads Clinton, 45%-41%, and Obama, 43%-37%. Giuliani thrashes both Democrats the poll has him over Clinton 53%-37% and over Obama 52%-32%.

Gore Really Green?

The AP reports this morning that Al Gore, whose anti-global warming crusade has thrust him back into the national spotlight, "is being called a hypocrite by a conservative group that claims his Nashville mansion uses too much electricity." Following his Oscar win on Sunday, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research "put out a news release saying Gore was not doing enough to reduce his own consumption of electricity. The group disputes whether global warming is a serious problem." For their 10,000-square foot home, the Gores "used about 191,000 kilowatt hours in 2006, according to bills reviewed by The Associated Press spanning the period from Feb. 3, 2006, to Jan. 5. That is far more than the typical Nashville household, which uses about 15,600 kilowatt-hours per year." However, a spokeswoman for Gore "said the former vice president invests in enough renewable energy to make up for the home's power consumption."

Republicans Pushing Huckabee To Challenge Pryor

The DC publication The Hill reports this morning that some Republicans are pushing former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) to drop his "long-shot" presidential campaign and stay home and challenge Sen. Mark Pryor (D) instead. Observers say Arkansas is "often listed among the top Republican pickup opportunities in the country, but Huckabee is the only Republican who matches up to Pryor and there are no comparable alternatives, observers say." The Hill adds that one state GOP source "familiar with Huckabee's campaign said a Senate bid could indeed materialize and that it's something Huckabee has considered and analyzed."

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POLITICAL HUMOR

The Latest From Late Night Comedians

Jay Leno: "Quick question -- how many of you have money in the stock market? Not anymore!"

Jay Leno: "Actually, the drop started after the attempted assassination on Vice President Dick Cheney. See, that's when investors realized if anything happened to him, President Bush would be in charge."

Conan O'Brien: "Well, Tom Vilsack, of course, dropped out. Since former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack dropped out of the presidential race four days ago, Vilsack supporters are divided about which candidate to support now. Yeah. Apparently, one guy likes Obama; the other guy's backing Hillary."

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